Lord Varys:
Southern Kaduna will deliver for GEJ 100% as always....GEj will name Isaiah Balat as minister in the reconstituted cabinet to appease the dissenting voices, Yuguda trounced the CPC candidate in 2011 who even had buhari's support, buhari's support hardly trickles to his parties candidates and only only the politically naïve will call Bala muhammed an abuja politician.....bala remains very strong on ground and I'm confident they'll deliver the required 25% in 2015.....and the immense powers of patronage dankwabo possesses will defeat Goje anytime, the other 2 senators remain firmly in support of dankwambo plus the state house of assembly and house of reps members, Goje is an astute politician no doubt but he has lost his footing in that state, even his erstwhile deputy joshua lidani has joined dankwabbo's group
Dankwabbo will deliver at least 30% for GEJ in 2015 and GEj will win as always in Taraba

you are entitled to your opinion. As a northern christian I know GEJ's popularity has nosedived a great deal. I hope you know northern christians have no issues voting a muslim candidate, they will only refuse to vote Buhari. I can assure you that any credible muslim candidate from the north will sweep more than 50% of GEJ's supporters here. So in the event that APC picks a younger northerner, GEJ can kiss his minority christian votes goodbye. Then, let's talk about the north central.. Lol.. Niger is gone to APC 100%, Kwara is gone to APC 100 %, kogi is 50-50 chance for GEJ because the larger muslim population will vote a muslim candidate and the christians here don't really care about who wins, they are very comfortable with their muslim brothers, so GEJ will likely loose Kogi. Plateau is going to GEJ no doubt, while Benue is 50-50 chance, the stronghold of PDP there is the Idoma speaking area, but should David mark decides to go against GEJ, then Benue will tilt towards APC 70-30. In conclusion, if things continue like this then GEJ is either loosing come 2015 of we are heading for a run-off.

Olugbenger: Mynd_44, i never knew you analyse politics this well. Infact, you should forget that literature section and pack ur loads here.

Mynd_44 is sure sound and very on point!

Jimi Agbaje should not dare join the PDP else he will by his own hand dig his own political grave! The worst is for him to join the siamese twins of PDP wc is the Labour Party. Even at that,shame and ignominy awaits him as usual

People will be shocked at the candidate APC will throw up! If Fashola was brilliant,the man coming is way too classy and will pulverise any pretender from PDP/LP

no one is saying GEJ can not win 2015 election, but to be a president win in minority party is what must president want, if not ask David Cameron and Obama because they don't control the parliament take example Cameron even when 47% of MP are from his party he is always disgrace in the floor of parliament because most of his bills can't pass like the recent visa bond for nigeria or bond even when his party control the sanate and house of representive don't allow most of his bill to pass and kept in mind the republican have only 54% percent of house (234 of the 435) so let make analysis for PDP in sanate in 2015 Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Plateau, Rivers taraba (based on the assumption that suntai is 100% fit and the current acting go (10*3 =30) state that PDP will win 2 senators Anambra, (based on the assumption that Ningi go back to senate and APGA loss) and Imo (rochas use to power to win at least only 1 senators and loss the remaining 2 benue (George Akume go back to senate) (3*2) state that PDP will in one senator Adamawa (tukur win his senatorial district , Bauchi ( bala and yuguda help Ningi to go back to senate) kaduna (PDP used church to campaign and Nnade Usman win southern kaduna) nasarawa ( some might argue that pep can win 2 senators but kept in mind labara and dome are not really love in the state) kwara (saraki can go back to senate) Niger ( based on assumption that babangida tactic back fire at him and he loss) and Abuja (1*7) total 43 senators that only 40% even if 3 sanators from ondo (LP join) is still just 46 senators

Soon governance will be completely abandoned and all we'll be doing is political calculation and permutations, and politics, politics and more too much politics; which is the bane of development in most developing nations. We waste too much time and energy in politics, thereby allowing governance to suffer.

The crisis in PDP has already forced the president to do things which ordinarily he wouldn't have done- premature reshuffling of the cabinet, seeking for alliances and where necessary empower new politicians and new groups, etc. Budget presentation and crucials bills in the NASS are delayed, Boko Haram distraction, pipeline vandalism,etc. In the end, governance suffers and the ordinary people suffer.

Lord Varys:
my company did consultancy work for GEJ's campaign in 2011 and I tell you, the SW will be split evenly, you'll be surprised at what an effective ethno-religious campaign can do

The above quote just confirms the singular reason why nobody should vote for GEJ

At a time when the country and its populace need a binding agent and a president who will not seek to further divide and polarise us along these 2 fault lines,alas! you have further expose what we already know about GEJ being a divisive president

kokoA: you are entitled to your opinion. As a northern christian I know GEJ's popularity has nosedived a great deal. I hope you know northern christians have no issues voting a muslim candidate, they will only refuse to vote Buhari. I can assure you that any credible muslim candidate from the north will sweep more than 50% of GEJ's supporters here. So in the event that APC picks a younger northerner, GEJ can kiss his minority christian votes goodbye. Then, let's talk about the north central.. Lol.. Niger is gone to APC 100%, Kwara is gone to APC 100 %, kogi is 50-50 chance for GEJ because the larger muslim population will vote a muslim candidate and the christians here don't really care about who wins, they are very comfortable with their muslim brothers, so GEJ will likely loose Kogi. Plateau is going to GEJ no doubt, while Benue is 50-50 chance, the stronghold of PDP there is the Idoma speaking area, but should David mark decides to go against GEJ, then Benue will tilt towards APC 70-30. In conclusion, if things continue like this then GEJ is either loosing come 2015 of we are heading for a run-off.

Lolz , APc is presenting Buhari no doubt....if APC presents any candidate but him, they'll lose scandalously, they are not that foolish, lemme correct your very naïve political calculations, Southern Kaduna is 100% GEj, PDP totally controls Kogi and the igalas led by wada and ibrahim idris + Smart adeyemi won't deliver anything less than 70%, kogi is a core PDP state no doubt about that, same thing for benue,the few APC house of reps members have returned to the PDP since Ugbah lost at the supreme court and Akume's position itself is shaky, David Mark's loyalty to GEJ is total, he is biding his time for 2019 when he'll run, Suswan and Dmark will deliver nothing less than 80% of benue for him, plateau-80%, taraba-70%, jibril aminu and tukur will secure at least 40% of adamawa to GEj, boni Haruna has returned to PDP and in a bye election held last month, the PDp defeatted Nyako's candidate for a house of assembly seat in nyako's lga,14000 to 7000.....nyako is a liability to APC sef, so dude, GEJ's middle belt alliance remains unshaken

Mynd_44:
Dude, Jimi Agbaje is not a PDP person. Don't you get it? The guy does not fight battles he cannot win. He has looked around and seen the work done so he chose to walk away. Even the LP where he once was can't talk of having him

and do you really think Agbaje can defeat an APC candidate? In the 2011 elections, the APC set a record of votes from a single state which no party has ever gotten before +1.5m votes.

And with the general hatred towards the PDP in Lagos, no sensible candidate will even think of it

not to mention the apathy they have towards GEJ

You certainly have no clue about Lagos. Please go and find out what happened in the last LGA elections. If it was free and fair, the APC would have lost more than 50% of the LGAs. You have no clue what is coming in 2015. The only thing that will make PDP loose 2015 in Lagos is if they bring out a bad candidate. Lagos is there for the taking. The people are angry. Lagos is not bourdilon! If you think the Market women, the okada and keke peeps, the artisans that kai is messing up will vote Fashola again, then you need a brain check! Fashola is loathed in Lagos as an elitist gov. 2015 will shock you guys. The good thing is that you guys will not be able to rig again because there is a plan on the ground to checkmate that. You can take that to the bank

kokoA: you are entitled to your opinion. As a northern christian I know GEJ's popularity has nosedived a great deal. I hope you know northern christians have no issues voting a muslim candidate, they will only refuse to vote Buhari. I can assure you that any credible muslim candidate from the north will sweep more than 50% of GEJ's supporters here. So in the event that APC picks a younger northerner, GEJ can kiss his minority christian votes goodbye. Then, let's talk about the north central.. Lol.. Niger is gone to APC 100%, Kwara is gone to APC 100 %, kogi is 50-50 chance for GEJ because the larger muslim population will vote a muslim candidate and the christians here don't really care about who wins, they are very comfortable with their muslim brothers, so GEJ will likely loose Kogi. Plateau is going to GEJ no doubt, while Benue is 50-50 chance, the stronghold of PDP there is the Idoma speaking area, but should David mark decides to go against GEJ, then Benue will tilt towards APC 70-30. In conclusion, if things continue like this then GEJ is either loosing come 2015 of we are heading for a run-off.

You have no single clue bro. Boko Haram saga has ensured that the northern muslims and christians will never vote in block again. That is gone forever. Northern Christians will never vote a muslim in 2015. You seriously have no clue

Sincere 9gerian: Soon governance will be completely abandoned and all we'll be doing is political calculation and permutations, and politics, politics and more too much politics; which is the bane of development in most developing nations. We waste too much time and energy in politics, thereby allowing governance to suffer.

The crisis in PDP has already forced the president to do things which ordinarily he wouldn't have done- premature reshuffling of the cabinet, seeking for alliances and where necessary empower new politicians and new groups, etc. Budget presentation and crucials bills in the NASS are delayed, Boko Haram distraction, pipeline vandalism,etc. In the end, governance suffers and the ordinary people suffer.

I agree bro,but what choice do we have.....the battle line is drawn and we can't afford to retreat...next year is sadly going to be all about politicking, large scale Pro GEJ rallies are in the pipeline for early next year , the race ahead is going to be tough but I'm confident we'll triumph, then we can refocus on governance, the tight position in the national assembly will make bills and budgets difficult to pass,
Btw @APC e-pundits, your ranks are not even safe....Gov Oshiomole was in the villa today for extensive political discussions, so my sources tell me,n he openly supported GEJ in 2011 and GEJ recipprocated in 2012 edo guber polls, he'll likely roll with the transformation team come 2015

abbakacici: no one is saying GEJ can not win 2015 election, but to be a president win in minority party is what must president want, if not ask David Cameron and Obama because they don't control the parliament take example Cameron even when 47% of MP are from his party he is always disgrace in the floor of parliament because most of his bills can't pass like the recent visa bond for nigeria or bond even when his party control the sanate and house of representive don't allow most of his bill to pass and kept in mind the republican have only 54% percent of house (234 of the 435) so let make analysis for PDP in sanate in 2015 Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Plateau, Rivers taraba (based on the assumption that suntai is 100% fit and the current acting go (10*3 =30) state that PDP will win 2 senators Anambra, (based on the assumption that Ningi go back to senate and APGA loss) and Imo (rochas use to power to win at least only 1 senators and loss the remaining 2 benue (George Akume go back to senate) (3*2) state that PDP will in one senator Adamawa (tukur win his senatorial district , Bauchi ( bala and yuguda help Ningi to go back to senate) kaduna (PDP used church to campaign and Nnade Usman win southern kaduna) nasarawa ( some might argue that pep can win 2 senators but kept in mind labara and dome are not really love in the state) kwara (saraki can go back to senate) Niger ( based on assumption that babangida tactic back fire at him and he loss) and Abuja (1*7) total 43 senators that only 40% even if 3 sanators from ondo (LP join) is still just 46 senators

I do agree with your point tho...GEJ would most likely win but will face an opposition dominated NASS, it would be good for our fledgling democracy tho

Lord Varys:
I do agree with your point tho...GEJ would most likely win but will face an opposition dominated NASS, it would be good for our fledgling democracy tho

The opposition will never dominate the NASS. Most of you make one fundamental mistake. The opposition did not grow because of ideology. It grew because of the "North must return back to power" project. Once GEJ wins in 2015, these northerners will all return to the PDP enmass.

All in all tho, I admit APC has the momentum right now but they've played their cards too early, they showed their hand at the wrong time...Amaechi will be booted out by the Supreme Court next year, Mary Odili is working on her fellow judges to that effect,Lamido and Aliyu have made it clear they are still with the PDP while Saraki dillydallies on the position of Kwara

Lord Varys: All in all tho, I admit APC has the momentum right now but they've played their cards too early, they showed their hand at the wrong time...Amaechi will be booted out by the Supreme Court next year, Mary Odili is working on her fellow judges to that effect,Lamido and Aliyu have made it clear they are still with the PDP while Saraki dillydallies on the position of Kwara

I cant bet on Amaechi losing at the supreme court. Its possible but chances are very slim.

Sincere 9gerian:
I cant bet on Amaechi losing at the supreme court. Its possible but chances are very slim.

Indeed its shaky but I'm positive that he'll be displaced....the PDP's lawyers have joined Omehia's case and except the supreme court choses to reverse itself ,it will have to order a fresh election, I think the appeal court is supposed to rule first after the Supreme Court dismisses Amaechi's objection before it gets to the apex court, I'm sure the presidency will put in some influence tho

Mynd_44:
I love being quiet but when people wanna say the wrong things, I get pissed

That's nice.

Lord Varys: All in all tho, I admit APC has the momentum right now but they've played their cards too early, they showed their hand at the wrong time...Amaechi will be booted out by the Supreme Court next year, Mary Odili is working on her fellow judges to that effect,Lamido and Aliyu have made it clear they are still with the PDP while Saraki dillydallies on the position of Kwara

The only momemtum the opposisiton has is in the media. It doesnt translate to anything on the ground. The masses do not care about opposition momemtum. They will always vote along the factors that we know from time

Lord Varys:
Indeed its shaky but I'm positive that he'll be displaced....the PDP's lawyers have joined Omehia's case and except the supreme court choses to reverse itself ,it will have to order a fresh election, I think the appeal court is supposed to rule first after the Supreme Court dismisses Amaechi's objection before it gets to the apex court, I'm sure the presidency will put in some influence tho

The supreme court and entire judiciary is supposed to be independent. Are you trying to say the presidency breaks the law and influences the decisions of the courts?

Talk about respecting the rule of law

Lord Varys:
Lolz , APc is presenting Buhari no doubt....if APC presents any candidate but him, they'll lose scandalously, they are not that foolish, lemme correct your very naïve political calculations, Southern Kaduna is 100% GEj, PDP totally controls Kogi and the igalas led by wada and ibrahim idris + Smart adeyemi won't deliver anything less than 70%, kogi is a core PDP state no doubt about that, same thing for benue,the few APC house of reps members have returned to the PDP since Ugbah lost at the supreme court and Akume's position itself is shaky, David Mark's loyalty to GEJ is total, he is biding his time for 2019 when he'll run, Suswan and Dmark will deliver nothing less than 80% of benue for him, plateau-80%, taraba-70%, jibril aminu and tukur will secure at least 40% of adamawa to GEj, boni Haruna has returned to PDP and in a bye election held last month, the PDp defeatted Nyako's candidate for a house of assembly seat in nyako's lga,14000 to 7000.....nyako is a liability to APC sef, so dude, GEJ's middle belt alliance remains unshaken

I don't think you very conversant with northern politics. From the feelers around here, GEJ has lost sympathy in the north (muslim and christians). Believe it or not it doesn't matter. I reside here and I travel around to. Kwankwanso or Tanbuwal will defeat GEJ in the north hands down I can bet on that. 2015 will be a shocker for PDP as majority of the northern element rallying round GEJ will sell him out easily so I advice you to review your calculations. Even if we go by your calculations. Let's say GEJ wins the vote of northern christians and looses the votes of northern muslim and southwest (christian and muslim) with some part of the middle belt, how is that enough to return him to Aso rock? Guy! Forget it.. GEJ aint smiling right now. I won't be surprise if he decides not to run.

Mynd_44:
The supreme court and entire judiciary is supposed to be independent. Are you trying to say the presidency breaks the law and influences the decisions of the courts?

Talk about respecting the rule of law

Oh common, we're nigerians and we know how the system works, one doesn't need wikileaks to know that Justice Salami worked for the AC.N hierhachy severally or that late YarAdua procured the 2008 Supreme Court Judgement that narrowly upheld his election or that Justice George Oguntade promised to support Buhari's case against then president yaradua and led the dissenting judges that year,
Politicians and the executive sadly have influence on the judiciary although the new CJN is spearheading some reforms, All the respective parties are guilty so as long as it favours who I support,.....I'm a pragmatist and there are no clean men in politics

Mynd_44: Jimi Agbaje has never and will never be a PDP loyalist.

During the last election when asked why he did not contest, he said "It is pointless contesting against Fashola". The dude is still an APC man to the bone.

Do you people honestly believe GEJ will get that much votes from the southwest? With so much neglect? Y'all don't know ish about politics ooo. The southwest is such a way now that it is comfortably in APC's hands to do and undo. And anyone who underates Saraki is trying to ski up the face of a mountain

The only way GEJ has a shot is if by some miracle, he starts performing.

Bro, although i don't like GEJ govt 'cos of poor governance, he'll still get enough votes from the SW esp Lagos where a large no. of igbos and other tribes reside. The SS, MB and SE will definitely vote for him. So he'll win although not by a wide margin.

kokoA: I don't think you very conversant with northern politics. From the feelers around here, GEJ has lost sympathy in the north (muslim and christians). Believe it or not it doesn't matter. I reside here and I travel around to. Kwankwanso or Tanbuwal will defeat GEJ in the north hands down I can bet on that. 2015 will be a shocker for PDP as majority of the northern element rallying round GEJ will sell him out easily so I advice you to review your calculations. Even if we go by your calculations. Let's say GEJ wins the vote of northern christians and looses the votes of northern muslim and southwest (christian and muslim) with some part of the middle belt, how is that enough to return him to Aso rock? Guy! Forget it.. GEJ aint smiling right now. I won't be surprise if he decides not to run.

The SE,SS,MB plus fringe SW states like Ondo,Oyo, and a sizeable chunk of lagos , should be able to return GEJ ,

Lord Varys:
I've just explained the senate situation to U, the senate is still his, the house of reps is where the situation is dire....you'll see so over the next few days

In reality, the house of Reps ceased to be his(GEJ's) a long time ago 'cos of d disloyalty of d speaker and some other members of the House of Reps from PDP.

Lord Varys:
I've just explained the senate situation to U, the senate is still his, the house of reps is where the situation is dire....you'll see so over the next few days

In reality, the house of Reps ceased to be his(GEJ's) a long time ago 'cos of d disloyalty of d speaker and some other members of the House of Reps from the PDP.

Team fresh air 2019

Mynd_44:
I love being quiet but when people wanna say the wrong things, I get pissed

Son, you don't know politics. You analyse politics by what you read on the newspapers and sentiment.

Lord vyras is good! Didn't know a chap like him is on this forum.

Mynd_44:
The supreme court and entire judiciary is supposed to be independent. Are you trying to say the presidency breaks the law and influences the decisions of the courts?

Talk about respecting the rule of law

You see why I say you don't understand politics ? I bet if you hear half the things "your" Buhari and Tinubu do to secure those "victories" you tout about, you'd be shocked to the marrow.


Antonin Scalin was a Supreme court justice appointed by Ronald Reagan/George Bush snr govt. It was Scalin that gave the injunction to stop Florida vote count, when it was in dispute. When finally the votes were to be recounted, it already ran foul of Florida law that counting of votes should not extend to another day. This was his intention when he gave the injunction. To discredit further vote count and cover up Bush's loss and rigging.

This gave George Bush jnr victory in the 2000 American Presidential elections. (George Bush snr was Ronald Reagan's Vice- president before succeeding him as president)

I made the above illustration to show you that even in America, that we are quick to refer to, some politicians tend to enjoy the sympathy of some courts. This is why most Judgements are coloured by the judge's orientation. It is not done differently here. I will not talk about ours cos I am a minister in the temple of justice.

Politics is not a game for saints and honourable men.

Rad1cal: Team fresh air 2019

What is fresh about this intoxication. PDP boys crying blue murder. Without a single vote, APC has dismantle the PDP structures at all levels. You are calculating how to qualify as best loosers

We have created a weeping centre for the PDP https://www.nairaland.com/1532854/weeping-centre-pdp-e-warriors

Lord Varys:
I have it on good authority Jimi Agbaje has met GEJ thrice in lagos in the last year at the state house marina.......also note that even despite the general apathy towards the PDP in lagos,GEJ still secured nearly 70% of cast votes in 2011, note also that there is a large immigrant population from the SE and SS that still support GEJ and remain heavily suspicious of Buhari and the APC, GEJ won't get less than 45% of cast votes in lagos in 2015,

There is nothing the large immigrant population in lagos would do to change the course of the Presidential election

All that is needed is for Buhari to put Fashola on the ticket. No Yoruba would leave a popular Yoruba man ticket and follow one Jonathan

Why didnt this large immigrant population make OBJ win lagos in 1999, or make Tofa-Ugo win in 1993 etc

Lagos has always gone the way other Yoruba states have gone and with the extreme division that Jonathan has brought you can bet that the APC would sweep all SW states including Kwara

Good thing is Governorship election of Osun and EKiti would be help next yr which I expect the incumbent to win. So Aregbesola and Fayemi have all the time and resources to divert to Oyo, Ogun and Lagos to crush any PDP heads. Same thing with Oshiomole who doesnt have any election to worry about in 2015

While the PDP would be involved in a running battle in 2015 in several states than to care about Oyo and Ogun State

Lord Varys:
Southern Kaduna will deliver for GEJ 100% as always....GEj will name Isaiah Balat as minister in the reconstituted cabinet to appease the dissenting voices, Yuguda trounced the CPC candidate in 2011 who even had buhari's support, buhari's support hardly trickles to his parties candidates and only only the politically naïve will call Bala muhammed an abuja politician.....bala remains very strong on ground and I'm confident they'll deliver the required 25% in 2015.....and the immense powers of patronage dankwabo possesses will defeat Goje anytime, the other 2 senators remain firmly in support of dankwambo plus the state house of assembly and house of reps members, Goje is an astute politician no doubt but he has lost his footing in that state, even his erstwhile deputy joshua lidani has joined dankwabbo's group
Dankwabbo will deliver at least 30% for GEJ in 2015 and GEj will win as always in Taraba

My brother southern kaduna will not deliver for GEJ, they will have to battle the likes of el-rufai from zaria. the people of kaduna south and even plateau state are tired of inability of their PDP lead governor to control incessant communal clash in their areas. And for that of taraba, forget if T.Y danjuma is not behind him.