[size=15pt]N/Delta: Real reasons behind militants’ ceasefire[/size]
By Chris Akpor - 28.09.2008

After a week of destructive activities, trailed by a host of dead oil facilities, dead and wounded militants and about 150,000 barrels per day shut-in in the nation's daily crude output, the face of militancy in the Niger Delta, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) declared a "unilateral ceasefire" and retreated its name, not men because it possesses none, from the campaign it tagged 'Hurricane Barbarossa'. Before the latest declaration, analysts of activities of armed groups in the region had predicted an early withdrawal of the MEND from its needless campaign, premising on some indices which the group had inadvertently made obvious to the world.


Like it was indicated last weekend in the earlier piece titled "Hurricane Barbarossa: The 'War', the 'Why', observers had predicted that the militants would back-off at a point when they must have gone out of logistics and manpower, ignoring the boastful statements that had been credited to the MEND in the media in the course of the week. The militants played the script on Sunday, September 21, 2008, through a statement sent by the voice of the MEND, Jomo Gbomo, which claimed the hurricane had been down-graded to a "tropical storm", which was taken to mean that the oil war had been put on hold, at least for the time being. The so-called ceasefire had since been so observed that even when the considered adversary, the Joint Task Force (JTF), Operation Flush Out 3, carried out another alleged offensive on a militant camp, the kind of alleged aggression, which had 'provoked' MEND to declare war in the first instance, was attempted by JTF two days later, there was no recognizable response or reaction other than a statement from the information machine, informing of a double attack by the JTF.


"About 1730 Hrs on Tuesday, September 23, 2008, the Nigerian military still seething with anger from the humiliating defeat of the 6-day oil war, launched an unprovoked air assault on the camps of the Niger Delta Patriotic Force (NDPF) and Niger Delta Vigilante (NDV) in an attempt to destabilize the on-going ceasefire.


The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) condemns this cowardly act and will not play into the hands of the military by retaliating and putting the peace process in jeopardy at this time. It is a well known fact that the Joint Task "Fraud" (JTF) is desperate to showcase its relevance as they will be quickly out of business in an atmosphere of peace", Gbomo had said in a statement to inform the world of the attack on Ateke's group and another.


But in the view of those studying the activities of the groups, the response to the attacks was unusual. The MEND they know would go "an eye for an eye", it would even challenge any super-power that tries to meddle. The way of the MEND is that of bare braggadocio and exhibition of brute force, but the MEND that responded in the message seemed born again or something else was the matter. This was where observers' prediction came true. They had said by the time militants run out of ammunition or lose so much men that they don't have fighters again, they would withdraw from their unilaterally declared "oil war".


According to insider and security reports, the MEND's unilateral ceasefire has come at a point when none of the various groups out to gain points could lay claim to any categorical victory because of a number of reasons. When MEND was making declaration, it did not point at any ideological reasoning for which it was suspending actions, other than the intervention of some Ijaw leaders. "We decided to "stop outside Baghdad" even at a time of victory over the military and utter helplessness of the oil companies. This is again due to the passionate plea made by Chief Edwin K. Clark, Chief Government Ekpemupolo, Senator David Brigidi and no others", the machine had claimed.


But reports have it that the six-day war especially sapped the militant groups of both ammunition and men. As it currently stands, the surest source of arms and ammunition for the insurgent groups in the region seems stalled. Before now, informed sources had drawn inferences on the feverish call by all groups as well as some Ijaw leaders for the unconditional release of the detained leader of MEND; Henry Okah. Facts abound on the role of Okah as the sole facilitator of arms and ammunition for the various groups in the region. In his various press interviews after he was freed from detention, the leader of the Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force (NDPVF), Alhaji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, had spoken extensively on how Okah supplied him as well as other groups in the region with arms and ammunition for their various operations. "I met Henry Okah on the 3rd of February 2003 at the residence of a mutual friend who introduced him to me as an Ijaw man who deals in arms", Dokubo-Asari had said of Okah in a detailed account of his relationship with him.


So with their sole touch with ready supply of ammunition still standing trial and cooling his feet in the gulag, there sure is the need to tread with caution as far as the use of ammunition is concerned. The caution is more needed especially now when linking a fresh source may not be easily accessible and the nation's intelligence network is said to be waking up to its responsibilities and plugging those holes through which other ammunition sources might have been thinking of reaching their illegal markets through. Therefore, ammunition is said to be a challenge currently in the various camps of the Niger Delta armed groups.


At some point within the week of the unrest, the spokesman of the JTF, Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa, raised the alarm about a recruitment drive by militant groups. He said the force had intelligence reports to the effect and was calling on the populace, especially the youths, to be wary of plots to lure them into being involved. "The JTF wishes to draw the attention of the public to an evil plan by notorious militant groups in the state, which have commenced recruitment of youths to replace their lost colleagues with the intent to polarise the state", Musa had stated, adding "Abuloma, Amadi-ama and other areas have been identified as mobilisation centres". It was just a matter of hours after raising the alarm that other security reports revealed and led to the arrest of some sixty-nine suspects in some waterfront areas of Port Harcourt, days after then, another two-hundred and twenty-nine were arrested. It is believed that these arrests might not be unconnected with the militant recruitment drive.


Another reason for the abrupt call-off of the campaign, it was gathered, was the need for groups from Bayelsa and Delta states to return to their bases. These ones have no direct or personal grouse with the administration in Rivers State. Their interest was to make sure that their states do not take cue from the strict pattern, which had virtually rendered their comrades in Rivers wretched as there is no free money. In Rivers, government is determined to be government to the people and is not ready to condone any rivalry from anarchists/hoodlums. Besides, it might not be economically wise for them to continue to lose men and ammunition trying to cover another's flank, with theirs left dangerously opened. So the withdrawal of the other groups from sister states was another decisive setback on a campaign, which had set out with the vow "the operation will continue until the government of Nigeria appreciates that the solution to peace in the Niger Delta is justice, respect and dialogue".


It is believed that if the groups had had it their way, this is not the time to pipe low, they would not have suddenly beat the retreat. As it stands, they still seethe with anger and earnestly look out for some lifeline to get at constituted authorities. Watchers also believe that it is not time yet for security agencies to heave a sigh of relief.


They say security watch should now be broadened beyond where it currently is. It should, it is believed, now be extended to such quarters where militants' current challenge, being dearth of ammunition and other logistics like cash, could be exploited.


According to these observers there sure are those who want to seize any slight slack to cause chaos all in a bid to achieve a personal end, this class would be more than ready to part with any amount to as well as use their influence, as they are actually people of great means by all standards, to make all the logistics these gangs might need available. Situation will not escalate again very soon if the security forces, through the use of high intelligence, can put lids on all these avenues.

source:http://www.tribune.com.ng/28092008/news/news1.html