Kenya is at crossroads. In what is looking as a tuff war. the two main partners, the Orange Democratic Party of Raila Odinga and the Party of National Unity of President Kibaki, are now digging in on who is in charge of Governmenet. And this is very sad and unfortunate, coming as it does, barely a year after the ill-fated elections, and in which thousands of Kenyans have yet to be resettled.

To begin with, I did, somewhere last year, argue that Odinga should not accept any discussions oon a Coalistion Government until some matter on who was to do what, were settled. This was ignored. People were too busy, and in a hurry to secure Government positions.

So the Constitution was changed, to create a position of Prime Minister without fine-horning the whole Constitution. The result is that the President, read Kibaki, is still very much in power. Nothing has changed, and it has suddenly dawned lkate in the day to Raila and his sympathisers, that he really doesn't have any authority. Whatever he has is superflous

What Kenya has witnessed in the last few days, is a tug-of-war between Raila on one hand, and the Head of the Civil Service. It has something to do with who has the right to hire and fire members of the public Service, and specifically, who is authorised to restructure the Electoral Commission of Kenya.

The fact is, since the Constitution was never really changed. the President is still the Head of Government. Raila supervises and co-ordinates the Ministries, but this turns him into no more than an errand boy. He is just a supervisor, but cannot make decisions! The Head of the Civil Servive can work independently, citing direct orders of the President. After all his office is a Constitutional office.

I have stated in the past, that the coalition was not the best way for Kenya. I stated that it was a threat to democracy in Africa. I even quoted examples of Prime Ministers before. We had this set-upn the Congo, and ended up with the longest conflict to date. In Uganda, Milton Obote removed the Kabaka who was President, and we ended up witnh Iddi Amin. In Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe removed Canon Banana and we can now see the results.

Is another internal coup being set up in Kenya to remove Kibaki and instal Raila as President?

I hope my fear is misplaced. But too many things have happend and can happen. The situation in Kenya is too volatile. Such an act would cause instant bloodshed. Raila has too many enemies, people who fear him or don't trust him. And people who are too ambitious, even within his own party. It is highly unlikely that he would survive such an act.

Don't forget Raila love for fixing things with violence does not help. Raila's party has the chance to introduce changes to the constitution but adamant to do it. They are also eying the presidential seat with zeal because of the powers vested in it. Next election time which by the way will coincide with Obama second term will make 2008 violence look like child play. This time Kibaki will not be running having completed his mandatory 2nd term.

Mutegi, a Constitution is just a document, which is as good as a person behind it. A constitution is not a cure all. It only provides certain benefits to an individual. A good leader does not need a constitution. He needs good people. As for change, we can see what is happening in Kenya now. You are now aware of who is responsible to the disappearance of maize in Kenya. I am sure you have been getting the news in the last 24 hours. And I am not talking about all the other scandals which are now coming out. And what is Raila doing in India anyway. He likes spending money travelling while we are starving. While at it, tell him to resettle the displaced persons. They did not vote for him, but that does not mean they have no right to live on the land they bought.

and they were busy observing a holiday when Obama was elected? Welcome to africa.

Well, most observers from outside Kenya of whom I am one, realised that  the creation of the position of Prime Minister for Raila was a compromise move brokered by peacemakers. It was rushed into existence, whereas the core issues that separate the two sides of the political divide, had not really been addressed. The peace is on tenterhooks and nobody is sure if this lull in the political turbulence will be so satisfactory for all concerned, as to make the peace permanent.  Or even whether the peace will last long enough to survive the tenure of the current presidential term.

Even if the peace lasts till the next election, unless the main causes of the disaffection between the two main political parties the ODM and the PNU are addressed and the particularly disaffected are assuaged, the volatility of the situation will remain unquenched, with the potential for the eruption of political violence akin to what we saw a year ago, or even worse.

That option has been tried before, but has never succeeded. Just look at Zimbabwe. Mugabe was Prime Minister but he removed Banana. Obote removed the Kabaka. And Raila is a very ambitious man. Meanwhile Kenyans are now starving because he blocked the building of a new storage facility for food, gave one friend a contract to distribute maize bought by the Government but the maize is now being sold to Southern Sudan, and there is another scandal concerning oil! The talk among his party is that it is now their time to eat! God help Kenya