Eurasia, the global political risk and consulting firm, has upgraded its short-term trajectory on Nigeria from negative to neutral, as it projects that President Goodluck Jonathan has a 75-percent chance of re-election in February 2015.

Eurasia says this is likely to put a floor on downside risks to the economy as the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) steadily consolidates under the president.

According to Philippe de Pontet, Africa director at New York-based Eurasia Group, “Nigeria will muddle through after all, without too much investment-relevant risk.”

Eurasia notes in a new report that the next six months in Nigeria will be tense, however.

“This will not resolve Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, but reduces the likelihood that the campaign season will completely upend the investment climate or reverse the country’s economic momentum. Over the next six months, we envision policy stagnation, but not sharp backsliding,” it further says.

A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel, according to Eurasia.

“Political risks are already elevated so our neutral forecast starts from a high-risk baseline. Downside pressures that could push our trajectory back in a negative direction would include some combination of an oil shock (price or production), a disorderly response to Fed tapering, a new wave of defections from the PDP, a sharp escalation (and southern creep) by Boko Haram and a prolonged rise of sectarian or political violence,” the report says.

De Pontet states that the upgrade is based on Eurasia’s methodology for assessing political risk trajectory (six months out and two years out).

It is expected by Eurasia that the pre-election period will be marked by patronage politics, constant politicking, and attacks by Boko Haram, oil theft, and policy stagnation, but they are not expected to undermine national stability or derail Jonathan’s candidacy.

Furthermore, the risk of fiscal or monetary policy upheaval under Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala or CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele is relatively low, limiting downside risk.

Nigeria has in the last year seen dramatic events in the lead to the general elections that have spelt a political quandary at times for the two leading political parties, APC and PDP, as they both engaged in an intense contest of political checkmate.

APC emerged as a political game changer after scoring high profile defections from the PDP, soon after the controversial merger of its parties, ACN and CPC.

However, the political storm it raised has started to settle with the loss of an election in Ekiti State where it previously won the election, the impeachment of one of its governors Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State, a governor who defected from the PDP to the APC, on charges of misconduct and violation of the constitution, and as high profile defections from the opposition APC to the ruling PDP occurred.

Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s former anti-corruption chief, Buba Mohammed Marwa, a former military governor of Lagos, and Ibrahim Shekarau, a one-time opposition governor of Kano State and founding member of APC, have all defected from APC to PDP.

Jonathan has faced criticism from the opposition and citizens for failing to check corruption, contain a raging Islamist insurgency in the country’s north and deliver on promises of economic reform. All these have hurt Jonathan’s standing in the run-up to the elections.

However, Ribadu’s defection has been seen as a boost for the PDP.

Ribadu “helps boost confidence in the PDP because it’s a demonstration of their current political strength”, says Thomas Horn Hansen, senior Africa analyst at London-based Control Risks.

“It’s a political coup for the PDP over the APC,” he says.

“Ribadu’s defection to the PDP is a blow to the opposition on multiple fronts,” de Pontet said. “It’s a setback for the APC’s self-promoted brand as a true alternative to the ruling party.”

YINKA ABRAHAM

http://businessdayonline.com/2014/08/eurasia-upgrades-nigeria-to-neutral-on-jonathan-re-election-prospects

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We all knew this fact 3 years ago. Jonah's reelection was guaranteed.

The truth remains that no level of opposition av this moment can stop Gej re-election bid. The vacancy that some people feel exists in Aso Rock is inexistent for now. I cant forsee it in the year 2015