windywendy:

Pastor! na you dey give this kind advice?  No be market manipulation be this? 

No, Wendy.  The husband would think its a MIRACLE, and both will go to different denominations to give THANKSGIVING and TESTI-MONEY

samstone4:


Perhaps it will take some changes at the top of UAC before we reap the bounties - to use Nairalander language.

Samstone4

Are you thinking what i'm already thinking??

VOTE SAMSTONE4 FOR UAC CHAIRMAN!!!

Thanks for the insightful comment! You're very right. I wonder how a rights issue will dilute UACN's stake in uac-prop. Won't the rights issue be proportional to existing shareholding?

windywendy:

Pastor! na you dey give this kind advice? No be market manipulation be this?

market manipulation ke na to engage in mutually beneficiall relationship with all stakeholders!!! The only person the guy fir sell the thing to na him wife!!!!!

samstone4:

@Wanajo, Roughcut, Windywendy etc

UAC properties has been a bit sluggish lately.

They did gave a paltry 1 for 10 bonus about 2 years ago and the dividend yield is poor.

They bought 1004 with Union bank and the bank's subsidiaries but UAC Prop eventually took over the entire thing.

The problem with Lagos state government has to do with the state demanding that they pay some tax for environmental impact of the development! This is more like blackmail because we all know that the actual population of 1004 is likely to go down after the development compared to when the money changers used to rent the flats out by the room.

Not based at home, but my understanding is that after months of inactivity work resumed in January at 1004.
My problem with UAC Properties is the fact that they keep borrowing money to finance their projects when the small investors keep asking them to do a rights issue to finance these projects. All Toms, Dicks and Halims are coming to the market to raise money but not our UAC Properties.
The parent company always insists that they won't take up their rights. I suspect they are more concerned about losing control of the company than making money for us small shareholders. This is not in the interest of the company.

I remain there but would have taken  a considerably higher stake in it if not for this anachronism.
Perhaps it will take some changes at the top of UAC before we reap the bounties - to use Nairalander language.

It is still a good stable stock that you can go to bed and forget, it will never crash at the current price.

Meanwhile we pray for a miracle to begin - as we used to say while fasting for 100 days nonstop.

Samstone4

Good insight but some additions.

Lagos state govt got to grant a fresh C of O to UAC-P and Tinubu was ready to milk them dry. As at now, can't see anywork going on there. Will check again this evening.

UACN does not have money to pump into UAC-P. Moreover debt is cheaper now than raising equity in Nigeria. That's the sad truth that will hit a lot of companies. it's not only about control.

Yes UAC-P will not crash for a lot of reasons (liquidity inclusive), but it is also not the kind of stock for an agressive portfolio.

Mr. Risky:

No, Wendy. The husband would think its a MIRACLE, and both will go to different denominations to give THANKSGIVING and TESTI-MONEY

Na true you talk OOOOO

The funny thing was that the guy was angry with the broker for not warning him when he was buying. Ia sked him why he was buying and he said those stocks were very CHEAP!!!!!!!

Wth Love to FO2 from WindyWendy!

loma:

Wth Love to FO2 from WindyWendy!

Where is the Green (or na white) flag and the olive branch

wanaj0:

Check Beta Glass PAT for full year

2002 714m
2003 541m
2004 162,6m
2005 XXXm
2006 381m
2007 514 (9 months)

So the 2007 PAT will likely equal 2002 figures!!! So they are just recovering to 2007 levels!!!!! In 2002, not sure that the price went past 10.00 that time!!!!

Look again at the figures above.

Beta Glass's PAT started dipping in 2003 up till 2005. There has been a turnaround since 2005 till now. Do you expect Beta Glass to be N10 now with a forward PE of around 7? N10 in 2002 is worth a lot more than N10 today in any case so no need to make this comparison.

Most manufacturing companies went through the same cycle due to the harsh climate then and most of them and doing better now because of the enabling environment.

Should we analyze companies like Cadbury or Unilever in this same way?

loma:

Wth Love to FO2 from WindyWendy!

I sabi that lady from Wendy's Burger_{dont eat junk food anymore though!}

pumping777:

Look again at the figures above.

Beta Glass's turnover started dipping in 2003 up till 2005. There has been a turnaround since 2005 till now. Do you expect Beta Glass to be N10 now with a forward PE of around 7? N10 in 2002 is worth a lot more than N10 today in any case so no need to make this comparison.

Most manufacturing companies went through the same cycle due to the harsh climate then and most of them and doing better now because of the enabling environment.

Should we analyze companies like Cadbury or Unilever in this same way?

Pumping, I am not talking about share prices but profitability. The figures I posted are PAT not turnover.

if N10.00 in 2002 is worth more than N10.00 today, it also follows that N714m PAT in 2002 is more than N700m today.

Don't get me wrong, I think I recommended Beta Glass here along with NGC around the 12.00 - 16.00 mark because they were both undervalued. However, going forward, Beta Glass need to come up with a strategy of how they will react to the challenges going forward. That's why for the long term I am wary of them.

Well, make I log off!!!!

For those in Diaspora, wey dey make money from Naija without paying tax to FIRS, God no your house address OO!!!

wanaj0:

Where is the Green (or na white) flag and the olive branch

No mind the man o!

@loma, no be olive branch or white flag I talk? Which one you come dey na?

@ Wanaj0 and WindyWendy.

I have made 25% from Dunlop, do you think it would be right to sell now and get into beta glass and ikeja hotels? abi make I wait small?

would rather sell dunlop at b/w 9 to 11

would rather sell dunlop at b/w 9 to 11

wanaj0:

IBTC is changing its financial end to December to agree with the Standard Bank group and CBN directive. Will take affect from April 1  2007!!!! So no declaration till this time next year from IBTC!!!!!!!! Na 21 months result them go declare

Dear Valued Investor,



Kindly be informed that IBTC Chartered Bank Plc has changed its financial year end from 31st March to 31st December. [color=#990000]The change takes effect from the financial year that commenced April 1, 2007 which ended 31st December 2007[b][/b]. This change has become necessary in order to harmonise the Bank's financial year with that of Standard Bank Group which recently acquired a 50.1% equity stake in IBTC Chartered Bank Plc. This is also in line with the CBN directive to harmonise the financial year end of all banks in Nigeria.


Regards


Research and Strategy Team

Zenith Securities Limited [/color]
The above quote is a message I received from ZSL. My own interpretation of it is that IBTC will present results for 9 months ended December 2007 and thereafter in december 2008 It will present a 12 month results.
Besides I think the maximum time allowed by CAMA for the presentation of audited resulted is 18 months

RoughCut:

I will add Costain to that list. As at last year before it went on TS it was one of the top 3 on the NSE in terms of fundamentals so that company will make anybody's list anyday. Even better now with the funds they have got and hopefully results to match

In the Insurance space i will add UNIC and LASACO. I agree with you that AIICO has to shed some more blood like i said before that one get loooooong MOT o!

I'm not adding CAVEAT EMPTY/ EMPTOR/ EMPTRESS because these are safe-havens_{excuse the pun madam wendy!} for the long journey ahead

And of course Oand O if you have an 'agbero' broker hmnnnnn _{SKYE REIT will go into my list but the volumes are too thin for now only 20M}

I'm a bit wary of Costain because the outstanding shares will be diluted about 8x when the PO shares are listed. There could be some selling pressure.

My thinking is that it may be better to hop on at that time.

MAKE PERSON TYPE SOMETHIN NA!

JUST A TEASER FOR THE NIGHT.

WETIN MAKE WE BUY TOMORROW MORNING?

ME WEY DON BUY UAC PROP, MAKE I GO SELL?

Daily Stock Position attached:

Dunno if it has been posted already as I am about 5 pages behind. This thread is on steroids!

Pumping777

You said something a few days ago about some stocks you would not tell us about because you hadn't confimred if your broker had bought them. Please give us the gist now, I believe your super broker must have delivered. What do you think is about to happen in the insurance sector?. Am off to adult college would pick up reply's later.

All,

I am brand new in Naira land and NSE. Can anybody please advice me on AFRINVEST? I need to know if they are good brokers to deal with as per buying and selling for me with minimal issues

This short timing sef! Or maybe its still too early to complain but I started the year by fixing a particular list of stocks as a long term portfolio to review it by end of Dec 2008.

Then I made another list of the same stocks and started practicing all types of CICO, RORO, SIRO etc and has been making fantastic returns, sometimes 30% on some stocks, excellent fast moves as I thought.

Today something told me to review my activities so far and compare the value of my two portfolios. Lo and behold, my long term no trading side has done 42% this two months, while my fast CICO portfolio is trailing and is only 18% up, haba I dey go up or am I going down? Is commisions for frequent trades to blame? Is it too early to complain? My broker is an angel in all these, selling and buying like he is Musa Al farki!

What has I done wrong or do I change tacticts this early in the year? Bought Leventis and UTC around 3.85 each and jumped out around 6, now see all the money I left on the table.

All the CICO experts , you better talk nowoo or dont you guys compare two portfolios to know which system works and which dont?

invisible!:

This short timing sef! Or maybe its still too early to complain but I started the year by fixing a particular list of stocks as a long term portfolio to review it by end of Dec 2008.

Then I made another list of the same stocks and started practicing all types of CICO, RORO, SIRO etc and has been making fantastic returns, sometimes 30% on some stocks, excellent fast moves as I thought.

Today something told me to review my activities so far and compare the value of my two portfolios. Lo and behold, my long term no trading side has done 42% this two months, while my fast CICO portfolio is trailing and is only 18% up, haba I dey go up or am I going down? Is commisions for frequent trades to blame? Is it too early to complain? My broker is an angel in all these, selling and buying like he is Musa Al farki!

What has I done wrong or do I change tacticts this early in the year? Bought Leventis and UTC around 3.85 each and jumped out around 6, now see all the money I left on the table.

All the CICO experts , you better talk nowoo or don't you guys compare two portfolios to know which system works and which don't?

One draw back with CICO is that it is hard to have ALL your money working for you at once. That time in between when you are looking for the next thing to buy or when your broker does not get to buy eats a lot into your profit.

Also, there will be so many times that you jump ship even though the stock is still heading north albeit not immediately. So one wonders why they are buying a stock now for double the price they sold it just 2 months ago.

@Roughcut on FCMB

They made a projection of N15B for FY '07 in their offer prospectus so is it possible that they  make ~N7B in the next 3 months?. Something tells me not i thought the projection in the prospectus was way too aggressive.

Their prospectus said part of the money raised would be used to acquire csl stockbrockers which will deliver 1.5b FYE. There was another 1.5b from another source which I can't remember now. If you add this 3b to the expected 12b from the banks PAT, they appear on course to meet the projection.

I also heard from the grapevine that they used/are using their GDR money on some juicy turnaround deals that will even add to the bottomline.

We shall see at FYE.

Thanks pumping for seeing things my way, the one that pains me is going back into companies I sold at double the price I sold.

Just two days after I sold cornerstone ins and the yeye stock started an upward trend that pushed it nearly 50%, was I mad about that? I will be leaving all CICO for two months plus, not too fast anymore.
Another problem will be baring myself from going back to a particlar stock just because I sold too early and the bull just wants to start on that one. Painful sometimes.

SKYESHELT gained 10.25% today, i thought the max price a stock could gain in a day is 5%?

Wanajo abeg you fit talk the agbero broker where get u oando?

invisible!:

This short timing sef! Or maybe its still too early to complain but I started the year by fixing a particular list of stocks as a long term portfolio to review it by end of Dec 2008.

Then I made another list of the same stocks and started practicing all types of CICO, RORO, SIRO etc and has been making fantastic returns, sometimes 30% on some stocks, excellent fast moves as I thought.

Today something told me to review my activities so far and compare the value of my two portfolios. Lo and behold, my long term no trading side has done 42% this two months, while my fast CICO portfolio is trailing and is only 18% up, haba I dey go up or am I going down? Is commisions for frequent trades to blame? Is it too early to complain? My broker is an angel in all these, selling and buying like he is Musa Al farki!

What has I done wrong or do I change tacticts this early in the year? Bought Leventis and UTC around 3.85 each and jumped out around 6, now see all the money I left on the table.

All the CICO experts , you better talk nowoo or don't you guys compare two portfolios to know which system works and which don't?

I don't claim to be a cico expert but here's my take.

There's definitely a case for long-term investing, but one has to pick such stocks very carefully. For instance, I bought AG Leventis at N3.45 around September 26 last year. At today's price, the stock has done over 340% gross in just 5months (i'm using gross because commission charges vary with different people). With cico, one would have to do about 35% per month compounded (you do the math, i no fit explain am for yinglish language) to get that type of return. Is this possible? In a bull market, maybe, but it's a tall order however you look at it. Having said that though, there are some other stocks that if one had bought and held for the same timeframe as that of the AG leventis example above, the returns today would be almost nothing to write home about. IBTC comes to mind. So the trick is picking the right stocks at the right time and holding for the right length of time. And that's the reason I generally prefer to buy and hold turnaround stocks, as long term returns on those ones generally far outweigh the returns you'll get from cico-ing, even when compounded. For most other stocks, I trade -- especially when the market is bullish. My opinion though, plus all the caveat types apply  oh,and PPs are exempted because those ones usually come at give-away prices (you know, buy-1-get-5-free type thingy  )

@windy, I am starting to think that the investing public are not happy with what IBTC announced so the huge volume and eventual price loss.

Dont you think this scenario will play out in many other banks since december is still very far away? I am wary of buying more bank stocks.

invisible!:

@windy, I am starting to think that the investing public are not happy with what IBTC announced so the huge volume and eventual price loss.

Dont you think this scenario will play out in many other banks since december is still very far away? I am wary of buying more bank stocks.

Unfortunately I don't know too much about IBTC but I believe the bank has some really good potential. 9mth result should be out anytime soon and the investing public might change their minds when they see the result -- I expect it to be good.  Not too sure of valuation though. From my perspective though, the fruits of the stanbic merger will begin to show up in their bottom line from this year. And since this year's result will not be out until sometime next year, I'ld say right now would not be the right time to buy a stock like ibtc --  not because one won't make any money, but because the money can be better put to work elsewhere, especially since the market is generally bullish. I guess the same reasoning should be applied to all bank stocks. Timing is of the essence, _{in addition to other things too numerous to mention}

invisible!:

@windy, I am starting to think that the investing public are not happy with what IBTC announced so the huge volume and eventual price loss.

Dont you think this scenario will play out in many other banks since december is still very far away? I am wary of buying more bank stocks.

Banks. Looking back at this year, none of the banking stocks has been fantastic so far.

It could be this December year end that is part of the problem. The interim results are just not making any difference even when the results are fantastic.

Another issue is the relative high nominal price coupled with relative high outstanding shares. A stock like Unity will not behave like a penny simply because demand will always be met due to the outstanding shares.

Another factor is all the PO certificates that are being listed for these banks which is driving down the prices.

pumping777:

Banks. Looking back at this year, none of the banking stocks has been fantastic so far.

It could be this December year end that is part of the problem. The interim results are just not making any difference even when the results are fantastic.

Any issue is the relative high nominal price.

Another factor is all the PO certificates that are being listed for these banks which is driving down the prices.

What would you then say of the petroleum sector that seems to have outperformed the banks then?

windywendy:

I don't claim to be a cico expert but here's my take.

There's definitely a case for long-term investing, but one has to pick such stocks very carefully. For instance, I bought AG Leventis at N3.45 around September 26 last year. At today's price, the stock has done over 340% gross in just 5months (i'm using gross because commission charges vary with different people). With cico, one would have to do about 35% per month compounded (you do the math, i no fit explain am for yinglish language) to get that type of return. Is this possible? In a bull market, maybe, but it's a tall order however you look at it. Having said that though, there are some other stocks that if one had bought and held for the same timeframe as that of the AG leventis example above, the returns today would be almost nothing to write home about. IBTC comes to mind. So the trick is picking the right stocks and holding for the right length of time. And that's the reason I generally prefer to buy and hold turnaround stocks, as long term returns on those ones generally far outweigh the returns you'll get from cico-ing, even when compounded. For most other stocks, I trade -- especially when the market is bullish. My opinion though, plus all the caveat types apply  oh,and PPs are exempted because those ones usually come at give-away prices (you know, buy-1-get-5-free type thingy  )

Yes, WindyWendy.  For stocks that, for me, holds some future, like newly turned around ones, I am not for CICO.  I RIRO only when I have no plans to hold that stock and just capitalising on market sentiments.  I give you an example.  Last Monday 18th I bought 100,000 units of AIICO at N6.07 when I read that the BID was still very high.  I offloaded at N7.40 yesterday with a net income of N115,000 in ONE WEEK. It sounds sweet.  But since June last year I bought Dangote Sugar at N39.99.  Since then only the quarterly peppermint dividend of 40k consolation has kept me going along with news of better things to come which of course have not come as least as at today!  Hence I agree with you Wendy.  Picking stocks for the long term is not an idle game, one has to be extremely careful.

My Long Term stocks right now are:

C & I Leasing
First Bank
Diamond Bank
A G Leventis
Dunlop
NASCON
BETA GLASS (Hope there will be better in glass soon  Wind of Bonus )
G T Bank
Zenith Bank
Oceanic Bank
Live Stock Feed

You see that majority here is turn around or just completed PO which I believe will translate to better things in the nearest future.

I did all forms of CICO last year and lost out on wonderful opportunities and benefits.  Sold my 50,000 units of Intercontinental at N27.90 which I bought at N24.  If I had not sold it, the returns as at today price of N44 would have been gargantuan  Hence I am watching to catch NIWI at the first bus stop tomorrow or Friday.  I am ready to wait it out at least for the next 2 years until they prove me wrong.

This THREAD is most entertaining in addition to the prospect of making dohs, hence people are kind of attracted to CICO.  It has its own obvious DISADVANTAGES as you must LIVE on information, and RELIABLE information at that, otherwise, you are sure to have WAPCO injury.  Yes, at times when you compare the returns in addition to the labour, you would find that there is nothing to write HOUSE about

@wanaj0,

Thanks for the info.I have not received any contract note for the execution of the orders from Afrinvest.I don't know how many Dunlop shares they bought, how much they bought it for or when they bought it and they couldnt even bother informing me about it. Mike Murdock did say that its better to "go to where you are celebrated instead of being tolerated"