SLAM DUNK NO ARGUMENT STATES FOR APC

1. Osun - 100% Aregbesola factor) only state Ribadu won in 2011
2. Ogun - Osibanjo homeboy and OBJ factor
3. Katsina - Buhari home turf
4. Jigawa - Buhari home turf
5. Lagos - APC, Tinubu, Fashola, Oba Akiolu factor
6. Kano - Kwankwashiyah, Tofa factor, even Shekarau will vote Buhari.
7. Sokoto - Wammako, Tambuwwal, Sultan factor.
8. Kwara - slam dunk Saraki factor
9. Borno - BH has destroyed PDP image there.
10. Yobe - BH has destroyed PDP image there.
11. Gombe - same as in Borno
12. Oyo - Alaafin factor in Oyo zone, Ibadans factor even Ladoja will.
13. Kebbi - same factor as in Sokoto.
14. Zamfara - same factor as in Sokoto
15. Edo - Oyegun, Oshiobaba too strong for the PDP loafers.
16. Bauchi - Yuguda was in CPC when he won there. 100% Buharian.

PLS NOTE THAT I LEFT OUT RIVERS AND IMO

STATES WHERE APC WILL WIN > 60% CHANCE
17. Niger - IBB and Aliyu know the feeling of the people. Buhari will win flat, guber will be tight
18. Kaduna - El Rufai and Buhari factor. Around 58% for APC though
19. Nasarawa - Al Makura factor, about 57%
20. Adamawa - Atiku factor even Ribadu will vote Buhari for President. Guber will be tight.
21. Ondo - will vote along with the SW for APC; couple with Abdul- Rahamon Mimiko Redeem church loyalty for Osinbajo, his Alhaja Mother etc. Buhari 70%

JONATHAN and PDP WITH BEST chance of winning in:
22. Bayelsa - in the state election, APC will win some seats. BUT a big BUT if Buhari wo on 14 Feb, APC will win the guber election.
23. Abia
24. Enugu
25. Ebonyi
26. Cross Rivers - APC will get 25% for sure though
27. Delta - Itshekiris will dilute PDP dominance though
28. Anambra - Ngige and co will get APC if not Buhari close to 25%.

LEAVING OUT 9 STATES AS BATTLE GROUNDS:

29. Rivers - Amaechi, Ogonis, anti-Wikes factor -will give to APC not Buhari but APC
30. Taraba - Buhari NOT APC factor APC 55%.
31. Imo - sentiments etc but Okorocha will deliver close to 45% if not outright victory. In guber, APC all the way.
32. Plateau - APC factor (maybe not Buhari) will get more than 30%
33. Kogi - Buhari factor and the poor performance of PDP at least 40%
34. Benue - same as in Plateau.
35. Ekiti - despite the grand standing of Fayose, save for his killing squad and rigging threat, ceteris paribus APC will win, 67%.
36. Akwa Ibom - APC factor; not less than 28% for Buhari and likely guber victory.

I M NOT GOD O, JUST A SCIENTIFIC STUDY

OVERALL, Buhari will win close to 69% of the total votes cast. Then the state election will change, and the solid PDP states may become swing states.

Mosesm:
SLAM DUNK NO ARGUMENT STATES FOR APC

1. Osun - 100% Aregbesola factor) only state Ribadu won in 2011
2. Ogun - Osibanjo homeboy and OBJ factor
3. Katsina - Buhari home turf
4. Jigawa - Buhari home turf
5. Lagos - APC, Tinubu, Fashola, Oba Akiolu factor
6. Kano - Kwankwashiyah, Tofa factor, even Shekarau will vote Buhari.
7. Sokoto - Wammako, Tambuwwal, Sultan factor.
8. Kwara - slam dunk Saraki factor
9. Borno - BH has destroyed PDP image there.
10. Yobe - BH has destroyed PDP image there.
11. Gombe - same as in Borno
12. Oyo - Alaafin factor in Oyo zone, Ibadans factor even Ladoja will.
13. Kebbi - same factor as in Sokoto.
14. Zamfara - same factor as in Sokoto
15. Edo - Oyegun, Oshiobaba too strong for the PDP loafers.
16. Bauchi - Yuguda was in CPC when he won there. 100% Buharian.

PLS NOTE THAT I LEFT OUT RIVERS AND IMO

STATES WHERE APC WILL WIN > 60% CHANCE
17. Niger - IBB and Aliyu know the feeling of the people. Buhari will win flat, guber will be tight
18. Kaduna - El Rufai and Buhari factor. Around 58% for APC though
19. Nasarawa - Al Makura factor, about 57%
20. Adamawa - Atiku factor even Ribadu will vote Buhari for President. Guber will be tight.
21. Ondo - will vote along with the SW for APC; couple with Abdul- Rahamon Mimiko Redeem church loyalty for Osinbajo, his Alhaja Mother etc. Buhari 70%

JONATHAN and PDP WITH BEST chance of winning in:
22. Bayelsa - in the state election, APC will win some seats. BUT a big BUT if Buhari wo on 14 Feb, APC will win the guber election.
23. Abia
24. Enugu
25. Ebonyi
26. Cross Rivers - APC will get 25% for sure though
27. Delta - Itshekiris will dilute PDP dominance though
28. Anambra - Ngige and co will get APC if not Buhari close to 25%.

LEAVING OUT 9 STATES AS BATTLE GROUNDS:

29. Rivers - Amaechi, Ogonis, anti-Wikes factor -will give to APC not Buhari but APC
30. Taraba - Buhari NOT APC factor APC 55%.
31. Imo - sentiments etc but Okorocha will deliver close to 45% if not outright victory. In guber, APC all the way.
32. Plateau - APC factor (maybe not Buhari) will get more than 30%
33. Kogi - Buhari factor and the poor performance of PDP at least 40%
34. Benue - same as in Plateau.
35. Ekiti - despite the grand standing of Fayose, save for his killing squad and rigging threat, ceteris paribus APC will win, 67%.
36. Akwa Ibom - APC factor; not less than 28% for Buhari and likely guber victory.

I M NOT GOD O, JUST A SCIENTIFIC STUDY

OVERALL, Buhari will win close to 69% of the total votes cast. Then the state election will change, and the solid PDP states may become swing states.

You are not alone with this thoughtful analysis.

This is a very carefully done analysis. You identified the true battle ground states. Even though you project a win for Buhari, you are wrong as to the margin. Many strong PDP supporters are going to swing Buhari for presidential elections. A lot of people forget that in governorship and presidency you are voting for a person. Buhari has a trust factor that Jonathan lost in six years.

Very lame analysis!

For your information Yuguda won under ANPP not CPC, the only CPC Gov till the merger was Almakura of Nassarawa,

As for Benue I think you need to get informed,

One the APC candidate of the APC was until few days ago a member of GEJ cabinet! So where is the change! INEC has even rejected his candidacy so for now APC does not even have a gov candidate!

As for the presidential Election it's almost 97 % GEJ basically because of the pain the fulani inflicted on our people by hired fulani extremist!

nice work,it has been duly noted.Kindly sit back and await the election results on february 15.I hope you wont come back crying blue murder if t does not go according to this your irrational analysis?

I wonder how the oba of lagos or fashola would decide for me whom i should vote for in lagos.The yeye oba who majority of people in lagos do not even know he exists

even if Buhari was running with rochas as running mate,he would not secure more than 5% of the votes in imo.Rivers is another state that will suprise you,just sit back and watch

chukwudi44:
nice work,it has been duly noted.Kindly sit back and await the election results on february 15.I hope you wont come back crying blue murder if t does not go according to this your irrational analysis?

I wonder how the oba of lagos or fashola would decide for me whom i should vote for in lagos.The yeye oba who majority of people in lagos do not even know he exists

You refer to the Oba of Lagos as a yeye Oba? Don't you have elders in the part of the country where you came from. Politics aside, mind the way you talk about our respected traditional ruler. Especially, the Oba of a state where you live and earn your income. Won't take this insult lightly the next time.

ochejoseph:
Very lame analysis!

For your information Yuguda won under ANPP not CPC, the only CPC Gov till the merger was Almakura of Nassarawa,

As for Benue I think you need to get informed,

One the APC candidate of the APC was until few days ago a member of GEJ cabinet! So where is the change! INEC has even rejected his candidacy so for now APC does not even have a gov candidate!

As for the presidential Election it's almost 97 % GEJ basically because of the pain the fulani inflicted on our people by hired fulani extremist!

Oche, i guess u needed to be at d APC rally in mkd, den u wil knw dt buhari has benue, we voted Ebele bt he failed us

Obasanjo is no factor in Ogun electorally. He never won election there himself even in his own ward without rigging. His candidates including his daughter and godson Gen Olurin did not win either. Osinbajo is an unknown quantity politically. APC is split with the stronger Segun Osoba part that will team up with the PDP if only to shame Obasanjo and prove a point to Tinubu in the presidential election. Ladoja and Alafin factors in Oyo state are inclined to favour Jonathan in Oyo state.

Mosesm:
SLAM DUNK NO ARGUMENT STATES FOR APC

1. Osun - 100% Aregbesola factor) only state Ribadu won in 2011
2. Ogun - Osibanjo homeboy and OBJ factor
3. Katsina - Buhari home turf
4. Jigawa - Buhari home turf
5. Lagos - APC, Tinubu, Fashola, Oba Akiolu factor
6. Kano - Kwankwashiyah, Tofa factor, even Shekarau will vote Buhari.
7. Sokoto - Wammako, Tambuwwal, Sultan factor.
8. Kwara - slam dunk Saraki factor
9. Borno - BH has destroyed PDP image there.
10. Yobe - BH has destroyed PDP image there.
11. Gombe - same as in Borno
12. Oyo - Alaafin factor in Oyo zone, Ibadans factor even Ladoja will.
13. Kebbi - same factor as in Sokoto.
14. Zamfara - same factor as in Sokoto
15. Edo - Oyegun, Oshiobaba too strong for the PDP loafers.
16. Bauchi - Yuguda was in CPC when he won there. 100% Buharian.

PLS NOTE THAT I LEFT OUT RIVERS AND IMO

STATES WHERE APC WILL WIN > 60% CHANCE
17. Niger - IBB and Aliyu know the feeling of the people. Buhari will win flat, guber will be tight
18. Kaduna - El Rufai and Buhari factor. Around 58% for APC though
19. Nasarawa - Al Makura factor, about 57%
20. Adamawa - Atiku factor even Ribadu will vote Buhari for President. Guber will be tight.
21. Ondo - will vote along with the SW for APC; couple with Abdul- Rahamon Mimiko Redeem church loyalty for Osinbajo, his Alhaja Mother etc. Buhari 70%

JONATHAN and PDP WITH BEST chance of winning in:
22. Bayelsa - in the state election, APC will win some seats. BUT a big BUT if Buhari wo on 14 Feb, APC will win the guber election.
23. Abia
24. Enugu
25. Ebonyi
26. Cross Rivers - APC will get 25% for sure though
27. Delta - Itshekiris will dilute PDP dominance though
28. Anambra - Ngige and co will get APC if not Buhari close to 25%.

LEAVING OUT 9 STATES AS BATTLE GROUNDS:

29. Rivers - Amaechi, Ogonis, anti-Wikes factor -will give to APC not Buhari but APC
30. Taraba - Buhari NOT APC factor APC 55%.
31. Imo - sentiments etc but Okorocha will deliver close to 45% if not outright victory. In guber, APC all the way.
32. Plateau - APC factor (maybe not Buhari) will get more than 30%
33. Kogi - Buhari factor and the poor performance of PDP at least 40%
34. Benue - same as in Plateau.
35. Ekiti - despite the grand standing of Fayose, save for his killing squad and rigging threat, ceteris paribus APC will win, 67%.
36. Akwa Ibom - APC factor; not less than 28% for Buhari and likely guber victory.

I M NOT GOD O, JUST A SCIENTIFIC STUDY

OVERALL, Buhari will win close to 69% of the total votes cast. Then the state election will change, and the solid PDP states may become swing states.

Keeping this... to be exhumed post 2015-02-14 – when the people of Nigeria would have spoken.

P34c3
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