After much personal research, here goes.

1. Abia - GEJ Sweeps, neat. PDP

2. Adamawa - this is a traditional PDP State, and with his humiliation at the APC primaries, Atiku Abubakar will not campaign much for Buhari. Also with a Christian population of 50% or more, GEJ will take it. PDP

3. Akwa Ibom - GEJ neat. PDP

4. Anambra - GEJ neat. PDP

5. Bauchi - Though a PDP State, religious afiliation will work for Buhari. However, PDP will score well over 25% of votes cast. APC

6. Bayelsa - GEJ 100%. PDP

7. Borno - Amodu Sheriff has cult following over here, and being on PDP's team guarantees 25% For GEJ but APC takes it. APC

8. Benue - unshakeably GEJ. PDP

9. Cross River - GEJ, no rival. PDP

10. Delta - GEJ with eyes closed. PDP

11. Ebonyi - GEJ. PDP

12. Enugu - no contest, GEJ. PDP

13. Ekiti - the Fayose effect guarantees GEJ a win. PDP

14. Edo - Lucky igbinedion's 8 years misrule ruined PDP's chances at state elections level, but in presidential elections, Edo always goes with PDP... GEJ will take Edo. PDP

15. Gombe - with a 45% Christian population and their governor's loyalty to GEJ, PDP takes Gombe by a slight margin. PDP

16. Imo - pure GEJ .PDP

17. Jigawa - Buhari all the way. APC

18. Kwara - With Bukola Saraki firmly in Buhari's camp, APC will take Kwara. Though Gbemisola Saraki and Belgore's effort will ensure GEJ gets well over 25% of votes cast. APC

19. Kogi - a PDP state with very strong APC presence, but GEJ will win, by a slight margin. PDP

20. Kano - totally Buhari, no contest. APC

21. Kaduna - in spite of destruction caused by Boko Haram and armed gunmen, Southern Kaduna is devoted to PDP but Northern Kaduna, a seemingly majority is on Buhari's side. Buhari will take Kaduna by 51% while GEJ may keep 49%. APC

22. Katsina - Buhari's home state, APC will take Katsina. However, GEJ's devotion to Yaradua family and Gov Shema's loyalty will earn him well over 25%. APC

23. Kebbi - this state is GEJ's 'poster boy' for his Agricultural programme especially as it concerns rice farming. Kebbi farmers love GEJ and his Agric minister. PDP will take Kebbi but Buhari will have strong showing. PDP (or a 50/50 chance)

24. Lagos - Presently, Bola Tinubu is more worried about the REAL threat posed by a united Jimmy Agbaje and Obanikoro. Cosmopolitan Lagos has always rejected Buhari in his last three outings and it's not going to change this time around. GEJ takes Lagos by as much as 70%. PDP

25. Nasarawa - still habours very strong PDP machinery including the state house of assembly. GEJ takes it. PDP

26. Niger - a PDP State but an APC population. Buhari will take it but IBB's subtle endorsement of GEJ will guarantee far more than 25% for PDP. APC

27. Ogun - a divided APC state with scattered PDP presence. GEJ victory very likely. PDP

28. Oyo - an APC state with very strong smaller parties like LP, Accord, SDP and co, all affiliated directly or indirectly with PDP. GEJ takes Oyo. PDP

29. Osun - Rauf Aregbesola is a strong character that can move his state to the direction he wants i.e Buhari. But the Omisore factor also guarantees GEJ a strong showing, say 40-45%. APC

30. Ondo - PDP, GEJ no contest. PDP

31. Plateau - probably the most devoted PDP state in the Nigerian federation. GEJ wins. PDP

32. Rivers - Even Gov Amaechi knows that APC's days in Rivers are numbered. The shame of being dropped as VP candidate cannot allow Amaechi campaign for Buhari aggresively. GEJ owns Rivers. PDP

33. Sokoto - Sai Buhari. APC

34. Taraba - an unexplainable bond with PDP, GEJ takes this. PDP

35. Yobe - firmly with Buhari. APC

36. Zamfara - may hold some surprises but Buhari will take the day. APC

FCT - slim win by GEJ. PDP

Summary: GEJ/PDP will win in 24 states (plus or minus) and FCT. APC will overwhelmingly sweep 12 states (plus).

Other possible variables include: Kebbi, Kogi, Gombe and Nasarawa going to the APC. However, PDP still emerges victorious.

Conclusion, PDP will win the 2015 Presidential elections.

Do you agree?

Yes we do not

Perfect

You are doing a better job than our pastors (prophets)...

Very accurate!

Na you get am...

Buy there is d likelihood of of GMB being disqualified as a result of education certificates....



Then......


Its sleeping Jonah till 2019



Hurray!

The most near accurate analysis so far.
Nigerian Politics is always at the grassroots and not the media. APC still has a very long way to go in grassroot politics.

I hope its not too cold in France where you just returned from?