It is with a saddened heart I write this piece. Hostilities are back in the Niger Delta and this time it is for a complete shutdown of oil production in the area.

The major group NDA is not backing down and other groups are springing up. The signs are worrisome. There are five affected parties in this tussle. The group NDA itself, the Federal government, the people of the region, other oil producing countries and arm producing countries.

In the coming weeks, months or years if there is no solution, oil production gradually comes to a stop. Military action depending on how it goes may not work.

From the way the attacks are carried out, it shows there is a high level of coordination and military intervention may not stop it. It may only result in high human casualties and the government will spend more to feed people when IDPs eventually start springing up in the region like we now have in the North East.

With military action, the government risks spending huge amount of money in procuring weapons to fight these invincible dark bombers. The owner of a house knows the house best when it is dark hence they succeed and may always do. Souls will be lost on both sides and the government pays even more on compensation and post conflict clean up. Still oil production comes to a halt as the group might not spare any elevated structure be it platform, rig or production and storage unit above the water. The cost of rebuilding would be too high to imagine. Without military action, the government only looses from not producing oil and this cost is a lot less. The government only needs to focus on driving a united country without oil and war if negotiation fails.

With military action the group might be eliminated a last, but it will be after a brutal war that could give rise to separatist and sympathizers leading to a more complicated situation and full blown civil war. Without any military action the group will bring production to Zero and maybe stay idle. If they start attacking communities after achieving their aim then they lose sympathy from all Nigerians. Financiers soon get fed up and surrender.

With military action women and children will be internally displaced and become refugees. The people of the region will initially starve due to reduced commercial activities and may later have to take sides if the conflict escalates. Without military action, revenue allocation from the government will slowly reduce and the people of the region may turn against the militants.

With military action, other oil producing nations will enjoy high revenue from oil price as it will go up due to likely zero production. Without military action, the story is the same as oil production still may hit zero if hostilities continue.

With military action, arm producing countries smile to the bank as they supply arms to warring parties. More than 80% of weaponry is imported. Without a military action, they lose.

Solution:
No concrete solution exists but it is easier to negotiate at zero production as all parties are hungry.
World leaders led by the British government should have a meeting with major ethnic tribes in Nigeria to discuss the way forward for the country as more groups may be birthed in the near future. This is the right time for that as it is still in its early stage. The situation is political and those whom will suffer are the poor people who never benefited from the resources in the first place.

Divine intervention is needed here.

This country needs God

The cost of military action that may not yield immediate fruit has the capacity to add huge megawatt to the National gird if invested in solar energy. This a ploy to distract the government of the day and they should not give in for the interest of the Nigerian public. We can't be leading peace and stability moves in the ECOWAS region and be starting a war.
The government should try to keep all dialogue options open while it tries to run an economy without oil if they fail.
Who knows, it could be a test of diversification.