For those who are upbeat about the chances of
the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan
winning re-election if he decides to run, I have
bad news for them. The President may not only
lose in 2015, he could lose by a landslide even
with the incumbency factor perceived to be in
his favour. Let’s even consider a massive
defeat of an incumbent impossibility; he could
still be edged out by a narrow margin. Indeed
all evidence point to the first shocking defeat of
an incumbent in a presidential election in the
country. For the first time ever, it seems the
incumbency effect may not matter. While I
acknowledge the usual arguments about the
incumbent advantage; 2015 may yet prove to
be an exception.
Why do I think so? If the supporters of the
President can just sit back and remove the
scale of sycophancy from their eyes and
honestly assess the situation in the country,
they will see that in a free and fair election, the
President does not stand a chance. I think they
may be in for a rude shock. Those who fancy
an easy win for Jonathan may have failed to
appreciate the enormity of the challenges
stacked against his re-election. But supporters
of the administration seem to have been living
in denial all this while. For them the President’s
victory is a foregone conclusion. Not quite.
Their optimism seems buoyed by the gale of
endorsements by some phony groups and
intimidated Peoples Democratic Party
governors who seem not to have any choice
anyway. Supporters of the administration have
also trumpeted what they considered to be
some achievements of the President. But it
appears the so-called achievements are known
only to them alone. As for Nigerians, it has
been a case of the more you look, the less you
see when it comes to assessing this
administration. In the ultimate decider will be
Nigerian voters.
Despite the huge arsenal of funds and state
machinery at the disposal of the Jonathan
presidency, politics and life often have other
plans. This is what recent elections have
taught us. The reality is, incumbents can be
defeated. It may happen in 2015 – in a few
months from now, President Jonathan will find
out whether he will be keeping his job. For
most voters, their choice will ultimately come
down to how they expect either a new
president or Jonathan to run the affairs of our
country in the next four years. Unfortunately for
Jonathan, he does not seem to have much of a
presidential record, and a review of it leaves
little doubt that Nigerians may want to fire him.
Let me make it clear for people reading this,
especially supporters of this administration, the
laziest thing will be to dismiss my thoughts as
the ranting of a hater of the President or an
opposition hatchet job. Far from it, I am
completely apolitical. One does not need a
crystal ball to see the realities of why President
Jonathan should be preparing his handover
note. Or shouldn’t he? Here are my reasons.
The first is in the changing demographics.
Increasingly as we progress in our democratic
experience, it is becoming clear that it is the
voters that will ultimately determine the fate of
candidates.
In the past, defeating incumbents was
unthinkable. Incumbents held what proverbialy
could be called the yam and the knife – but not
anymore. We have the situation where sitting
Presidents deploy state machinery to induce
and coerce all electoral institutions. In recent
governorship elections incumbents have been
beaten while some held on to their post by a
thin margin. It is no longer easy to steal the
people’s mandate. Now if elections are not won
by ballot, one can be sure the courts will
overturn any stolen mandate. The trend will
surely continue in 2015. If the situation
persists, President Jonathan may be Nigeria’s
first one-term President. Not even the rallies
being held across the country in support of the
President may help the re-election. In 2015, the
President will be assessed by his performance
in the last five years. A look at history has
shown that if President Jonathan loses, he will
not be the first incumbent to do so. There have
been nearly a dozen one term Presidents who
ran for second terms but were denied by voters,
in the United States, for example, there have
been three one-term presidents since World
War II. The most recent one-term president
who lost his re-election bid was George H.W.
Bush, a Republican who lost to Democrat Bill
Clinton in 1992. Republican George H.W. Bush
was the 41st President of the United States,
serving from 1989 to 1993.
He lost a campaign for re-election in 1992 to
Democrat, Bill Clinton. Bush’s official White
House biography describes his re-election loss
this way: “Despite unprecedented popularity
from this military and diplomatic triumph, Bush
was unable to withstand discontent at home
from a faltering economy and continued high
deficit spending.’’ Though some of the one-
term US presidents lost due to the prevailing
economic, political and social factors of their
time; those factors will pale into insignificance
when juxtaposed with the failures of the
Jonathan presidency. If any of the US
presidents had been Jonathan, they would not
have even made the mid-term election as they
would have been impeached. Unfortunately, we
have legislative arms that are largely part of the
rot.
But in spite of ongoing propaganda, Nigerians
seem to have become wiser—more discerning.
They may express their displeasure with this
administration in 2015. I have written in this
column that the next election may yet be a
protest vote by a people tired of this
administration’s arrogance, contempt and
disdain for their welfare as a people. What will
be the greatest obstacle in the path of
Jonathan’s re-election is his attitude to
corruption. Needless to say that Nigerians have
become embarrassed by how corruption
scandals at home and abroad have taken a toll
on their country’s reputation.
What is worse is Jonathan’s denial of
corruption as the cause of our
underdevelopment. In several public
statements, the President had declared, much
to the bewilderment of Nigerians, that
corruption is not Nigeria’s problem. The
President must know that Nigerians are
seriously angry about his ‘body language’ to
corruption when allegations of corruption
continue to taint his government. This
President has too much baggage going into an
election year. They will certainly hurt his re-
election chances.
For example, Nigerians are scandalised by the
President’s refusal to probe the ongoing cash-
for-arm scandals rocking his administration.
That he has continued to maintain silence even
as these allegations continue to taint the
integrity of his administration is unnerving to
Nigerians. Meanwhile, under this
administration, all the agencies meant to fight
corruption have also gone comatose. Perhaps
it is not a coincidence that this is happening
under his Presidency. The lack of leadership
and the damage inflicted on Nigerians living in
the North-East by the administration’s delay to
confront growing insecurity has had its
attendant consequences. The President is
going into the election as a largely unpopular
candidate. Can Nigerians afford four more years
of Jonathan? Something tells me that we may
have seen the last of the Jonathan’s
presidency. I will be surprised if he is re-
elected.


http://www.punchng.com/opinion/2015-why-jonathan-may-lose-as-an-incumbent/

@poster I was itching to reply, that I must honestly confess that I didn't read the entire article word for word. You made valid arguments as to other 1 term presidents in the USA with the most recent being George Bush. The important issues are
1. The Nigerian economy seems to be doing fairly ok i.e with the recent rebasing of the economy that puts Nigeria as the biggest economy in Africa and I think the 26th largest globally is enough reason to secure the incumbent another tenure in office although it can also be argued that the economic transformation all started long before his watch.
2. SURE-P is clearly another deal breaker considering the enormous infrastructural gap that Jonathan's government inherited and has had to upscale with Martin Luther Agwai as helmsman of the fund.
the list goes on and on and its my belief Jona is definitely coming back by the grace of God.

It is so embarrassing that Mr. Jonathan will have the effrontery to be on the ballot and seek reelection in 2015, despite his acute failure, incompetency and gross cluelessness. Anyway, we shall disgrace him using the instrument of the ballot.

Vote Out Jonathan 2015

Vote In Muhammadu Buhari 2015

@OP, you have a few reasonable points that should be of concern in advance democracies but not in Nigeria. Whether you like it or not, this election like the 2011 will be decided by the usual primordial factors. Hausa Fulanis muslims will vote for their man in APC. Northern christian minorities will go GEJ. Yorubas will be divided even as Igbos will vote en masse for the incumbent. 85% southern minorities will go for GEJ.

The only dynamics that can upturn this election is if the APC fields a Northern minority christian presidential candidate, in which case GEJ will lose that small but decisive chunk of the electorate. But to field Buhari, Atiku, Tambuwal or Elrufai and hope for victory is some what overstretching your luck or prognosis.

Sorry I spent time going through your story and all I see in one word is your perception. No ,Jonathan's supporters are not believing in incumbency nonsense though that helps bring in the numbers. Elections are won on votes cast, occasioned by campaigns coverage, determined by supporters on ground...
I was actually interested seeing where your numbers will come from as I already know where your perception is based on.
Please talk numbers.
I ignore other things you mentioned here cos they are alien to an average Nigerian voter. And voting in any election anywhere in the world boils down to one thing - MONEY, that is "what's there for me".

The Zoologist is heading back to the Zoo. QED.

Wetin the op dey talk about, President GEJ & 2015 Election

This op full my hand oh!

People are talking 2019 and whether or not Sai Sambo/Anyim would sell and you're here talking...

ayukdaboss:


1) Please do you really mean Nigeria becoming the largest economy in Africa is a valid reason to vote the most corrupt administration in Nigeria chaired by GEJ back into power? Wow! Nigerians truly don't know their rights...have you ever sat down to outline how that status has affected your life as a Nigerian? You'll notice that it has barely done so. It has just watered the already fat 'bellies' of our ever thieving politicians.

Even if Nigeria had the largest economy in the world we wouldn't experience any positive change in the country's status quo. Why? Because it'll just be a case of more money for our politicians to steal afterall our President boldly said "Stealing is not corruption".

2) What the fork is SURE-P and please do tell how it has affected your life positively as a Nigerian?

PS: We have to vote this corrupt government out of power next year.

This is bias talking. GEJ administration is not as corrupt as OBJ's so what the he'll are u talking about. Have u 4 gotten how OBJ and his boys were acting g with impunity. Well from ur write up it is now officially known that Nigerians have short term memory loss

Field a tested and trusted Northerner that can easily guarantee millions of votes (Buhari) and a Yoruba that is credible(e.g Fashola) with a lineup of Amaechi, Okorocha, Oshiomole, Kwankwaso and co as "Heirs and next-in-line" to the Presidency and watch Jonathan crumble like the dry bread he is. An agreement where Buhari rules for only one term, Fashola takes over with Okorocha as his vice (to pacify Ibos--- its about time they're put in charge of Nigeria... at least in the nearest future) and Nigeria will be back on track.

People like Atiku have no business being in charge.

drnoel:

This is bias talking. GEJ administration is not as corrupt as OBJ's so what the he'll are u talking about. Have u 4 gotten how OBJ and his boys were acting g with impunity. Well from ur write up it is now officially known that Nigerians have short term memory loss

You clearly have no idea.

GEJ is the most corrupt President Nigeria--- probably Africa--- has ever seen!

ISpiksDaTroof:


You clearly have no idea.

GEJ is the most corrupt President Nigeria--- probably Africa--- has ever seen!

Really? Ur bosses in APC must be working overtime. Janja.weed all the way cos u people can't get the presidency in 2015.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Field a tested and trusted Northerner that can easily guarantee millions of votes (Buhari) and a Yoruba that is credible(e.g Fashola) with a lineup of Amaechi, Okorocha, Oshiomole, Kwankwaso and co as "Heirs and next-in-line" to the Presidency and watch Jonathan crumble like the dry bread he is. An agreement where Buhari rules for only one term, Fashola takes over with Okorocha as his vice (to pacify Ibos--- its about time they're put in charge of Nigeria... at least in the nearest future) and Nigeria will be back on track.

People like Atiku have no business being in charge.

What about:
Field a tested and trusted SOUTHERNER that can easily guarantee millions of votes (Amaechi) and credible Hausa-man like Kwankwaso
and line up Fashola, Oshiomole, and co as "Heirs and next-in-line" to the Presidency

You see your sef

drnoel:

Really? Ur bosses in APC must be working overtime. Janja.weed all the way cos u people can't get the presidency in 2015.

Seriously, why the hell do you kids have to sound so stu*pid all the damn time?!

drnoel:

This is bias talking. GEJ administration is not as corrupt as OBJ's so what the he'll are u talking about. Have u 4 gotten how OBJ and his boys were acting g with impunity. Well from ur write up it is now officially known that Nigerians have short term memory loss

It won't really be fair to OBJ comparing the level of corruption in his PDP led administration to that of GEJs PDP led government.

Stealing is not corruption - Dr Otuoke.

Join PDP and you're automatically exonerated from all former corruption/stealing charges. What a shame.

gtrust:


What about:
Field a tested and trusted SOUTHERNER that can easily guarantee millions of votes (Amaechi) and credible Hausa-man like Kwankwaso
and line up Fashola, Oshiomole, and co as "Heirs and next-in-line" to the Presidency

You see your sef

How is Amaechi tested and trusted? How many votes can he guarantee? From where and where? How is Kwankwaso credible? Why Line up Fashola when he's the only Nigerian Governor that has been worth praising even by Western media because of his achievements that has been head and shoulders when compared to his peers?

Listen boy, you need to get tribalism and bigotry out of your system.

P.S: Its obvious why you're scared of a Buhari Presidency. I also went through your previous posts. Change your mentality. Hate kills.. or it will cause you to get killed.

ISpiksDaTroof:


Seriously, why the hell do you kids have to sound so stu*pid all the damn time?!

Just cos ur APC bosses are frustrating u doesn't make it right to insult ur seniors.

drnoel:


Just cos ur APC bosses are frustrating u doesn't make it right to insult ur seniors.

Now you're just being a troll, wasting time, electricity, diesel and megabytes when you could be using it to add something valuable to your life. Why don't you do something useful like go online and see how others your age in well run countries are living their lives and try to demand your Govt provides same for you?

Or just go watch po*rn if you got nothing else to do?

ISpiksDaTroof:


How is Amaechi tested and trusted? How many votes can he guarantee? From where and where? How is Kwankwaso credible? Why Line up Fashola when he's the only Nigerian Governor that has been worth praising even by Western media because of his achievements that has been head and shoulders when compared to his peers?

Listen boy, you need to get tribalism and bigotry out of your system.

P.S: Its obvious why you're scared of a Buhari Presidency. I also went through your previous posts. Change your mentality. Hate kills.. or it will cause you to get killed.

You see yourself

So, if I don't support your Buhari: "it will cause you to get killed"

Bookmark this page, GEJ is not loosing to nobody! It's not about his performance or your logic

ISpiksDaTroof:


How is Amaechi tested and trusted? How many votes can he guarantee? From where and where? How is Kwankwaso credible? Why Line up Fashola when he's the only Nigerian Governor that has been worth praising even by Western media because of his achievements that has been head and shoulders when compared to his peers?

Listen boy, you need to get tribalism and bigotry out of your system.

P.S: Its obvious why you're scared of a Buhari Presidency. I also went through your previous posts. Change your mentality. Hate kills.. or it will cause you to get killed.

I thought Amaechi, Kwankwasor, Fashola etc are ALL equal members of YOUR party, the APC
So, Buhari is now "more equal" than others that you wouldn't even consider them and you want to start a war and "kill people" if your own party members are suggested as credible

You see yourself

ISpiksDaTroof:


Now you're just being a troll, wasting time, electricity, diesel and megabytes when you could be using it to add something valuable to your life. Why don't you do something useful like go online and see how others your age in well run countries are living their lives and try to demand your Govt provides same for you?

Or just go watch po*rn if you got nothing else to do?

For ur correction am home after a hard day at work enjoying my wireless Internet, drinking a bottle of black bier and eating pizza. I added value to other people's lives today 4 which am glad just like I will add value to ur life by converting u from ur APC ideologies. About my acting like a troll, I don't know anything about that but then again. U would know a troll won't u cos ur probably of the same race.

Demdem:


Will ur shut ur trap. Must jonaadaft administration be corrupt at all? So because obj was corrupt, the otuokpe fool must also be right? Oponu.

Can this be taken as an admission of the fact that GEJ's administration is LESS corrupt than OBJ's, particularly considering the level of infrastructure construction/revival in the past three years or so

Demdem:


Will ur shut ur trap. Must jonaadaft administration be corrupt at all? So because obj was corrupt, the otuokpe fool must also be right? Oponu.

More APC stooges. U think insults get things done then u really must be dumber than ur handle.

ISpiksDaTroof:


Listen boy, you need to get tribalism and bigotry out of your system.

Change your mentality. Hate kills.. or it will cause you to get killed.

I can't believe you wrote this! Kettle calling the pot black. Most of your posts reeks of tribalism. Some people may not notice it, but it's there.

Transformation agenda........quote me an see yourself in hell!!!

.

barcanista:
It is so embarrassing that Mr. Jonathan will have the effrontery to be on the ballot and seek reelection in 2015, despite his acute failure, incompetency and gross cluelessness. Anyway, we shall disgrace him using the instrument of the ballot.

Vote Out Jonathan 2015

Vote In Muhammadu Buhari 2015

The fact that you apparently have reasons to believe that GEJ may lose the elections next year is yet another feather to Johny Boy's already brimming hat.

His efforts in designing an environment where elections are meaningful and where the "I" in INEC actually means independent is even more important than his already monumental economic and infractural achievements.

I am happy that the vast majority of Nigerians realize these unassailable achievements and recent polls indicate that a landslide victory is a forgone conclusion.

Curlieweed:


The fact that you apparently have reasons to believe that GEJ may lose the elections next year is yet another feather to Johny Boy's already brimming hat.

His efforts in designing an environment where elections are meaningful and where the "I" in INEC actually means independent is even more important than his already monumental economic and infractural achievements.

I am happy that the vast majority of Nigerians realize these unassailable achievements and recent polls indicate that a landslide victory is a forgone conclusion.

Ordinarily, one shd vote and go home but because of the perpetual fraud in the system by Mr. Jonathan and his party, the electorates are asked to vote, wait and tweet the results per polling unit. If Mr. Jonathan was a serious President, such extra stress will not be necessary.

Your attempt to score a cheap point for Mr. Jonathan is wharped and dead on arrival