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IF YOU NEED TUTORIAL ON POLITICAL CALCULUS, PLEASE MEET TINUBU.

Many people have made series of comments on TINUBUISM political theorem but I will be using this piece to give snapshot of his differential equations so far in Nigeria political landscape.

This piece is not to support nepotism or pitch tent with Tinubu as I am never his follower nor his sympathizer but it is to serve as lesson for players in our political chess board.

My caption will cover his odyssey from 1999 till date. Obviously, today, TINUBU has etched his name in sand of time, though we can’t like him for everything but we can pick one or two points from his political template.

The JAGABAN as he fondly called by his supporters was only Governor that retained his seat under AD party after 2003 April polls. There were many cacophony that presumed his victory. Was it the war staged against him by OBJ or Afenifere Group? While OBJ tried using Bucknor Akerele Kofoworola, the then TINUBU's deputy to wrestle Alausa seat from the latter in 2002, Afenifere was battling him on supremacy and Toronto certificate saga was booming. It was this course that cost Bucknor her seat let alone being JAGABAN's running mate in 2003. TINUBU's victory was also hinged on his refusal to join parley made at Ijebu Igbo between Afenifere, OBJ and other AD governors.

Immediately after 2003 polls it was done on OBJ to bring TINUBU under umbrella of PDP but this was  futile for OBJ and this degraded to a point that OBJ refused to give fiscal honour to TINUBU's 37 LCDA. It was on this note that JAGABAN had more sympathisers in the public.

Moreover, in order to register his political hegemony in South West being the financier in the zone, he broke away from AD controlled by Afenifere to form Action Congress ......................equation (I)

When 2007 looked like his political exit from Alausa, he quickly put up armour of Knight in SW zone political chess board. While many would have expected Jide Idris or Femi Pedro to succeed him, he brought in Fashola, a man whose identity was unknown to Lagos political farm. He extended this to other states in the zone and Edo State.

His choice of candidate always based on public perceived credibility and integrity.................this is equation (II).

Initially, this equation could not work in Lagos due to OBJ vested interest in the state. Many might want to know reason for OBJ obsession, this was not far from IGR. Lagos annual IGR is second to Federal government, times 4 of state next to Lagos on the list, times 3 of annual budget of many states and even more than some African countries annual budget. This made OBJ quest to add Lagos to his purview. Since perceived candidate of PDP was Funsho Williams, the man who gathered over 600 thousands votes in 2003 to come second, it was a readymade lost battle for ASIWAJU. Surprisingly, Funsho departure to another world beyond earth planet cleared way for PROJECT FASHOLA 2007. 

Equation (III) .............. the enemy of your enemy is your friend......
 

To be continued next week...... 

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I spit on dis thread!!!!!