Winning the PDP Presidential Primaries is going to be an uphill battle for Jonathan. The numbers are not there for him at the moment. We can now understand why he is hell bent on destroying Amaechi and any other political opponents who pose any threat to his second term ambition. The delegate number is so skewed to the North to the extent that the only option left for Jonathan is to either win through consensus or change the rule in the middle of the game. Jonathan is likely to get there but it won’t be as easy as it was in 2011. Obasanjo who spearheaded his nomination is not on his side at the moment. All the Northern Governors who went against the wish of the Northern people to support Jonathan’s ambition in 2011 are no more with him.



The race will be clearer as Sule Lamido/Rotimi Amaechi declare their intention to vie for the top office.

All the Northern States (Niger, Jigawa, Bornu, Sokoto, Zamfara, Adamawa, Kebbi, Bauchi, Yobe, Kano, Nasarawa, Kwara, Katsina, Gombe, ) that went for Jonathan in 2011 are not going to be there anymore

60% of South-west delegates are expected to go for Jonathan, despite his endorsement by the zone.

South-east/South-south governors have sympathy for Jonathan. It is a different ball game if Amaechi runs with Lamido on the same ticket.

Delegate count is based on PDP on list of statutory delegates made up of all officials elected on the party’s platform (and in line with the amended Electoral Act).

Undecided voters hold the ace as d-day draws near.

A contestant must poll at least 51% (about 1776) of the total votes cast to be declared winner.



State Delegates by Number

Abia 90

Adamawa 94

Akwa Ibom 70

Anambra 81

Bauchi 106

Bayelsa 58

Benue 118

Borno 64

C River 95

Delta 114

Ekiti 78

Ebonyi 74

Edo 67

Enugu 95

Gombe 74

Imo 114

Jigawa 125

Kaduna 117

Katsina 160

Kano 111

Kebbi 118

Kogi 97

Kwara 87

Lagos 70

Nasarawa 69

Niger 107

Ogun 105

Ondo 81

Osun 123

Oyo 154

Plateau 83

Rivers 113

Sokoto 94

Taraba 87

Yobe 50

Zamfara 71

FCT 23 23


Total 3,483


If you all recall, most of these Northern Governors acted against the interest of their people to support Jonathan in 2011. There was a revolt among these Northern Governors when Babangida Aliyu of Niger State was going around the North clamoring for Jonathan’s support as against Atiku, Adamu Ciroma, IBB and other Hausa/Fulanis who wanted power to remain in the North. The Northern Youth Forum, Arewa Consultative Forum, and other groups were spitting fire when Babangida Aliyu declared that a “gentle man agreement” had been reached between Jonathan and Northern Governors to contest for one term. The Northern Governors took political risk and fought tooth and nail to spike Atiku at the convention.

If you think securing second term is going to be walk in the park for Jonathan, you should be prepared for rude awakening. You do not want to bet against the Hausas/Fulanis when they unite against one enemy.

I will be betting on a RUN-OFF.

It is not going to be a walk in the park for Jona.

@OP why are so worked up and obsessed with GEJ and his 2015 ambition? Is it about removing GEJ or good governance and development?

All what you wrote is your own opinion and you have forced yourself to agree with it. Do you seriously think GEJ is your problem?

The earlier the failure the better but have it in mind that Jona can go as far as paying each delegate N10m or even more to ensure they vote for him.

duality: @OP why are so worked up and obsessed with GEJ and his 2015 ambition? Is it about removing GEJ or good governance and development?

All what you wrote is your own opinion and you have forced yourself to agree with it. Do you seriously think GEJ is your problem?

‎​M̶̲̥̅γ̲̣̣̥ guy don't mind de haters/fools in dis forum. Most of them will be consumed in their obsession. Long live GEJ. Long live Naija

blink182: The earlier the failure the better but have it in mind that Jona can go as far as paying each delegate N10m or even more to ensure they vote for him.

N10 million from his father's bank account?

This Analysis is very WRONG
Yes sokoto ,kebbi, zamfara, adamawa Niger jigawa and Kano might follow their Governors in protest
Katsina , Gombe ,Taraba ,Benue Plateau,Bauchi FCT ,are in the Bag for Jonathan and remember since Borno,Yobe , Nassarawa don't have PDP gov the president is always favoured since their leaders are always pro sitting president ,the South west is a walkover for jonathan 100% same for the South East and of course south south forget Ameachi he is going no where .
The real battle is not the PDP ticket its the General Elections but if 20-24 hours electricity is provided as well as the light |modernised rail systems ,East west rd etc and increased job opportunities are provided Jona can go and sleep he has Won !

^^^

LMAO!!!

Which SW?

No be only walk over, na foot-stone!

Here u go with ur lack of intelligence again!

SLIDE waxie: ^^^

LMAO!!!

Which SW?

No be only walk over, na foot-stone!

SLIDE waxie:
^^^

LMAO!!!

Which SW?

No be only walk over, na foot-stone!

Here u go with ur lack of intelligence again!

Here u go with ur lack of intelligence again!

Jonathan has control of Sw PDP.You can only argue about the election proper.He will surely corner all the votes or almost everything in sw/se/ss and several other nortern states @ d pdp convention

LMAO@OP's very naive analysis, in 2011, Jonathan lost in 5 states, kano,niger,sokoto,kebbi,zamfara and yet got over 80% of the votes, this 5 govs are the nucleus of d opposition to him within the PDP, only sule lamido who supported GEJ in 2011and is in control of d party in jigawa that is no longer on his side because of his own ambition,In Adamawa, Bamanga Tukur/Boni Haruna's faction which is loyal to GEJ is in charge and that's why nyako is angry, and rivers PDP is in the firm hands of Wike and other GEJ loyalists
For Your info, South west PDP met last month and endorsed GEJ, I'll post a link later...
He is in total control of SE/SS plus benue,plateau,kogi,taraba,nasarawa PDP, kaduna with Sambo and Yero are loyal and Shema in Katsina is Jonathan's strongest northern ally, even Yuguda in Bauchi sef......so Op, like or hate GEJ, he is a smart political strategist and will easilly win the PDP ticket, that's is why the dissenting governors have been threatening since

The South West chapter of the Peoples Democratic
Party, on Tuesday endorsed President Goodluck
Jonathan for a second term in 2015.
This is contained in a communiqué signed by the
Chairman, South West Caretaker Committee of the
PDP, Chief Ishola Filani at the end of the committee’s
meeting.
The forum said it endorsed Jonathan because of his
leadership qualities and transformation efforts.
“After carefully x-raying the President’s qualities and
in view of the fact that he is constitutionally qualified
to seek re-election, the forum unanimously endorsed
him for a second term in 2015,” the communiqué
said.
The News Agency of Nigeria reports that it also
passed a vote of confidence in the transformation
agenda of Jonathan and the leadership role of the
National Chairman of the PDP.
The forum also passed same on the PDP National
Working Committee, as well as its Zonal Caretaker
Committee.
The forum commended the President on the
measures so far taken in combating the current
security challenges in the country.
The meeting agreed that former President Olusegun
Obasanjo should be the grand patron of the PDP in
the South West.
It agreed to work as an entity for the success of the
PDP in all forthcoming elections in Nigeria, starting
with the 2014 governorship elections in Ekiti and
Osun, to the presidential and general elections in
2015.

@OP, ur obsession with GEJ is becoming an addiction, he'll triumph again in 2015 and there's nothin u can do about it


sunnewsonline.com/new/national/2015-anambra-pdp-endorses-jonathan/

I think the op is suffering from "Goodluckphobia".

Gej man of the people. No be you na God, haters can go to hell

@op is an ignoramus whom hate has stoped frm seing dat sw pdp are nt controld by d apc, also d pdp of evry state controld by d opositn wil neva opose gej. Btw y ar u troubled abwt gej picking pdp ticket aftall dat'll make eazy 4 apc, or is he no more a retardeen? Talk true.

This is all story,
The same way some people skewed the delegate numbers in their favour is same way Uncle Jona will unskew it in his favour.