biina:

please tell that to naijaking1, who seems convinced that he has seen the future that others are oblivious to.

Are you not being disengenious? I listed 4 factors that could undermine the value of the naira, and you've obviously chosen to stick to the one dearest to your heart. Please go back and re-read my post.

He might be bench marked against a predecessor that is leaving behind a track record that may be difficult to match

Wish him all the best, hope he doesnt dissapoint

What set the beginning of Mr. Lamido’s name coming into touch with as well as popularity in the Nigeria’s corporate business circle, banking industry in particular, was when he first took an appointment with the defunct Icon Limited (Merchant Bankers) in the mid eighties. Lamido’s hard work, resilience and exceptional dedication to his duties paved his way to rising to the position of the Area Manager, Kano. His desire and unflinching commitment to knowledge and its continued pursuit, informed his voluntary resignation from the then Icon Limited in order to pursue higher education in the far away Khartoum, Sudan. Among the many experiences he gained while in the Icon Limited include; financial advisory services, debt conversion, credit and marketing knowledge and its applications.
After Lamido’s successful further studies in Sudan, United Bank for Africa (UBA) searched for him and appointed him its Principal Manager II in the Risk Management Division of the bank in the month of May, 1997. As usual with Lamido, his managerial expertise and being time bound in discharging his duties in this division made him rose up to the position of the Principal Manager I in January, 1998, and its Assistant General Manager (AGM), that same year. According to a source in the UBA, Lamido proposed and spearheaded the establishment of the Group Risk Department of the bank. He was appointed to head it and tasked with the responsibility of transforming the previous Credit Risk Division into an Enterprise Risk Management Sector of the bank.
Lamido’s impressive performance and rich profile in credit risk management left the First Bank Nigeria Plc with no better choice, than to invite him and appoint him its Executive Director Risk Management. “Dan halas” meaning “genuine son in Hausa” did not disappoint the management of this Elephant Bank (as it is widely known and called across the country). He opened the treasure of his wealth of experience acquired over the years and appropriately applied them in discharging his duties in this post. He, within a short time, reformed the bank’s risk management structure by breaking it into four departments; Operations Risk Department, Market Risk Department, Credit Analysis and Processing Department and Credit Monitoring and Control Department.
Sanusi Lamido’s golden cap of success in the First Bank before his new appointment to lead it, was taking the credit risk management profile of the bank to an unprecedented level, through effective and maximum utilization of the natural disposition of all the staff under his control.
On the educational side of his life, Lamido is a 1981 graduate of Economics from the famous West African University, Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria. Before then, he satisfactorily attended St. Annes Primary School, Kakuri, Kaduna, and the prestigious Kings College Lagos between the years 1973 – 1977. Not too long after his graduation, Lamido went back to ABU for his Post Graduate Studies. Between the years 1991 – 1997, he was at the International University of Africa, Khartoum, Sudan, where he first studied Arabic before obtaining a second Bachelor’s Degree, this time in Islamic Law.
From the beginning of his banking career to date, Lamido has attended numerous in service training courses both in Nigeria and in the over seas. His mastery of Credit Risk Management knowledge made him to be the first choice of organizers of public forum that has to do with business risk management both locally and abroad.




http://www.triumphnewspapers.com/san712009.html

This is a good write-up by Triumph for Dan Halas
Does anybody have any negative info. on this guy? This is the time to bring it up.
Did he forget to pay a parking ticket?
How about any child support, does any prostitute remember not being well settled by this guy since he graduated from high school in 1977
Any agrieved wife or wives who would like to spill the bean on this guy?
How about co-workers; anyone with a back stab wound from him
We just want to know now, or for ever keep your peace.

naijaking1:

This is a good write-up by Triumph for Dan Halas
Does anybody have any negative info. on this guy? This is the time to bring it up.
Did he forget to pay a parking ticket?
How about any child support, does any prostitute remember not being well settled by this guy since he graduated from high school in 1977
Any agrieved wife or wives who would like to spill the bean on this guy?
How about co-workers; anyone with a back stab wound from him
We just want to know now, or for ever keep your peace.

I personally did an internet dig on the guy . . . . because initially the idea that he went as far as Sudan to study Sharia made me go like are we looking for a SULTAN or a CBN Governor

However his discription about Buhari's perception in the South in terms of being broadminded tells me more about how he thinks

just click on the mp3 audio Link 'Sanusi Lamido' to hear his view on Yar'adua's election

http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2007-04/2007-04-23-voa3.cfm?moddate=2007-04-23

biina:

I gave the example of the street hawker to show how unreasonable an argument can get when one start to apply butterfly effect principles. You should go back to the original post by naijaking1 (in which he predicted an hopeless drop in the naira simply on the appointment of the CBN governor) before you degenerate this into a discussion on 6 degrees of separation.

Nigeria is a one dimensional export country (with crude oil being our primary source of forex), with heavy importation (not surprising given the poor state of our economy), resulting in huge trade deficit and a weakened currency. This is the primary factor affecting the value of the naira (but if you disagree I am all ears). The policy of the CBN and other actions by the government (or its parastatals) bring secondary effects.

For example:

1. The unrest in the Niger delta will likely result in reduced oil production and export which will lead to less forex income for the nation and will likely weaken the naira. Should I then conclude that MEND will devalue the naira? 
2. The incumbent CBN governor moved from the old DAS, where the banks could only buy forex from the CBN based on expressed demands and prior cash commitment of their customers, to a more liberlized market where banks are now allowed to purchase foreign exchange based on their speculative estimates of their customers’ foreign exchange demands. This has likely led to an increase in the demand for forex and further weakened the Naira. This is a more direct effect as compared to the previous case.

We can go on analyzing how the actions in a part of the government, private sector, or foreign government, affects the value of the naira, but the truth is that the appointment of a CBN governor is far from the war front in its effect.

As to the FT article, I really don't see the relevance to the discussion, as it did not say anything as to the direct effect (positive or negative) of the appointment on the currency.

To predict the fall of the Naira simply on the appointment of a CBN governor is erroneous.

Sure its easy for any one to apply "butterfly effect" analysis, the question would simply be on the actual significance of such an effect on the wider scale and such can be a guide as to how 'reasonable' or 'unreasonable' such an analysis would be. Now if you want to apply such analysis to the point where you want to acess the impact a street hawker would have on the economy and more specifically forex then that is your prerogative. I don't think I actually need to add anything more to my post, I used the simple port example to explain how such things like trade and forex which actually effect the value of the naira can be influenced by leadership and I think all I wrote was adequate enough.

The value of a country's currency is primarily affected by trade (imports-exports) which can be easily influenced by leadership (i.e. change in policies, efficiency of the systems - e.g. the port example, management, etc) right or wrong? So as you can see though it is possible to argue that the currency value is based solely on trade, can you now see why such would be an inadequate statement considering a host of basic factors which affect trade in the first place?

I have nothing against the new guy sugested, infact he even seems like a choice candidate though I would not be able to vouch for him until I hear his perspective of things via an interview or whatever. However I think while you could argue that @naijaking's postulations might have been a tad contrived though valid, I think yours were way too simplistic and too text book.

Nice discuss, lot of folks here are making absolute sense in their write ups!.

However, like someone said earlier, let just pray for the success of whoever becomes the CBN gov. His success is for the overall benefit of all Nigerians.

Once again kudos guys.

@ sky blue,

honestly am gaining from this debate.

pls, what is butterfly effect analysis

Is the Lamido Sanusi, a relative or associate of the former cbn governor b4 Charles Solude.

Oil Price Decline Drives Cuts in 2009 Nigerian Federal Budget
By Howard Lesser
Washington, DC
20 October 2008

First Bank of Nigeria's Lamido Sanusi

http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2008-10/2008-10-20-voa3.cfm?moddate=2008-10-20

jimmysho:

@ sky blue,

honestly am gaining from this debate.

pls, what is butterfly effect analysis

LOL. I was just quoting a statement @binna used to explain how external factors can affect the markets. Please don't be fooled into thinking its anything complex because I chose to give it a name. Trade and the market isn't a closed system and you can't just be basing everything on what you read in text book because real life happens and most if not all of it is common sense when explained. A lot of external factors can affect trade and markets in general which is why the markets in New York obviously did badly after september 11 2001. For example gold has always been historically seen as valuable and hence a "sure thing" which is of substance and seen by people as valuable, as a result in a recession prices of gold always tend to go up because people invest money in gold due to the value attached to it as a means of bypassing fluctuating currency values and investing in something that can be traded in later to redeem invested money. There was actually a time in history when the dollar was backed by gold (i.e. it could be redeemed by its weight in gold if I am not mistaken).

Market confidence in a particular currency can also easily affect the value of that currency. It is quite straightforward really, if the currency is perceived to be valuable then that currency is obtained in bulk, making it a bit more difficult to obtain and hence more valuable. The dollar has been seen as a standard trading currency the world over, partly because America is the largest market in the world hence everybody trades with the country and uses its currency, and partly because of the stability of the country. As a result, most people prefer to trade in dollars, which is why the value of the dollar actually went up when the recession really set in, people invested in something they perceived as valuable and bought up the dollar hence making it more scarce. So when the value of the dollar increased was it directly as a result of ratio of imports to exports? See what I mean? There are a host of factors and maintaining an economy and a currency is a balancing act of a host of factors.

America has a stable democracy and more importantly are perceived to have a stable a stable democracy. In Nigeria and Africa in general, due to political unstability and perceptions, etc, whereby a change in power does not guarantee a continuation of fundamental policies (due to weak institutions), people are less willing to take such risks and trade in a country's currency. I mean, wasn't there a debate sometime last year when Soludo was thinking of asking the President to pay government officials in dollars?

thank u my brother

when would this slavery of the south by the north end. when? every key position in this country is held by he hausa man and yet they are the most unproductive set of people the world has ever known anyway majority of them are very low in intellect however i must say a couple of them have been able to surpass the norm

naijaking1:

Are you not being disengenious? I listed 4 factors that could undermine the value of the naira, and you've obviously chosen to stick to the one dearest to your heart. Please go back and re-read my post.

being disingenuous? not at all. Our initial exchanges are there for all to read.
You initial statement in response to the OP was "I predict a hopeless drop in naira". Which I questioned
You listed four factors (having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve.) that you said would all be affected by the appointment of a new CBN governor that would in turn result to 'a hopeless drop in the Naira'.

New CBN governor -----> having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve ----->hopeless drop in the naira
(please feel free to correct any misrepresentation)

I don't see the single factor I am holding on to except the single underlying premise of your argument (appointment of the CBN governor). I simply disagree with your evaluation of the effect of the appointment of a new CBN governor resulting in a drop of the naira. In fact, if one tows mikeansy's line, the appointment would improve the economy.

One step forward,three steps backward.crazy motherfuckers.Why can't he let this chap(solodo) that seem to have good agendas continue for another five year?no,i don't think they like the sanitize bureau de change and other sensible policies he might have come up with.

Discontinuity and lawlessness seems to be the order of the day in nigeria as a of result quota fu cking system,favouritism at the expense of competence

biina:

being disingenuous? not at all. Our initial exchanges are there for all to read.
You initial statement in response to the OP was "I predict a hopeless drop in naira". Which I questioned
You listed four factors (having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve.) that you said would all be affected by the appointment of a new CBN governor that would in turn result to 'a hopeless drop in the Naira'.

New CBN governor -----> having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve ----->hopeless drop in the naira
(please feel free to correct any misrepresentation)
I don't see the single factor I am holding on to except the single underlying premise of your argument (appointment of the CBN governor). I simply disagree with your evaluation of the effect of the appointment of a new CBN governor resulting in a drop of the naira. In fact, if one tows mikeansy's line, the appointment would improve the economy.

Insinuations don't represent my thoughts. I could see the many leaps in logic you've taken to arrive at your false conculsion. If you can't show me where I stated, in words or in diagram, the above highlighted misrepresentation of yours, then you ought to be ashamed
If you don't then I'll end discussion on this topic with you.

@jimmysho
Butterfly effect simply means every little event/action could have a serious effect on a subsequent event/action that is faraway from the initial event. It is a description of the sensitivity of initial condition in Chaos theory.The phrase is coined from statements like "A butterfly flapping his wings in Rio can cause a tsunami in Tokyo".
For more information check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

Under  butterfly effect principles, one can claim that a seemingly trivial event can have a serious impact on a more significant event. For example, me coughing in Naija can make Obama have an heart attack. It essentially threads a trail of 'ifs' and 'thens' to try to relate the two unrelated events, at the expense of more serious contributors (like Obama's health in this case)

naijaking1:

Insinuations don't represent my thoughts. I could see the many leaps in logic you've taken to arrive at your false conculsion. If you can't show me where I stated, in words or in diagram, the above highlighted misrepresentation of yours, then you ought to be ashamed
If you don't then I'll end discussion on this topic with you.

You seem to be in a quandary and are now trying to bail your self out on a technicality. Below is the initial exchange:

naijaking1: I predict a hopeless drop in naira

biina: why?

naijaking1: It's all about having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve.

biina: and which of those would change based on the choice of a new cbn governor?

naijaking1: all

My deductions are that you predicted a hopeless drop in the naira because it is all about having confidence in the naira, the government, the export, and reserve, factors which are all affected by the appointment of the CBN governor.

Please provide your deductions?

@sky blue
You seem to have broadened the discussion to the general issue of currency valuation. I had already cautioned that the discussion should be kept in context.
The strength of your analysis is conditioned on the economy in question. In the case of Nigeria, your analysis, like the butterfly effect, threads a trail of ifs and maybes and goes towards secondary contributors.

The value of the naira is primarily governed by oil revenue and I don't see how the appointment of a new CBN governor would (not could) lead to a hopeless drop in the Naira.

If you have a contrary opinion to my last statement, please share, else there is no point in the discussion.

namun:

when would this slavery of the south by the north end. when? every key position in this country is held by he hausa man and yet they are the most unproductive set of people the world has ever known anyway majority of them are very low in intellect however i must say a couple of them have been able to surpass the norm

Have you really done an analysis of key positions in the country before your conclusion. State your fact if you have it, or are you saying Northerners are not entitled to appointments even if they qualified. The most important thing is good results, zoning and federal character are not always best if you really want meritorious assignment remember. Let us wish the new CBN governor well as his failure would affect all he will still collect his salary any how.

My opinion all this while had been that Soludo should be given second term. I had also tipped Okonjo Iweala, for her grip of world banking and international recognition capable of currying favour to Nigeria in the global financial scene. I also looked at the direction of an insider or anybody that had held a top position in CBN before. Shamsudeen Usman, as a former CBn governor, would have easily been my choice here but I'm not too impressed with his barely visible posture as Finance minister.

Although I had known Shamsudeen Usman for over 10 years, and I first heard about Sanusi mid-last year, I think Sanusi is not a bad choice. I have heard and read much about his brilliance. I was opportuned to meet him after Jumaat in a Mosque in VI a couple of months ago and I saw humility written all over him. But don't get me wrong, I'm not saying humility will translate to good performance.

Much has been said about his Credit & Enterprise risk management expertise, and commentators seem to be unanimous that he's Nigeria's best brain in this aspect of banking. This I believe will be useful in his new job.

But his greatest challenge, I think, will be surpassing his predecessor, Soludo. He will easily be benchmarked against the Anambra-born Economist, and he needs to work double hard to match Soludo. Soludo's visibility, vocal prowess and understanding of global economy is hard to match by someone with no experience in international economy.

I wish Sanusi, one of the people I look up to as an Economics graduate myself, all the best.

Interesting observations.
Only comment I can make at this time is: We've certainly come a long way since Abdulkadir Ahmed and a host of other faceless CBN governors.
At least now they put feelers out there to feel the pulse on certain candidates. Democracy is truly working, as absurd as that might sound.

sartorius:

What set the beginning of Mr. Lamido’s name coming into touch with as well as popularity in the Nigeria’s corporate business circle, banking industry in particular, was when he first took an appointment with the defunct Icon Limited (Merchant Bankers) in the mid eighties. Lamido’s hard work, resilience and exceptional dedication to his duties paved his way to rising to the position of the Area Manager, Kano. His desire and unflinching commitment to knowledge and its continued pursuit, informed his voluntary resignation from the then Icon Limited in order to pursue higher education in the far away Khartoum, Sudan. Among the many experiences he gained while in the Icon Limited include; financial advisory services, debt conversion, credit and marketing knowledge and its applications.
After Lamido’s successful further studies in Sudan, United Bank for Africa (UBA) searched for him and appointed him its Principal Manager II in the Risk Management Division of the bank in the month of May, 1997. As usual with Lamido, his managerial expertise and being time bound in discharging his duties in this division made him rose up to the position of the Principal Manager I in January, 1998, and its Assistant General Manager (AGM), that same year. According to a source in the UBA, Lamido proposed and spearheaded the establishment of the Group Risk Department of the bank. He was appointed to head it and tasked with the responsibility of transforming the previous Credit Risk Division into an Enterprise Risk Management Sector of the bank.
Lamido’s impressive performance and rich profile in credit risk management left the First Bank Nigeria Plc with no better choice, than to invite him and appoint him its Executive Director Risk Management. “Dan halas” meaning “genuine son in Hausa” did not disappoint the management of this Elephant Bank (as it is widely known and called across the country). He opened the treasure of his wealth of experience acquired over the years and appropriately applied them in discharging his duties in this post. He, within a short time, reformed the bank’s risk management structure by breaking it into four departments; Operations Risk Department, Market Risk Department, Credit Analysis and Processing Department and Credit Monitoring and Control Department.
Sanusi Lamido’s golden cap of success in the First Bank before his new appointment to lead it, was taking the credit risk management profile of the bank to an unprecedented level, through effective and maximum utilization of the natural disposition of all the staff under his control.
On the educational side of his life, Lamido is a 1981 graduate of Economics from the famous West African University, Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria. Before then, he satisfactorily attended St. Annes Primary School, Kakuri, Kaduna, and the prestigious Kings College Lagos between the years 1973 – 1977. Not too long after his graduation, Lamido went back to ABU for his Post Graduate Studies. Between the years 1991 – 1997, he was at the International University of Africa, Khartoum, Sudan, where he first studied Arabic before obtaining a second Bachelor’s Degree, this time in Islamic Law.
From the beginning of his banking career to date, Lamido has attended numerous in service training courses both in Nigeria and in the over seas. His mastery of Credit Risk Management knowledge made him to be the first choice of organizers of public forum that has to do with business risk management both locally and abroad.




http://www.triumphnewspapers.com/san712009.html

I have long stopped being impressed by CVs of Nigerian's in the corridor of power. at the end of the day, it never tallies.
all the Dora Akunyilis and Olusegun Adeniyi had seemingly enviable Cvs before they sold their souls for the mediocrity called Yar Adua's govt.
look at their performance now.
I just hope Mr Lamido sorts out this forex issue and try and get govt to stop depleting foreign reserves in the name of fiancing budget deficit that will have no effect on GDP.
those are my only 2 prayers.

i really wonder when we will have an independent CBN governor who will run just tailor monetary policies to suit aso rock.

biina:

@sky blue
You seem to have broadened the discussion to the general issue of currency valuation. I had already cautioned that the discussion should be kept in context.
The strength of your analysis is conditioned on the economy in question. In the case of Nigeria, your analysis, like the butterfly effect, threads a trail of ifs and maybes and goes towards secondary contributors.

The value of the naira is primarily governed by oil revenue and I don't see how the appointment of a new CBN governor would (not could) lead to a hopeless drop in the Naira.

If you have a contrary opinion to my last statement, please share, else there is no point in the discussion.

No worries, I already concluded the discussion was futile as far back as yesterday. Only reason I posted anymore was because someone enquired. You asked how and I keep on giving reasons on how but you rather select what you want to take so there is not point.

The only reason I joined this discource was due to the postulation you made that the value of a currency is solely dependent on trade and that leadership as an issue pales in significance. I told you that such was a text book approach and not based in reality because leadership can in fact have an effect due to confidence that such might inspire. I explained that the increase in value of the dollar during the recession was in fact not due to ratio of imports to exports at all (something you choose to keep hammering on about as the sole factor the determines the value of a currency). I have used examples upon examples and illustrations and all you seem to come up with is that such is removed from reality or too contrived even when I have showed direct links via illustrations used. The issue which @naijaking highlighted was confidence, something that was obvious from his initial post. I again, directly illustrated that a change in leadership in Nigeria easily rattles confidence and perception (which is a very strong real world and perhaps not text book factor that easily affects a finance system based a lot of the time on speculation) due to the weak institutions in the country that does not guarantee continuity. So I will leave it there because it seems futile anyway. Have a nice day and don't be offended if I don't respond any further, I have lost interest  .

Obviously Mr President is smart enough to know whom to pick as a replacement for a seasoned economist such as Soludo.
And Lamido Sanusi seems to be a good match with a possibility of surprises that can only be good for Nigerians.
Plus, Sanusi's antecedents show that he is "not part of the establishment" (if you know what i mean) and that's another plus for Nigeria.
I wish him luck but like others said, this speculation must end. I am fine with Soludo or Sanusi, which is more than i can say for past CBN governors (northerners and southerners)

. . . And Dan Alas is an Arsenal fan!

Me I no think say Sanusi go replace Soludo. Person wey dem dey replace no dey announce the kind major policy change wey Soludo announce on Saturday.

THE Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will soon flood the Nigerian economy with dollars as it has liberalised the foreign exchange market. Governor of the CBN, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, announced the new measure, at the weekend, in Abuja, after a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).


Soludo, while briefing the press, disclosed that the MPC had decided to return to a regime of fully liberalised foreign exchange market over the next three months.


As a first set of measures towards the return to Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS), Professor Soludo said the committee decided to increase the net foreign exchange open position for banks from one per cent to 2.5 per cent with immediate effect, while keeping in view the possibility of raising it further at the end of June 2009.


Announcing the lifting of suspension on interbank market , the apex bank boss said banks were no longer mandatorily required to sell to the CBN after five days. Instead, funds sourced from non Retail Dutch Auction System (RDAS) and non-oil export proceeds could now be used to fund the interbank market.


Also, Professor Soludo said the MPC had decided to remove the requirement that banks transact foreign exchange at one per cent around the CBN rate, stressing that the CBN itself would now participate in the interbank foreign exchange market at the prevailing rate.


Disclosing that the RDAS would now be done twice weekly, Professor Soludo said approval in principle had been granted to 50 non-bank class ‘A’ Bureau De Change (BDC) which would be selling US$60m every week.


“The BDCs are expected to sell at retail rate not more than 2.0 per cent above the CBN rate,” Professor Soludo disclosed. To further increase dollar outlets in the Nigerian economy, Professor Soludo said government agencies and oil companies could now keep their dollars as against the former practice of selling them to the apex bank.


Instead, Soludo said they have the discretion to sell foreign exchange at the interbank foreign exchange market or to the CBN with effect from today. To firm up the value of the Naira, Professor Soludo said the MPC had decided to mop up excess liquidity from the system.


He said this would be done using short-term instruments in tandem with the Debt Management Office (DMO), through the issuance of Federal Government bonds.


He said following the revision of money and foreign exchange markets development, the committee noted the need to address the problem of excess liquidity in the system without necessarily putting pressure on interest rates.


According to him, in view of the stability achieved in the forex market, MPC had consequently decided to review the series of control instituted in the last few months and return to the fully liberalised regime in the next three months.


“So, as a result of all these factors,” Soludo said, “the MPC has given the apex bank the mandate to mop up excess liquidity from the economy.”

See the link  http://www.tribune.com.ng/25052009/news/news3.html

hmm, another former MD taking over at the CBN? hmmm. goodluck o

MrCrackles:

Lamido Sanusi?

Dont even know him!

Just as we did not know Soludo, Iweala, Ekwesuili, Akunyili, Ribadu, etc before Obasanjo appointed them. Those we know very well, what have they done. It is high time we have people not so know but can do the work in place to move the country forward. Enough of recycle.