In Nigerian politics, charisma is much less
important than an arsenal of thuggish campaign
tactics. In the months preceding mid-April’s polls ,
political candidates have engineered the kidnapping
of their opponents, would-be candidates have been
assassinated, and thugs have been hired to
intimidate rival campaign supporters. Such
behavior is business-as-usual in a country run by
political “godfathers,” (BBC) or political elites who
sponsor candidates with the understanding that
they will reap the financial benefits once the
candidate takes office. “If anyone tries to attack me,
my boys will unleash terror ,” a nationally
prominent opposition politician told Human Rights
Watch.
As expected, Saturday's gubernatorial elections
were marred by irregularities (Reuters) , leading
election observers to say that the vote should be
rerun in four to six states. In the oil-rich Niger
Delta states, many people were unable to vote and
electoral officials were seen stuffing ballot boxes
(AP). While the vote was largely peaceful, such
widespread vote rigging does not bode well for the
April 21 presidential elections.
If successful, this month’s elections will usher in
the first transition between democratically elected
leaders since Nigeria’s independence in 1960. But
given all the preelection and gubernatorial election
shenanigans, observers remain skeptical. An
editorial in the New York Times urges President
Olusegun Obasanjo to allow serious opposition
candidates on the presidential ballot. Yet the
president appears determined to do just the
opposite: He declared this week that April 12 and 13
would be a public holiday, a move that delays a
Supreme Court hearing to determine whether a key
opposition presidential candidate can run (VOA) .
“The elections were programmed to fail,” said Jibrin
Ibrahim of the Center for Democracy and
Development in Nigeria at a March 9 panel at Johns
Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
“But people will fight to prevent this.”
Leading the fight is Nigeria’s judiciary, which has
shown admirable independence from Obasanjo’s
administration. It ruled this week that the elections
cannot be postponed (Nigerian Tribune), which
some had rumored Obasanjo might attempt. Another
battle in the courts over the right of Vice President
Atiku Abubakar to run for president remains
unresolved. The Independent National Electoral
Commission has tried to disqualify him, and the
issue now hangs in the balance in Nigeria’s
Supreme Court. The electoral commission has been
widely criticized for its mismanagement of the
electoral process, and many fear that its
incompetence and politicization will undermine this
month’s polls. The strength of Nigeria’s institutions
and the flaws of its federalist government structure
are examined in a new Backgrounder .
Outside Nigeria, the presidential election’s results
may reverberate widely. “Nigeria should be the
central African question,” writes Robert I. Rotberg
in a new Council Special Report on Nigeria. “No
country’s fate is so decisive for the continent .” Oil-
rich Nigeria is the continent’s most populous
country, and if successful, its return to democracy
could serve as a model for other African countries.
Already the government has made substantial
inroads in tackling corruption, but a growing
insurgency (Economist ) in the Niger Delta has oil
executives, and the governments they supply,
nervous.
Reducing conflict in the Niger Delta will be
imperative for Nigeria’s new leader. The militant
group MEND, profiled in this Backgrounder , has
reduced national oil output by at least 25 percent by
attacking oil pipelines and kidnapping foreign oil
workers. Thus far, the Nigerian government has
treated MEND as a security threat, not a political
entity to negotiate with, but many experts argue it
will have to change strategies to successfully deal
with the group. This conference looks at trends in
the Niger Delta and how the United States might
support the Nigerian government’s effort to improve
security in the region.