A corrupt administration

It is unclear if Jonathan's administration is the most corrupt in Nigeria's democratic history, but never has corruption been this romanticised and institutionalised.

The Code of Conduct Bureau requires all public office holders to declare their assets on assumption and relinquishment of office. But this had no meaning for Jonathan.

Asked during a presidential media chat in June 2012 to explain his aversion to the asset declaration code, Jonathan clarified that he didn't give a damn.

"The issue of public asset declaration is a matter of personal principle," he said. "That is the way I see it, and I don't give a damn about it, even if you criticise me from heaven," he said.

Two years later, he delivered another bombshell. Explaining at another presidential media chat in May 2014 on how his administration was tackling corruption, he said: "Over 70 percent of what are called corruption [cases], even by EFCC [Economic and Financial Crimes Commission] and other anti-corruption agencies, is not corruption, but common stealing."

His disregard for one of his eight struggles - fighting corruption - was put not only into verbal use but also into action.

In 2013, his minister of aviation, Stella Oduah, faced accusations of ordering the purchase of two bulletproof cars for $1.6m - about $1.2m more than the market price. More than a year after the scandal, Oduah, who ordinarily ought to be prosecuted, is still prospering and in fact playing a big role in Jonathan's 2015 campaign.

No one truly knows the exact amount of public funds Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, ex-governor of Jonathan's Bayelsa state, stole. But he had stolen so much that when the federal government started an investigation in the mid-2000s, it was discovered that he had some $1.56m in cash stashed away in one of his London properties.

After investigations and lawsuits in the UK and Nigeria, Jonathan - only God knows what he was thinking - granted Alamieyeseigha a state pardon in March 2013. These are just two out of many such examples.

Litany of failed promises

All of Jonathan's 2010 promises were rehashed into a document he christened "Transformation Agenda 2011-2015", which set out to focus on job creation, education, health, power, transportation, Niger Delta development, governance and public expenditure management, among others.

Truly, Jonathan did attempt to create jobs through the YOUWIN initiative. But it counts for nothing knowing how the masses suffer from the partial removal of subsidy in January 2012, from which YOUWIN is funded.

During the Occupy Nigeria protests against subsidy removal, at least 17 people were killed by the police - people whose rights Jonathan promised to "fight for". Till date, no police officials have been prosecuted for the deaths.

It is impossible to say a president has transformed his country's health sector if his own wife receives medical attention abroad; or if after a prolonged strike by doctors, he ingeniously devises a backdoor approach to sacking them.

I do not blame Jonathan for the insurgency in the northeast, neither do I believe in the conspiracy theory that his government or its key officers are sponsoring Boko Haram. But he can't be exonerated from responsibility for the organisational ill-preparedness of the military and the inferior firearms of soldiers, given the huge amount funds for the military at his disposal.

On Sunday, after weeks of silence, Mr. Jonathan admitted that “this is a trying time for our country,” and he said that Nigerians were justified in their anger against the government and appealed for international help. The reaction of Mr. Jonathan’s wife, Patience, was stunningly callous; according to state news media, she told one of the protest leaders, “You are playing games. Don’t use schoolchildren and women for demonstrations again.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/07/opinion/nigerias-stolen-girls.html?_r=0

A Jonathan win in 2015 will not invalidate the fact that his first-term performance was underwhelming. His victory will be brought by a combination of deep-seated ethnic sentiments in his favour, blind public sycophancy and the possibility of opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) collapsing after its presidential primary.

To Jonathan's advantage, APC has offered the public scant argumentation on why it should be voted into power. Journalist Frederick Nwabufo recently asked John Oyegun, APC's supremo, what his party would do differently about Boko Haram should it gain power next year.

"We will make the system work," he said. How? He didn't say.

So it is clear that in 2015, Nigerians will be torn between the devil and the deep blue sea; between a Jonathan who promised but failed to transform Nigeria and an opposition whose chief selling point is directing tirades at the presidency. Surely, there couldn't have been a worse time to be Nigerian.