@ Easimoni,
Thanks for your reply on Crusader. May I ask why you chose it above Unic and Law Union, and why you downgraded Mbenefits ( I heard something about Abbey something, ). Thanks,

Interesting thread guys, keep up the good work.

crazyT:

@ Pumping

So what you are saying in a nutshell is the time factor? But Flour Mills carry weight o 80 bucks!!! This means one needs to really consider the two i.e. the price and the time factor and chose the best alternative.

Well, with Bagco you don't make a dime until you get your certificates. In that time, I would have moved on from Flour Mills and hopefully with some good profit.

Pumping777,
I absolutely follow ur line of reasoning, but I make I re-quote wetin my homeboy Warren Buffet bin talk, " better buy an excellent company at a premium than a "not-so-excellent' one at N 72" . I think the main issue here is price, I am a man of small means and so I am looking to maximize my eggs instead of one huge ostrich. Nice one tho, i dont see you budging anytime soon and that's what makes the GREAT investor, do ur research and stick to it,
while I have ur attention, what's ur take on bank PHB , on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being "excellent purchase", how would u rate it or do u wanna wait for the prospectus?

pumping,
Taa-aa. Commot dia, U sell ya Flourmills, na lie, !! Crazy T no gree, Pumping has Flour mills logo spray painted on his car, that's how much he believes in it.

Rob-roy:

@ Easimoni,
Thanks for your reply on Crusader. May I ask why you chose it above Unic and Law Union, and why you downgraded Mbenefits ( I heard something about Abbey something, ). Thanks,

M Benefits did nothing wrong; Unic's interim results is too good to ignore. My ranking is based solely on forward PE.

pangolo

jehosaphat here is something to wrap your mind around, Culled from Bagco IPO prospectus. Look b4 u leap, this might be another Transcorp-like situation with potential court claims of N 0.5 bn and what not in addition to the loan of N 6bn already owed, careful sha

20. CLAIMS AND LITIGATION: In the ordinary course of its business, the Company is involved in eight ( cases and three (3) claims with total claim value of N650.4M. This is made up of a claim for N500M, another for N100M and the remaining ones are in the region of between N5M to N10M each. The claim for N500M is for a personal injury for which Bagco has insurance. The lawyers to the company are of the opinion that the level of compensation claimed is grossly excessive and if the claimant wins his case which is doubtful, the compensation will be lower than this sum. The second substantial claim of N100M is considered by the lawyers to be completely unfounded and without merit The remaining
cases are considered by the lawyers to be of no merit and /or the level of compensation will not be material. Bagco currently has two cases pending against other parties. The amounts involved are not considered to be significant.

pls am a polytechnic graduate and i need a job, HND in Quantity Surveying, my name is ALONGE BABAJIDE JOHN, 08033915633, Any1 can be of help ,

jehosaphat:

Pumping777,
I absolutely follow your line of reasoning, but I make I re-quote wetin my homeboy Warren Buffet bin talk, " better buy an excellent company at a premium than a "not-so-excellent' one at N 72" . I think the main issue here is price, I am a man of small means and so I am looking to maximize my eggs instead of one huge ostrich. Nice one tho, i don't see you budging anytime soon and that's what makes the GREAT investor, do your research and stick to it,
while I have your attention, what's your take on bank PHB , on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being "excellent purchase", how would u rate it or do u want to wait for the prospectus?

Yes o. I want to see baba prospectus. On the other hand based on what I know now, I don't think one can go wrong with this PO. A rating of at least 3 will fit the bill.

easimoni:

M Benefits did nothing wrong; Unic's interim results is too good to ignore. My ranking is based solely on forward PE.

I still have not lost my bad habit of having too many stocks in my portfolio so I piled up UNIC when it dropped to 2.40 last week. It was never one of my target insurance stocks because I've always thought there is some house cleaning required at UNIC. My thought is to bolt by today. Anyone with jist on UNIC? Are there any real concerns in terms of the management??

easimoni:

M Benefits did nothing wrong; Unic's interim results is too good to ignore. My ranking is based solely on forward PE.

I beg read this ----->http://businessdayonline.com/National/991.html and what say thou?

@pumping777

The projected PAT of N8B for WEMA by nigeriansecurities.com is not actually a downgrade its a conservative projection personally  on an annualised basis i put them down for a PAT ~N10B for the full year

The forward PE is 15.62 and EPS=0.79 and compared with the sector average PE ratio of 25.56  i put the fair value of the stock at around N20

So going forward if the PO comes out around N8(doubt it very much!) and it goes on TS between now and next week let's just say i have hit GOLD_{trying to compose myself} and easimoni has hit DIAMOND!

And i dare say this if it goes on TS you will struggle to buy on the floor and what do you think will happen when it comes off TS and you already have the stock just before they start releasing the certs? Well your guess is as good as mine

@jehoshaphat

I beg you too much if nothing else at least for your parables  you are the real McCoy. Keep it coming and may the fountain of your wisdom not run dry!

I think you asked the question about Mbenefits and Abbey Mortgage. Mbenefits is taking up an equity stake of 20%(and some other offshore investors lined up) and Abbey Mortgage will be listed on the NSE this month. It did a private placement when it raised about N1B and they are also planning to come to the market for their IPO where they hope to increase their share capital to N20B

All this stuff is already somewhere buried in one of my earlier posts but for you sha i don't mind rehashing it

Your parables are awesome!

Wanaj0,

What do you have to say as per Afribank PO?.

Peace.

Dunlop is set for a turn around. At below 3.00 (2.50), is a good price to enter. I expect them to declare a loss of full year 2007 but enter to profit hence forth. By then they should have paid back and restructure the balance of loan used to finance the new radial tyre plant.

UNIC, cleaned its books some two years ago. Owned mainaly by ernest Shonekan. Don't think they have any management problem. To concentrate on life insurance. They planned spinning off their non-life insurance. Major player in health insurance. Also involved in Critical Rescue. Building a club at VGC. I think they are well positioned.

BAGCO, waiting for the prospectus. But I am in love with the company. As per the litigation, nothing special based on the opinions of their lawyers. Good thing that it was disclosed. When I see the prospectus, will be able to say whether it s BUY.

Don't buy Union Bank. This is the time to sell. UBN is a sleeping giant that may eventually die if care is not taken! Union is one of the WORST bank out there. WHy anyone will buy Union Bnak is beyond me!

For me, DIAMOND is the gem. Just watching it closely. Bought at 5.50 Nov 2006. Sold at 20.20 in May 2007. Buying again now at 17.50. I expect it to be in the 25.00 - 30.00 range by June next year at the least. Anyone intesreted in joining me

On WEMA, if you are in by the technical suspension is placed, then you will wait for a long time. They will have to issue a lot of shares to be able to compete. Nothing less than 5bn shares which is still small!!!! Don't expect the rally after the lifting of technical suspension. Check out what happened to Access bank. Note also that money from the PO will likely not add to the March 2008 FY result. So, to me, not an option. Bought at 3.50 at the begining of the year so I can say THANK YOU LORD!!!!!!!

Capital oil is a small company that has cornered the petroleum distribution in the south eastern part of teh country. Unlike Lagos where teh major marketers hold sway, the independent marketers are in control in other places especially the south eastern part. Did not get teh stock to buy at 48k some months ago. Not a stock to hold on for long. But based on activity on the ground, they are doing well.

tonyjon:

Wanaj0,

What do you have to say as per Afribank PO?.

Peace.

Afribank? Not interested. For banks, na Diamond me dey load now!!!! Can't afford to over diversify my portfolio. No be all good thing man go dey buy.

wanaj0:


On WEMA, if you are in by the technical suspension is placed, then you will wait for a long time. They will have to issue a lot of shares to be able to compete. Nothing less than 5bn shares which is still small!!!! Don't expect the rally after the lifting of technical suspension. Check out what happened to Access bank. Note also that money from the PO will likely not add to the March 2008 FY result. So, to me, not an option.

The po buyers will most likely not partake of march 2008 earnings which suggests better things for current holders.
At that rate, wema could come up with a PAT very similar to diamond's.
To me, def an option. Its the cheapest bank out there currently.

@ Wanajo

Wanajo Baba, I beg I be small investor o but if you get 1000 units of Union Bank would you sell to buy Crusader and Unic? I bought at IPO at N20
and e don double at current price of N41.

I no get power to follow you go DIAMOND but I wan enter insurance coys well. I got 5k of Crusader last friday, my target na 50k units.

Abeg advice dis small pikin o!

wanaj0:

Dunlop is set for a turn around. At below 3.00 (2.50), is a good price to enter. I expect them to declare a loss of full year 2007 but enter to profit hence forth. By then they should have paid back and restructure the balance of loan used to finance the new radial tyre plant.

UNIC, cleaned its books some two years ago. Owned mainaly by ernest Shonekan. Don't think they have any management problem. To concentrate on life insurance. They planned spinning off their non-life insurance. Major player in health insurance. Also involved in Critical Rescue. Building a club at VGC. I think they are well positioned.

BAGCO, waiting for the prospectus. But I am in love with the company. As per the litigation, nothing special based on the opinions of their lawyers. Good thing that it was disclosed. When I see the prospectus, will be able to say whether it s BUY.

Don't buy Union Bank. This is the time to sell. UBN is a sleeping giant that may eventually die if care is not taken! Union is one of the WORST bank out there. WHy anyone will buy Union Bnak is beyond me!

For me, DIAMOND is the gem. Just watching it closely. Bought at 5.50 Nov 2006. Sold at 20.20 in May 2007. Buying again now at 17.50. I expect it to be in the 25.00 - 30.00 range by June next year at the least. Anyone intesreted in joining me

On WEMA, if you are in by the technical suspension is placed, then you will wait for a long time. They will have to issue a lot of shares to be able to compete. Nothing less than 5bn shares which is still small!!!! Don't expect the rally after the lifting of technical suspension. Check out what happened to Access bank. Note also that money from the PO will likely not add to the March 2008 FY result. So, to me, not an option. Bought at 3.50 at the begining of the year so I can say THANK YOU LORD!!!!!!!

Capital oil is a small company that has cornered the petroleum distribution in the south eastern part of the country. Unlike Lagos where the major marketers hold sway, the independent marketers are in control in other places especially the south eastern part. Did not get the stock to buy at 48k some months ago. Not a stock to hold on for long. But based on activity on the ground, they are doing well.

To say Union bank is underperforming would be an understatement as disappointing as it is i bought the stock <N20 in 05 and i think its now N42 so i think its run its course i would take the dividends and the bonus issue and offload kia kia(thank you very much!) i think its a bit far fetched to suggest that Union bank will be goobled up by another bank don't forget that regardless of what anybody may say Union is one of the most capitalized banks on the NSE unless you are talking of a foreign take-over and you can bet CBN hasnt got the stomach for that now. So the Union bank brand will be with us for a long time to come

If you still have WEMA by the time they go on TS no problems as i'm writing WEMA opened at N12.27 so i'm expecting the usual 5% upside and close in the N12.88 territory. I have not factored  in the proceeds from the PO(because nobody knows what it is) into the FY 2008 results no need because i  think they would have finalized their full year results before they start thinking of what to do with the proceeds from the PO that is yet to see the light of day.

I expect a PAT of N10B by YEnd and even at conservative N8B PAT that  gives me a forward  PE of 15.62 compare that with the sectoral average of 25.56(nigeriansecurities.com) and i arrive at a fair value of at least N20
You can sell now if you have WEMA and i believe their would be a post-suspension bull run why? by the time they finish the allotment for the PO they would have released the full-year results we expect  and that will only send the price in one direction

They would have crystallised  their intention in the prospectus for the PO and hopefully if they make the right noises that can only add an upside to the stock. Frankly i don't think there is any basis for comparing ACCESS with WEMA. the share price was for ACCESS was jerked up because they did a share reconstruction the share price for WEMA is moving up because of their performance and the efforts they have made to 'clean' their books and don't forget that any monies realised from the present debt recovery  strategy will go towards the bottomline and if i'm correct they have recovered about N6B already so there is no reason to doubt the continued success of this hard-ball strategy they have decided to adopt.

In summing up i believe  there is both intrisic and extrinsic value in WEMA either way if you sell now or hold on for the post-suspension bull run it's a win-win situation
I bought the stock less than N6 so i will offload some between now and next week and the rest after the PO and i'm using the proceeds to buy into the PO so i cannot complain

I will put Diamond up there with bank PHB there's not much to choose between them this is actually creating some sort of dilemma for me but i suppose the prospectus will sort that out

@Easimoni

Abeg Easimoni pls respond to my mail above too o! U are the insurance headmaster!

Other Gurus pls contribute

thanks all

Japaul Oil Plc  released their financial results on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange today.


Japaul Oil Plc                     Turnover              PBT            TAX                 PAT
                                        =N='000        =N='000        =N='000         =N='000
30-Sep-07       9 Mths      1,793,000        370,460        52,892          317,568  
30-Sep-06       9 Mths        621,210        131,699        32,924            98,775  
                                       
                                         188.6%           181.3%                              221.5%

Temmie10:

The po buyers will most likely not partake of march 2008 earnings which suggests better things for current holders.
At that rate, wema could come up with a PAT very similar to diamond's.
To me, def an option. Its the cheapest bank out there currently.

Looks like you are reading my mind pls see my post.

Japaul's result was very good.
They are on course to meet their projections easily at this rate.

@ Roughcut
Wema bank's turnover for this current year will be close to 40 billion naira (even without po).
People underestimate the potential of this bank.

hi everyone, respects to all the gurus in the hse,shigidi, roughcut, easimoni,gees, temmie et al, u guys av been doing a great job
can anyone give a light into the supposed merger of sterling and ecobank, what effects will it have on their share value.
i av some sterling shares, just to know what to do now that they av been placed on technical suspension

Temmie10:

Japaul's result was very good.
They are on course to meet their projections easily at this rate.

@ Roughcut
Wema bank's turnover for this current year will be close to 40 billion naira (even without po).
People underestimate the potential of this bank.

There is serious potential there! This is a winning horse so i'm expecting this one to clean up

Oando Q3 Result Out!

Does anyone know where I can print out the BAGCO Share forms online ? I thought Cashcraft would have it on their site by now.



Thanks


(Bagco,Crusader Ins. & Diamond Bank, here I come)

EASIMONI WANAJO PUMPING777 TAMMIE 10 AND OTHERS

PLZ I'M STILL WAITING FOR RESPONSES TO MY QUESTIONS ABOVE O ABEG O
MAKE UNA NO TALK SAY NA SMALL MONEY I DEY TALK ABOUT O (cheap blacmail )

Everyday we go off to work trying to make a better life for ourselves  and families (i.e. if you are married).
As commendable as that is, it would mean virtually nothing at all if we are not ACTIVELY planning our latter years along the way.
We must not just work to keep up appearances of wealth but create a legacy of real wealth that will carry us through our later years.

A lot of us probably invest in shares and stocks; but have we thought about real estate- really owning a genuine piece of property with the option of mortgage to build it at rates as low as 6%?

Guess it sounds too far-fetched. Well not anymore! In the fifth estate my company is selling at Ofada- a pivotal location of the on-going Lagos/Ogun Megacity project, i offer you an opportunity to become a land-owner first and a building owner after you have finished paying for your land; perhaps through the option of mortgage or pay-as-you-go building pattern.

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Call any of the numbers below or simpy send a reply- I'm simply asking that you join countless bankers, MTN staff, Glo and Celtel staff including civil servants who can boast of owning real estate in either Golden Heritage, Prime Estate phase 1 and/or Wisdom Estate, Ibafo.

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wanaj0:


On WEMA, if you are in by the technical suspension is placed, then you will wait for a long time. They will have to issue a lot of shares to be able to compete. Nothing less than 5bn shares which is still small!!!! Don't expect the rally after the lifting of technical suspension. Check out what happened to Access bank. Note also that money from the PO will likely not add to the March 2008 FY result. So, to me, not an option. Bought at 3.50 at the begining of the year so I can say THANK YOU LORD!!!!!!!

RoughCut:

If you still have WEMA by the time they go on TS no problems as i'm writing WEMA opened at N12.27 so i'm expecting the usual 5% upside and close in the N12.88 territory. I have not factored  in the proceeds from the PO(because nobody knows what it is) into the FY 2008 results no need because i  think they would have finalized their full year results before they start thinking of what to do with the proceeds from the PO that is yet to see the light of day.

I expect a PAT of N10B by YEnd and even at conservative N8B PAT that  gives me a forward  PE of 15.62 compare that with the sectoral average of 25.56(nigeriansecurities.com) and i arrive at a fair value of at least N20
You can sell now if you have WEMA and i believe their would be a post-suspension bull run why? by the time they finish the allotment for the PO they would have released the full-year results we expect  and that will only send the price in one direction

They would have crystallised  their intention in the prospectus for the PO and hopefully if they make the right noises that can only add an upside to the stock. Frankly i don't think there is any basis for comparing ACCESS with WEMA. the share price was for ACCESS was jerked up because they did a share reconstruction the share price for WEMA is moving up because of their performance and the efforts they have made to 'clean' their books and don't forget that any monies realised from the present debt recovery  strategy will go towards the bottomline and if i'm correct they have recovered about N6B already so there is no reason to doubt the continued success of this hard-ball strategy they have decided to adopt.

In summing up i believe  there is both intrisic and extrinsic value in WEMA either way if you sell now or hold on for the post-suspension bull run it's a win-win situation

Two contrasting views!! Beautiful arguments both sides!! No right or wrong answer!! To my other fellow investors (esp those with 'which stock to pick' requests), always do your own research as well so as to have the confidence, optimism and the 'no shaking' mentality to fanatically support whatever your perspective is or whatever you believe the future for any stock holds.

The beauty and dynamism of our stock market allows for contrasting views - one moment you are right, the next moment you are wrong. Remember WEMA last week with such comments (within a spate of one week) as 'Thank God I didn't buy WEMA'; 'I'm glad I sold WEMA fast'; I'm thrilled I'm still holding on to WEMA' etc

Just make sure your right moments are tremendously more than your wrong moments!!! Happy and safe investing!!!

Rought cut, I hear you on WEMA but you need to cover your back.

Check out WEMA's Q1 result last year and what the FULL year result finally ended with. So factor in 'surprises' into your calaculation.

WEMA is not expanding. They are not opening branches. They are not competitive. So even though there are upside (rebranding, clean books etc) don't ignore the downside also.

Though we all talked about cleaning of the books, we don't know how bad it is until you see the FULL ANNUAL REPORT. Same thing was said in the FY 2005!!!!! You don't even know whether the auditors qualified their accounts. Since they are yet to apy dividend they may still have goodwill in their books. Right now, WEMA cannot set the goodwill against its reserve or else it will have less than N25bn shareholders fund. It has to be set against profit.

As per the PO, I am not that optimistic about WEMA PO. WEMA still got a lot of work to do to start to march on again! They need to expand. The ODUA clout is no longer there. The arena is getting more competitive so they have their work cut out for them.

On UNION bank, just forget them. Old bank managed by old people with old ideas! That is a stock that has a SELL written all over it. ACCESS tried taking them over. It is only that they are not that attractive.

Diamond is looking quite lovely to me. Will continue to watch them. ACTIS fund should do them some good.

I am loving FCMB also. With the many institutional shareholders (foreign) I expect to see an improvement in their corporate gorvernance. I know people talked about the N12b for CSL acquisition. The N12bn is for acquisition and further CAPITALISATION of CSL. It is not only for acquisition. Remember that there is an increase in capitalisation requirement of stockbroking firms. Of course, SUBOMI will make money from the deal.

Except WEMA is waiting to be acquired, they will have to raise N100b to their current N25bn shareholders fund. That will require them issuing 10bn share.

For me, thanks to WEMA. See them some other time. Let me look for the next golden hen. WEMA has tried.

@wanaj0
Yeah i have done that quite alright that's why i will be offloading some of my holdings and if needs be some more by the time the TS is lifted

FCMB to me have not  made a good investment as far as acquiring CSL stockbrokers is concerned we know why they have splashed out big time  by the way. If they wanted to satisfy the regulatory requirements they only need to capitalize CSL to the tune N1B and not 12B(if CSL has not already attained the requisite capital base) 

If  you havent read my post regarding this investment i have kindly rehashed it for you so you know why i think its not a good move

From the report i read FCMB is shelling out $100M(N12.5B) to acquire and capitalize CSL(they only need to capitalize it to the tune of N1B) and a little bit more for working capital. This is a company that is projected to generate $13.5M(N1.6B) in 2010 representing a paltry 5% of the attributable income to the FCMB group. The question i ask is why are you spending N12.5B for a company that is expected to contribute only 5% to the bottomline in two years' time?

The net worth of CSL is estimated at $2.2M(N275M) and correct me if i'm wrong net worth is the difference between assets and current+long-term  libilities(sorry i'm not an accountant) and the annualized PAT for 2007  is estimated at $7.4M(N925M) so if they are projecting an income of  N1.6B in 2010 in effect they expect to grow earnings by only 700M in the intervening 2 years

For a company that is going to generate N1.6B in 2010 spending N12.5B that is about 17% of the amount they are raking in from the PO  in 2007 does not sit with me as a good investment and  of course this is not in the prospectus. Looks like they got their priorities wrong there

Union bank is almost a waste of space for a bank of their size and Diamond is good  and so also is  bank PHB i think i have found a replacement for FCMB in those 2 banks (i'm becoming fatigued by these banks IPO/PO's)
I think we are singing from the same hymn book as per looking for the next golden hen or is it the goose?

@All

I'm already  on the prowl for the next big thing for 2008 so please let me/us know if there is anything out there yet to be unmasked