eagleeye2:

Abeg, do you truely believe that Osibanjo, is Tinubu's preferred choice? After the gamble that happened with Bakare in 2011. If so then, I may have had an exaggerated opinion of Tinubu.

olatunji21:

Definitely not.. Now lets look this on a state by state basis.. (South West only)
OSun state voted for Ribadu irrespective of Tinubu's directive for all agent to back down in 2011..Am most certain Buhari would also nick it this time around. No Tinubu Factor
Oyo state, the Governor is still battling for his Soul here, i school in I.B, the body language of the people over here is surely in favour of Buhari..and also the incumbent has little say on this, he himself is not safe yet... No Tinubu Factor
Lagos state, surely here Tinubu call the shot but i stil believe that irrespective of Tinubu's Sellout, the general should be able to get a respectable amount of vote..Possible Tinubu Factor
Ondo State-Here Mimiko has successfully brandish tinubu as An "Ajele" who wants to impose his stooge on the state because of their oil.. No Tinubu Factor here too
Ekiti-I believe the people of Ekiti voted fayose not because fayemi has not done well but because he refused to share the money.They wanted a Man of the people which sadly Tinubu does not represent.

alakara:


Bros, I kept wondering what will make APC present Osibanjo with zero political clout is to sell APC out to PDP.
Tinubu doing his thing since 1914.
Kaka ki eku ma je sese a ooo fi se awada nu nii.

donmalcolm21:
This goes a long way to show you the desperation of Tinubu and how far he will go to achieve his ambition. I still belive 2011 will repeat itself again.

hizroyalflynes:
I can pretend to to accept ur permutations but omisore rigged thanks to GEJ is a big fat lie
Apart from the fact that ife can't turn their back to their son whom they truly appreciate even upon d blackmailing to damage his image after they are instrumental to akande, oyinlola even aregbe himself emergence as d gov
Expect u wanna sidelined the truth votes count under GEJ U can't tell me d number 1 citizen can't rig an election to his favor

Ahmeduana:

NA WETIN YOU EXPECT BEFORE? TINUBU IS YORUBA PERSONIFICATION OF (odale) I JUST DEY PITY BUHARI TINUBU DON ALREADY SELL AM COLLECT MONEY!

fagin1982:
2011 Presidential Elections result

BAYELSA:
PDP 504 811
CPC 691


BENUE
PDP 658, 472
CPC 102171

ANAMBRA:
PDP 1, 145, 169
CPC 4, 223


KATSINA:
PDP 424, 587
CPC 1, 154, 000

KEBBI:
PDP 369, 198
CPC 501, 453

ABIA:
PDP 1, 175, 984
CPC 3, 743

EDO:
PDP 542, 173
CPC, 17, 795

JIGAWA:
PDP 414,000
CPC 663,063

KADUNA:
PDP 1, 190, 179
CPC 1, 334, 244

DELTA:
PDP 1, 368, 851
CPC 8, 960

EBONYI:
PDP 480, 592
CPC 1,025

ENUGU:
PDP 802, 144
CPC 3,753

FCT:
PDP 254, 444
CPC 131, 576

LAGOS:
PDP 1, 281, 688
CPC 189, 983

OYO:
PDP 484, 758
CPC 92, 396

RIVERS:
PDP 1, 817, 762
CPC 13, 182

KANO:
PDP 440, 656
CPC 1, 624, 543

SOKOTO:
PDP 309,057
CPC 540,769

KWARA:
PDP 268, 243
CPC 83, 603

ONDO:
PDP: 387,376
CPC: 11, 890

OGUN:
PDP: 309,177
CPC: 17,654

OSUN:
PDP: 188,409
CPC: 6,997

KOGI:
PDP: 399, 816
CPC: 132, 201

BAUCHI:
PDP 250, 840
CPC 1, 315, 205

AKWA IBOM:
PDP 1, 165, 629
CPC 148

*Muhammadu Buhari records huge wins in Sokoto, Kebbi, Borno, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Bauchi, Kaduna, Niger and Jigawa.

*Goodluck Jonathan records wins in the entire SE, SS, South West minus Osun, which went to ACN, FCT Abuja, Adamawa, Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Taraba and Kwara


2015 Elections will follow same pattern with slight differences..
Buhari ll struggle but wont win
The odds favour Jonathan

eagleeye2:

Nice analysis. And I believe that this is the reason Tinubu wanted to be VP, to keep Buhari on leash. But having failed at getting that slot, I doubt if Tinubu wouldn't sell out at the "right price".

chronique:
If Buhari doesn't see Tinubu as a good market,I wonder how the APC folks in the south-west can't see same.

LordVarys:
Call it the many nights of long knives, it still may not sufficiently capture the intrigues, betrayals, sellouts and drama that typified the various meetings which ultimately culminated in the choice of a former Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice in Lagos State, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, as the All Progressives Congress (APC) deputy to the presidential standard-bearer of the party, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari.

With barely 24 hours to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deadline for the submission of names of candidates by political parties, the name Osinbajo, which had been making the rounds as the alternative choice, finally got the official stamp of approval of the general to run with him on the party’s ticket.

Practically all but the last meeting convened for the choice of a running mate for Buhari had failed for one reason: the reported interest of a former governor of Lagos State and one of the national leaders of the party, Bola Tinubu, who made a poor show of concealing his desire for the job.

At each of those meetings, Tinubu, who yesterday said he turned down Buhari’s offer to be his running mate, was said to have made the emergence of a generally acceptable choice that excluded him impossible.

For Tinubu, party sources alleged that he saw his probable ascension to the vice-presidency as an opportunity to be “compensated” for his incontrovertible role in the establishment of a strong and viable APC, a move other members of the party, including the governors, had opposed on the grounds that he would be a hard sell to the Nigerian public.

To exemplify his all-consuming desire for the job, Tinubu was said to have attended one of the meetings with the South-west leaders of the party last weekend and told his audience a story of how Buhari had agreed to field him as his running mate.
According to him, all he needed was the consent of those at the meeting in writing, in order to convince the retired general that he (Tinubu) also had the support of the South-west caucus to emerge as his running mate.

Ostensibly, however, he was purported to have conjured the story following the honour accorded him by Buhari to choose the running mate and put himself forward for the position. But this, a majority of those at the meeting saw through, compelling one of governors to say if his statement was true, “Buhari has picked you,then you don’t need our signatures to get our support”.

Unfortunately for him, some of those at the meeting were uncomfortable with the fact that he wanted to get them to sign a communiqué, which he would have taken to Buhari, informing him that his people in the South-west, majority of whom are governors, had asked that he be fielded as the vice-presidential candidate. In Tinubu's estimation, the story would have been difficult to refute in order not to embarrass him nor put the party in a fix.

When it became clear to Tinubu that his people had effectively opposed his emergence as Buhari’s deputy, he reportedly broke down in tears, moaning that their stance would render him insignificant in the scheme of things if he was neither allowed the opportunity to field himself nor present a candidate of his choice.“We told him frankly: ‘Look, we love you as our oga but Nigerians don’t.' We told him we could not sell him because one, he is a Muslim and two, other issues might emerge from the woodworks that could be embarrass him and the party.“When it suddenly dawned on him that his goal was slipping from his grasp, he broke down in tears,” alleged a source, who also claimed that it was at that point everyone gave in to his demands that the post of Buhari’s running mate be zoned to the South-west and he should be allowed to pick someone else in his stead.

His despondency was further compounded after Monday’s nocturnal meeting where the parameters were clearly defined for the selection of a running mate. At this juncture, Tinubu may have thought that he had been completely schemed out and again sought the understanding of the South-west caucus of the APC to give him a soft landing by allowing him to decide who deputises for Buhari, regardless of his political baggage. With their backing, he dug deep.

[b]So while other vice-presidential hopefuls were being bandied as possible running mates, Tinubu ensured that the post of vice president never left the South-west, and made a last ditch effort to secure the position for himself.

In this regard, on Tuesday, he was said to have met with Buhari, who was at this point at his wits end with the pressure that had been brought to bear on the selection of his running mate.

Buhari, during the meeting, was said to have told Tunubu in clear terms that he would neither run with him nor accept a Muslim-Muslim pairing, adding that if he pushed it too hard, he (Buhari) might be compelled to stand down even as the party’s candidate.When Tinubu tried to make Buhari see things his way, a shouting match ensued, compelling the general to walk out on Tinubu so that the situation would not degenerate. It was against this backdrop that the former Lagos governor allegedly rushed back to his people to push for the emergence of Osinbajo.Seeing that Buhari was unyielding, Tinubu and the South-west caucus was left with no option than to unanimously back Osinbajo as the alternative option who was presented to Buhariand subsequently approved by him in order to meet today’s deadline for the submission of candidates’ names.[/b]

To political observers, Tinubu, with his overt desire, covert antics and brinksmanship, may have secured a diminished victory. But of greater significance, he has had a taste of what it means to manage and square up against the contending interests and forces at play in a truly large national party.In the days of yore, he could dictate the pace and rhythm of his more malleable, regional Action Congress (AC) and later Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). With APC, he was shown that he can no longer pull the strings like a puppet master behind the scenes as he deems fit.With Osinbajo’s selection for the number two slot, it remains to be seen if Tinubu’s latest gamble will do his party and Buhari’s chances in the contest against the Jonathan/Sambo ticket any good. In the final analysis, the answer to this lies with the Nigerian electorate.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/-Osinbajo-s-emergence-the-drama-the-intrigues/197056/

PapaBrowne:
Tinubu is not a happy man. He would have become candidate if not for Amaechi and his crew.

Tinubu is a very wise man who understands politics. What he has done by presenting Osibanjo(an literally unknown person with zero political clout), is to position himself for a sellout to GEJ in order to safeguard Lagos as well as prepare for 2019 where his chances would be much higher as there would be no incumbent to deal with.

When it became clear to Tinubu that his people had effectively opposed his emergence as Buhari’s deputy, he reportedly broke down in tears, moaning that their stance would render him insignificant in the scheme of things.

In this regard, on Tuesday, he was said to have met with Buhari, who was at this point at his wits end with the pressure that had been brought to bear on the selection of his running mate.

Buhari, during the meeting, was said to have told Tunubu in clear terms that he would neither run with him nor accept a Muslim-Muslim pairing, adding that if he pushed it too hard, he (Buhari) might be compelled to stand down even as the party’s candidate. When Tinubu tried to make Buhari see things his way, a shouting match ensued, compelling the general to walk out on Tinubu so that the situation would not degenerate.

And what are they all signing below ?

PassingShot:


His analysis was even wrong to start with.

I doubt Tinubu has the audacity to sellout this time around since he still nominated the VP at the end of the day.

hizroyalflynes:

I can pretend to to accept ur permutations but omisore rigged thanks to GEJ is a big fat lie
Apart from the fact that ife can't turn their back to their son whom they truly appreciate even upon d blackmailing to damage his image after they are instrumental to akande, oyinlola even aregbe himself emergence as d gov
Expect u wanna sidelined the truth votes count under GEJ
U can't tell me d number 1 citizen can't rig an election to his favor

hizroyalflynes:

Osun isn't a play ground for APC trust me
PDP isn't done yet
Even upon loosing top members to APC
APC still have to rely on deputy LG to win Aug 9 gubernatorial election which is still been challenge in d court (voters larger than those that reg)
One thing that will also help is d gov acceptability... Aregbe in 2011 isn't the same in 2014,he was predicted to be the next big thing after Fashola... apart from workers, teachers that are against him, Apc in osun isn't 1,while pdp seems to be getting it right.. These are factors that decide where votes go to APC might still win but by a little margin (incumbent power if APC don't loose tribunal case b4 general election)
Ondo
Even APC can't match labour party in d state not to talk of PDP.. PDP will win this d margin I don't know
Ekiti.
With fayose credibility still selling real fast like aregbe in 2011 which I don't think we run out till general election.. PDP will by a wide margin
Ib
The gov feet is shaking tho ur prediction will likely be the outcome... Buh LP might align with pdp nd if Akala accept to work with pdp ogbomoso alone is already lost to Pdp
Ogun
I. Can't really predict this but the defection of the deputy and some top members won't help APC.. But I think APC will win this
Lagos
If Tinubu don't sell out APC will win by a great deal of margin but pdp will gather some votes thanks to Igbo ideology wen itz tym to vote
At the end NC will decide who wins nt S/W

allcomage:
As a person who doesn't like our brand of democracy ,who feels restructuring this country is most important and a silent observer of the polity,the apc is being carried away with so much optimism.They have a lot of work to do. My questions are? Is 2015 about gmb and southwest alone? Do they think 2015 is a done deal for them? The frenzy about gmb and Southwest is becoming nauseating.I don't see other components of the country being carried along in these schemings. South West has been exposed as a battle ground leaving a swat of middle belt ,Ss and se as inconsequential but they hold the ace. This election will not be decided on social media platforms as less than 1% of Nigerians are on social media,the bulk of voters have their cards to be swayed by ethnicity and religion when the chips are down. The whole scenario is beginning to look as if the southwest is scheming to grab power so soon after obj left yesterday. I believe the outcome of 2015 election will shock Nigerians,it is then they will understand the Nigeria brand of democracy.

ziccoit:
Osinbajo choice as a VP is another political masterstroke coming from APC. I don't know why I'm so comfortable with it.

Descartes:


Do you know Tinubu has the largest political structures in the present day Nigeria especially in the Southwest region?

He knows Buhari and his antecedents right from the Military era. And Buhari might attempt to tame him if he eventually climbs the Aso Rock stool.

Let's see how it goes cos this game is meant for the political wizards who are certified propagandists, blackmailers, backstabbers, grassroot mobilizers and lobbyists which Buhari and GEJ lack.

Cogito ergo sum


Wisdom is a function of Humility and indeed the Principle thing

VirginFinder:
Poor Tinubu!
I wish he had clinched the VP ticket as a reward for all his efforts.

He'd have been a thorn in Buhari's flesh. Also, he would have enjoyed immunity from a possible Buhari probe.
Buhari sensed this and quickly made a u-turn on having him.
You all know that the engagement this time around is totally different from what was on The table in 2011. The stakes is higher now for Tinubu, so in The light of this he will not sell out.

Now the stage is set for a sellout. I doubt he'll be successful this time.

allcomage:
As a person who doesn't like our brand of democracy ,who feels restructuring this country is most important and a silent observer of the polity,the apc is being carried away with so much optimism.They have a lot of work to do. My questions are? Is 2015 about gmb and southwest alone? Do they think 2015 is a done deal for them? The frenzy about gmb and Southwest is becoming nauseating.I don't see other components of the country being carried along in these schemings. South West has been exposed as a battle ground leaving a swat of middle belt ,Ss and se as inconsequential but they hold the ace. This election will not be decided on social media platforms as less than 1% of Nigerians are on social media,the bulk of voters have their cards to be swayed by ethnicity and religion when the chips are down. The whole scenario is beginning to look as if the southwest is scheming to grab power so soon after obj left yesterday. I believe the outcome of 2015 election will shock Nigerians,it is then they will understand the Nigeria brand of democracy.

ibisko04:

No, my friend. It's not about south west alone. The 2011 elections was decided in south west. If you minus the almost 7milions votes casted for Jonathan out of the total 22m. votes that made Jonathan the winner, you will have 15m. We would have gone for runs off and it would have goes to any side of the divide.