wow

when you notice any boom, send me a PM and ill show u a lil of what i learnt from that stock market thread

the strategy then was to buy with a huge sum and sell when you hit 20-25% appreciation which should be possible in 2-3 weeks

u sell, hold your money, look at the charts again and send the dough on another errand. The insurance stocks usually were the targets

i hope the post restructuring era will allow for these manipulations if not, thats bye bye to short term trading for me

Let me make an outsider comment:
I did make quite a killing in the stock market, but I spoilt it all by re-investing the profits, cos I thought the growth span would be much longer.
The bank re-capitalization, the huge sums OBJ invested in power (which was supposed to set free the real sector), Dangote's landmark aqcuisitions, I honestly felt it was going to 'rock' for a long while. So I kept re-investing, and never took the profits.
Unfortunately, everything tanked, and right now, confidence level is at its lowest. The stupid-azz cabal antics holding us all down with a half-dead prez isn't helping either.

AjanleKoko:

Let me make an outsider comment:
I did make quite a killing in the stock market, but I spoilt it all by re-investing the profits, cos I thought the growth span would be much longer.
The bank re-capitalization, the huge sums OBJ invested in power (which was supposed to set free the real sector), Dangote's landmark aqcuisitions, I honestly felt it was going to 'rock' for a long while. So I kept re-investing, and never took the profits.
Unfortunately, everything tanked, and right now, confidence level is at its lowest. The silly-azz cabal antics holding us all down with a half-dead prez isn't helping either.

all the money ure talking about werent the cause for the boom, the foreign banks came in with a lot of funds and as soon as they withdrew their cash, the market went down south.

tkb417:

wow

when you notice any boom, send me a PM and ill show u a lil of what i learnt from that stock market thread

the strategy then was to buy with a huge sum and sell when you hit 20-25% appreciation which should be possible in 2-3 weeks

u sell, hold your money, look at the charts again and send the dough on another errand. The insurance stocks usually were the targets

i hope the post restructuring era will allow for these manipulations if not, thats bye bye to short term trading for me

Wow. . this makes a lot of sense!. . . but to me it still means taking a lot of risk!

a bullish trend might not even last for more than a day!. . . it could be as a result of transitory volatility from large  buy and sell orders as opposed to fundamental volatility due to informational purposes.

What if you invested 20 million in an Insurance stock and the companies announces possible bankruptcy!

But still it sounds like a good strategy but i doubt if i can wait 2-3weeks before i offload my shares after seeing initial price gains.

I believe i can learn a lot from you, but i don't know how to PM on nairaland

AjanleKoko:

Let me make an outsider comment:
I did make quite a killing in the stock market, but I spoilt it all by re-investing the profits, cos I thought the growth span would be much longer.
The bank re-capitalization, the huge sums OBJ invested in power (which was supposed to set free the real sector), Dangote's landmark aqcuisitions, I honestly felt it was going to 'rock' for a long while. So I kept re-investing, and never took the profits.
Unfortunately, everything tanked, and right now, confidence level is at its lowest. The silly-azz cabal antics holding us all down with a half-dead prez isn't helping either.

Sorry boss. . . .your post is damn funny though

Violent

its risky but with the help of my stochastics and candle sticks, the risk of taking the plunge is low

when the charts scream buy buy buy, i doubt if the bull run will be a day or two except some real bad news truncate the movement

this is what i have tested and i trust my system

too bad, the market is so inefficient right now they dont respond to my analysis anymore

im waiting for the market to pick again and ill be right there b4 before you

violent:

Wow. . this makes a lot of sense!. . . but to me it still means taking a lot of risk!

a bullish trend might not even last for more than a day!. . . it could be as a result of transitory volatility from large  buy and sell orders as opposed to fundamental volatility due to informational purposes.

What if you invested 20 million in an Insurance stock and the companies announces possible bankruptcy!

But still it sounds like a good strategy but i doubt if i can wait 2-3weeks before i offload my shares after seeing initial price gains.

I believe i can learn a lot from you, but i don't know how to PM on nairaland

hehehe
are u a financial analyst? all your vocabs are not going unnoticed o
im just keeping quiet for u
nyways, i dont think we can PM on NL. Ill tell a MOD to send u my details

nyways, how possible is it for a company to go bankrupt with my 20 million and i wont know?
with all my years in 9ja? hehehe
it cannot happen.

tkb417:

Violent

its risky but with the help of my stochastics and candle sticks, the risk of taking the plunge is low

when the charts scream buy buy buy, i doubt if the bull run will be a day or two except some real bad news truncate the movement

this is what i have tested and i trust my system

too bad, the market is so inefficient right now they dont respond to my analysis anymore

im waiting for the market to pick again and ill be right there b4 before you

You will have to be extra fast to be there before me. . because i am repositioning my portfolio to take advantage of both upward and downside movements

Are you looking into Commodities and ETFs as well?

tkb417:

hehehe
are u a financial analyst? all your vocabs are not going unnoticed o
im just keeping quiet for u
nyways, i dont think we can PM on NL. Ill tell a MOD to send u my details

nyways, how possible is it for a company to go bankrupt with my 20 million and i wont know?
with all my years in 9ja? hehehe
it cannot happen.

Oga tkb417, no kill me with laughter for here jor!

I have read your posts in lots of previous Finance threads. . and i only looked forward to gaining more from you!

violent:


You will have to be extra fast to be there before me. . because i am repositioning my portfolio to take advantage of both upward and downside movements

Are you looking into Commodities and ETFs as well?

we shall see . . . .
Commodities and ETF securities in Nigeria (NSE)?
how now?

are you into that in London?

tkb417:

we shall see . . . .
Commodities and ETF securities in Nigeria (NSE)?
how now?

are you into that in London?

My bad! pardon my ignorance, i thought there are some listed funds that are involved in those on the NSE.

violent:

My bad! pardon my ignorance, i thought there are some listed funds that are involved in those on the NSE.

My sis, we are just crawling; we are still at the teething stage and all other instruments are not available yet
we are strictly equity traders as we speak

no futures, no commodities, no index funds yet.

are you disappointed?

tkb417:

My sis, we are just crawling; we are still at the teething stage and all other instruments are not available yet
we are strictly equity traders as we speak

no futures, no commodities, no index funds yet.

are you disappointed?

wow!

Tell me you are kidding pls!

I'm so ignorant of the exchange, and am ashamed of it!

I'm sorry if i sound so naive but how exactly do companies manage their risk  exposure?

What kind of activities keep all the Asset Management houses in business?

I'm ashamed of that fat NSE boss for their lack of creativity and in the process loosing billions!

violent:

wow!

Tell me you are kidding pls!

I'm so ignorant of the exchange, and am ashamed of it!

I'm sorry if i sound so naive but how exactly do companies manage their risk exposure?

What kind of activities keep all the Asset Management houses in business?

I'm ashamed of that fat NSE boss for their lack of creativity and in the process loosing billions!

hehehehe

I think our Asset mgt companies are not constrained to investing only in Nigeria. we have smart individuals like you running our investment banks and for real, whoever wants to meet up with its obligations will look outside Nigeria. I have been shuttling Lagos -Accra for a while to tap into the emerging opportunities in that country. Its uncommon to see asst mgt companies delving fully into real estate and other similar ventures in Nigeria all in the name of having a diversified bouquet of investments. Our NSE platfrom as at today canot satisfy those needs and any smart thinking individual will look at the opportunities whereever they are to capture the necessary margins to pay up investors.

i am presently doing stuff with the energy desk of a bank that owns a banking franchise in Nigeria (Name stands with S) all in the name of making money which ordinarily isnt ma forte. But hey, we cant trade crude oil on the NSE and we need to make money

wow, i just read your long piece on the first page- - - - very informative and professional i must say. 

However, i saw this bit of information and i thought you are definitely kidding!. . . DEFINITELY KIDDING!

Another factor is the ability of unprofitable and illegal coys to trade effectively on the NSE. We had cases of coys like Capital oil, Afro Oil trading on the stock market with no visibile accounts, offices and no signs of any commercial activities going on in the aforementioned companies. Interestingly, these coys were much more valuable on the market than some fundamentally tested companies. or how do you explain a coy like Afroil selling for about N15 without any audited accounts for 3 years!!
No visible trade lines, no visible business and they were selling far more than say Access Bank at that time

I laughed when i saw it and i thought, your idea of a joke is definitely a classic one!

Joke?

some of my friends lost money in afroil

when the NSE and SEC woke up from their slumber, they decided to freeze the stock without any prior warning to the unsuspecting investing public
and yet again, millions went down the drain

tht wasnt a joke. It happened

It is really saddening the situation we find ourselves. I was reading a report in one of the dailies about the present crises and I'm wondering where we are headed to.

Fine we know some of the banks took very unhealthy risks and exposed themselves to certain sectors of the economy which led to the credit squeeze that we are witnessing,the other sectors of the economy the banks can invest so as to balance their portfolio are not attracting.

We complain that the major problem the real sector is the lack of infrastructure(power, roads etc) but we have a budget that dedicates just 40% to capital expenditure and 60% to recurrent

So what are the banks to do?? continue to invest in foreign entities?? keep their money or better still by into govt securities?? how do we grow the economy with that?? how do we realise our 2020 goals??

lots of questions any comments??

delcfa:

It is really saddening the situation we find ourselves. I was reading a report in one of the dailies about the present crises and I'm wondering where we are headed to.

Fine we know some of the banks took very unhealthy risks and exposed themselves to certain sectors of the economy which led to the credit squeeze that we  are witnessing,the other sectors of the economy the banks can invest so as to balance their portfolio are not attracting.

We complain that the major problem the real sector is the lack of infrastructure(power, roads etc) but we have a budget that dedicates just 40% to capital expenditure and 60% to recurrent

So what are the banks to do?? continue to invest in foreign entities?? keep their money or better still by into govt securities?? how do we grow the economy with that?? how do we realise our 2020 goals??

lots of questions any comments??

i believe what the CEOs should be doing is to look into creating and strengthening the  Investment banking arms of their various banks, this will position them at a better advantage in comparison to their counterparts who are more interested in accepting deposits and making loans. Wiser ones should look into foreign cyclical industries especially on US and UK exchanges, as this economies claim to be well positioned for a massive rebound

Nigerian govt bond to me is a No No, with a rating of B+, its probability of defaulting on payment is even higher than that of Vodafone.

and as for the question on realizing the 2020 economic goals, that, i believe rest mostly on the table of the Central bank governor, banks are in it to make pure profits!

By the way, does anyone have comments on the following

i) Mergers and Acquisitions in the country as well as the Investment banks handling them?

ii) IPO issues with a promising outlook

iii) Analysis of the stocks with the best growth prospects

@Violent
Mergers and acquisitions? In what sector?
The only thing we are expecting now is for some of these ailing banks to be put up for sale but as it is, nothing concrete is forthcoming. When I have info, ill let you

Did you ask if there are IPOs in this present 9ja?
Tell me, if you wanna raise money for ur coy, would u go to the floor of the NSE today to raise the cash?
The chances of that being a success if almost zero.
The investor confidence as regards new issues/IPO is negative right now
I have clients that are in need of cash for expansion but they all have postponed their plans for NSE. Guys are doing mez, debts or better still looking at partnering with P.E coys in raising cash

Stock analysis?
What sectors are u looking @
Maybe u and I can start a thread on stock pickinh using some technical analysis
But, ill say we shd wait till when activities pick up to a reasonable level @ the NSE b4 doing that cos I'm sure nobody is interested in buyin nothn on dt floor right now

Or what do u think?

Wow!


seems things are a little more gloomy than i assumed

If people find it difficult to raise money, more businesses will fail,  if more businesses fail, investors confidence will erode the more, that literally translates as doom for the markets!

or is there a light that i'm not seeing here?

As for stock picking, i will be happy to come along anytime you'd like to start. . i sure stand to learn a lot


@tkb417 and other Finance gurus:

How exactly do you see these markets in another 5 to 6 years based on current fundamentals?

What are the current NSE policies that stands to put the NSE in good stead in the coming years?

@violent,

So we return to the questions i asked in my previous post.
Even raising money in the debt market or through loans is now a headahe.

From my little knowledge of finance, i was made to believe that debt instruments served as a rescue option to raise capital when the securities market are bearish, but with the current shaking of the banks by the new CBN gov, banks have no motivation to borrow to the real sector (fear of defaults and bad loans) and their concern is legitimate afterall we have all accused them of making poor investment desicions.

Yes banks are all out for profits, but the finance institutions (supervised by the CBN) are also saddled with the responsibility of growing the economy that was the big idea behind the consolidation of banks by soludo

For how long will they continue to invest in foreign investments vehicles?? i think that solves the problem in the short term but about the long term

I think govt should do more in terms of infrastructure development in the long term but fiscal policies could also help short term.

I don’t think deregulation is what we should be talking about now. The cost of doing business is so high and removing subsidies will only compound the problem.

Govt should thinking about spending more to stimulate spending.

I'm not a socialist, instead a real staunch supporter of free economies, but when there is a need for govt intervention it should to stimulate growth.

So as investment professionals, what can we do??

i think the economy as a whole will rebound in say 18-36 months

the sanusis purging should engender a stable polity, stable macro economy with some new smart money coming into the country as a result of the cleansing. The companies in question should round up their debt chasing agenda in less than years and the rush to create wealth will start in earnest. when the banks are at the fore front of wealth creation, then excess liquidity will filter into the market and we smart ass investors will be back to ensure volatility.

aside the financial sector, the new P.I bill if implemented by our law makers and the stakeholders, then we should be singing a new song. However, i really would hope our NSE can go a step higher than what we have now. ( in terms of instruments traded on the floor)

my belief is that the multiplier effect of an economy on the bounce will permeate the whole fabric of the economy. Give us 3 years fellas and we shd be back on track

@tkb417,
so going forward, what are the likely instruments one should be looking at.; foreign instruments, govt bonds, forex?? heard some banks are floating bonds (GTB), any news of other corporate bonds??. how viable is the bond market now how is the rating of the bonds done??

Any suggestions??holla

Likely instruments?

our exchange is still in its formative years i guess but i think the more organised the finance profession gets in the country, the better for our financial market. I know the CFA institute came to the country late last year and met with some CEOs of top finance coys and the chaps in KPMG in order to chart ways to formalise finance and investment profession in the country. i think we now have an association just like UK SIPS and i know all hands will be on deck soon to ensure we move away from this crawling stage. i cannot say when these instruments will be on our the floor but i know the more charter holders we have in the country, the better for the profession

same for bonds. The Govt has taken up the initiative and i know state govts that are raising cash through the sale of bonds. These will naturally evolve as the market get more sophisticated.

are we just 3?

delcfa
violent
tkb

where is Disguy & Biina
what about smoooth?

Dis Guy is watching

not a really my line

delcfa:

It is really saddening the situation we find ourselves. I was reading a report in one of the dailies about the present crises and I'm wondering where we are headed to.

Fine we know some of the banks took very unhealthy risks and exposed themselves to certain sectors of the economy which led to the credit squeeze that we are witnessing,the other sectors of the economy the banks can invest so as to balance their portfolio are not attracting.

We complain that the major problem the real sector is the lack of infrastructure(power, roads etc) but we have a budget that dedicates just 40% to capital expenditure and 60% to recurrent

So what are the banks to do?? continue to invest in foreign entities?? keep their money or better still by into govt securities?? how do we grow the economy with that?? how do we realise our 2020 goals??

lots of questions any comments??

Nigerian banks are lazy!! they all do the same rudimentary stuff,
they should be more vocal in setting the agenda for the government,
instead of waiting and complaining about this or that, they somehow don't realise
how influential they are, they are more interested in outdoing each other in terms of promos and advert

tkb417:

are we just 3?

delcfa
violent
tkb

where is Disguy & Biina
what about smoooth?

and where is Jarus?

@disguy,

the govt must be at the forefront. banks and other participant in the economy should not be the ones setting agendas.
Don't forget that business without proper regulation is just like driving without breaks.
No doubt that we lack creativity in the industry, govt still needs to do more to get the economy going .
@tkb417 r u in the CFA programme also?? whats ur u upto??

guess all the bloggers are available this evening how was ur day??

i think the economy as a whole will rebound in say 18-36 months

@tkb417 obviously you're more into short term activities with which u're a master of (which u've my most undivided respect), for u to erase the fact that between your projection of a re-bound in the economy vis-a-vis the present market situation there is going to be changes in power (Election both n legislative & executive) and our dear old naija been a country too good with continuity will in my projection come with variant agenda from the inactive 7point we have or that we have not at the moment, be that has it may, with the present economic policies, i believe all and sundries are most interested in reducing significantly the effect of their exposure (thanks to meltdown), embracing a more rewarding lean and efficient market models. with the sharp continuous fall out of the real sector i think it will be very unwise to project a probable recovery for our economy at this time (one can only do so if all things are equal), with the almighty CBN and an inconsistent policy formation leader all seems not to be well with our economy, the construction industry with which i belong is bashed with this utmost reality (many construction activities no significant progress), how long will you recall any executive commissioning a throughly completed project, my oga that is the present situation we are in, in my own opinion, but i look forward in anticipation to rebound in line with ur projection. thank you

nice to see dis thread is back, left the IB/stockbroking world so av not been up to speed with a lot of happenings. took a good at stock prices today and i tink there's still hope.

@hafolabi, until d govt sets economic growth aside and focuses and long term economic development, nottin dey happen,

@tbk and violent, nice one guys, def have my audience on the stock picking thread.

delcfa:

@disguy,

the govt must be at the forefront. banks and other participant in the economy should not be the ones setting agendas.
Don't forget that business without proper regulation is just like driving without breaks.
No doubt that we lack creativity in the industry, govt still needs to do more to get the economy going .
@tkb417 r u in the CFA programme also?? whats your u upto??

yep, im a candidate.

@tkb417,
dats cool?? which lvl arre u writing now?
how do u see CFA guys making a difference in the nigerian economy??