The men and women who will
shape 2014 on december 30, 2013 at 4:10
am in politics By Emmanuel Aziken, Political
Editor The year 2014, being the last
year before the next round of
general elections is bound to
be decisive as politicians from
across different political hues
take position. Some Nigerians who are bound to direct the
pace of political activities in
the country are mentioned
underneath. President Goodluck Jonathan
President Goodluck Jonathan
will be the centre of action in
the coming year. As president
of the country eligible for a
second term, the pace and posture of his politics would
largely determine the pattern
of political activities in 2014. President Jonathan who had in
the past pooh-poohed
questions on whether he would
seek re-election had said that
he would make his plans
known in 2014. With that year now at hand, the president can
no longer wave aside a
response to the issue. Will he
or will he not? Though his body language has
all but indicated that the
president would be contesting
the election, it is not
impossible for him to pull back. A decision to run would heat
up the polity to a level beyond
the normal level of a
presidential contest. A decision
not to run could also pose
serious threats to national security given the passion of
the president’s Ijaw kith and
kin who are determined to
have their son return to office
in 2015. Another possible action of the
president that would affect the
polity would be how he treats
the Council of Ministers.
Presently, the council is short of
about 12 ministers following the sack of a number of
ministers earlier this year. It is
expected that the president
could reshuffle the council to
plug in the vacancies. The
public, in the event of a reshuffle, would be watching
to see how the president treats
controversial members of the
council, notably the Minister of
Aviation, Princess Stella Oduah
who was indicted by the House of Representatives over her
role in the purchase of two
armoured vehicles. How the president responds to
some of his bitter criticis would
also define the way politics will
play out in the country. Besides
the usual tit for tat with the
opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, the president
would also be expected to
frontally confront his one time
benefactor turned adversary,
former President Olusegun
Obasanjo. The president’s open reply to Obasanjo’s missive last
week has inevitably taken their
quarrel to the point of no
return. Obasanjo as Jonathan noted,
has heckled all former heads of
state who succeeded him in
office as military head of state
in 1979. However, Jonathan is
not like any one of the others, given Obasanjo’s major role in
the ascension of Jonathan to
the presidency. Given that this may be his last
political fight, Obasanjo is
expected to fight to the hilt in
what is obviously now an ego
fight between him and his one
time surrogate. The prospect of Obasanjo
teaming up with the
opposition in 2014 appears
unlikely despite the recent visit
to him by national leaders of
the APC. Speaker Aminu Tambuwal
Though the leader of the PDP in
the House of Representatives,
only fools still believe that the
speaker’s heart is still in the
party that is now a minority in the House. Speaker Tambuwal
has handled issues maturely in
the House despite his relative
aloofness from the presidency
and the party. Of the major figures likely to
affect the polity in 2014,
Speaker Tambuwal is expected
to make the earliest move
given the gravitation of a
substantial number of PDP members to the APC.
The question in many mouths is
when, and not if Speaker
Tambuwal would defect to the
APC. When he does, it is not
likely to affect his position, but could bounce on his prospects. It would be recalled that
former military president, Gen.
Ibrahim Babangida had earlier
this year called on the Speaker
to aspire to higher office. Many
would be looking for gesticulations from the
speaker on a possible
presidential contest. Even before the call by Gen.
Babangida, Tambuwal had
been the focus of appeals from
several political stakeholders
who believe that he is best
positioned to challenge Jonathan for the presidency
within or outside the PDP. His
friendly disposition towards
the leadership of the APC has
also made him the cynosure of
many eyes. Speaker Tambuwal is definitely
going to be one of the major
factors that would shape the
politics of the nation in 2014. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu
As leader of the APC, Tinubu is
expected to play a decisive role
in the politicking that is going
to produce the next
governments at the central and state levels. His role is going to
be overwhelming in the
emergence of the next set of
governors in the South-West. How he plays politics of 2015
would, however, be another
matter. Former President
Olusegun Obasanjo had in his
open letter to President
Jonathan accused him of mortgaging the interests of the
PDP in the South-West through
a secret deal with Tinubu in
2011. The veracity of Obasanjo’s
assertion remains an issue, but
whether or not Tinubu cut a
deal with Jonathan last time
will bring the issue of Tinubu
being a decisive factor into consideration.
However, except something
goes awry, no deal would be
expected in the year as the
election is not expected to hold
until early next year. Tinubu is thus going to be a decisive
influence on the election. Gen.
Muhammadu
Buhari
The three
time
presidential candidate continues to be idolized by the
grassroots in the North on
account of his discipline and
the perceptions of his aversion
to avarice.
However, his influence outside the North and among the elitist
class in the North has
progressively ebbed. Despite
his negatives, Buhari has not
ruled himself out of the 2015
contest, and is as such the cause of anxiety in the hearts
of opposition partisans who
believe Buhari is not electable. Should Gen. Buhari decide to
rule himself out from
contesting for the APC ticket
and decide to mobilize for a
younger and more electable
person within the party such as Tambuwal, then it would be a
more serious battle for the PDP
and President Jonathan. Senator David Mark
Senator Mark may be regarded
as a systems man. However, set
between President Jonathan
and former President
Obasanjo, his body would obviously move with Jonathan
but his heart would definitely
be with former President
Obasanjo. It is no secret among
leading political stakeholders
that the once very cordial relationship between Mark and
Governor Gabriel Suswam in
Benue State has ruptured. In an apparent bid to
strengthen his hold on the local
chapter of the PDP apparently
for the benefit of enhancing
his speculated move to the
Senate and planting his successor, Governor Suswam is
known to have become a
strong apologist of the
president, and in the process,
won key federal appointments
that had hitherto gone the way of the Senate President. Senator Mark on the other hand
is bound by the dignity of his
office as Senate President not
to be seen as overtly a lackey of
the presidency, a situation that
has seen him lose some patronage from the presidency
to Governor Suswam. However,
in the battle of strategies that
is bound to ensue in 2014,
Senator Mark is expected to
move with his heart with a patriotic zeal above party
sentiments putting more
distance between him and the
presidency. Jonathan’s women
The women around the
president would in significant
ways affect him and the way
he operates in 2014.
First Lady Dame Patience Jonathan has largely been out
of gaze in recent times on
account of reports of negative
political fallout of her alleged
incursions in the polity
especially in her native Rivers State.
Mrs. Jonathan continues to
mobilize support for her
husband’s presidency through
every opportunity available to
her. The Minister of Finance, Dr.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala would be
a serious factor in the
consideration of many given
her hold over the nation’s
purse. Her tact and thunders in the face of demands from
politicians in government to
loose the financial strings
would be a critical issue in the
year. Mrs. Diezani Allison-Madueke,
the Minister of Petroleum has
become the longest serving
Minister of Petroleum since the
advent of the Fourth Republic.
She has almost stamped her personality on the politics of
the sector and according to
some sources, also become a
defining personality in the
inner caucus of the Jonathan
presidency. She would be a major influence
in 2014. Ms Stella Oduah, the minister of
aviation won accolades in her
first year in office following
the renovations of the country’s
airports. However, the
accolades died down as eyes focused on the processes that
led to the renovations and it
became an issue for her when
she was indicted by the House
of Representatives over her
role in the purchase of two armoured cars for her use by
the Nigerian Civil Aviation
Authority, NCAA. Okonjo-Iweala, Diezani and
Jonathan Despite her indictment and the
report of an internal
investigation ordered by the
president, Oduah has remained
in her position. Her staying
power is largely due to be said to be her role in mobilizing
support for the president’s
2011 election. She is said to be
one of the strongest women
with influence in the inner
caucus of the presidency and she would be a figure to watch
out for in the politics of 2014. Governors
Governors Rauf Aregbesola of
Osun State and Kayode Fayemi
of Ekiti State would be
significant political factors
especially in their states in 2014 as they prepare for
second term elections.
Also of interest in the year
would be the emerging leader
of the opposition in Ekiti State,
Rep. Michael Opeyemi Bamidele who would stir the Ekiti polity
as he battles the incumbent. Governor Rochas Okorocha of
Imo State would also be of
great interest in the polity
given his recent appointment
as chairman of the
Progressives Governors Forum.
www.vanguardngr.com