SOUTH SUDAN
Abridged Account of Asymmetric Ambitions and Arrested-Development©
--Attorney Patryk Utulu

On July 9, 2011, after 22 years of civil war Sudan (Sudan-Khartoum) granted independence to South Sudan. South Sudan is now on the brink of its own civil war as its two major tribes – Dimkas and Nuers – engage in reciprocal slaughter of each other’s civilians, mostly women and children. Predictably the Western World’s media mindset has robotically reached into its overused repertoire to blame yet another African conflict on ethnic animus, a.k.a., tribalism. But this is simplistic, and even dismissive, for while tribal emotion is an unavoidable fact of African political framework South Sudan’s sad saga has other roots hidden in plain sight: cold raw vengeance, U.S. oil money, regional power politics and asymmetric political ambitions.

HERE’S WHAT IS COMMONLY KNOWN ABOUT SOUTH SUDAN:
(1): United by brutality, fear and hatred of Sudan-Khartoum, Dimkas and Neurs of South Sudan put aside their traditional rivalry to organize armed rebellion under Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).
(2): In 2004 SPLM’s rebel leader, Col John Garang, nearly fractured SPLM when – on bogus evidence – he tried to remove his popular deputy/SPLM’s military Chief of Staff, Salva Kiir. The attempt failed!
(3): On July 30, 2005 Col Garang died in a helicopter crash and Salva Kiir became leader of SPLM/SPLA.
(4): Upon independence in 2011, Salva Kiir became President of South Sudan and Riek Machar his VP.
(5): Salva Kiir is a Dimka, SS’s largest tribe. Vice President Marchar is a Nuer, SS’s second largest tribe.
(6): In 2013, Mr. Marchar, declared his intention to challenge President Kiir for the Chairmanship of SPLM
(7): In July 2013 soldiers loyal to Mr. Machar clashed with soldiers loyal to President Kiir. Kiir called it an attempted coup d’état, dissolved the ruling council, fired VP Marcher and arrested 11 top ruling officials.
(: Massacres of Dimkas have occurred in Bor while massacres of Neurs occurred in SS’s capital, Juba.
(: Mr. Machar escaped arrest and went underground. Forces loyal to him now control Bor, capital of Jonglei, South Sudan’s oil-producing state and economic lifeline. Even as AU/U.N Sec-General calls for a diplomatic solution, Government forces loyal to Mr. Kiir are battling to dislodge rebel soldiers from Bor.

HERE ARE FACTS NOT COMMONLY KNOWN:
(1): 1991, using mostly his Nuer tribesmen Mr. Machar formed a splinter rebel group, SPLA-Nasir, in an unsuccessful attempt to overthrow SPLM main rebel leader, Col John Garrang.
(2): After failing to overthrow Col Garang, Machar’s SPLA-Nasir took to fighting their former comrades in SPLA and in essence, SPLA-Nasir became a proxy counterforce for the Government of Sudan-Khartoum.
(3): 1991: SPLA-Nasir rebels of Machar’s Nuer ethnic group massacred Col Garang's ethnic Dimkas in Bor. Top official s in President Kiir’s inner circles still swear that Machar gave the direct order for the massacre.
(4) 1997, Machar officially defected to Sudan-Khartoum Government who started paying his Machar.
(5): 2000, as independence neared Machar rejoined Col Garang/Salva Kiir’s SPLA as a senior commander.
(6): 2012, Nuer rebels-turned-politicians provided evidence that it was Machar who fabricated the bogus evidence that Col Garang relied on in his failed attempt to remove SPLA Chief of Staff, Salva Kiir, in 2004.
(7): While key players in this crisis are mainly Dimkas and Nuers it struggle is NOT neatly Dimka vs. Nuer. In fact, most of the 11 top officials arrested on the still-unverified coup d’état are Mr. Kiir’s fellow Dimkas.

FINALLY, HERE ARE THE STRATEGIC REASONS THAT AFRICAN UNION/U.N. MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE NOTICED:
(1): Former SPLA commanders (now South Sudan’s top leadership) of Dimka/Nuer ethnicity see Machar as a Manchurian candidate eager to assume South Sudan’s Presidency in order to carry out the interest of his Sudan-Khartoum masters. Dimkas did not forget their massacred relatives and even Mr. Machar’s fellow Nuers did not forgive that he turned his gun on them when he defected to Sudan-Khartoum Government.
(2): When Machar challenged President Kiir for Chairmanship of SPLM, Mr. Kiir foresaw what I’ll call “South African déjà vu.” SPLM is to South Sudan what African National Congress (ANC) is to South Africa. In 2007 when Jacob Zuma defeated South Africa’s President Mbeki in the election for “President of ANC,” Mbeki automatically became a lame duck president. The damage was such that with nine full months of his term still remaining, Mr. Mbeki resigned the South African Presidency. Neither Salva Kiir nor the men around him wanted to repeat that mistake – especially not if Mr. Machar would become President of South Sudan.
(3): Kenya versus Ethiopia regional rivalry continues to disrupt South Sudan’s fragile political structure. Currently South Sudan’s oil gets to world market through Sudan-Khartoum pipelines rented at high cost so South Sudan’s leaders determined to build alternative pipeline through Kenya to the Indian Ocean on the East African sea board. President Kiir’s inner circle supports this. But Mr. Machar’s loyalists prefer that the pipelines go through Ethiopia via Djibouti to the same Indian Ocean but much closer to global oil transport sea route through Egypt’s Suez Canal to European markets. The Ethiopian route is cheaper but South Sudan fear that the pipeline would be vulnerable to attack or disruption by Sudan-Khartoum, not to mention potential political instability in Djibouti, and Somali Pirates. But the dispute goes beyond dollars!
(4): SPLA rebels-turned SS Leaders have deep ideological divides and loyalties. Even as 400,000 were dying during “1983-1985 Ethiopian Famine” Ethiopia’s socialist President Mengistu Haile Mariam never seemed to lack money to support SPLA rebels. Now in political leadership positions, some of those rebels want to return that favor by building an oil pipeline through Ethiopia. But it was Kenya that nurtured and politically packaged the former socialist SPLA rebels into today’s politicians acceptable to the Western World.
(5): Finally, Chinese and U.S. companies are pouring $billions into South Sudan and as usual the elites are fighting over the bribes and contracts like bulldogs under the rug. But unlike in other post-Independence African nations, South Sudan’s ex-rebels are still armed due to continuing threat from Soudan-Khartoum and its supporter of APC rape squad militia. And as events have now shown it didn’t take long for ex-rebels to become rebels again because both SS Government and “civilianized” rebels have instruments of violence.

In summary, I wrote within the recent past regarding Nigeria’s APC vs. PDP power struggle, that the nature of power is to perpetuate itself and that sooner than later, those who rebelled against one authority tends to confront the same impulses that gave birth to the original rebellion: Who shall be on top of whom?

Thus the trajectory of triumph and emerging tragedy in South Sudan!


Patryk A. Utulu is a U.S.-based attorney and Strategic Communications Consultant
Executive Director, The Center for Community Empowerment and Lifeskills, Inc.
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