US Army Prepares for Nigeria’s Possible Break-up
By Paul Ohia with agency report, 08.17.2009


The United States military had, in May 2008, conducted a war games test called Unified Quest 2008, to ascertain how its military might respond to a war in parts of Africa including Nigeria and Somalia.

According to an article written by Director of the African Security Research Project in Washington, DC and Guest Columnist of AllAfrica Global Media, Mr. Daniel Volman, the Nigerian scenario was predicated upon a possible war in 2013. The article observed that it was the first time the African scenarios were included, as part of Pentagon’s plan to create a new military command for Africa: the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM). It also emerged that “the free flow of natural resources from Africa to the global market” was one of the “guiding principles” of AFRICOM, as articulated by Vice Admiral Robert Moeller at an AFRICOM conference held at Fort McNair on February 18, 2008.

The 2013 war date, the article said, was a test of how AFRICOM could respond to a crisis in Nigeria in the event that rival factions and rebels fight for control of the oil fields of the Niger Delta and the government was near collapse.

Among scenarios examined, Volman said, were the possibility of direct American military intervention involving some 20,000 US troops in order to "secure the oil,” bearing in mind that Nigeria is a major supplier of US oil needs.

Also, the question of how to handle possible splits between factions within the Nigerian government was tested.

Other options included diplomatic pressure, military action, with or without the aid of European and African nations.

One participant, US Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel Mark Stanovich, drew up a plan that called for the deployment of thousands of U.S. troops within 60 days, which even he thought was undesirable, Volman stated.

"American intervention could send the wrong message: that we are backing a government that we don't intend to," Stanovich said. Other participants suggested that it would be better if the U.S. government sent a request to South Africa or Ghana to send troops into Nigeria instead,” the article stated.

According to Major Robert Thornton, an officer with the Joint Center for International Security Force Assistance at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, "it became apparent that it was actually green (the host nation government) which had the initiative, and that any blue [the U.S. government and its allies] actions within the frame were contingent upon what green was willing to tolerate and accommodate.”“As the game progressed, according to former U.S. ambassador David Lyon, it became clear that the government of Nigeria was a large part of the problem. As he put it, ‘we have a circle of elites [the government of Nigeria] who have seized resources and are trying to perpetuate themselves. Their interests are not exactly those of the people,” said the article.

“The recommendations which the participants drew up for the Army's Chief of Staff, General George Casey, do not appear to be publicly available, as what the  participants finally concluded was not known. But since the war games took place in the midst of the presidential election campaign, General Casey decided to brief both John McCain and Barack Obama on its results,” the article stated.

The game ended without military intervention because one of the rival factions executed a successful coup and formed a new government that sought stability.

AFRICOM representatives were said to be in communication throughout the test, but non of their officers were part of the event, said Volman.
Volman observed that neither the General of AFRICOM William Ward nor Vice Admiral Mueller “were under illusions about the” purpose of the command.

“Thus when General Ward appeared before the House Armed Services Committee on March 13, 2008, he cited America’s growing dependence on African oil as a priority issue for AFRICOM and went on to proclaim that combating terrorism would be “AFRICOM’s number one theatre-wide goal.” He barely mentioned development, humanitarian aid, peace-keeping or conflict resolution.”

“Since then, as General Ward has demonstrated in an interview with AllAfrica, he has become more adept at sticking to the US government official public position on AFRICOM’s aims and on its escalating military operations on the African continent,” stated the piece. Volman argued that contrary to expectations, President Obama had chosen to increase US military intervention in Africa by providing arms and training to the Transitional Government in Somalia, an attempt to make the continent a central battlefield in the “global war on terrorism.”

He further argued that the operations of AFRICOM had been expanded through a proposed budget for financial year 2010, which will provide increased security assistance to repressive regimes in Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and key US allies such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Rwanda and Uganda.

The war game test drew various participants from the State Department and other US government agencies, foreign military officers (including military representatives from several NATO countries, Australia and Israel), journalists, academics, and the private military contractors that helped run the war games: the Rand Corporation and Booz-Allen.

Another of the four scenarios that were war-gamed was a test of how AFRICOM could respond to a crisis in Somalia — set in 2025 — caused by escalating insurgency and piracy. Unfortunately, no information on the details of the scenario is available.

The five-day game was designed to look at what crisis might erupt in different parts of the world in five to 25 years and how the US might respond.  Back in 2005, the US had predicted that Nigeria would break-up in 2015. The report was highly criticised by Nigerian leaders.

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=151826

Who cares?

Ths is a very interesting topics, but I am not sure how true it is, If the americans have all that time to draw up possible scenarios, but at the same time you never know am sure they will always try to protect their interests "which in this case is nigerian oil".
But American sorry to bust your bubble a civil war will never happen in nigeria again

Excellent news. Just made my day. Just can't wait for the day Biafra will emerge from this refuse bin called nigeria.

@Poster,,

The five-day game was designed to look at what crisis might erupt in different parts of the world in five to 25 years and how the US might respond. Back in 2005, the US had predicted that Nigeria would break-up in 2015. The report was highly criticised by Nigerian leaders.
You don't need a soothsayer to tell U this,,,all the indicators are very much available pointing to this direction.Either of two things would happen on,b4 or after 2015,,,Nigeria would either break-up or there would be a New Nigeria which only the convocation of a SOVEREIGN NATIONAL CONFERENCE where Nigerians would be given the opportunity to REDEFINE how they want to continue to live together as one or how they want to go their different separate ways,,,,
Even our political Leaders re all aware about this fact,,and the truth is that the Leaders too don't believe in Nigeria the way the country is presently structured,,,,

For one second I thought I was actually watching Jack Bauer in one of the seasons of 24. Maybe this will be the theme for Season 9 or 10.

As usual the story ends well, just as the nation was about to go to a civil war one of the rebel groups took over to stabilize the country and Jack Bauer is seen being taken to the hospital in a military helicopter.

What are our movie producers actually doing when scripts like these should be fetching them millions instead of the usual 3 days movie projects they churn out every 4 days?

if we have a four site  leader they would have know there is nothing they can do to keep forcing all this deference language and deference people to accept be in one republic call Nigeria.pleas let them know that without oil HAUSA/ YORUBA can still make a successful country,
--

but at the same time you never know am sure they will always try to protect their interests "which in this case is nigerian oil".





Not. America can still do any thing to protect they interest if  to destabilizes the nation can help them protect they interest. Nigeria is not the first country , it happen in many country , check your history, i want you know many part of this country is not happy to be in Nigeria
--

@justgood, if u are nigerian u need to care, regardless of if u and ur family have moved out.

  @topic, I don't believe it will happen how they predicted eventhough they kept it broad and had alot of loops just incase their predictions are off. As for me, I really hope Nigeria comes to a conclusion as "real truth" put it, "in or before 2015 nigeria needs to come to a conclusion if they are going to break up or form a new nigeria which I call a greater Nigeria.
  Nigeria is an absolute mess at this moment in history in the beginning of a new mellinium and as a nation, needs to sit up and take gigantic steps in the right directions, not to soothe other nations but internally first. All those one small project and wait for praises mentality needs to stop. A nation of caliber like nigeria needs true self made breakthroughs.
 The idea of ghana and south africa matching on our soil and doing what they have to do to calm things down is something that should be averted at all cost because Africans can be very wicked and these nations with the help of northern africans will be the ones dividing Nigeria with their security in mind and it is common sense to create a situation you can handle when the chance warrants you to. So they might divide us in such a way that we cannot do each state will be a country and that is after they have demilitarized us  and made sure we never militarize again even worse than japan. I see them buying into that idea eventho they might have a little love for Nigeria, but at a time where they will cash in so much, I can't help but seeing them carry more plans than agreed with even the UN if a war happens in Nigeria.    Nigeria is not a nation like sierra leone and liberia, nations that will be involved in the peace keeping honestly or dishonetly, will need overwhelming force to stop the madness ensuing and I can't help but imagine what cameroun will do to the bakassi citizens and those in the southeast, the air raid from chad, niger, cameroun, and even gabon. Oh boy, naija should definately think twice about this war because the disunity from the next nigerian war will make the first war look like a timed paint ball pratice. Nations will have to come in and fight for their intrest however they see it whether small intrest o or big intrest, whether strong nation o or not so strong nation.  
 We should be careful what we ask for.  Make una use una head e yo, b4 we start to dey kill our self e yo.

When many ethnic groups are tired of being under the northern hegemony , i wonder who is going to fight  2nd civil war , people will just happily park up and go home. their war game or whatever it is called is useless. what they should be doing is to create rapport with the groups that have what they need before it is too late.

i bet this aint even gonna happen.

This is what we call-mind games. They are planing on instigating a war in 9ja. This aint gonna happen, though.

Trust Nigerians to read all sorts of meanings into this report. War games have always been with the US since the cold war…

So I’m with JustGood when he says:

JustGood:

Who cares?

this aint gonna happen.

what the fuc.k? the fucking US better leave Nigeria alone.
are they trying to instigate a war or something?

may God help Nigerians as a whole cos where Nigerian is going uhmmmmmmmmmm Only God knowsssss

Bawss1:

Trust Nigerians to read all sorts of meanings into this report. War games have always been with the US since the cold war…

So I’m with JustGood when he says:

You hit the nail on the head.
Just because the Ngerian scenario was used in a game?

for real, to be 100% honest, i DONT want nigeria to break up.
i love the cultural diversity.
some people hate it and LOVE tribalism.
I mean i love Nigeria the way it is.

I dont want nigeria to break up, but some people and things are getting out of hand.
please God!! save Nigeria
make it possible for all of us to stay ONE NIGERIA and exist with each other within the same borders.

i just wish the wealth of Nigeria could be shared with all the people.
there is no tribe to blame, but the people in office!!! they are causing all the misfortune for nigerians.

so tribalism has nothing to do with this.
we Nigerians need a REAL leader and a REAL government that actually does REAL things.
then maybe we ALL can be happy.  

All I can say is, if this war happens, it will affect all Africa. Nigeria is Huge and with alot of population.

If countries like Ghana try to contribute, our investments and top business men in Africa will surely do something not good. lets forget about America cus they always wants something for their interest as they said in that report about that they strongly depend on our resources.

I hope and doubt it wont create a massive problem in the whole of Africa.

Its just a Game scene ma people, anyone can always imagine that would happen considering the kind of activities going on, from MEND to Boko haram, e.t.c. We had it in the days of Ijaw-Itsekiri, Ife-Modakeke and they all settle when the time got right! So no matter how bright the "red-light" glows, no war is gonna happen. This is Naija! We will all choose peace the bone is hurt!

Niaja is heading for the rocks if things continue the way they are . we don't need america to tell us that

What really people should ask themselves is why the CIA is so interested in instigating Nigerians to break up. Could it be that if Nigeria remains together till 2015 we could become a regional competitor to them just like India and China?


In the 1980s it was the same USA that instigated India to go to war with China because China had concluded plans to colonize India. Well, the Indian government took the documents and cremated them. Did China invade India? No. Have China and India started competing with India for resources and markets all over the world today? Yes. Have China and India become more powerful? Yes. Are they rapidly moving to take over the position of the USA? Yes.

Now let's go to some stupid African people called the Eritreans.

Then, Ethiopia was the most powerful country in Africa. They challenged other continents for the rights of African Nations, they repelled colonization, they caused brain drain in other continents by attracting specialists from all over the world. They gave Africans all over the world hope and pride and belief in themselves.

So the CIA came to instigate war and disintegration. They called on different tribes to break up and provided support at the level of the United Nations for self determination. Finally, Eritrea broke off taking the entire coast of Ethiopia and making it landlocked. After decades of war and killings, are the Eritreans doing better today or worse? Are the Ethiopians doing better or worse? From first position in Africa, where are the both of them in the world stage today?


Third example is the state of Rhode Island in the USA which has been crying against marginalization and has been calling for separation from the Union for decades. The USA that supports self determination, why haven't they supported Rhode Island to leave their Union after all these years? Is the USA with Rhode Island in it not the number 1 country in the world today?

So you have to wonder. You really have to think what their plan is.

can some one just tell me how 9ja is going to become a world power or competitor to US with all the wickedness and injustice, + witchcraft+hatred+confusion+laxity+zero-truth-tolerance. . . + . . .+ you name it, that the nation drinks and breathes everyday. nex can you help us here, or you guys just dream one malaria dream and wake up to shout hail 9ja!!, is that how India and China got to where they are now?, pls answer me

nex:

What really people should ask themselves is why the CIA is so interested in instigating Nigerians to break up. Could it be that if Nigeria remains together till 2015 we could become a regional competitor to them just like India and China?
In the 1980s it was the same USA that instigated India to go to war with China because China had concluded plans to colonize India. Well, the Indian government took the documents and cremated them. Did China invade India? No. Have China and India started competing with India for resources and markets all over the world today? Yes. Have China and India become more powerful? Yes. Are they rapidly moving to take over the position of the USA? Yes.

Now let's go to some stupid African people called the Eritreans.

Then, Ethiopia was the most powerful country in Africa. They challenged other continents for the rights of African Nations, they repelled colonization, they caused brain drain in other continents by attracting specialists from all over the world. They gave Africans all over the world hope and pride and belief in themselves.

So the CIA came to instigate war and disintegration. They called on different tribes to break up and provided support at the level of the United Nations for self determination. Finally, Eritrea broke off taking the entire coast of Ethiopia and making it landlocked. After decades of war and killings, are the Eritreans doing better today or worse? Are the Ethiopians doing better or worse? From first position in Africa, where are the both of them in the world stage today?


Third example is the state of Rhode Island in the USA which has been crying against marginalization and has been calling for separation from the Union for decades. The USA that supports self determination, why haven't they supported Rhode Island to leave their Union after all these years? Is the USA with Rhode Island in it not the number 1 country in the world today?

So you have to wonder. You really have to think what their plan is.

I like your analysis but the bolded part is what iam not too sure about.

which country will I belong to , if there is a break up.

I am from the south somewhere, I have a wife from the 6 geo political zone, in the North, south west, south east, south south, delta etc.

Please advice me

vigasimple:

which country will I belong to , if there is a break up.

I am from the south somewhere, I have a wife from the 6 geo political zone, in the North, south west, south east, south south, delta etc.

Please advice me

you are a sick man, divorce all of them except for 1!
what is all this?
all this polygamy!

Nezan:

This is what we call-mind games. They are planing on instigating a war in 9ja. This aint gonna happen, though.

nex:

What really people should ask themselves is why the CIA is so interested in instigating Nigerians to break up. Could it be that if Nigeria remains together till 2015 we could become a regional competitor to them just like India and China?


In the 1980s it was the same USA that instigated India to go to war with China because China had concluded plans to colonize India. Well, the Indian government took the documents and cremated them. Did China invade India? No. Have China and India started competing with India for resources and markets all over the world today? Yes. Have China and India become more powerful? Yes. Are they rapidly moving to take over the position of the USA? Yes.

Now let's go to some stupid African people called the Eritreans.

Then, Ethiopia was the most powerful country in Africa. They challenged other continents for the rights of African Nations, they repelled colonization, they caused brain drain in other continents by attracting specialists from all over the world. They gave Africans all over the world hope and pride and belief in themselves.

So the CIA came to instigate war and disintegration. They called on different tribes to break up and provided support at the level of the United Nations for self determination. Finally, Eritrea broke off taking the entire coast of Ethiopia and making it landlocked. After decades of war and killings, are the Eritreans doing better today or worse? Are the Ethiopians doing better or worse? From first position in Africa, where are the both of them in the world stage today?


Third example is the state of Rhode Island in the USA which has been crying against marginalization and has been calling for separation from the Union for decades. The USA that supports self determination, why haven't they supported Rhode Island to leave their Union after all these years? Is the USA with Rhode Island in it not the number 1 country in the world today?

So you have to wonder. You really have to think what their plan is.

GBAM, you have both said it all and Nigerians whom are typical dodos are already falling for the trap that Nigeria will be better off seperated


Was this not the same AFRICOM who wanted to site something in Nigeria, but whose efforts were thwarted by Obasanjo or was it Yaradua, which was later diverted to Ghana or Sierra Leone or so ^{Gosh, my brain has gone foggy for now}  And now they are back with their real motive which is to secure Nigeria just because of its oil/oil reserves Dang, can't this puppet masters be less obvious


Heaven help us, oh God where is thy face

@@@@

na lie

nothin dey happen!!

even 2050 naija still dey bubble

but then constitution need a complete change for naija

not borrowed to suit the north? and   as it is

vigasimple:

which country will I belong to , if there is a break up.

I am from the south somewhere, I have a wife from the 6 geo political zone,  in the North, south west, south east, south south, delta etc.

Please advice me

Congrats your children will not have difficulty getting visa to travel out to the countries that will emanates from the zones you marry wife from and you will also become Citizen of those nations by marriage. E be like say I go imitate you oo.
@ Topic I say AMEN to the Break up.

Regardless of what the CIA says (and they are correct anyway), Nigeria is better off splitting up. If we want to avoid that, we better organise a national conference as priority.
The only thing holding Nigeria together is oil money. All our sences and abilities have been stunted to idiot levels by oil. It is sad that some here are talking about Nigeria becoming great in the future; if you build on sand, the building will crash - that is what is happening with Nigeria today. It is not too late to fix things, but sitting down and wringing our hands about some ill-advised sentiments will only worsen matters. It is better to build on logic, cooperation and compromise.
If we cannot hold a national conference to agree our co-existence like adults, then we had better brace for a crash landing and hope the pieces survive in decent enough shape.

I pray they will be disappointed. Nigeria will rise above her challenges and any clamour for war in this country will be met with resistance. Despite all our differences, we are peace-loving people. Afterall, we have gone through so much as a country(even more than what has ignited war in other countries), yet we still find a way to survive.

US, always pokenosing in other country's affairs!where were all these CIA agents and possible war prediction team on sept 11?common Osama they cannot caught.(catch).I no say a lot of our run away brodas dey always used mouth share naija instead of to follow plan seriously how to eliminate all these thieves we have as leaders.God dey sha and America no matter how hard they try cannot break naija.weda dey use mind,head,heart,leg,spiritual or even physical game.Na my opinion sha and it's my entitlement.

osbar67:

US, always pokenosing in other country's affairs!where were all these CIA agents and possible war prediction team on sept 11?common Osama they cannot caught.(catch).I no say a lot of our run away brodas dey always used mouth share naija instead of to follow plan seriously how to eliminate all these thieves we have as leaders.God dey sha and America no matter how hard they try cannot break naija.weda dey use mind,head,heart,leg,spiritual or even physical game.Na my opinion sha and it's my entitlement.

Good statement bro, I wish we all can come together and believe in ourselves like you said. We should also do it our way rather than this foreign interest.