Following a review of opinion polls and analysis of the state of elections the results forecast a slim victory for APC's Buhari winning 21 states with 19m votes whilst PDP are set to win in 19 states with 18.5m votes, 48.01% & 46.43% respectively. Its too close to call please contribute to this topic make your prediction and we will review after declaration of the results.

The assessment is objective and subjected to a number of annomolies such as the % of PVC's that are finally released and collected. High populated states such as Kano, Lagos, Rivers and Imo have the lowest % of PVC's collected all are APC dominated states this may be a coincidence or as a result of shear size of the electorate many of such states with low take up of PVC's have rates far below 50% such as Lagos & Ogun with 38.39% & 36.4% respectively, the lowest PVC for PDP is 51.7% in Enugu state as at end of January.

Voter turnout & other factors including the % of votes from the North East Region or whether there is postponment, as postponment has not been factored in. It assumes that elections for Presidency will hold on Valentines Day. The survey notes that voter turnout in 2011 was 52.3% and anticipates that this will increase to 57.80% due to a greater keenest of voters to get engaged, there is also a larger younger electorate and the influence of social media which is making an impact. Votes in most zones are likely to see increases with lower turnout in NE, the impact of the merger of a number of parties into APC makes it a largely two horse race and the impact of States that have crossed over to APC or to PDP as the case of Ekiti is poinyant. There are also states that had bye elections that are not contesting for governorship elections, whose recent victories will have a bearing on the eventual result.

In 2011 Goodluck won 85.27% of the vote in the South this is likely to reduce to 63.33% due to the stronghold of APC in the South West and APC inrodes into South South. The forecast predicts that Goodluck will win in South South with 78.60% down from 96.34% in 2011, due to slim victories for APC in Rivers and Edo. PDP are going to win in South East with a smaller majority down from 98.28% to 84.31% winning all states, with a slim victory in Imo despite APC inrodes. Voter turn out in South West Nigeria was 32.03% in 2011 it is anticipated to increase to 45.04% in 2015. Buhari is set to win this zone with 61.50% of the votes but PDP are predicted to win in Ondo, Ekiti is set to be very close with a slim victory for APC.

In the North 2011 Buhari won 53.69% of the votes and is likely to increase this to 63.86% in 2015 winning all zone except for North Central which is set to be keenly contested. North West will go to APC with 60.28% marginally up from 59.75% Buhari won in 2011. The North East is a largely APC dominated region prediction of its outcome is marred by the likely effects of the insurgency whic is likely to see a fall in the voter turn out from 45.30% in 2011 to 38.51% but despite this Buhari is set to win this region up from 62.21% in 2011 to 72.61% in 2015. PDP victory in North Central is likely due to widespread minorities support in the region. This is a major battle ground in this election, PDP victory is predicted down from 60.65% in 2011 to 54.92% in 2015. PDP is also likely to win FCT with a reduced majority of 53.66%

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dats why dey want d election to be postpone so dat dey d pdp will return back to d drawn board nd fix tinz...but sowie o..dey mst fail

It would not be marginal.

It would be a landslide.