OPEN LETTER TO MY FRIENDS

Dear friends,
It's that time of the year to take stock of our Democracy; To look at the State of our Nation and to assess progress.

The 'established' myth suggests the Jonathan Presidency to be 2 years old. The truth is, in January 2014, i.e. in 8 months, Pres Jonathan will have been Acting (with full powers) or substantive President for 4 years. His Govt will and should be assessed against this backdrop.

While Ghana has grown its effective power generating capacity by 60% Nigeria's has only managed 40%. Today, Ghanaians enjoy on average 100W per person, Nigerians, on the other hand, make do with less than 40W. By 2015, Ghana is on course to more than triple its pre-2010 capacity, while the most optimistic forecast is for Nigeria to double it output.* Not only does Ghana have a higher output per capita, it is growing it faster than Nigeria. Ghana does not have a "transformation agenda", it simply has visionary leaders and good governance!

To assess the Govt, let's look at what they said last year

1. Zungeru
President Jonathan said "We are also building about 4000km of transmission lines and hundreds of substations. We have completed the design for the construction of both Mambilla and Zungeru Hydro power plants which will add about 3,000 MW to the national grid".
Leaving aside the question of "where are promised the transmission lines and why did it take so long for Manitoba to commence?". Nigerians are intrigued as to why the Govt waited to the last possible day, today, to perform the sod turning ceremony on Zungeru. Why has it taken over a year to go from completed design to even laying the first stone. Is it a cynical attempt to showcase progress, any progress!?$!tomorrow? Is this a case of extreme slow motion? Nigerians will be elated If this dam functions as efficiently as the dam which prevents the flow and implementation of genuine poverty reducing ideas from this govt. *

2. Corruption
"I want to reassure all Nigerians that this administration remains committed to waging a sustained battle against the menace of corruption.".
To the contrary, corruption continues to strive. The sustained battle has been provide immunity from justice for indicted individuals. Today, not a single conviction has been reached with the multi-billion dollar fuel subsidy scam likewise the pension fund fraud. In November 2012, this govt asked a committee (made up of ministers) to produce a white-paper, in 2 weeks, on the Ribadu Report (Petroleum Revenue Special Task Force). This report is 26-weeks late.
To Jonathan, fighting corruption means focusing on granting pardons to a corruption ex-convict who has a case to answer in the UK.* This is further betrayal of the Nigerian people from he stole. Jonathan's undisguised disdain for the anti-corruption fight is all to obvious as seen by the silence and lack of reaction to the conviction of ex-Gov Ibori and subsequent 13-year sentence for corruption which took place in Nigeria.

3. Democracy/Free and fair elections
"..with a promise that under my watch, the elections would be free, fair and credible."
Not only does the ruling party, which Jonathan leads, condone electoral malpractice, it has chosen a self-confessed "rigger" to head one of its forum. Obviously, rigging is not an anti-party activity. Today, ruling party spares no effort to turn democracy and the principle of majority rule on its head as evidenced by the recent NGF elections. He leads a govt that is increasingly criticism and legitimate dissent. A party which comes up with trumped-up charges against elected officials. A patronage party!
The narrative of this govt is the narrative of "Jack and Jill". This govt is only interested in the narrative Jack and Jill went up the hill but gets incensed when it is reminded there as a fall, a broken crown and tumbling after, which perfectly describes this Govt.
This govt has also been intolerant of free speech. A notable reference is the mudsling at Mrs Ezekwesili for simply demanding accountability. Till date, Govt has refused her debate challenge.

4. Economy,
Tomorrow, various economic figures and indices will be quoted. We will hear the "economy is growing", "this agency approves of us...". What will not be said is "...you, Mr average Nigerian is growing and life's getting better". You will not hear "you pay less for food now than last year, paid less for fuel, rent, school fees, and medical fees". Jonathan won't even say cassava bread is cheaper. He will talk about the foreign reserve, lower inflation etc. But he will not talk about you!!!
So why is Nigeria's economy growing and not yours? Simple. Because the economies of this govt's cronies and corruption are growing and they simply happen to be in Nigeria. It is like the case of Musa whose salary increased from N10k to N100k/month, but whose family's living stipend didn't change from the occasional N2K. Musa's (and his new mistresses') economy has no doubt grown but not his wife and kids. When will this govt dump its corruption 'mistress' and start focus on improving its citizens?
Tomorrow, GEJ will not ask this question "Are you better today than you were 4 years ago?", because he doesn't care to know. Instead he will want to answer it for you, .

5. Jobs
"We have also launched the Public Works Women and Youth Empowerment Programme, which is designed to employ 370,000 youths per annum"
How many of these jobs have been created? Every year, our population grows by 3.5 million. This is a govt whose priority is spending $40million to snoop on its citizens, so it is no surprise it hasn't paid more attention to creating needed infrastructure, security, land/property reforms and the environment that encourages entrepreneurship and private sector led job creation. Rather than work with states to combat unprecedented rural-urban migration, its agents use state institutions to harass democratically elected Governors and their forum!

6. Security.
Not since the Biafran war has there been so much shedding of innocent blood in the country. Unprecedented in our recent history is the recent declaration of a state of emergency in 3 states! It begs the question "what was the President doing in the intervening 11 months, since June 2012, when his promise to end insurgent activities didn't materialise?". Like his visit to Maiduguri in April, it took the intervention of the Opposition for the President to act. These days, it appears the opposition leads while Jonathan follows!

7. International community
Under this Govt, the perception of our influence in the committee of nations has diminished. Our influence seems to be waning as well. At the weekend, our President was unable to address the AU at his allotted time, for undisclosed reason (despite the rumours at Mama Ejiros). It appears when it comes to looking for important partner-leaders, the search-light turns to Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania, South Africa etc.

8. Power sector
Jonathan promised 6000MW by the end of 2010. He is yet to achieve this. He has promised stable power next year. He will on track NOT achieve it. More promises, less delivery. Again, he will ask for more time. We will hear how the electricity and generation companies have been privatised. Truth is, they haven't. Bid winners have only paid 25% of the transaction costs. Receiving 25% of one's salary isn't the same as getting "paid". However, a significant milestone will be reached once full payment (without significant alternation to original purchase agreement) is received.

9 Education
Those who began under-graduate studies when Jonathan ascended the President in 2010 will be graduating soon, unlike some of their friends in the under-funded public sector. Sadly, both face an uncertain job-market that is either not creating jobs or not fast enough for the tens/hundreds of thousands who graduate every year. The 'stampede' for jobs has even birthed a new scam!
Last year's speech included a promise to establish the Institute of Democratic Studies and Governance at the University of Lagos. Was it fulfilled?

10. Health
Remember, the white-paper committee on #RibaduReport? There is a twist to this story. Ctizens Nosa and Amina got excited about the committee's work last November and acted on this excitment. In December, Amina discovered she was pregnant. Fantastic!! However, a few days ago, she went into labour. Though pre-term, Amina had a girl (if only this govt delivered as well)!! Ngozi was born. Unfortunately, the Federal Medical Centre, despite the best efforts of the doctors and nurse, lacked most of the neonatal equipment she needed. Fortunately for Nosa, he could afford to evacuate using an air ambulance. Amina and Ngozi are doing well in a hospital aboard, like most of the elites. Please remember the other couple, Kasali and Doorshima, in your prayers. She needs a full term, no complications and a safe delivery because like many Nigerians who have no access to affordable quality health.

So while the speech tomorrow will be directed at you and I, it won't be about us. Let's hope It won't be a continuation of the narrative on protecting narrow interest and about t the desire to rule not lead. Otherwise, he difference this time is "we've heard it all before". But then, we live in hope!

Happy Democracy Day (in advance)!

Yours truly,
Average Nigerian


E&OE

Full text of President Goodluck Jonathan’s Democracy Day 2012 speech — The Punch - Nigeria's Most Widely Read Newspaper