By Babatope Babalobi
The Osun State Governorship election 2014 has come and gone with a winner emerging and the loser in the typical Nigeria fashion heading for the tribunal to contest the results. But we must not lose sight of the several political lessons we could learnt from the results.

The incumbent All Progressive Congress (APC) Governor Rauf Aregbesola received 394,684 votes in contrast to defeat People Democratic Party (PDP) Iyiola Omisore’s 292,747 votes, a winning difference of 101, 937 votes. The lesson here for the winning party is that the opposition party is still strong in the State. As Aregbesola mounts the saddle for another four years, he should be magnanimous in victory and mindful of the fact that almost 300,000 people in the state voted against him.

Why did Governor Aregbesola receive his highest votes in Oshogbo, the State capital, scoring 39,948 – the highest votes cast for him out of all the 30 Local Governments in the State.? The fact that Oshogbo has the highest number of registered voters may not be sufficient explanation. A more credible explanation is that Oshogbo, the State capital witnessed gargantuan infrastructural transformation – roads beautification, parks etc in the last three and half years under the Aregbesola administration. The lesson here is that the common man though hungry and poor still appreciates good governance. This explains why Governor Aregbesola gained more votes in Oshogbo Local Government, than his home Local Governments – Ilesha East and West. The phenomenon of ‘stomach politics or infrastructure’ that gained prominence after the Ekiti election, seems to been overplayed and exaggerated.

Another curious lesson from the electoral results is that neither of the two leading candidates in the election – Aregbesola and Omisore had a commanding and dominating support from their home local governments. Incumbent Governor Rauf Aregbesola gained a total of 59,328 votes from the five local governments that made up his native Ijeshaland, comprising the following local governments -Ilesha West, Ilesha East, Oriade, Atakumosa East and Atakumosa West. Senator Omisore received 33,011 votes from these five Local Governments, a not too commanding difference of 26,317 in favour of Governor Aregbesola, the home boy.
In the same vein, Omisore received 66,776 votes from the four local governments that make up his immediate political constituency-Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North and Ife South. Aregbesola on the other hand, received 39,913 from these four local governments; a difference of 26,863 in favour of Omisore.

The fourth interestingly revelation of the August 9, 2014 Osun Governorship election result is that the decision of the Omisore camp to pick his running mate from Ede area, did not boost his electoral fortunes, as the APC still led in the total votes cast in Ede North and South -by 27,141 to PDP’s 17,889. Though former Osun state Governor Isiaka Adeleke who crossed over to the APC from PDP is claiming credit for the APC’s fortunes in Edeland, I am of the opinion that this is due more to fact that the office of a Deputy Governor is a ‘separate tyre’ and the electorates is more interested in who becomes Governor. In Nigeria’s democratic dispensation, the State Governors are tin-gods, and their Deputies glorified personal Assistants. As such picking a running mate from a particular zone may not necessarily translate into electoral fortunes.

Fifth, the religious card, which many thought would work against Rauf Aregbesola, probably worked in his favour. The incumbent Governor received his three highest votes from local governments with large muslin population – Oshogbo – 39,948 votes, Iwo – 21,093 votes, and Irewole (with Ikire as capital town) – 18,328 votes. Unlike Rauf Aregbesola who is a staunch Muslim with sympathies for Christians and traditionalists; Omisore belongs to the Catholic Church which is not as strong rooted in the South West compared with the status the church enjoys in Eastern Nigeria. It is also not a hidden fact, that Anglicans or Pentecostal Christian, who are the mainstream denominations in Osun are not tightly bound with Catholics. Coupled with this is the general apathy of the average Christian to politics compared to their political activism of their muslin counterparts. As such, Omisore could not receive block votes from the Christian community, while Aregebesola enjoy overwhelming support from the Muslim dominated towns of Ikire, Iwo, Ikirun, Ejigbo, Ede etc.

Sixth, Governor Aregbesola won popular votes across the local governments of Osun State. Apart from winning in 22 out of 30 local government, Aregbesola received his highest votes outside his Ijeshaland, his home base. He received his highest votes from Oshogbo -39,948, 2nd highest from Iwo - 21,093 votes, and 3rd highest in Irewole -18, 328 votes. In contrast, his leading opponent, Iyiola Omisore was more of a local champion; he secured his two highest votes casts within his Ife constituency – Ife Central – 24,555, Ife East – 20,868. It is also noteworthy, that Governor Aregbesola scored 10,000+ votes in 16 Local Government Areas, while Iyiola Omisore scored 10,000+ votes in 11 Local Government Areas.

The APC hues and cries of plans by the PDP to rig the election were beneficial as it put everyone on the alert and ensured vigilance. Also the heavy security presence that the party complained against was to its benefit, as electoral malpractices could have occurred with lesser security presence.

What is the explanation for former Governor Oyinlola’s loss of Odo-Otin Local Government in spite of the hype over his decampment to APC few days before the election? Oyinlola is probably a victim of power play by the PDP big wigs likely mobilized resources to ensure the former PDP National Secretary was disgraced and embarrassed in his home base, thereby parading him as irrelevant and paper weight. This is a conjecture, but there could be many other explanations.

Lastly, what would have PDP done better or right in order to win the August 9, 2014 Governorship election? First, it is herculean to defeat a performing incumbent Governor skilled in grassroots mobilization. Second, APC’s alarm about the opposition’s rigging plans, the neutrality and increased efficiently of the Independent Electoral Commission, coupled with the water tight security made rigging difficult, unattractive, and risky. Third, Omisore is a recycled PDP Governorship candidate whose political fortune have been witnessing diminishing returns over the years. If Iyiola Omisore had not been over ambitious and desperate to become a Governor as exemplify by his decision to run for the umpteenth time for the Governorship, a candidate with better electoral value would have emerged from the opposition party. The decision of the PDP to pick its Governorship candidate from the same senatorial district the incumbent Governor comes from is politically suicidal. PDP’s joker could have been a Muslim candidate with strong popularity rating within the Osun West - Central Senatorial axis. A strong candidate from another senatorial district could have benefitted from the bulk high votes of the Oshogbo – Iwo – Ikire – Ejigbo – Ede Ikirun axis and gave Governor Aregbesola a better run.


Babatope Babalobi is the Coordinator of the Movement for Revolutionary Change
https://www./298580463531356/
babalobi@yahoo.com +2348035897435