Having gone through the six week postponement of the 2015 presidential election earlier scheduled for Feb 14, 2015, the appointed date is now only two days away from us!

A lot has happened within the six week window and both parties witnessed some fortunes and misfortunes. The PDP which was heading for a definite defeat had the election held on Feb. 14 seized the opportunity offered by the postponement to improve their standing and readiness for the election. While the party succeeded in some areas, they failed in others notably among which are: (1) kick against the use of card reader, and (2) a sponsored campaign to have Prof. Jega replaced before the rescheduled election.

Within the six week extension also, APC suffered some decamping of some of their executive members in some battleground states such as Rivers’ deputy governor and some commissioners as well as of some members in Adamawa and Taraba. Good fortunes however came their way in SW states when some Osun monarchs and some Yoruba groups openly dissociated themselves from endorsing GEJ for a 2nd term. The party also scored good point with the Chatham House outing and being able to penetrate SW grassroots as evident in Prof. Osinbajo’s campaigning in the core communities of some SW states.

Having considered the afore mentioned factors in addition to some other ones not stated here, I have revised my earlier prediction of the 2015 presidential election result which was first discussed here: https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective

This latest revision considers number of PVCs collected by each state and not just the number of registered voters. Though the PVC figure has been slightly projected upward by a few more thousands and rounded up in all the states considering that there are a couple of days still to go for collection.

I will also attempt to write a short narration of what informed my prediction in some states/regions.

N.B: Though I am a supporter of GMB/PYO presidency, I have however tried as much as possible to keep away my bias in making this prediction in order to arrive at an objective outcome.

Objective and matured inputs, just for discussion purpose is welcome from all intelligent forum members.

omenka, egift, caseless,
NgeneUkwenu cleverly, Obiagelli, Berem, Iligunboy, Donphilopus, Keneking, Mogidi, NgeneUkwenu, Barcarnista, Obiagelli, Demdem, GenBuhari, Kelsoft, Donphilopus, Koboko69, Arresa, Caseless, Gbawe MichaelSokoto, gbawe, Abagworo, OrlandoOwoh Berem, Jomoh, Egift, Arewafederation, Soroptimist, Keneking, Pendy79,Neenar, Desola, MizMyColi, Horus, Whitecat007, keneking, Lakpalakpa, ShehuAba, Rawani,
Tribaleast, Olaaderin, Soroptimist, Mynd44, , Nduchucks, Lacasa, Pendy79, Omerta, Ilugunboy, Naptu2, Aussie, Joseph1013, Olayinka8793, MalcoImX, passingshot, mayoroflagos, shymexx, OrlandoOwoh chukwudi44, wombraiders,mudraker, bishopjuice, ghostfacekiller,
chiefjusticefuk; firefire, datolee, bloodykiller, ichidodo, ratiken, dozzybaba, phockphockman, longeria, aljharem, aryzgreat, publisher, brownlord, iconize, rigarmortis, Descartes, pointb, pazienza, OKDNigeria, stebell, brokenTV, longeria, rozayx5, whitetechnology,
Billyonaire, BackDatAssUp.

South East
GEJ will no doubt sweep the SE zone. However we all know that what happen in 2011 where 95 and 98 percent votes were recorde for GEJ can no longer happen now especiall with the PVC and card reader. Therefore GMB is expected to put up a better show than in 2011 when he could not get 2% here.

"As Ekwueme, a political father in Anambra State, pointed out, all is no longer at ease with PDP. The elder statesman said “Anambra and Igbo vote can no longer be taken for granted. This is even so as Senator Chris Ngige-led state APC has taken the state by storm thereby popularizing the opposition party there. There is no doubt that APC is very popular in Anambra State and so Buhari seems poised to take advantage of it. Buhari’s major setback in this state and most of the other South-East states is PDP’s continuous campaign that the former Head of State hates Ndigbo and singled out Igbo leaders like Ekwueme, Sam Mbakwe and Jim Nwobodo for imprisonment.

South West
APC/GMB is very popular across the SW state and as such are expected to win the zone. GEJ/PDP will put up a very good fight and I predict a win in Ekiti for them there. Of course, the APC is not likely to go down without a good fight in the state given the fact that it is in the majority in the House of Assembly as well as National Assembly members in the state. The fact that it was in charge of the state for four years barely months back, is also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, gubernatorial candidate of the LP at the last election with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles.
But Fayose has shown that he’s willing to do all that in necessary to prevail. This may override all other factors and give the day to Jonathan in the state.

South South
The SS region is naturally the stronghold of GEJ but surely APC has made inroad in states like Delta, Edo, Rivers and even Bayelsa. While I expect GEJ to coast to victory in Bayelsa, he has his work cut out for him in Delta especially with Itsekiris and Urhobos not wholeheartedly supporting him this time unlike in 2011. I expect APC/GMB to secure 25% in Delta, Rivers and Bayelsa. GMB could win Edo which is the state of his party's chairman and Oshiomole but I have nevertheless penned it down for GEJ.


North Central
Good fortunes have smiled on APC since the formation of the party as represented by what happened in Kwara state. In Nassarawa state, the combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged the PDP and APGA in the state. Also, the exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC. Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate.

In Niger state which GMB won despite not having the support of bigwig like IBB and the governor then, governor Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. PDP’s fortunes have further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP.

North East and North West

Nothing much to write about here as these two regions are the natural stronghold of GMB. The only states he failed to win in the NE in 2011 are Adamawa and Taraba where he scored 38% and 35% respectively. Thus, I have given him a slight edge in Adamawa (55%) based on the fact that not only that Atiku has since defected to APC but he has also flatly rejected GEJ's overtures. Aisha Buhari is also from Adamawa.

I assumed GEJ will win Taraba by 65% (he won it in 2011 by 61%). besides, TY Danjuma is from here and the religious card is active here also.

Okay... Les go dere

Reserved

Okay

I believe GMB would be the declared.

Reserved

@PassingShot, brilliant analysis and I agree with you except your over generosity to PDP in SW. I'm on ground too in SW. I feel GMB is going to put up better show in the SW states. I even tagged SW as the burial ground of PDP/GEJ in this election. Is like a movie titled "SW against GEJ". People are expressively and palpably angry with GEJ and are ready to reject him massively at poll. I spoke with the people who agreed to vote for the first time in their lives just to ensure GEJ would not come back.

I don't think gej ll get morethan 30 % in niger state and edo ll be close 55 -45

Simply on Reserve

PassingShot:
Reserved

Jonathan will defeat buhari in the SW. You can refer to this post after Saturday.

Nuff said.

GMB_18 000 000 - GEJ_50 000 000 . SUM ToTaL

EUROFIGHTERR:


Jonathan will defeat buhari in the SW. You can refer to this post after Saturday.

Nuff said.

Are you from SW? I am from there and I know what's on ground mister.

PassingShot:


Are you from SW? I am from there and I know what's on ground mister.

Please attach the data/spreadsheet

REASONS Y I CHANGE MY DECISION ON BUHARI.

1.THE PROBLEM OF NIGERIA START WITH NORTHERNERS...ALL THOSE USELESS HEAD OF STATE

2.NORTH GREEDINESS TO ALWAYS RULE.LOOKING AT ALL NIGERIA LEADERS,MAJORITY OF THEM ARE NORTHERNERS

3.THE THIEVES SURROUNDING GMB... PEOPLE LIKE ABS,TINUBU WHICH ARE CONFIRMED POLITICAL THIEVES ARE HIS LOYALISTS

4. WE NEED AGILE LEADER NOT AGE DISADVANTAGE LEADER ...

#Y ALWAYS D NORTH

EUROFIGHTERR:


Jonathan will defeat buhari in the SW. You can refer to this post after Saturday.

Nuff said.

Yes, South West Aba you mean. E be like say you don shakup dis early morning

EUROFIGHTERR:


Jonathan will defeat buhari in the SW. You can refer to this post after Saturday.

Nuff said.

Even in ekiti , Buhari will win acidiously

ABIOLAXYZ:
REASONS Y I CHANGE MY DECISION ON BUHARI.

1.THE PROBLEM OF NIGERIA START WITH NORTHERNERS...ALL THOSE USELESS HEAD OF STATE

2.NORTH GREEDINESS TO ALWAYS RULE.LOOKING AT ALL NIGERIA LEADERS,MAJORITY OF THEM ARE NORTHERNERS

3.THE THIEVES SURROUNDING GMB... PEOPLE LIKE ABS,TINUBU WHICH ARE CONFIRMED POLITICAL THIEVES ARE HIS LOYALISTS

4. WE NEED AGILE LEADER NOT AGE DISADVANTAGE LEADER ...

#Y ALWAYS D NORTH

I don't need reasons why you support GEJ or why you withdrew your support from GMB. No one needs it actually here.

Please discuss the topic or leave the thread.

Stop wasting your time.

The day of reckoning is less than two days away.

We shall see who are the better analysts.

Buhari would not win this election. You can always quote me.

GEJ TILL 2019!

jaybee3:

Please attach the data/spreadsheet

Done

All we need to know is GMB declared winner of 2015 presidential election.

PassingShot:


Are you from SW? I am from there and I know what's on ground mister.

Calm down, Saturday is around the corner. I hope you're planing a big party for buhari's retirement from Nigeria's political space.

maestroferddi:
Stop wasting your time.

The day of reckoning is less than two days away.

We shall see who are the better analysts.

Buhari would not win this election. You can always quote me.

Leave them alone my brother, the scales will fall from their eyes on Saturday.

PassingShot:


Are you from SW? I am from there and I know what's on ground mister.

.....am in southwest too...Osun state specifically....don't b surprised if Jonathan wins here

ademega:

Even in ekiti , Buhari will win acidiously

Saturday is around the corner bro. Calm down and wait.

Hardaysheenar:
.....am in southwest too...Osun state specifically....don't b surprised if Jonathan wins here

Jonathan wins in Osun? Kill that idea mister.

I see buhari winning this election.

Hardaysheenar:
.....am in southwest too...Osun state specifically....don't b surprised if Jonathan wins here

GMB will flop GEJ gallantly in Osun. Forget Aregbesola, this election is about GMB vs GEJ and that is how majority of people take it.

EUROFIGHTERR:


Leave them alone my brother, the scales will fall from their eyes on Saturday.

How come FFK isn't as confident as you are? Going as far accusing Jega of being compromised. Even Jonathan himself is not as confident as you are. Your bravado is impressive but you better not deceive yourself, that way you'll be able to better manage the agony of defeat that is about to envelope you and your ilk.