http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/this-is-why-goldman-thinks-oil-is-headed-to-dollar20/ar-BBnGHUU?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=SK2DDHP

The investment bank is standing by its prediction of $20 a barrel bottom—the breakeven cash cost for highly levered high-cost US shale producers. If oil prices fall below that level, companies will have to make output cuts in order to avert losses.

Even though global oil stock will remain below storage capacity, Goldman said the rebalancing is "far from achieved" as U.S. rig count and exploration and production guidance are "too high" to achieve the required supply decline.

OPEC is also likely to pump aggressively toward the high-end of Goldman's 32-million-barrel a day forecast as Iran resumes productions after U.S. sanctions are lifted over the next few months.

Oil storage also runs the risk of hitting constraints by next spring.

Oil prices have fallen over 50 percent in the last 18 months due to burgeoning energy supply and slowing demand.

"The post-OPEC oil price decline accelerated as the discord between members became more apparent and the lack of a supply response more certain. The meeting confirmed our view that it is not in OPEC's interest to balance the market in the face of still growing higher-cost production," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report Thursday.

OPEC's resolve was strengthened after U.S. production picked up once prices neared $60 a barrel this summer, they added.

The group of 13 oil-producing countries has kept its production ceiling around 30 million barrels a day for years, with kingpin Saudi Arabia standing firm against an output cut in order to maintain market share and drive higher cost producers out.

"Despite the fiscal challenges that low oil prices create now, the alternative of cutting production reduces long-term revenues instead," said the Goldman Sachs analysts.

Oil prices are now near seven-year-lows with U.S. WTI crude prices are around $35 a barrel—below Goldman's three-month $38 a barrel forecast—while Brent crude is now around $37 a barrel.

OPEC said in its latest monthly report that the supply of oil from countries outside of the cartel will contract next year.

Some market watchers who see OPEC's strategy working eye a rebound in prices by late 2016.

Analysts at Societe Generale said in a note Friday that they expect Brent oil to rebound to $60 a barrel in the fourth quarter of next year due to a drop in stockbuild growth in the second half of the year.

"Saudi Arabia's policy change in November 2014, when it decided to stop defending prices and pursue a market-share strategy by maximizing production of its low-cost crude is beginning to bear fruit: US shale oil production has started to drop," the SocGen analysts wrote .

FTC... This one is original

Everything continues pointing to a torrid 2016. In the words of the Finance Minister we should brace-up for a tough time.

What are we doing to survive this inevitable recession in 2016?

# Do we still need N120 billion/year maintained 469-membered NASS? These people add no meaningful value to quality of our lives.
# Are we really helpless against the monster of corruption and waste the NASS has been turned into?
# Do we still need Governors having security votes running into billions of naira? Police and Army provide security so why give billions to Governors?
# Do we really need big government as we have now? We should stop pretending to be America.
# Shouldn’t BSc/HND graduates be encouraged to continue their education to MSc/MBA/PhD during recession?
# Shouldn't young adults be encouraged/empowered to team-up and embrace entrepreneurship?
# Are we still pondering on cutting down foreign missions with little or no benefits?
# Must we host those expensive global events when we can barely feed our people?
# Do we still need lavish family celebrations of public office holders
# What is the blue-print for the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Solid minerals (on economic diversification)?
# Shouldn’t government focus more on wealth creation among citizens than increasing internally generated revenue?
# Do we really need to drive around when there is a cheaper public transport?
# How mentally prepared are security operatives to handle temper, violence and frictions which are natural corollary of recession?

Very very interesting times ahead.

Interesting

This is not a good one.

Nigeria can hold out till this time next year. But if things don't begin to change in 9 months time, the recession will bite very hard because we aren't prepared.

I pity PMB, Osinbajo, and Adeosun, this shit is about to get real.

-Lord

The Apc Government is not done yet with celebrating thier HISTORIC VICTORY. Moreso they have not taken possesion of Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Taraba, when they take possesion they can now concentrate on RECESSION.

Shale oil is already $35/ barrel...

If crude goes to $20...


Hehehehe...




We're dead!!!

The new oil money is technology and Agricultural produce.. What is this government doing to diversify the economy or are they still exploring lake chad basin? Nigeria is finished..

its Friday, If Oyel price like make e crash to zero, Nigerians must survive.
Abeg make I dance Shoki jo.


Nigerians never give up. We must survive without Oyel, dont allow them to swallow you.

Saudi de mad o... But I see the price of crude oil bouncing back in the second and third quarter of 2016...

Officially, we are in recession 2016.

http://thenationonlineng.net/nigerias-economy-may-slip-into-recession-cbn-warns/

http://www.punchng.com/news/nigerias-economy-could-slip-into-recession-cbn-warns/

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/09/nigerian-economy-heading-for-recession/

How to Survive a Recession

http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Recession

The economy always has and always will have its ups and downs. It's easy to coast through the good times, but how do you come out of the tough times unscathed?

1. Talk it over. Sit down with every member of your household and go over your finances.

How you resolve and differences in your approach to money will have a profound effect on your relationship's chances of succeeding: Take a Healthy Approach to Finances in Your Relationship
Now is the perfect time to set an example of your children, and show them how a family can pull together during tough times and everyone can chip in: Teach Your Child About Budgeting and Get Adult Kids to Pay Their Share


2. Set financial goals. Focus on paying off debt and saving an emergency fund. If you don't already have you an adequate emergency fund set aside, specify a goal for how much money you want to add to it every month, and put an equal amount towards paying off your highest interest debt. Pay yourself first.

While normally, it's recommended that a two-income couple keep three months' worth of expenses in an emergency fund, during a downturn the recommended time is six months instead, especially if you're in an industry that gets hit hard by a recession (construction, financial services, food) and if you're a one-income family. If you're self-employed, you should set aside up to a year's worth of expenses.


3. Cut costs. There are a number of ways to reduce expenses.

Cut discretionary spending. Buy nothing. Resist sales pitches. Don't even think about using that new credit card offer in the mail, even if it does have a low APR and no payments for two years--evaluate it carefully. When you do need to buy things, haggle. But this is a good time, overall, to determine the difference between what you want and what you need, and reconsider your values - is your current standard of living really worth hanging onto?
Transportation - Carpool as much as you can. Consider commuting by bicycle or even living without a car. But if that's not practical, look for ways to save money on gas, even if it means hypermiling.
Housing - Get a roommate or consider relocating to an area with a lower cost of living. Maybe you can move in with family members until the economic downturn blows over. Keeping the peace in a multigenerational household isn't always easy, but it has its own rewards.
Food - Stop going out to eat; instead, try to cook at home from scratch more often. Consider the benefits of the slow food movement. If you don't have enough time to cook, try doing it just once a month. Find good deals at a local farmers' market.


4. Keep the money flowing in.

If you have a job, be an amazing employee. Now is not the time to slack. Show up early, stay late, and volunteer for projects. Pick up the slack for other workers; it's what will happen when people get laid off, anyway, so now is the time to prove yourself. Look for ways to save your employer money, especially if you see your employer doing little things to that effect, like encouraging employees to turn of their computers. Try to quantify your efforts in terms of how you've raised profits and cut costs. Start networking so that in case you still get laid off, you have a safety net of contacts who might be able to help.
If you own a business, develop a risk management plan if you haven't already. Find ways to reduce expenses, e.g. Virtualize Your Workforce. Improve Service Quality at Your Business so that budget-strapped customers will want to use your products or services through tough times.
If you don't have a job, find other ways to make money fast. Focus on cutting your expenses, as described in the previous step, and consider volunteering; if you've got the spare time, there are organizations that will need your help, and you could establish good karma in your community.


5. Enjoy life.
In order to avoid recession depression, don't let fear control you; an intense feeling of paranoia can make you an inflexible employee and also strain your relationships. Be thankful for what you have, and make sure to have fun. Instead of not taking a family vacation, for example, take a Staycation or Exchange Your Home for Free Vacation Accommodation instead; invite your family to think of creative ways to save money without skimping on happiness. Accept difficult times as a challenge for your fortitude and adaptability.

Na to shine our eyes be dat o

If only we can follow the Russian example. Russia is no doubt a world power with advancement in technology. Russia has set a target of replacing foreign goods and services with local ones in the next 7 years. If only we could stop money going out via import of rice, wheat, flour, shoes, and most commodities we spend some 85-90% our monies on then we can greatly slow capital flight and in the process employ the equivalent of the foreign worker who hitherto produced such goods. Buhari is simply our best bet to oversee such hard time.
By now I expect the advocate of previous govt to know that the $37/b oil price can barely sustain the recurrent bill left for the current admin.

Lord have mercy on us

Ghandi12:
How to Survive a Recession

http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Recession

The economy always has and always will have its ups and downs. It's easy to coast through the good times, but how do you come out of the tough times unscathed?

1. Talk it over. Sit down with every member of your household and go over your finances.

How you resolve and differences in your approach to money will have a profound effect on your relationship's chances of succeeding: Take a Healthy Approach to Finances in Your Relationship
Now is the perfect time to set an example of your children, and show them how a family can pull together during tough times and everyone can chip in: Teach Your Child About Budgeting and Get Adult Kids to Pay Their Share


2. Set financial goals. Focus on paying off debt and saving an emergency fund. If you don't already have you an adequate emergency fund set aside, specify a goal for how much money you want to add to it every month, and put an equal amount towards paying off your highest interest debt. Pay yourself first.

While normally, it's recommended that a two-income couple keep three months' worth of expenses in an emergency fund, during a downturn the recommended time is six months instead, especially if you're in an industry that gets hit hard by a recession (construction, financial services, food) and if you're a one-income family. If you're self-employed, you should set aside up to a year's worth of expenses.


3. Cut costs. There are a number of ways to reduce expenses.

Cut discretionary spending. Buy nothing. Resist sales pitches. Don't even think about using that new credit card offer in the mail, even if it does have a low APR and no payments for two years--evaluate it carefully. When you do need to buy things, haggle. But this is a good time, overall, to determine the difference between what you want and what you need, and reconsider your values - is your current standard of living really worth hanging onto?
Transportation - Carpool as much as you can. Consider commuting by bicycle or even living without a car. But if that's not practical, look for ways to save money on gas, even if it means hypermiling.
Housing - Get a roommate or consider relocating to an area with a lower cost of living. Maybe you can move in with family members until the economic downturn blows over. Keeping the peace in a multigenerational household isn't always easy, but it has its own rewards.
Food - Stop going out to eat; instead, try to cook at home from scratch more often. Consider the benefits of the slow food movement. If you don't have enough time to cook, try doing it just once a month. Find good deals at a local farmers' market.


4. Keep the money flowing in.

If you have a job, be an amazing employee. Now is not the time to slack. Show up early, stay late, and volunteer for projects. Pick up the slack for other workers; it's what will happen when people get laid off, anyway, so now is the time to prove yourself. Look for ways to save your employer money, especially if you see your employer doing little things to that effect, like encouraging employees to turn of their computers. Try to quantify your efforts in terms of how you've raised profits and cut costs. Start networking so that in case you still get laid off, you have a safety net of contacts who might be able to help.
If you own a business, develop a risk management plan if you haven't already. Find ways to reduce expenses, e.g. Virtualize Your Workforce. Improve Service Quality at Your Business so that budget-strapped customers will want to use your products or services through tough times.
If you don't have a job, find other ways to make money fast. Focus on cutting your expenses, as described in the previous step, and consider volunteering; if you've got the spare time, there are organizations that will need your help, and you could establish good karma in your community.


5. Enjoy life.
In order to avoid recession depression, don't let fear control you; an intense feeling of paranoia can make you an inflexible employee and also strain your relationships. Be thankful for what you have, and make sure to have fun. Instead of not taking a family vacation, for example, take a Staycation or Exchange Your Home for Free Vacation Accommodation instead; invite your family to think of creative ways to save money without skimping on happiness. Accept difficult times as a challenge for your fortitude and adaptability.

Your reply addresses recession from individual stand point. As a nation, we must quickly seek to replace imported goods and services with local ones and push to export more produce to the dollar domain. If as a bee keeping honey exporter I used to make sales of $1000 every 3 months (quarterly) when dollar changed for N165/$, it means N165,000 earning. Now that same dollar goes for, let's say N220/$ to be conservative, $1000 will mean a N220,000 earning. Exportation helps cushion the effect of recession for the whole economy.
Decreased importation is equally as effective as increased exportation. What sold for $1000(N165,000) will now sell for N220,000. In addition to management at personal level as described by you,an aggressive drive to export as much as possible as an economic unit will help replace the funds dwindling oil prices and market has taken out of earnings.

Na people Wey no know their stands dey bother about all these Economic melt down/recession and all that.

It's a very sensitive moment for certain people to soar............

$20 too big sef. make d price drop to $5 per barel.

Are we prepared for anything in Nigeria?? Even if its 5 dollars dey will still steal their own, it won't be worse than this. Patapata revolution will be triggered

What is happening to our oyel

A Country running a monolithic economy (over-dependence on oil) under a President trading in blame games on past administration, surrounded with die-hard pretenders who couldn't fix their respective constituencies which they once headed, busying themselves with dictatorial tendencies in a democracy, still lying to the citizenry through their lying liars on Nairaland that all is well with Nigeria when in actual fact Nigeria is bleeding, not passionate about good governance but making mockery of the judicial system, busy witch-hunting the opposition at the rxpence of our common patrimony, not making the will of the people to materialize in electoral matters, making bogus promises they knew all the while they would not fulfil to the citizenry, and now the big one coming, further crash in oil prices and I ask myself do we have rams as human beings in this funny Country of jokers?

which is quite possible, as a commodity trader, the only real support against it not heading to 20usd is around 33usd , should US crude price falls below 33usd, it will be heading towards the neigbourhood of 20usd.

If it gets to 20usd , many states public workforce will undoubtedly shut down, it will FORCE A way forward thinking across states in the country, and tough decisions will be made

It is well



When they say there is casting down, we will say there is lifting up.


God help the masses to help themselves