onatisi:
Despite the fact that I know buhari and apc will and cannot deliver anything tangible or meaningful ,I think it is uncalled for and not wise to criticize a govt that hasn't even been sworn in. We are not even sure the govt will come into effect. It is like condemning a building or car which is still at its designing stage.

Surely you must be aware that many projects are cancelled or restructured during the design stage. There is nothing wrong with discussing the viability of the proposals Buhari has made, even before he assumes office.

The first mistake Buhari made, was contesting the 2015 Presidential Election. The reason is simple; Year 2015 is NOT 1984. In 2015, there is Freedom Of Information Bill; All our national income and expense are under Public Telescope. You will see money, but can not eat the money, cos I am watching you, Barcanista is watching you and even Gbawe the red-eyed old man is watching you.

Can the Buhariots come over to this thread and educate us on how they intend to FEED our SCHOOL KIDS ? Buhari MUST fulfil his campaign pledges including stabilizing the price of crude oil.

I am coming......I need to pee.

mikolo80:
bros abeg enlighten me

On what exactly?

PassingShot:
[s][/s]

This your obsession with GMB has no equal!

Your life must be very pathetic I swear. Why don't you wait for the administration to be sworn in and start work before you start the rubbish you've chosen to embark on?

Your die-hard supporters must by now be ashamed of you already!

Lalasticlala, Seun, Ishilove, please stop giving this guy unnecessary attention by moving silly threads as this to the front page.

Stop feeding his over bloated ego please!

Modified*
Just as I expected, here is one of the few reasonable PDP supporters:

E pain am!!!

Billyonaire:
The first mistake Buhari made, was contesting the 2015 Presidential Election. The reason is simple; Year 2015 is NOT 1984. In 2015, there is Freedom Of Information Bill; All our national income and expense are under Public Telescope. You will see money, but can not eat the money, cos I am watching you, Barcanista is watching you and even Gbawe the red-eyed old man is watching you.

Can the Buhariots come over to this thread and educate us on how they intend to FEED our SCHOOL KIDS ? Buhari MUST fulfil his campaign pledges including stabilizing the price of crude oil.

I am coming......I need to pee.

Nigerians too are watching... The mistake with many opposition (especially in Africa) is that they sit in the comfort of their bedroom to make projections and promises without proper research. Imagine Obiagelli creating a thread to "assume" how much goes into the FG accounts and was even joyous at such show of sheer ignorance.

obailala:

If you consider pro-Buhari people/anti-Jonathan people as ignorant, I wonder what you would classify pro-Jonathan activists as. Remember that whichever way the argument goes, it still remains a GEJ vs GMB matter. In your humble and honest opinion, do you really think GEJ's manner of leadership was taking Nigeria in the positive direction (especially considering the monumental treasury looting and crass impunity which prevailed)?

I suggest you leave GEJ out of this for now..this bogus social welfare' package was promised by Buhari and his APC..Don't see anything wrong in doing an analysis of this..To me,those were just bogus promise made just to win an election,if u think otherwise,make use of ur brain and tell us how it can work.

onatisi:
Despite the fact that I know buhari and apc will and cannot deliver anything tangible or meaningful ,I think it is uncalled for and not wise to criticize a govt that hasn't even been sworn in. We are not even sure the govt will come into effect. It is like condemning a building or car which is still at its designing stage.

Finally! Someone thinking in the right direction. Sometimes, I wonder about this PDP analysts. Almost as if they want the newly elected government to fail just so they can say 'I told you so'!

For crying out loud, this is our nation, nothing should be bigger or more important than for our office holders to get it right. As terrible as it may sound, the success of this government is in EVERYONE's interest.

Someone made a comment that Nigerians are like the children of Israel, they always complain and are never grateful, I am beginning to think that person is right.

anonimi:


Beautiful, great post.
However this can only happen IF we continue to examine, analyse and criticise the electoral promises and performance of ALL governments

- federal
- 36 states
- 774 LGAs

and the three arms of executive, legislative and judiciary.

BTW, thanks Barcanista for your great posts and reliable analysis

We thank you Lord for his mercies. Buhari and APC should realise that their promises are well documented. I think this is necessary for the growth of our democracy

Barcanista don't waste ur tym arguing with these pple they won't budge let's chill till wen he takes over
Fayemi has said na October their admin go start fully

So just let dem enjoy dia honeymoon they deserve it u are spoiling it with daunting facts

Let him takes over first

barcanista:
On what exactly?

on the lack of comprehension that you accused me of

barcanista:
Nigerians too are watching... The mistake with many opposition (especially in Africa) is that they sit in the comfort of their bedroom to make projections and promises without proper research. Imagine Obiagelli creating a thread to "assume" how much goes into the FG accounts and was even joyous at such show of sheer ignorance.

Lord have mercy!

@Barcanista, I like ur point and nice analysis. However, I think this is very possible if all the loopholes in the nation economy are taken care of

1. Nigeria currently losses about 500k barrels of Oil daily to theft/Bunkering, this translates to $9B per annum(Assuming 300 production days and $60 per barrel. if 60% of this is recovered. we have additional N1.08t($I/N200)

There are so many other avenues that the govt can look at to increase the nation's earning

It is therefore achievable but would require a lot of efforts and determination

barcanista:
PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ

This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year. Let us start by putting things in order...

Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.

Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"

Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".

What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn

June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn

Total: N8.785trn

Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn

*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn

Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]

Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.

How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn

2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn

What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.

Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)

This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).

Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.

Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.

*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.

Total: N300b + N150b = N450b

Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.

Subtotal: N823 billion.

Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?

- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.

- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.

- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion

What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable?

story for the dogs part 2

barcanista my wish is that may you still dey alive

na for yoyr 2 korokoro eyes all dis go dy possible


sai baba

sai buhari

Can this nigur get over Gej's loss for Gods sake? Wonder why people grant audience to this sort of crap. Meanwhile if u don't want me bubu as your president I got a flat in Ghana for u to rent. Real cheap. Meanwhile deal with it and get on with your life. The otuoke man sef no cry reach you. Onye iberibe...

*sips orijin*

barcanista:
Lol, Buhari administration should not expect scrutiny of his proposed programs. Last night some of his supporters took the entire Nigerians for fools with their gigantic and ignorant calculation including a Supermod here. I suppose Buhari and his crew are yet to understand how things work or they deliberately scammed us.

there was no scam because you didn't vote for GMB. You ar the one scamming itself because u believe the manufactured figures gej n his goonz have been giving u.

bogzyboy:
[s][/s]


Can you show me a link where Buhari proposed N1.89tr for his social program? Or are you just making that up?

Try making sense once at least!

barcanista:
Where are the pro-Buhari people? I love things like this... #BabaOneChance

Stop hurting. Gej still has up to 6weeks left why not ask him about the huge list of promises he made whether He has fullfilled it or not. # Bacarnistastophurting

barcanista:
PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ

This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year. Let us start by putting things in order...

Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.

Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"

Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".

What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn

June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn

Total: N8.785trn

Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn

*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn

Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]

Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.

How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn

2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn

What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.

Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)

This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).

Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.

Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.

*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.

Total: N300b + N150b = N450b

Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.

Subtotal: N823 billion.

Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?

- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.

- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.

- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion

What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable?

it seems u re d only survive GEJ's supporter here, dnt worry, by may 29th u will be totally irrelevant just like ur thread, imagine ow u will be sad nd bitter for good 4 years of ur life while GMB rule u, Get a life.

wholexy009:
@Barcanista, I like ur point and nice analysis. However, I think this is very possible if all the loopholes in the nation economy are taken care of

1. Nigeria currently losses about 500k barrels of Oil daily to theft/Bunkering, this translates to $9B per annum(Assuming 300 production days and $60 per barrel. if 60% of this is recovered. we have additional N1.08t($I/N200)

There are so many other avenues that the govt can look at to increase the nation's earning

It is therefore achievable but would require a lot of efforts and determination

Oga this is Obiagelli's economics. It doesn't work that way Sir.

agabusta:
Sit your ass down and let the administration come on board before you start your opposition work. You still have 4 years ahead to tackle the administration, you better don't dissipate your energy too early.

You just seem to me like those people that will be running full speed at the start of a 10,000metres marathon only to drop off mid-way.

The administration is yet to come on board, you are already being pessimistic.

will be back...

U simply have nothing to say.

barcanista:
Oga, how do you expect civil service to improve in its productivity without adequate funding for research? Btw the N45b is even meagre for any serious research by a country's department. Rather than encourage research, you are discouraging it. Na wa o

We have a certain Public Servive Institute who has a budget for research. You see what I'm talking about? And by the way, MDAs have budgets for Training of their Staff for "improved productivity". They have no business researching and indeed, they are not.
That's just one of the many ways we've been spending money doing nothing.

san316:
there was no scam because you didn't vote for GMB. You ar the one scamming itself because u believe the manufactured figures gej n his goonz have been giving u.

Bro, Just as Jonathan is the President of ALL Nigerians irrespective of who voted for him in 2011, Buhari will be the President of ALL Nigerians (Home and Abroad) whether a section of us voted for him or not. Just as GEJ was held accountable, Buhari will be held accountable...

PassingShot:
[s][/s]

This your obsession with GMB has no equal!

Your life must be very pathetic I swear. Why don't you wait for the administration to be sworn in and start work before you start the rubbish you've chosen to embark on?

Your die-hard supporters must by now be ashamed of you already!

Lalasticlala, Seun, Ishilove, please stop giving this guy unnecessary attention by moving silly threads as this to the front page.

Stop feeding his over bloated ego please!

Modified*
Just as I expected, here is one of the few reasonable PDP supporters:

U still does not get the point. this argument has nothing to do with wen buhari will assume leadership, it has everything to do with the promises.

Where have i been? Romance section?

Once again, it's being laid bare that this social programme of GMB isn't only laughable; it's also an insult to the rudiments of mathematics and economics.

It a bid to throw the outgoing government in the bad light, the APC boxed itself in a corner. It's not workable.

When GMB takes over power, this social welfare programme will be the LEAST and LAST thing on his mind. Governance no be moi moi.

naijababe:


Finally! Someone thinking in the right direction. Sometimes, I wonder about this PDP analysts. Almost as if they want the newly elected government to fail just so they can say 'I told you so'!

For crying out loud, this is our nation, nothing should be bigger or more important than for our office holders to get it right. As terrible as it may sound, the success of this government is in EVERYONE's interest.

Someone made a comment that Nigerians are like the children of Israel, they always complain and are never grateful, I am beginning to think that person is right.

Really
Wen they promise to render country ungovernable for gej ND dey did dey didn't knw NIGERIA is our country

Just DAT vegance is of d Lord they can also try to test buahri resolve by giving him crisis to quench
Don't preach 1 Nigeria cuz it only exisit in our illusion

barcanista:
Lol very funny.... As in IGR for 2010 from MDAs was N30.17trn? I don't know where our "common sense" is. From where did these Agencies get the "N30tr"? bros, do you know what 30trn is? You believe that MDAs will generate N30trn and only submit N54b that is about 2% of the earnings to the FG?

. . . . . . . .well it may interest you to know that on the back of these findings (by the house of representatives), FRC went ahead and recovered N120bn FROM MDAs, and is presently ironing out issues with the MDAs

barcanista:


As for the waiver, I laugh again because that amount is overrated. HIGHLY overrated just like the missing $49b claim by Sanusi. Waiver is a common policy by virtually all government. If you don't know the benefit of waiver for some Items let me throw some light...

Government approve waiver on some imported items because they know that going ahead with the waiver will mean the end consumer bearing the cost.

Lets say you use to import fish at N500, at 10% tax and sell at N600. Your total profit will be N600-(N500+N5+incured cost). Due to some factors(High Dollars rate or increased cost of commodity from importing country), you buy import the Fish at N550. With a 10% tax, you are to pay N55 to custom. The Government may decide to wave off N5 from the N55 to keep it at N50 so as not to place the burden on final consumers. Waiver is a part of fiscal policy of Government...

[b] . . . . . . . . . .I told you not to dabble into fields you know nothing about . . . . . . . .firstly the waiver amount was released by no other agency but customs itself, secondly if cost and freight for fish is N500, then at 10% duty (not tax) you will pay import duty of N50.60, surcharge of N3.54, 5% VAT which is N28.33, CISS of N4.00 and ETLS of N2.53 totalling N89.01 . . . . . . . thirdly, waivers are given on figures, for example the FG can give a waiver of 200 naira to a company for all items under HS code 0301. . . . .if the company imports lets say fish and it falls under HS code 0301 the total payable duty will be N89.01 (as per your/our illustration), N50.60 will be deducted from the waiver amount of N200 leaving a balance of N149.40 . . . . . . . .this will continue until the company exhaust its N200 waiver . . . . . . . .waivers given to companies have to be forwarded to the various custom commands before final documents are sent to the banks/or before PAARs are presented to customs for assessment generation, so therefore customs is in a prime position to tell you the actual waiver amounts. Ideally, waivers should be given to start up fields that have little or no existence like starting up an LNG plant and not to companies like coscharis, dangote and co!! . . . . . . . . .again, stop dabbling into fields you know nothing about[/b]

chuna1985:









U still does not get the point. this argument has nothing to do with wen buhari will assume leadership, it has everything to do with the promises.

He knows. He only fruitlessly tried to attack barcanista, thereby deflect attention from the brutal fact staring him in the face.

otr1:

We have a certain Public Servive Institute who has a budget for research. You see what I'm talking about? And by the way, MDAs have budgets for Training of their Staff for "improved productivity". They have no business researching and indeed, they are not.
That's just one of the many ways we've been spending money doing nothing.

Bros, research and training are two different things. While training equips the individual staffs, research does more than that in policy formulation, implementation, improvement in output and much more. Every organisation whether public or private sector that throw away research is bound for failure.