1) Gej's first term performance was woeful.

In 2011, Buhari was deemed unelectable. He was largely seen as an Islamic extremist and an ex dictator who has no business with any democratic set up. For this 'ex dictator' to stand a chance in 2015, for Nigerians to clamour for him, it only goes to show how fed up they are with Jonathan. Whether proven or not, no administration in nigeria's history has had more scandals than this. It was just inevitable.



2) Nigerians are becoming more aware and reasonable

Nigerians were not swayed by the last minute show from the incumbent President. They made their judgement from his overall performance. And to a reasonable extent (save for the rigging in ss/se) the elections weren't about tribe or party loyalty. It was a collectve resolve to unseat an underperforming President.



3) APC was a hasty political set up, but they made better calculations

How do you unseat an incumbent President in Nigeria? By fielding a candidate that enjoys cult followership in his region, and backing him up with a pastor from the south west, Lagos. The choice was excellent. They knew they didn't stand a chance in the south east and south south, but the figures from the north and west was enough to unseat the President. And that's where they concentrated their forces. Once the southwest was won, it was game over. It could have been Amaechi for vp or Tambuwal for President. But he wouldn't have pulled enough votes from the north like Buhari did.

4) Jonathan's calculations where wrong

Perhaps he should have known that the south south and southeast would not give him the numbers to match what Buhari ll pull from the North. He should have fought harder to divide the southwest too. Keeping his former allies would have been a good idea.


5) Jonathan's political blunders came back to hunt him

If he had stuck with Obansanjo, continuously courted Tinubu, and kept Amaechi and the rebel governors on his side, APC would have been a weak set up. Jona would have pulled the southwest votes like he did in 2011. Instead he chose to stick with the likes of Fani kayode and kashamu. These guys arent godfathers, kashamu is after his own interest, kayode is a politically worthless.


6) The southeast will remain a political minority in Nigeria, unless they open up

Yes! The attitude of despising the southwest and North will not yield any result for them. The southwest is politically strong because of it's alliance with the north. APC is a southwest/Northern alliance, one that has produced a President. If the southeast wants a taste of aso rock, it must form an alliance. APGA is an igbo party. But a stronger alliance with the south south and a gradual incursion into the southwest would be a good way to prepare for 2019. On their own, they just cannot win a national election.


7) Social media is a microcosm of the reality on ground

Elections are not won on social media, but it gives an almost accurate depiction of what to expect. 2015 has thought us that. If you are a politician, and you wish to know people's perception of your government, just visit nairaland.



Public opinion in nigeria is a powerful tool.

APC played this card perfectly. From day one, they have shaped public opinion. The attack and revile the sitting government, magnify Jonathan's errors and minimise his achievements. They incited public hate and disdain against Jonathan, to the end that he just couldn't do anything right. And it worked. People became fed up with Jonathan.



9) it wasn't about love for Buhari, it was more of hatred for Gej and pdp.

Nigerians are not exactly in love with Buhari, they were just fed up with Jonathan. At this rate, even Hitler would have had a chance against Gej. He failed to make decisions when he should, and made very bad decisions when he did. Sticking with Allison madueke, Abba Moro, sacking sanusi, etc. His wife was also busy picking fights everywhere. Basically, Gej's actions were cynical, displaying total disrespect to Nigerians. He underestimated the voters.



10)PDP must reorganise itself if it wants to get power back

............ Dicefrost



Cc lalasticlala

Incase

So true..

In life,you don't change the winning team.

GEJ took the media for a fool,it backfired on him..

His wife was just too lawless,and he could not control her,it backfired..

He surrounded himself with pretenders,who have selfish interest..it backfired..

Incase

Nice calculation and write-up u got there bro. U are a great analyst. Jonathan made a lot of mistakes and was duly punished. Meanwhile SAI BUHARI

op said it all.

Words of wisdom

10 Conclusions From 2015 Elections by dicefrost(m): 6:11pm On Mar 31
1) Gej's first term performance was woeful.

In 2011, Buhari was deemed unelectable. He was largely seen as an Islamic extremist and an ex dictator who has no business with any democratic set up. For this 'ex dictator' to stand a chance in 2015, for Nigerians to clamour for him, it only goes to show how fed up they are with Jonathan. Whether proven or not, no administration in nigeria's history has had more scandals than this. It was just inevitable.



2) Nigerians are becoming more aware and reasonable

Nigerians were not swayed by the last minute show from the incumbent President. They made their judgement from his overall performance. And to a reasonable extent (save for the rigging in ss/se) the elections weren't about tribe or party loyalty. It was a collectve resolve to unseat an underperforming President.



3) APC was a hasty political set up, but they made better calculations

How do you unseat an incumbent President in Nigeria? By fielding a candidate that enjoys cult followership in his region, and backing him up with a pastor from the south west, Lagos. The choice was excellent. They knew they didn't stand a chance in the south east and south south, but the figures from the north and west was enough to unseat the President. And that's where they concentrated their forces. Once the southwest was won, it was game over. It could have been Amaechi for vp or Tambuwal for President. But he wouldn't have pulled enough votes from the north like Buhari did.

4) Jonathan's calculations where wrong

Perhaps he should have known that the south south and southeast would not give him the numbers to match what Buhari ll pull from the North. He should have fought harder to divide the southwest too. Keeping his former allies would have been a good idea.


5) Jonathan's political blunders came back to hunt him

If he had stuck with Obansanjo, continuously courted Tinubu, and kept Amaechi and the rebel governors on his side, APC would have been a weak set up. Jona would have pulled the southwest votes like he did in 2011. Instead he chose to stick with the likes of Fani kayode and kashamu. These guys arent godfathers, kashamu is after his own interest, kayode is a politically worthless.


6) The southeast will remain a political minority in Nigeria, unless they open up

Yes! The attitude of despising the southwest and North will not yield any result for them. The southwest is politically strong because of it's alliance with the north. APC is a southwest/Northern alliance, one that has produced a President. If the southeast wants a taste of aso rock, it must form an alliance. APGA is an igbo party. But a stronger alliance with the south south and a gradual incursion into the southwest would be a good way to prepare for 2019. On their own, they just cannot win a national election.


7) Social media is a microcosm of the reality on ground

Elections are not won on social media, but it gives an almost accurate depiction of what to expect. 2015 has thought us that. If you are a politician, and you wish to know people's perception of your government, just visit nairaland.



cool Public opinion in nigeria is a powerful tool.

APC played this card perfectly. From day one, they have shaped public opinion. The attack and revile the sitting government, magnify Jonathan's errors and minimise his achievements. They incited public hate and disdain against Jonathan, to the end that he just couldn't do anything right. And it worked. People became fed up with Jonathan.



9) it wasn't about love for Buhari, it was more of hatred for Gej and pdp.

Nigerians are not exactly in love with Buhari, they were just fed up with Jonathan. At this rate, even Hitler would have had a chance against Gej. He failed to make decisions when he should, and made very bad decisions when he did. Sticking with Allison madueke, Abba Moro, sacking sanusi, etc. His wife was also busy picking fights everywhere. Basically, Gej's actions were cynical, displaying total disrespect to Nigerians. He underestimated the voters.



10)PDP must reorganise itself if it wants to get power back

............ Dicefrost

I doff my hat for you, your analyses are very very correct.