For President Buhari, forming the cabinet is the easy part
for obvious reasons. Getting the economy up and running
again won’t be a child’s play. According to Teriba, the
problems he inherited from the past administration is
quite intimidating. Among the tests he’ll face is the matter
of the 2016 budget, whose presentation to parliament is
already running late. Crude oil theft and the fuel subsidy
trouble, with the fraud associated with it, will be crying
out for attention, not to mention the destructive
insurgency in the North-East. Government will need to
find alternative sources of income to make up for
dwindling oil revenues.
Civil society organisations in Nigeria had an unusual
meeting in Abuja on October 29. They didn’t gather to
demand social justice or political reforms. The agitation was
over the deplorable state of the economy. Led by Clem
Nwankwo of the Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre, the group
decried the “steady and continuous decline of the Nigerian
economy” since President Muhamadu Buhari reported for
duty on May 29. Should we be concerned?
Truth be told, the economic indicators are not looking too
good. The Nigerian Stock Exchange’s All-Share Index is down
15 percent since the inauguration of the new administration
on May 29. In other words, investors have lost about one
trillion naira or $5 billion as share prices continue to fall.
The naira has also been officially devalued by more than 20
percent against the US dollar in the past year. The National
Bureau of Statistics put the gross domestic product in the
second quarter of this year at 2.4 percent, down 1.6 percent
from 4.2 percent in the same period a year ago. To put this
in perspective, GDP averaged about 7 percent annually for
almost a decade before the downturn set in this year. The
country’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped 30
percent since last year to $30 billion, according to data
obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. It may well be
harsh to blame President Buhari for the state of the
economy. He took over at a time of falling prices of crude oil
– the country’s top revenue earner and main export product.
But it’s his response or body language, in current parlance,
to the economy that irks many observers. Beyond his
commendable stance against corruption, the CSOs believe
the President has not done much to reassure Nigerians and
foreign investors that he has a game plan for reviving the
economy. The fact that the ministers who will help steer the
ship are yet to be assigned portfolios strengthens this
argument. As Nwankwo, their spokesman, put it, “the major
challenge we are currently facing is that we cannot see the
urgency of this administration to improve the (depressing
economic) situation.” Nor does it appear that it has a good
grasp of the issues, he added. For instance, the decision of
the central bank, backed by the government, to control the
foreign exchange market rather than devalue the currency in
the face of the persistent pressure on the local currency, has
elicited criticism from both local and foreign analysts.
As we wait for the ministers to take office, all eyes will be
on the persons who will be in charge of key ministries
such as finance, trade, mines, transport, aviation, works,
agriculture and industries. The occupiers of these
positions matter a lot to economic observers. Journalists
and analysts will show more than a keen interest in
certain ministries because if the financial markets like
them, sentiments toward the government may turn
positive.
To be fair, the whole world is experiencing economic slump.
Some nations are even in a worse state than Nigeria. It’s so
that Nigeria does not become one of such basket cases that
the Buhari administration needs to act fast. “This regime
should do quick, wake up and address the problems”, Ayo
Teriba, chief executive officer of Economics Associates, an
economic think tank, pleaded. To make up for lost time, Mr.
President will do well to inaugurate his cabinet this week
without further delay. Thank God the Senate has cleared the
ministerial nominees. So after five months of waiting, the
wheel of government machinery should therefore begin to
turn again. This will ease everybody’s concerns. Foreign
investors can then decide to either invest in the country or
go elsewhere. Local businesses can expect to be paid money
owed them and bid for new contracts while millions of
unemployed youths can expect to get hired as economic
activities resume.
As we wait for the ministers to take office, all eyes will be on
the persons who will be in charge of key ministries such as
finance, trade, mines, transport, aviation, works, agriculture
and industries. The occupiers of these positions matter a lot
to economic observers. Journalists and analysts will show
more than a keen interest in certain ministries because if
the financial markets like them, sentiments toward the
government may turn positive. As a result, the floodgate of
foreign direct investments could be opened. But if they are
disliked, foreign investors may likely prevaricate. This was
why four South African presidents from the late Nelson
Mandela to Jacob Zuma retained Trevor Manuel as Finance
Minister for 13 years between 1996 and 2009. It was also
why former President Olusegun Obasanjo hired Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala to head the finance ministry and why
Goodluck Jonathan anointed her as Coordinator of his
Economic Team, a powerful position that was until then
unknown in Nigeria. Businesses and financial markets
usually seek any information on these pivotal ministers to
help understand them and so be able to predict their policy
bearing. The reason is because markets dislike surprises.
They prefer people they know and can trust. If they are
former colleagues on Wall Street or the City of London, or
Ivy League classmates, or pro-business eggheads whose
temperament they can forecast, fine.
For President Buhari, forming the cabinet is the easy part for
obvious reasons. Getting the economy up and running again
won’t be a child’s play. According to Teriba, the problems he
inherited from the past administration is quite intimidating.
Among the tests he’ll face is the matter of the 2016 budget,
whose presentation to parliament is already running late.
Crude oil theft and the fuel subsidy trouble, with the fraud
associated with it, will be crying out for attention, not to
mention the destructive insurgency in the North-East.
Government will need to find alternative sources of income
to make up for dwindling oil revenues. Otherwise, it will be
impossible to fulfill campaign promises. And away from the
usual lip service paid to diversifying the economy, it’s this
administration that will have to actually do it.
Unemployment must be confronted, inflation must be
tamed, and exchange rate stabilised. Then with corruption,
despite President Buhari’s body language, we don’t need a
prophet to know that corruption won’t be an easy nut to
crack.
Paul Okolo is an Abuja-based public affairs
commentator


http://blogs.premiumtimesng.com/?p=169459

No because he's not an economy expert and which is why I didn't vote him which I'm not likely to regret with the way things are Going

ha no fit shout