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Eurasia Predicts Victory For Gmb. by Eggcelent(m): 8:53am On Mar 15, 2015 |
EURASIA REVERSES EARLIER PREDICTION, SAYS: buhari ‘ll win 2015 Presidential Election. World largest political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for the 2015 presidential election due in two weeks, predicting victory for the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari. Eurasia Group said a Buhari win would be made possible by the intensity of supports for his candidature, lacklustre grassroots campaigning by the PDP and the anti- rigging measures put in place by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). It said the APC candidate would record a 60% victory against his main rival, President Goodluck Jonathan, who is seeking re-election. In an earlier forecast for the presidential election in August last year, Eurasia Group had predicted a victory for Jonathan, with a 75% per cent margin against Buhari. But in the new estimate yesterday, the political risk advisory said the indicators for the president’s electoral success had switched in favour of the APC flag bearer. “We change our election forecast from a narrow win for incumbent Goodluck Jonathan to a victory for opposition leader Muhamadu Buhari (60% probability),” Eurasia Group stated in the forecast. “The electoral map is tilting towards Buhari in the swing regions of the southwest and middle belt, while high turnout in his core northern base will offset Jonathan’s advantage in the Niger Delta,” it added. It equally predicted that under Buhari, “reliance on technocratic, business- oriented senior officials will lead to constructive policy initiatives.” Other factors that would seal the defeat of Jonathan, it said, were the new permanent voting cards and card readers that would “sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide.” Another factor was the “enthusiasm gap between the candidates and widespread desire for change” in the country, according to the group. “While we expected the electoral map to favor Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily populated South-West around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election. “Jonathan won the South-West and middle belt handily in 2011, but faces an uphill task now. Buhari has reached out to the southwestern Yoruba community and brought them into the upper ranks of his campaign and potential administration, in a political alliance of the country’s two largest ethnic groups (the Hausa and Yoruba). In contrast, Jonathan has struggled to make inroads with either group.” The group said the APC had suffered fewer defections compared to the PDP, despite inducements from the ruling party, adding that its ability to weather the storm showed it was “a relatively united coalition whose members have confidence in the prospects of victory.” Read full story at http:// dailytrust.com.ng/sunday/index.php/ international/19903-buhari-will- win-28-march-presidential-election- with-a-wide-margin-eurasia-group |
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