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Temitope

Today's dynamics at the Asian stock markets are generally in a negative zone, the Chinese indexes look worse than the others due to a strong typhoon storming in the People's Republic of China. Also, negative pressure was laid by yesterday's decrease in the American market, that, as a whole, creates a negative external background. In Hong Kong today there are full-scale sales in the real estate sector, in particular China Resources Land and China Overseas Land & Investment decreased by 3.5% and 1.5% respectively, and the reason for it is the same, a destructive typhoon. On the continent, the situation with construction companies is almost the same, China Vanke and Beijing Capital Development decrease by 1.2% and 2.1% respectively. In Japan, meanwhile, representatives of the hi-tech exporting sector are feeling worse than the others, which, by tradition, most sharply react to all-market conditions. Sony, Canon and Pioneer lost more than 2% today, the background factor being the strengthening of the Yen against the Dollar which was promoted, in turn, by yesterday's statement of the representative of FED, regarding the state of the economy of the USA and prospects of turning of QE3. In the commodity market, prices for Oil are slightly decreasing with Brent traded on a level of 108.08$ per barrel and Light is decreasing by 0.12% coming down to a price of 103.46$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are consolidating after steep increases which we witnessed after the decision of FED last week, Gold is traded on a level of 1324.14$ and is losing 0.21%. Silver is down to 21.79$ and is losing 0.68%. As for the EUR/USD, there will be published statistics on German indicators from IFO institute for September. Positive data will effect the currency pair, and give it power to return back to the resistance level of 1.3550. However, if the results are going to be worse than the expected values, Euro can go down.

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Its been a very tricky week for Eur/Usd so far, with the pair not in a clearly defined trend.

Looking at the eu price movement and the Oscillators, we would notice that the pair is not moving as deep as the indicators are indicating. for example the MACD moves downward in a sharp successive manner to the 0.000925 region from the 0.005454 place point, towards the waterline 0. This from exsperience in dicates a non agreement between the pairs price movement and the indicators. In my view, its a virtual development for a divergence..

Also using correlation co-efficient, you can see that over the course of the past 3 months data Aud/Usd ,Nzd/Usd and Eur/Usd has a corelation coefficient of 92%. Looking at the chart today you would see that while these two other pairs are moving downward the Eur/Usd is trying to push for more upward highs.

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The American market finished the trading session with a small increase. Good news from the labor market and optimistic statements of senator Stein provoked an increase in demand for fallen priced shares after a five day correction period. Primary requests for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to 305 thousand from the reconsidered 310 thousand, that became a minimum level almost in 6 years, and the senator from the republicans declared with confidence that neither government termination of work, nor a default according to obligations, will happen. It appeared the news was quite enough to spur the correctional growth of market indexes. However, it should be noted that GDP in the final reading in the 2nd quarter made 2.5%, even though a 2.6% increase had been predicted. Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed with an increase of 0.36% on a level of 15328.30 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 grew by 0.35% to level of 1698.67 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, the Nasdaq, rose by 0.70% to a level of 3787.43 points. The situation in the commodity market seems to be rather stable. Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.95$ per barrel losing 0.23%, Light is down by 0.45%, traded on a level of 102.55$ per barrel. The key support level for Brent is still located in the range of 106.00 – 107.00$ per barrel. Recently we are observing a consolidation, volatility has been reduced. In the currency market, we have seen a stronger Dollar in relation to all major currency pairs. EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3491, having tested yesterday a support level based on 1.3470. British Pound has been under moderate pressure after the report on the current account of the balance of payments for the first quarter, showing the most considerable deficiency since 1955. That calls into question the possibility of the economy to continue restoration with developed speed due to further strengthening of the Sterling. British Pound is bargaining this morning next to the level of 1.6110. For today, an exit of important macroeconomic statistics aren't planned that could be capable of having an essential impact on Dollar positions, but it will be saturated on significant events. At once, three members of the committee on the open markets of FRS of the USA will make a speech at various actions.

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Does anyone see the double top on 4hrs chart of Eur/Usd?

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On Tuesday, the American market finished trading session again with decrease. Democrats and republicans continue to insist on their positions and for all week negotiations didn't move from "a dead point". Yesterday the president Barack Obama declared that he agrees to resume negotiations only after governmental departments will be open and the national debt ceiling without any conditions is raised.

As to statistical data, then it can be noted that an index of economic optimism of IBD decreased in October to 38,4 points from 46 points. The statistics on trade balance of the USA was not announced.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in 1,07%% minus on a level of 14776,53 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 lost 1,23%% reaching level of 1655,45 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq decreased by 2,00%% to a level of 3694,83 points.

The price for Brent this morning is decreasing for 0,11%% traded on a price of 109,27$ per barrel. Light is flat on a price of 103,30$ per barrel. Precious metals are losing in price with gold and silver traded on 1316,81$ and 22,26$ accordingly.

On the currency market, dollar is weakening in relation to major currencies. EUR/USD is traded on a 1,3527. Problems in the USA are pushing dollar to go down and against all this, even the publication of the protocol of last meeting of FOMC hardly will be able to strengthen USD positions.

Great Britain will publish today the whole series of reports on industrial production, trade balance and gross domestic product from NIESR. If indicators will continue to show stable growth of national economy, it can push currency pair to reach next resistance level, based on 1,6150.

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Yen Halts 3 day consecutive drop!

The yen snapped a three-day decline versus the dollar after some Bank of Japan officials said they saw risks to the outlook for the economy.

The yen was supported after minutes of the BOJ’s October meeting published today showed one member said it was “highly uncertain” whether inflation would rise toward the 2 percent target. The euro gained after China’s central bank governor said the currency is important to his nation’s reserve management. European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, who has said negative deposit rates are a possible tool, will speak today. Australia’s dollar rose after Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said the bar for intervention is high.

BOJ officials are “somewhat tentative and cautious,” said Callum Henderson, the global head of currency research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “Our expectation is for further gradual gains in dollar-yen, but it’ll be a slow grind rather than a dramatic move higher.”

Japan’s currency gained 0.1 percent to 101.55 per dollar at 7:02 a.m. in London after reaching 101.92 yesterday, the weakest since May 29. The yen was little changed at 137.40 per euro, above a four-year low. The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.3531 from yesterday, when it slid 0.3 percent.

The BOJ said in April it wanted to achieve 2 percent inflation (ECCPEST) in about two years. Consumer prices excluding fresh food climbed 0.7 percent in September from a year ago.

Central bank board member Sayuri Shirai proposed adding “attention should be paid to the downside risks” to the bank’s outlook report as “there was a high degree of uncertainty regarding developments in overseas economies and households’ employment and income situation,” the BOJ minutes showed.
Yen Gain

The yen will probably strengthen to 100 per dollar by Dec. 31, according to the median estimate of analysts surveyed. The euro will probably be at $1.34 by then, a separate poll showed.

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s remarks on the euro were made in Beijing today, according to Market News International.

The ECB’s Asmussen is scheduled to speak in Berlin later today. He said on Nov. 23 he wouldn’t fundamentally exclude setting a negative deposit rate and that the central bank will continue to act if necessary to ensure price stability. Council member Ardo Hansson said in an interview in Tallinn on Nov. 22 that the Frankfurt-based central bank’s “options on rate cuts are still not fully exhausted and there are all kinds of other measures that are still on the table.”
Subdued Inflation

Inflation in Europe probably stayed close to the lowest level in almost four years in November with a reading of 0.8 percent, according to the median prediction of economists polled before a Nov. 29 report.

ECB policy makers will “continue to suggest that they may go down these alternate paths of negative rates, or possibly some kind of asset purchase, if and when they feel it’s necessary as the lack of inflation is becoming more entrenched,” said Emma Lawson, a Sydney-based senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. “We are likely to see the euro come under pressure as they discuss all of their options.”

The Aussie climbed versus most of its major peers, advancing 0.3 percent to 91.86 U.S. cents.

“We don’t rule intervention in or out, that’s been a long-standing practice,” the RBA’s Lowe said in response to an audience question following a speech in Sydney today. “In the past, we have been prepared to intervene in the currency market when it’s clear the currency was misaligned or the market wasn’t working well. The threshold for intervention though is fairly high.”

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mekuzoil: @op

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Euro climbs as inflation data damps ECB speculations..

The euro rose to a four-year high against the yen as annual inflation in Germany accelerated in November more than economists forecast, damping bets the European Central Bank will further loosen monetary policy.

The shared currency climbed for a third day against the dollar as separate reports showed consumer-price growth in the German states of Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia increased for the first time in five months. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate this month after inflation in the currency bloc slowed to a four-year low in October. The pound rose for a third day versus the dollar as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank will end incentives for mortgage lending.

The more resilient German inflation is, the higher the hurdle is for more easing from the ECB,” said Eimear Daly, a currency-market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. in London. “The inflation number from Saxony significantly boosted the euro,” she said, referring to the first regional report to be released.

The euro climbed 0.3 percent to 139.07 yen at 10:32 a.m. Toronto time after advancing to 139.18, the highest since June 2009. The shared currency added 0.2 percent to $1.3602. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 102.25 yen after touching 102.37, the strongest level since May 29.

U.S. financial markets are shut today for a public holiday.

The annual inflation rate in Germany, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, rose to 1.6 percent this month from 1.2 percent in October. The median forecast of analysts in a survey was for a reading of 1.3 percent.
Carney Announcement

Analysts in a separate survey estimate European Union statistics office data tomorrow will show consumer prices in the euro region rose 0.8 percent in November from a year ago, after increasing 0.7 percent the prior month.

The pound rose as Carney said allowances under the central bank’s Funding for Lending Scheme will only apply to business lending from 2014 and will no longer be available for home loans.

“Sterling reacted positively to what Carney said because the perception is that the Bank of England is using macro-prudential measures to head off risk to market stability that could come from the housing market,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “Some see that as hawkish.”

The pound rose 0.4 percent to $1.6356 after climbing to $1.6358, the highest since Jan. 2. It gained 0.2 percent to 83.17 pence per euro after touching 83.13 pence, the strongest since Nov. 7.
Aussie Dollar

The pound was the best performer against the dollar this month among 16 major currencies tracked, gaining 2 percent, while the Australian dollar was the biggest loser.

Australia’s dollar rose for the first time in seven days today after data showed private capital spending jumped 3.6 percent in the third quarter from the previous period, when it rose a revised 1.6 percent. The median forecast of economists surveyed was for a 1.2 percent decline.

The Aussie rose 0.1 percent to 90.90 U.S. cents after declining to 90.65 yesterday, the weakest since Sept. 4.

In Brazil, the real appreciated for the first time in four days after the nation raised its benchmark lending rate late yesterday for the sixth time this year, increasing it half a percentage point to 10 percent. The currency gained 0.4 percent to 2.3223 per dollar after sliding 2.2 percent in the previous three days.

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