I think mbenefit is short term with all wendy has told us.Thats just my opinion

does anyone knows whats going on with zenith. have they shared their dividends cause i haven't received anything.

adewaleafolabi:

does anyone knows whats going on with zenith. have they shared their dividends cause i haven't received anything.

Their year end is 30th JUne 2007and they do not give interim dividend so there is no way they could have shared anything. Expect the results around July/August. and dividends thereafter.

i wonder hw dangote would end this week,
i would rough it out and see where it stays by the end of the year

any news on the price of the access offer

@frank
Can I get your contact, a phone number will be excellent.
Thanks

Talktrue:

@frank
Can I get your contact, a phone number will be excellent.
Thanks

Call me on 018983359, 08038421775

Omoba3:

@ Windywendy - Your knowledge of stock is quite deep. I am really impressed.

Thanks!!

Omoba3:


From what I've read, Jos Breweries are in serious trouble, despite a core investor coming in. I'm sure the investor went in with eyes wide open, and can hopefully turn things around.

So you're sure a core investor is coming in? Do you have any idea who they are? Can't seem to find any info. I've called the company a few times and got no response. Anyone has any info? Just checking

cheexy:

@windywendy,
I enjoyed reading your post. I am reading a book called "Beating the Streets" by Peter Lynch and i read about convertible bonds. I also bought mutual benefits assurance stock and i have not regretted it. However, i didn't know that the convertible bond thing worked in Nigeria.

Thanks Cheexy. Aparently, they're not marketing the convertible bonds in nigeria (I think) because the price is quoted in USD. I'll find the link and post it soon.

Btw, "beating the streets" is a really good book. I've read it too.

Talktrue:

@wendy
Could you comment more on the Mbenefit bond - what is the offer price for the bonds? What is the earlist conversion date? Is there a callable-option attached to the bond (ie 2011)? What is the ratio of conversion from bond to equity? What is the coupon payment of the bond? Is the coupon paid annually or semi-annually? Whats the minimum amount one can purchase.

Here's the link to the convertible bond offer -- the only one thing I couldn't figure out is when it is ending or when it began. But since Mbenefit was named stock of the month (4/2007) by these guys (african captl mkts), I'm guessing the offer is recent . . . Other than that, the information in the link should answer all of your questions.

http://africancapitalmarkets.com/page.php?id=104

SavvyLanre:

@Everyone
All hail Guru Windywendy, i definitely think your credibility in this house,  is on the same level as Oga Frank. (I have been following your other entries)
@WindyWendy
Back to Mbenefit -
I also noticed the last two weeks activity of Mbenefit,  the trend has been upwards,  but could not find any good information.
Please, what is your take on Short-term and Long-term,
And, please where can i find more information.

Thanks Savvylanre! Please see my immediate response above for the link on the Mbenefit info. As per my take on short term vs. longterm, I think (and this is purely personal opinion) that any company that is undertaking a convertible bond or irredemable convertible preferred stock offer (just like standard alliance insurance) is definitely a short term thing, because this means there's a significant potential for dilution of future earnings, unless of course the future earnings will rise sufficiently to minimize the effect of the dilution (in which case I might go long term). As for Mbenefit, I'm not convinced that their earnings will rise enough to absorb the effect of any dilution in future, because given the nature of the insurance business (esp. non-life), premiums are difficult to collect and since insurance is not compulsory, there's a limit to how much premiums a company can charge (especially when there's stiff competition). I'm not sure how closely you've looked at such companies' financial statements, but if you do, you'll see that most insurance companies (esp. those in the non-life business) have a high percentage of receivables to gross premiums. Mbenefit has a relative high percentage, and for the last three or so years, their operating cashflows have been negative, signifying that their business hasn't been generating any cash (so most of the profit doesn't translate into actual cash that the company can use). This could probably change with the injection of new funds, but then, that's anyone's guess. I'm especially not comfortable that they are not diversifying their revenue streams (unlike a company like cornerstone that's establishing PFA's, going into real estate, etc). I also have a host of other issues with Mbenefit that just makes me take a short term view. The most significant one is the fact that the MD owns like 70% of the company both directly and indirectly (through his wife and other companies that he set up). During the last IPO, he transferred a significant portion of the shares to himself by "depositing" almost about N900m in the company. Now the problem I have with that deposit is that it came in form of real estate he had purchased through another company that he set up and NOT in form of cash!!! For a company with negative cash from operations, and that has had to go out and borrow from banks at a high cost, that's just not a cool thing to do. Besides, there's no guarantee that the value of the real estate is indeed N900k or that it even generates any money, etc. That deal just makes me a tinny bit uncomfortable.

In all though, the company is relatively OK and I believe it can do well short term with all of the injection of capital and with the access to new markets that they've recently got. I'll wait and see how they do this year and then decide on whether or not to go long term.

Meanwhile, does anyone have any info on Firstinland bank?

@windywendy,

thats some deep analysis,
been following ur posts 4 a while,
seem to worth ur salt,

1.so whats ur take on dangote again i ask, i want to rough it out-- is it advisable, kind of panicking cos each naira depreciation costs a lot to me.

2. can u rcommend any short term stock to buy, so at least to balance the dangote thingy,

thanks a bunch

@windywendy,
Don't have much info on first inland bank. I know that a total 152,370,815 units were traded last week. It recorded the second highest volume for the week, second only to FCMB PLC. It closed at 7.23 with 4,818,350 units traded today alone. It has been appreciated by 25.73% last week. I don't have ready info on the latest earnings or any planned dividend payout, but will get back to you on it.
@everyone,
What is your verdict on first inland bank.

hello cheexy,

whats in stockwatch this month?

some good post u have

With the trendy invasion of foreign banks investing in Nigerian partners First Inland Bank looks ripe as a bride for foreign partnership or injection of foreign investment and foreign equity ownership. Based on speculative investment I would buy and hold First Inland Bank now at its present price and wait and see what happens before the year ending

Londoncool.

why do you think First Inland Bank what about other banks, I also have a feeling foreign investors will be coming in soon but i want to invest just before they come. wish i was a psychic 

Does anyone know the people interested in jos brewery.

Tmoni, I would slipt half or thereabouts from dangote preferably before it hits N37-p.s im a learner

@Timoni,
In Stockswatch this week,
LASACO emerged stock of the week, gaining 27% even though National salt led the price gainers. This is due to the superior volume of trades.

EFCC freezes accounts of Nospecto, Flagship Asset Managers, Treasureline, Wealthzone, Wealth Solution and Green minds over illegal business transactions

Stocks to watch are UBA, Oceanic, University press, Crusader, NAHCO, Afribank Mutual Benefits, Nigerian German Chemical, etc but it all depends on whether you are a Short term, Long term or Medium terminvestor

UBA controls 15% market share says GCR (Global Credit Rating)

FBN gets NSE approval to raise N100 billion naira

UAC-PROP's stock nosedives amid investor dissatisfaction

Nestle promises strong organic growth in 2007

Operators express mixed reactions over market performance after 2007 polls

Unilever set to recover-operators

International Brewries to raise N870 million through a public offer of 1 billion shares at 87 kobo per share (people are of the opinion that the public offer is not enough to raise the necessary funds as the brewery business is very capital intensive. Its profit has been dwindling lately. In December 2006, it disclosed a turn over of N313.04 million as against 401.4 million in 2005. Loss before tax reduced to N361 million from N523.7 million in 2005

There is the market update and many more articles, These are just some of the highlights.

Dis Guy:

Londoncool.

why do you think First Inland Bank what about other banks, I also have a feeling foreign investors will be coming in soon but i want to invest just before they come. wish i was a psychic 

Does anyone know the people interested in jos brewery.

Tmoni, I would slipt half or thereabouts from dangote preferably before it hits N37-p.s im a learner

Amongst the Banks stocks that are trading under N10 it has the soundest fundamentals (balance sheet/management/future earnings per share); and may most likely hit the N10 barrier soon (using the Japanese candlestick comparative chart analysis to plot the coefficients of First Inland Bank,Wema Bank,Skye Bank and Fidelity Bank.)

Thank you

_{Japanese wetin  , see all of you dey dribble us with these city boy slangs, shio im expecting some books from amazon i will catch up sha hopefully}
can someone tell stockwatch to get online it's 2007!! 

Anyone with link to this Stockwatch thing ?

@dis guy, thats a fair enough plan,

i just hv this feeling it might hit N60 by the end of the year to early nxt year,


my brother, i dey google this japanesee thingy and na story i dey get,

thanks cheexy, thats one of the prices we pay for being out of the country,


can't wait to finish this school sef and get into the heat of things myself by myself

@wendy
Thanks for the link to mutual benefit, the Bond offer is over though.

@all

What's your take on Linkage assurance, I could only get their report upto 2004 and to make any informed decision 2006 data is most important for the market. If u get the 2005, 2006 acct details please feel free to share. Any other info u can share about linkage will be appreciated.

The little I got from the company they are like PDP (share the money), they jsut share the profit, but I hope with the recent trend they will try to grow, if anyone has any useful info or link once again feel free to share.

The sector to watch out for next is Manufacturing ie if there is any change from NEPA, favourite stock for me include, Unilever, unilever, unilever

Why is Ecobank droping, their PE is high but their result for Q1 was good, what are the forces driving that.

For long term players Nestle looks good with their bonus and dividend the PE will be 20thish and for a blue chip company thats good.

@Tmoni
Candle stick chart is a good tool for analysis, I can tell u though that the current market in Nigeria has not followed a technical trend so reliance on such chart wont get u much besides don't ever rely wholly on one tool for analysis. U can get so much info about different tools for analysis on the net, take your time to study them, makin money aint easy bro.

@all
Please please if you must go into HYIP please use only what you can afford to lose I'm saying this here because I've been to some of the HYIP threads and I've seen guys on this post there. people sell properties to participate and when there is a problem they get heart attack, Why do u think its called high risk. If u win all the time whats the risk in it. if those guys make all those money what do they need your peanuts for? they can go to the bank borrow money make excess profit pay back the bank and still be in business. Well I doubt if any guy that worked hard for his money will fall victim to that but U never know, people are so greedy

Tmoni:

@windywendy,

thats some deep analysis,
been following your posts 4 a while,
seem to worth your salt,

1.so whats your take on dangote again i ask, i want to rough it out-- is it advisable, kind of panicking because each naira depreciation costs a lot to me.

I'll hold to Dangote because I think it's a good company with solid fundamentals. They're beginning exports next year and this will definitely have a positive impact on their revenues. Since they've proven to be good at managing their costs, a significant part of the positive impact should reflect in their bottomline and dividend payment, and this should shore up the share price significantly. The current sell off is something that I believe is temporary. So unless I see any other more profitable opportunity, I'll still hold on to it. Below is someone's view from Proshare:

Q: I recently received a question from a reader regarding the shares of Dangote. The reader's question is as follows: "Please advise on DANGSUGAR. I logged in @46 and it appears to be on the spiral

[b]Response:

Reviewing the charts, it appears people are taking profit. Since attaining a 52 week high of N56 on April 19, 2007, the stock has had four (4) consecutive days of losses.

The trading volume was 12 million yesterday (April 24, 2007) and 6.8 million today.

The fundamentals of the company has not changed. Therefore I will not be very worried. However, it appears that there are a lot of sellers in the stock for now, but the volume is declining – a good sign.

To illustrate, the stock opened at N47.68, and closed at the same price today. The current price is about N2.50 below yesterday's close.

The loss is equivalent to the maximum allowed daily loss by NSE. I need to see the stock open up, test a low of the day, and snap back to close at a higher price, before I will be convinced that the selling has stopped in the short term.

However, on a long-term, the stock will likely trade above N60, but it will have to breach all the over head resistances it has created with this decline.

CSL Alert: Friday April 27, 2007

Dangote Sugar’s share price continued its slide as it fell 5% and closed on offer.  However, we believe this will soon bottom out, and it will become attractive to investors again, particularly those with long term horizon[/b]

Talktrue:


The sector to watch out for next is Manufacturing ie if there is any change from NEPA, favourite stock for me include, Unilever, unilever, unilever

Errr, can you tell us why unilever? I've been researching that company for a while and it seems they're in so much trouble that they can't really get out of without a drastic restructuring. Their market share is being eroded on all sides by companies like PZ (which by the way, invested heavily in expanding their production capacity and distribution networks and also partnered with some investors from China to branch out into cooling products -- haier, etc) and P&G. I'm not seeing any moves on the part of Unilever to regain or at least retain their market share, and yet their costs are not particularly under control.

So what's it about Unilever that you like? Pls share. I'll love to buy into it too if there's anything interesting on the horizon

@ cheexy:

Thanks for the info from stock watch.

Did they say why Afribank is a stock to watch? My broker (FSDH) is also bullish on that too. I bought it sometime back and i'm about to offload. I hear they're coming out with a public offer soon and that a core investor (a Nigerian individual) has acquired the controversial NSITF shares. Other than that, I haven't heard anything else. I'm wondering if I should just sell off or wait . .  .

Dear all ,

really appreciate all contributions.

@windy wendy,

thanx 4 ur in depth analysis in ur posts. i will like to speak with u.I will be grateful if u can mail me @ baggio1800@yahoo.com

Have a nice week!

Both Zenith and Cashcraft ask for Utility Bill, what about Nigerians resident abroad.

I have heard it is better to use a Nigerian addresss because of posting of share certificates e.t.c



So what other document can one provide as substitute for the bill

barge:

@windy wendy,

thanx 4 your in depth analysis in your posts. i will like to speak with u.I will be grateful if u can mail me @ baggio1800@yahoo.com

Have a nice week!

why not mail me at windywendy121@hotmail.com with any questions you might have?

@ Windywendy - Check out the news in the Vanguard re: Unilever:

http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/business/april07/30042007/b230042007.html

Unilever returns to profitability first quarter

The restructuring exercise in Unilever Nigeria Plc has started paying off as the company returns to profitability in the first quarter 2007.

@ Dollyp1 - A utility bill from your current residence is acceptable. If you buy shares through a stockbroker from the secondary market, you won't get share certs, you get a CSCS account to which your share holdings are electronically lodged. As for IPO's, unless the option of crediting your CSCS account with your holdings is not available, you can use a trusted persons address (in care of).

Alternatively, get your stockbroker to buy on your behalf.

@ Dollyp1 - Both Zenith and Cashcraft ask for Utility Bill, what about Nigerians resident abroad.

I have heard it is better to use a Nigerian addresss because of posting of share certificates e.t.c

@ Windywendy - This is what BusinessDay says about the Jos Breweries investor:

BusinessDay
Major Equity Swap At JIB
17 April 2007

A major divestment in Jos International Breweries Plc, yesterday may chart a new course for the shares in the coming weeks.

Stockbrokers said the cross deals where 200 million shares were transfered to new investors, has put the company in focus again.

The Brewer of Rock Larger beer among other brands has not declared dividends in a long time now. Specifically, the market capitalization of shares which were traded yesterday at N2.94 was N588 million.

The highest price during the year has been N3.26. The new investor(s) may turn out to be a booster to the company, which currently carry zero price earning ratio and earnings per share.

Earlier in March 2007, the Nigerian Stock Exchange allowed a supplementary offer of the brewery company listed. The supplementary offer of 303,500,000 shares was listed.

Is it possible to buy the stocks/shares directly from  the company without going through a stock broker?. Please fellows advise. If it is how do we go about it?.

Thank fellows.

you can go directly to the issuing house(s) in most case or the bank during IPOs (i.e if the bank is offering its own shares)