The dictionary uses terms like “revolt”, “rebellion” and “insurrection” to define insurgency. The ultimate goal of course is to undermine or even dislodge the sitting government. Of course there is the resultant tragic loss of innocent lives where terror is employed as instrument.
In principle, there are a few things the political opposition shares with a protracted insurgency. They are both in opposition to the government. In the classic case, the objectives of one may not necessarily agree with the methodology of the other; but sometimes they converge – like (most notably) the IRA and Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland; like ETA and the Basque nationalist party in Spain; like FARC and the PCCC in Columbia.
The Nigerian opposition may not share any kind of organizational affiliation with the insurgents, but it is obvious that their objectives have been mutually sustaining. On the one hand, the activities of the insurgents provide a convenient stream of propaganda material for the opposition to brandish as evidence of state failure. On the other hand, unbridled opposition rhetoric serve to amplify the horror of terrorism and ultimately reinforce the terror effects of the insurgency. So opposition propaganda, itself premised on the outcome of terrorist activities, ultimately creates the scenario that the terrorists wish to see. It is sort of like an ideological buffer for the insurgents.
It is clearly in this context that one can understand the latest opposition reaction to the current reversals being recorded by the Nigerian military against the insurgents. In summary, the APC, through its latest press release, thinks it is wrong timing to defeat the insurgent. By this uniquely opposition reasoning, if the insurgents were not conquered four years ago when this president was sworn in, then it should not be defeated during the president’s term in office.
The opposition in the same press statement complained about the thousands of lives that had been lost to the insurgency, but would rather the killings should carry on for a few more weeks (or months). For them, a few thousand more deaths would not really matter that much, as long as it improves their electoral chances.
In the course of their tirade, the APC did not only ask the questions, they provided their own answers to their own questions. They wondered why Boko Haram was allowed to fester for 6 years (they conveniently forgot that this thing started 13 years ago), and only being subdued now. They quickly supplied the answer in the same paragraph. They claimed the president “deliberately allowed the Boko Haram crisis to fester because he and his team saw it as their trump card for winning reelection in 2015 by currying global and sectarian sympathy… blah blah blah”. It went so aimlessly on and on that a claim that started out without any shred of veracity could not even muster a semblance of logical validity.
The entire delivery was so incoherent that one is no longer sure of the opposition’s definite assessment of the president’s stewardship. All the while they had accused the president of incapacity. In this latest theory, the rap sheet seemed to have been amended from ‘incompetence’ to “political-strategy-gone-awry”. Really strange contraption! Even die-hard opposition supporters would have a hard time assimilating this one. And as if this is not enough complication, another one was thrown into the mix – ‘error of judgment’. So eventually, the APC appear to be unsure of what to accuse the president of: Incompetence? Error of judgment? Deliberate political strategy?
They were so confused, they forgot their own story that they have told almost consistently since they became a political organization. The same military they disparaged and denigrated so relentlessly have now become “gallant Nigerian soldiers” engaged “in the battle to rid Nigeria of insurgency”. Obviously, they sense victory, and perhaps want to be prepared to claim part of it. After all they are even claiming the intellectual property rights for the formation of the multinational action against Boko Haram.
They think the government should have “rallied regional troops” when the APC purportedly demanded that the government should do “to combat the terrorists”. In their typical opposition reasoning, they imagine Nigeria as the regional taskmaster ever able to deploy the military of other countries in the region at short notice to fight the insurgency. Like the opposition party without practical experience in statecraft, they cannot possibly know that sovereign nations are accountable domestically to their own citizens and to global governance institutions like (in this case) the AU and the UN.
Now, for not doing it according to the opposition timetable, they demand that the president “immediately back down from seeking reelection”. Of course this was the ultimate clincher! It was the answer from which the opposition formulated their convoluted thesis and flawed hypotheses. Now the same opposition, which had very recently claimed that the president is afraid of a contest suddenly no longer wants to face the president in a free, fair and contested elections. If the opposition believes that there is any substance to the allegations they just made, why then would they not trust the electorate to determine the fate of the president at the ballot?
In all honestly, it is easy to see the source of the confusion in the camp of the opposition. For a long time, the insurgency has provided ready material for the APC to make claims that are not tenable and election promises they cannot fulfil. Suddenly, the imminent defeat of the insurgents effectively threatens their only source of political blackmail. So where Nigerians see victory and react spontaneously with a sigh of relief, the opposition sees “electoral fortunes” and responds with panic and poorly choreographed media strategy.
It is easy to see where the panic is coming from. A decisive military victory is bad for their strategy because they must sustain the narrative of government incapacity and state failure in order to be able to acquire political power.
Too bad for them that we are about to see the back of the insurgents.

Opposition having HBP since meger