Journalism, it is often said, is the "first draft" of history. From all indications this first draft would say the following about President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan: he came unprepared; understood very little of what was going on; and got swept away by forces he could not comprehend.

Never in the history of Nigeria have we been faced with such simple choices. The coming election would be about just two issues: insecurity and corruption. Corruption is even more important because it limits our ability to fight insecurity, or achieve anything else. Of course we all have other complaints. One can mention crass nepotism, incompetence, general mismanagement, an economy in shambles and even political cluelessness among many others. But from all indications PDP and Jonathan are likely to lose the coming elections because of pervasive insecurity and unbridled corruption. They failed to defeat the first, and just reek of the second, from the Villa downwards. Most Nigerians are hoping that, given the chance, retired General Muhammadu Buhari can do something about both.

The truth, they say, will set you free. However, to benefit from this adage we must know what the truth is. We must start from proper definitions and problem identification. Otherwise we end up stewing in our own confusion.

A beneficiary of Nigerian elites' power-play and sharing formula, President Jonathan nevertheless thought he was simply a sectional champion. From day one, when the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) bombed the Eagle Square on Independence Day 2010, killing at least 10 people, seriously injuring 36 others (including 11 policemen), completely destroying six cars, and damaging 18 other vehicles, Jonathan considered it his tribal duty to defend MEND, coming out, before investigations even started, to absolve it of any involvement, blaming instead perceived enemies who were out to get him. Despite MEND's official acceptance of responsibility for that attack, and the subsequent trial and conviction of its leader Henry Okah in South Africa, he never retracted his unfortunate defence of it, nor bothered to apologise. These sectional blinkers had narrowed his vision and affected the war against Boko Haram, and most of his other policies, to this day.

To be fair to him, Jonathan did not create Boko Haram, but he was made to believe it was simply an attempt to punish him by those who lost out in the 2011 elections. He surrounded himself with people who thought it was even possible to benefit from the insurgency, punish a section of the country by crippling it, and building an ethno-religious alliance to secure him re-election. This is where the second factor complicates the story; most sought to benefit personally from the ensuing insecurity and the desire for re-election.

The president came to tolerate all the massive corruption that ensued, and even when people complained of the resulting free-for-all, he was quick to dismiss it saying that there is no corruption but "mere stealing" in Nigeria. Here again he exhibited total inability to see the problem. Corruption, which is worse than mere stealing is, however, the real problem, and this growing cancer could destroy a nation. Stealing is taking something that belongs to someone else illegally or without permission. Extra vigilance can check that or at least limits it. The police could be sufficiently empowered to arrest the culprits, and the courts could punish them. Corruption, on the other hand, refers to the abuse of entrusted power for personal gains. When our elected representatives, appointed officials charged with executive functions, and even the police and the judges abuse those powers entrusted to them to rip us all off then it becomes a different, much more serious matter.

Turning a blind eye to the shenanigans of those who are "with him" he ignored the mess in the NNPC, the sharing of trillions to supporters in the name of "fuel subsidy", the billions spent by his Petroleum Minister to hire jets to fly around despite all the aircrafts owned by agencies under her, the illegal purchase of bullet-proof limousines by her counterpart in Aviation, the fraudulent hiring of consultants to conduct recruitment for a handful of vacancies in some government agencies which led to the death of many applicants, and even the inability to account for some $20 billion "missing" from oil revenues despite some half-hearted "forensic audit". It was indeed, as someone puts it, a "scandal-a-week" government, populated by people who knew that once they could convince the boss of their loyalty they need not fear anything.

Not surprisingly, the chicken has come home to roost; one has to face the consequences of one's mistakes. Government by division has its own logic; it is inherently unstable. Corruption itself has limits. The loot cannot go round to everybody, and even good projects and plans become impossible to execute because most of the funds allocated get diverted. Worst of all, even the over one trillion a year routinely voted for "security" cannot be felt on the ground, while soldiers flee insurgents complaining that they are not properly armed or fully equipped. When a government cannot even guarantee the right to life, the citizens turn elsewhere.

The PDP has ruled for the last fifteen years, and Jonathan for the best part of the last six. They are unable to convince ordinary Nigerians that they have used the time (and the vast resources available) judiciously. There is just no evidence on the ground that our funds were used effectively, honestly or fairly. Electricity, roads, bridges, refineries, water supply, public schools, clinics and hospitals were all poorly addressed, if at all. Insecurity and corruption became the main growth sectors. Lies, denials and funny statistics become articles of faith especially with regards to the economy.

At one stage there were around 5,000 "support groups" pushing for Jonathan's re-elections, many funded directly from the Presidential Villa or by ministers and business people who have benefitted massively from his happy-go-lucky, corruption-tolerant and divisive administration. However, no amount of television adverts, radio jingles, newspaper advertorials or billboards could make up for the disastrous and painful failure to deliver. They have resorted to extreme de-marketing of their political opponents, but it does not seem to be working. We should still expect more cheap dirty-tricks. They have already labelled Buhari a Muslim fundamentalist, out to Islamise Nigeria, and even a Boko Haram supporter. They say he is a semi-literate with no certificates, who may end up jailing people for 300 years for ordinary stealing. All these, and more, are not working. Perhaps they would now look for some Chadian to come out and claim he is Buhari's father.

Even as we await the inevitable, government-commissioned "opinion poll", telling us Jonathan will win the election, let us be ready to take a stand against any attempt to postpone the elections as some are predicting. We have suffered enough from this "transformation agenda." I know the APC is not made up of angels, but they are at least offering us a life-line out of our current predicament. Let us start with fighting Corruption. Other issues can be addressed subsequently. The truth remains; we cannot afford to sit on the fence because, this time around, there is no fence. If we don't do politics, politics will do us.

For those planning to re-locate their families to Dubai, Houston or London before the elections we say safe journey; we dey kampe, as OBJ would say.

Source:
http://allafrica.com/stories/201501131004.html