ololufemi:

@ Roughcut,

Did the calculation and found out that the 10 day CSMA is higher than the 20 day and 50 day CSMA exponentially. Also, the price is lower than the 10 day CSMA but higher than the 50 day CSMA. All calculations were done exponentially.

I think it sounds good

Thanks

Yep that means the trend for the 10-Day CSMA is set to persist or continue and therefore therefore in the short-term the price will trend higher

If you evaluate the formula MACD/CSMA = 10-Day MACD/CSMA minus 50-Day MACD/CSMA  it should be positive which validates the hypothesis  earlier

wanaj0:

Just last year!!!!!!!! Not too long ago.

PFA money distorted the market. With everyone buying anything! Just heard now that International Breweries was over subscribed and there will be return money!!!!

There will definitely be correction soon!

Classic case of irrational exuberance to borrow Alan Greenspan's phrase it is asign that the market is in an overbought position and a 'correction' will definitely take place to restore some sort of equilibrium meaning those who have bought must definitely sell to realise profits and that is when i think the discerning investor should open a position or positions

CSMA,MACD etc.Come on,this is not a CIS or CFA class.Please educate someone here on what these terms mean.there are rookies here please.

damoche07:

CSMA,MACD etc.Come on,this is not a CIS or CFA class.Please educate someone here on what these terms mean.there are rookies here please.

No cause for alarm i will do a nice little tutorial on these jargons and upload it to emaachile's upload website for all

RoughCut:

No cause for alarm i will do a nice little tutorial on these jargons and upload it to emaachile's upload website for all

Thank u jere,Diamond.

RoughCut:

Classic case of irrational exuberance to borrow Alan Greenspan's phrase it is asign that the market is in an overbought position and a 'correction' will definitely take place to restore some sort of equilibrium meaning those who have bought must definitely sell to realise profits and that is when i think the discerning investor should open a position or positions

Not sure I understand what you are saying here!

hmmmm

pinokio:

hmmmm

what? speak up, say something we can understand _{apart from "hmmmm" of course} 

@Wanaj0, I quite understand your view point. A correction is in order, but you'ld still see higher PE's before that happens, especially with all the PFA funds and other PE and hedge funds coming into the market. As long as there are no comparable alternative outlets for investing these funds, they'lll find their way into the stock market. And you and I know what happens when you have too much money chasing a few good stocks . . .

If on the other  hand you still decide to keep your money under your pillow, then you need to let me know where you live so that I can send some "awon boyz" to give you an incentive to not do that  _{just kidding}

Seriously, though, put your money to work for you.

wanaj0:

Not sure I understand what you are saying here!

A lot of peeps have bought probably at over-inflated prices and a lot of peeps must sell to recover or lock in profits the unfortunate thing is this will tend to happen all at the same time especially for the PO/IPO's and that will depress the share prices (simple law of demand and supply) and that is when the prices will start dropping and lead to the correction

windywendy:

what? speak up, say something we can understand _{apart from "hmmmm" of course}

@Wanaj0, I quite understand your view point. A correction is in order, but you'ld still see higher PE's before that happens, especially with all the PFA funds and other PE and hedge funds coming into the market. As long as there are no comparable alternative outlets for investing these funds, they'lll find their way into the stock market. And you and I know what happens when you have too much money chasing a few good stocks . . .

If on the other hand you still decide to keep your money under your pillow, then you need to let me know where you live so that I can send some "awon boyz" to give you an incentive to not do that _{just kidding}

Seriously, though, put your money to work for you.

hmnnnnn, there is irrational exuberance like i said because a lot of peeps are not really buying the good stocks they are throwing money at the good, the bad and the ugly i mean there is indiscriminate buying because some think all you have to do is invest in the NSE and by the time folks realise they have probably not made wisest of investment that is when there will be a scramble to dump these over-priced and over-bloated stocks

Like you said the key is to pick the few good men, i meant the few good stocks

RoughCut:

hmnnnnn, there is irrational exuberance like i said because a lot of peeps are not really buying the good stocks they are throwing money at the good, the bad and the ugly i mean there is indiscriminate buying because some think all you have to do is invest in the NSE and by the time folks realise they have probably not made wisest of investment that is when there will be a scramble to dump these over-priced and over-bloated stocks

Like you said the key is to pick the few good men, i meant the few good stocks

Kai, no misquote me o! If oga see this one now, na yawa be that

But seriously, you're right though. Can you imagine international breweries PO being oversubscribed to the point where the company has to return monies Amazing! That's what I call "moni miss road". Interesting unfolding of events! Let's keep watching.

windywendy:

Kai, no misquote me o! If oga see this one now, na yawa be that

But seriously, you're right though. Can you imagine international breweries PO being oversubscribed to the point where the company has to return monies Amazing! That's what I call "moni miss road". Interesting unfolding of events! Let's keep watching.

That tells you that peeps are just buying  indiscriminately. Cant even remember where the breweries is located. Well in line with the new fad they may decide to absorb the 'awoof' money since it was an unexpected windfall

Wonders will never cease to end!

RoughCut:

hmnnnnn, there is irrational exuberance like i said because a lot of peeps are not really buying the good stocks they are throwing money at the good, the bad and the ugly i mean there is indiscriminate buying because some think all you have to do is invest in the NSE and by the time folks realise they have probably not made wisest of investment that is when there will be a scramble to dump these over-priced and over-bloated stocks

Like you said the key is to pick the few good men, i meant the few good stocks

Thanks for breaking down the big grammar for me.

windywendy:

what? speak up, say something we can understand _{apart from "hmmmm" of course}  

@Wanaj0, I quite understand your view point. A correction is in order, but you'ld still see higher PE's before that happens, especially with all the PFA funds and other PE and hedge funds coming into the market. As long as there are no comparable alternative outlets for investing these funds, they'lll find their way into the stock market. And you and I know what happens when you have too much money chasing a few good stocks . . .

If on the other  hand you still decide to keep your money under your pillow, then you need to let me know where you live so that I can send some "awon boyz" to give you an incentive to not do that   _{just kidding}

Seriously, though, put your money to work for you.

My sister, first law for me is preservation of capital!

I look at some of the stocks being bought and I wonder!!!!!!

Part of the fear is that for the foreign institutional investor, 30% return p.a. is good enough. Whenever they decide to cash out, expect a monumental fall.

Also, with many people collecting loans (short term), when the facility is due, people will be forced to sell and that will also affect the market.

Additionally, an equilibrium position will be seen when you will have a resitsance. At this point there will be panic selling.

For those portfolio is made up of stocks that are not liquid, inability to sell will also lead to panic.

Yes my money will work for me but it is not a MUST to BUY. I mean people are buying anything including dead companies. Check out FAMAD, Lenards etc. Companies with no results nothing at all.

@Roughcut or any person that has bought IPOs or POs for your children, how do you do it? I meant in filling the form? Do you fill their name and sign your signature as "for***" or you sign your regular signature? You may treat this as for someone that's NRN.

@Naijadr, I have the UBA stuff as well but only because of the loan to buy FBN offer. Do you go through Tope each time or you have a direct link with the broker? I don't have a direct link. Do you also know if they had refunded your FBN money? My rep can't give me a straight answer.

RoughCut:

That tells you that peeps are just buying  indiscriminately. Cant even remember where the breweries is located. Well in line with the new fad they may decide to absorb the 'awoof' money since it was an unexpected windfall

Wonders will never cease to end!

Wonder why some people are castigating International Breweries.
With the German Brewery Giant, one of Europe's largest taking 60% of the company shares and its offer, International Breweries is definitely a good long term buy.
I know 2 big stockbroking firms that bought above 100 million units of this offer and I myself participated massively in this offer.
We will at the end of next year (2008) God willingly, know whether na money miss road and na gold mine the shareholders strike.

Those who participated in international breweries's offer must have realised about 50% appreciation on their investment

I  learnt   that  this    Fidelity  Bank  po  is  oversubscribed,  pls  can  some-one  confirm  that  4  me.

EMMAACHILE:

Wonder why some people are castigating International Breweries.
With the German Brewery Giant, one of Europe's largest taking 60% of the company shares and its offer, International Breweries is definitely a good long term buy.
I know 2 big stockbroking firms that bought above 100 million units of this offer and I myself participated massively in this offer.
We will at the end of the next year (2008) God willingly, know whether na money miss road and na gold mine the shareholders strike.

Hmmm, interesting information. I'll look this up, might be a good one afterall. But Emmaachile, do you figure this German brewery giant can turn the company around in 12months? Last I heard, the company was moribund -- as in zero production. Also, are they planning to introduce new brands, 'because the old int'l breweries brands weren't that much of a hit and I can imagine that their market share would have gone to the Guinesses and Nigerian breweries of this world. Have any idea what plans they have going forward? Please share.

@all

Heard that the First Bank rights issue allotment is out. My broker told me someting like those that bought like 5000 units got onli 1000. some veri funny stuff, anione with info on this lets hear.

Got quite a chunk and the news no funny.

EMMAACHILE:

Those who participated in international breweries's offer must have realised about 50% appreciation on their investment

Naaa, not so fast! It ain't realized until it is SOLD . But seriously, the info you posted earlier has picked my interest. If you have the prospectus pls upload it on your site -- I know the offer has closed but will just want to see what plans are in the offing. Thanks

International Brewwries,

Well i think we have not seen nothing yet. Pips will still buy Golden Guinea,

Nigeria is surely a diff. planet

INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES
http://www.africanselect.com/www/ipo/1740/PROSPECTUS_INTERNATIONAL_BREWERIES.pdf

@Emmaachile: Thanks!

@ Windywendy,
With all this talk about overpriced stocks what do you think about Bank PHB's offer at N17 when banks like Access came out at 14.90 and Diamond is like N16. To buy or not to buy? Have you analysed it for your consumption? Share please,

RoughCut:

Classic case of irrational exuberance to borrow Alan Greenspan's phrase it is asign that the market is in an overbought position and a  'correction' will definitely take place to restore some sort of equilibrium meaning those who have bought must definitely sell to realise profits and that is when i think the discerning investor should open a position or positions

@RoughCut

How imminent do you think this 'self-correction mechanism' will take place within the NSE   ?

there is no correction in the offing soonest,
most of the hegde funds coming-in inform of long term partnership outways the speculative one.
expect much more funds(petrodollar fund managers) to invade the market in the coming year,
if not where will they throw their money? emerging markets for sure,NSE is one of the pole holders.
death companies might start rising again,talk of golden guinea,lennards,aborysh what labs,ownuka high tech etc.

I'm quarter to deciding to participate in a PP for the first time. BGL.  Hard decision because the shares will not be listed for another 2 years and of course it will probably take longer. However, there will be the possibility to sell over the counter from early January next year. The offer closes by middle of this month.

Anyone with red warning signs for PPs? Worst case scenarios?? Anyone that has analyzed this particular PP? I am posting the offer document again.

http://us.f13.yahoofs.com/bc/473db9b4_a39e/bc/My+Documents/Private+placement+24+nov+07+CD.pdf?bfuVbVHBtVoxVeLZ

@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship btw the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is btw 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

RoughCut:

No cause for alarm i will do a nice little tutorial on these jargons and upload it to emaachile's upload website for all

Anxiously waiting for your tutorial on this, tnx.

bigjay01:

@Windywendy, Wanaj0, Roughcut, Pumping777 and all gurus to mention but a few and indeed all members of the house

A quick question, why is there not much enthusiasm about the Afribank PO. Is it that bad?

regards

I think most of the analysis on this thread is very short term focussed so an offer like Afribanks' may not make the cut.

Returns are generally being expected within 1 year even though even 1 year is now being considered "medium to long-term" nowadays.

Afribank is seen as expensive short term. Just by looking at the cost of the shares compared to the expected future earnings of the company in the very near future.

If you are investing long term, I don't think the prospects are so bad though but still you probably still have better offers out there.

Temmie10:

@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship between the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is between 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

Yes, some of these growth rates are just astronomical making it hard to say with so much certainty that a company stock is "expensive". Like you said, one interim result and everything changes by far!!

Imagine this. Costain Internation sold off their stake in Nigeria and touted this as a very deft move when I was reading through a document on their strategic plan.

Now check out the value of Costain in Nigeria Costain International won't consider that move so smart right now

Temmie10:

@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship between the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is between 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

Yes, some of these growth rates are just astronomical making it hard to say with so much certainty that a company stock is "expensive". Like you said, one interim result and everything changes by far!!

Imagine this. Costain Internation sold off their stake in Nigeria and touted this as a very deft move when I was reading through a document on their strategic plan.

Now check out the value of Costain in Nigeria Costain International won't consider that move so smart right now

When will the PEs of companies like Nahco or Japaul come to reasonable levels?? Folks just believe in some mega growh lurking (I don't) and are willing to pay these premiums.

Imagine that UBA's 18 month PAT for 2006 was 11.6B but for 12 months of 2006 UBA declared 21.4B!! The 12 month PAT nearly doubled the previous year's 18 month PAT. Na wa for NSE.