The impeachment of GEJ by the opposition APC is not possible, the attempt will only lead to so many Ghana-must-go bags flying around, that we'll need Air Traffic Controllers to ensure aircraft safety in our airspace.

If however it succeds, it will probably lead to the end of Nigeria, as there would be a resurgence/recrudescence of militancy/insurgency in the Niger Delta, which will quickly escalate into a full-scale war; a war which Nigeria cannot win. Why? The Asari-Dokubos and Tompolos are awesomely empowered to take on a Nigeria that already lacks internal cohesion, and severely weakened by the Boko Haram (never mind their lies that they are on top of the situation), and which is being held together by the greed of some people.

The APC is still likely to be out-rigged by the PDP. You can fill in the gaps from there.

A coup d'etat will be seen as an attack on the Niger Delta by the North. This is because, aside from the Chukwuma Nzeogwu and Gideon Orka coups, others were led by core Northerners. This is not likely to change. Therefore, irrespective of the reason for the coup, since the odds are 99-1 that it will be led by Northerners, we'll be back at the end result of the first scenario - war!

GEJ will be edged on by Niger Deltans to contest in 2015 even if the heavens will fall, because they will tell him that it is still their 'turn'. He will not accept 1,000 barrels of 'ogogoro' not to contest in 2015.

Agitations on the expiration of the Nigerian contract of 100 years WILL justifiably increase in tempo, and secessionists may gain ground and balkanize Nigeria with or without violence.

Anyhow, it's not likely to be the usual 'crisis-management of crisis-more crisis' cycle

The SS and SE are only likely to form a temporary alliance to rid themselves of the rest of Nigeria. They cannot form a confederation; they cannot sustain their relationship at that level for long.

The MOST STUPID thing the Yoruba can do, and which they will certainly regret forever (because this time, they will pay heavily with their blood) is too allow the political alliance they are forming with the North (in order to remove Jonathan) to mutate into a military one. No Yoruba, military or civilian, should shed his blood for the sustenance of a fraudulent contraption. It will be so, so pointless and brainless!

Let me just re-emphasize this; if Jonathan does not get a second term, the South-South will be worse than the Northeast in terms of security challenges. Are we losing sight of the fact that Jonathan is deliberately turning a blind eye to the massive oil theft in the Niger Delta to empower his people? Whichever government gets there will be stretched thin trying contain and or pacify the SS and the NE at once!

If Jonathan does 'win' again, the Niger Delta would have become so powerful by 2019 that no region is likely to want to confront them again if they decide to pull out of Nigeria; it would be suicidal!

To be honest, I think the Nigerian crisis is about to reach its crescendo, which might, in itself, not be a terrible thing. We might get a resolution at the end of the day.

Adekunle Al Mufutau Adeite.