Yes - IPSOS - did also release the first and last survey - so far we know IPSOS (Only one poll) & InfoTRASH are predicting Raila lead - but not a win. Mizani & IRS are predicting Ruto win. Radio Africa & TIFA are saying it's too close to call.

Mizani has been revelation in the number of polls they are doing - they are almost doing political polling as their only business. I did analyze their performance against UDA nomination - they were pretty good.
TIFA is okay as long as Tom Wolf is there - he is best of the worst. IPSOS fired him and now they have some joker doing their polls.
The least said about InfoTrash the better
Radio Africa have been doing monthly - and before that quartely polls for a long time - I'd say they've done a great job

MzeeMwenyewe1:


Speaking of facts where did you leave IPSOS

rvp2018:
IRS has done the most comprehensive of surveys - https://irs.co.ke/ - and they show Ruto win is big.
NIS knows Ruto is winning.
US gov knows Ruto is winning - CIA do these kind of opinion polls - and know the winner months ahead.
Now US embassy predicting violence in Kisumu - that means Raila stronghold will see violence - because he will lose.
Meanwhile desperate Uhuru and his gov are trying to pull all kind of last minute stunts - but the die is cast.
All the desperation - are making the bad situation worse - Unga/Maize floor subsidy(bribe) - has now turned into another petrol - from high prices to complete shortage/starvation.
And you expect voters to reward Uhuru with a 3rd term.

In 2013&17 you said Kenya is a sovereign state and it won't back down to pressure from US and EU, this time round the chicken seller went crying to the same people that the election is not free and fair
We will reiterate your message that Kenya is a sovereign state and we have our own internal Mechanism which have Identified North Rift as a potential clashes zone, GSU officers are been deployed as we speak.
Regarding kisumu, there's no need to panick because its going to be a friendly celebration like the ones witnessed when we got independence.... Freedom is here

Seem we got one more - this one is like IRS - near factual.

Discovery Research Services operate in the SADC countries carrying out qualitative and quantitative studies. Countries we operate are ,Zimbabwe,Zambia,Malawi.Angola,Botswana,Mozambique

rvp2018:
Yes - IPSOS - did also release the first and last survey - so far we know IPSOS (Only one poll) & InfoTRASH are predicting Raila lead - but not a win. Mizani & IRS are predicting Ruto win. Radio Africa & TIFA are saying it's too close to call.

Mizani has been revelation in the number of polls they are doing - they are almost doing political polling as their only business. I did analyze their performance against UDA nomination - they were pretty good.
TIFA is okay as long as Tom Wolf is there - he is best of the worst. IPSOS fired him and now they have some joker doing their polls.
The least said about InfoTrash the better
Radio Africa have been doing monthly - and before that quartely polls for a long time - I'd say they've done a great job

Mizani has lost the little credibility they have when they say Sarai will trounce Abdulswamad. The reason they're citing is because of sonko who decamped 2 days ago

Though I am biased but let me tell you Maina there's no competition between the two, we the Mombasa people cancelled Sarai long time ago. Any other person other than him could give ODM a run for their money but Sarai.. HELL NO!

I dont think US has interfered. They are warning their own citizen. In 2013 - US & EU - were openly threatening kenyans with consequence if we elected ICC indicted persons. We did. And from that time - US and EU - realized kenya politics and moral compass is alien to them.

I have worked with few CIAs and foreign service - they know their stuff - trust when they say violence will likely happen in Kisumu - they know Raila has lost.

Kenya gov is desperately pulling last minute stunts - but they are not working. Attempts to cause tribal tension btw Kalenjin and Kikuyus have failed - because an idiot can see through it - why would Ruto self-immolate by threatening kikuyus who are majority voting for him?

My friend - prepare for big loss - kenyans are getting rid of dynasties - Raila, Kenyatta, Mois - and all their tentacles will be plucked out from next week - and by dec 25th christmas - we will be done with them.

They will be running like Guptas and Zumas.

MzeeMwenyewe1:

In 2013&17 you said Kenya is a sovereign state and it won't back down to pressure from US and EU, this time round the chicken seller went crying to the same people that the election is not free and fair
We will reiterate your message that Kenya is a sovereign state and we have our own internal Mechanism which have Identified North Rift as a potential clashes zone, GSU officers are been deployed as we speak.
Regarding kisumu, there's no need to panick because its going to be a friendly celebration like the ones witnessed when we got independence.... Freedom is here

rvp2018:
Seem we got one more - this one is like IRS - near factual.

Discovery Research Services operate in the SADC countries carrying out qualitative and quantitative studies. Countries we operate are ,Zimbabwe,Zambia,Malawi.Angola,Botswana,Mozambique

My response

I have seen two opinion polls of Mombasa - showing Sarai dramatic rise. So it's not just Mizani. Mike Sonko broke the Joho& coastal cabal bottle and got the genie (jinis ) out. You cannot bottle it back. The Wabaras(upcountry) are now incited and they want nothing to do with Joho and his project Abdulnassir. Sarai is very lucky man.

MzeeMwenyewe1:


Mizani has lost the little credibility they have when they say Sarai will trounce Abdulswamad. The reason they're citing is because of sonko who decamped 2 days ago
Though I am biased but let me tell you Maina there's no competition between the two, we the Mombasa people cancelled Sarai long time ago. Any other person other than him could give ODM a run for their money but Sarai.. HELL NO!

rvp2018:
I have seen two opinion polls of Mombasa - showing Sarai dramatic rise. So it's not just Mizani. Mike Sonko broke the Joho& coastal cabal bottle and got the genie (jinis ) out. You cannot bottle it back. The Wabaras(upcountry) are now incited and they want nothing to do with Joho and his project Abdulnassir. Sarai is very lucky man.

The kind of shock awaiting you is unimaginable, for now enjoy yourself on Nairaland.

And mine is every more adverse for your side. You wont be laughing next week.
My prediction is 55 percent win for Ruto - and Raila will 44 percent.
I am predicting UDA will win half counties, senators and women rep.
UDA will also win 150Mps - bringing total 180Mps.
Now add Ford-K/ANC/Small parties - you're starring at a disaster

MzeeMwenyewe1:


My response

Let's see look like Kenya's National Intelligence Services - duly informed the CIA - where premium tears will be loading - Kisumu - not the neigberhouring county of Kericho - where I call home . In Kericho we will be drinking non stop for a week

What Ruto has done is astounding - beating combined gov and opposition is no joke.

MzeeMwenyewe1:

The kind of shock awaiting you is unimaginable, for now enjoy yourself on Nairaland.

rvp2018:
Let's see look like Kenya's National Intelligence Services - duly informed the CIA - where premium tears will be loading - Kisumu - not the neigberhouring county of Kericho - where I call home . In Kericho we will be drinking non stop for a week

What Ruto has done is astounding - beating combined gov and opposition is no joke.

Kenya has gone to the dogs, you mean there are people who take Moses Kuria words as nuggets of wisdom The person who laughed at the death of Chris Musando, the man who flushes middle fingers in rallies.

When did NIS conduct and release those polls. Bring their website, if you can't puliz spare the international readers the misinformation. I know you are desperate to find credibility but this is too low for you.

Dont sweat it. We have 5 days to go. We will comeback and see if NIS were right. What is more concerning is to see desperate ODM trying to incite hate in RV - I think deep state has given up - and now Junet-Joho shallow ODM state has taken over - printing leaflets,deploying police and releasing edited hate videos.

MzeeMwenyewe1:

Kenya has gone to the dogs, you mean there are people who take Moses Kuria words as nuggets of wisdom The person who laughed at the death of Chris Musando, the man who flushes middle fingers in rallies.

When did NIS conduct and release those polls. Bring their website, if you can't puliz spare the international readers the misinformation. I know you are desperate to find credibility but this is too low for you.

rvp2018:
Dont sweat it. We have 5 days to go. We will comeback and see if NIS were right. What is more concerning is to see desperate ODM trying to incite hate in RV - I think deep state has given up - and now Junet-Joho shallow ODM state has taken over - printing leaflets,deploying police and releasing edited hate videos.

Releasing doctored voice purporting to be of Junet speaking to an IEBC official is where you draw the line. In 2017 when you used Cambridge Analytica to malign Raila on Facebook you didn't stop and realize how you were stocking tensions.

When you passed the bill that gives police more powers for violence you thought we aren't humans. Pouring feaces on Jacaranda grounds. My friend sit down and relax, UDA are not Angels.

You have a presidential candidate who is linked to killing of Jacob Juma/ ICC witness/ Chris Musando/ His maid/ AP Kenei and grabs land for fun. His deputy who stole 1.5bn as a first time Mp, Worry about that.

I can't wait for this to be over with!!

Saddamochieng00:


Don't join in the company of the intellectually unprivileged askiaharem. Look into what the climate cultist have been doing across Europe and in parts of the US. I know youre one of those dudes that religiously believe everything they see on TV but for this one the evidence is overwhelming and if you dig into it you'll come to the same conclusion as me and many others. Climate change is a hoax.

As strange as it may seem some people JUST can't get it- AFTER ALL THIS TIME!?

2017 and 2013 weren't that long ago! Do people have selective memories or have they TRULY forgotten!?

Anyway, I'll just leave this here.

To Whom It May Concern
Re: Opinion Polls reliability

How pollsters got it all wrong in the last two elections
Wednesday, August 03, 2022
...pollsters largely got it wrong in the past two elections when they showed ODM leader Raila Odinga in the lead only for President Uhuru Kenyatta to emerge the winner

.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/how-pollsters-got-it-all-wrong-in-the-last-two-elections-3900898

It seems, as with EVERYTHING under the sun there is an explanation:

The answer to this puzzle can be explained by what we can call “The Ego Effect.” In essence, The Ego Effect suggests that you're prone to making the same mistakes over and over again when you protect your beliefs instead of learning from your mistakes and changing your beliefs in response to conflicting evidence.

https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/the-science-behind-why-we-keep-making-the-same-mistakes-over-and-over-again

Carry on!

rvp2018:
It's Uhuru who committed a fatal mistake this week by threatening folks. Now Ruto, Rigathi, Kuria and Ndidi have run with "my life is in danger" - I dont see how Uhuru can comeback from that.

As for Smartmatic - they didnt catch anything - the caught three storekeepers/logistic officers - carrying useless barcode serials (even smallest supermarket generate those). They eventually coiled their tails and allowed them to continue their work - basic logistics of distributing KIEMS kit.

Rigging kenya election in this day and age is very hard - they are many layers of oversight - which is why it's world most expensive election - after the one the UN used to conduct in Afgan.

We have a week to go - and we terminate very many political deadwoods.

Thought you said you owned IEBC? How now its hard to rig after your plan was foiled. Ruto's plan was to do what he and Uhuru did in 2017, cap the % at 44 vs 54. That was the task of the Venezuelan hackers. Thats why Mwizi Sugu was very confident of a win. If you noticed his confidence levels and bravado chest thumping tanked after the police folied the whole plan led by DCI.

rvp2018:
Yes - IPSOS - did also release the first and last survey - so far we know IPSOS (Only one poll) & InfoTRASH are predicting Raila lead - but not a win. Mizani & IRS are predicting Ruto win. Radio Africa & TIFA are saying it's too close to call.

Mizani has been revelation in the number of polls they are doing - they are almost doing political polling as their only business. I did analyze their performance against UDA nomination - they were pretty good.
TIFA is okay as long as Tom Wolf is there - he is best of the worst. IPSOS fired him and now they have some joker doing their polls.
The least said about InfoTrash the better
Radio Africa have been doing monthly - and before that quartely polls for a long time - I'd say they've done a great job

Its a pity till now you dont know Mizani is a company of fraudsters Ndindi Nyoro, his wife, and another fraud by the name Haron Muthomi Kriba wanted for money laundering and bitcoin fraud.

FAKE 'Mizani Awards' company unmasked

Hiding behind Mizani Africa, the Tangatanga wing have engaged in establishingand buying up companies to drive their narratives.

In a recent event awarding 'utilization of CDF kitty funds', Tangatanga allied MPs were ranked highly by the dubious Mizani Africa.

In the good stage-managed event, Mvita and Nyali are some of the constituencies that triumphed in the utilization of CDF kitty. Nyali MP, Mohammed Ali, is a staunch Ruto supporter.

Kenyans have questioned the authenticity of the awards as it has been discovered that the company had been in existent for only six months, having registered as an online digital marketing business engaging in cryptocurrency.

Cryptocurrency is considered a black market business and has been widely used for money laundering. To cap it all up, one of the registered owners is Ndindi Nyoro's wife, Sophia Wambui and Haron Kiriba a known scam artist.

Kiharu constituency represented by Ndindi Nyoro and Mandera Constituency is among those that emerged as the 'best'.

In 2019, the Mashujaa awards named Embakasi East MP Babu Owino as the best Kenyan MP but he was last in the latest 'awards' by Mizani Africa.

rvp2018:
Seem we got one more - this one is like IRS - near factual.

Discovery Research Services operate in the SADC countries carrying out qualitative and quantitative studies. Countries we operate are ,Zimbabwe,Zambia,Malawi.Angola,Botswana,Mozambique

Forget the fake opinion polls commissioned by Mwizi to save face. Out of the pollsters below IPSOS is likely to be the mos correct, they predicted 2017 better than the rest.

In August 2017, an Ipsos survey showed that President Kenyatta had a 47 per cent rating among registered voters ahead of Mr Odinga who scored 44 per cent in a study conducted between July 22 and 30.

FYI riot police trucks are being ferried to your homeland, the defacto new opposition stronghold of Kalenjin Rift Valley where tantrums are expected next week after your son is politically emasculated. Enyewe Mungu Si Kipmeno!

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-08-02-state-deploys-additional-security-in-parts-of-rift-valley/

Ruto has no chance of fomenting chaos next week. He is headed behind bars at Kamiti Maximum where he can cry for weeks on end with no interruption.

Police Water cannon trucks being ferried to RVP's homeland of Kalenjin Rift Valley to quell expected chaos after their kingpin, a known thief and murderer is beaten

@RVP If you see this parked around your hood, just behave.

https://twitter.com/cbs_ke/status/1554497367268884487

Kalenjin - and water canon; What for . Kalenjin are not going to start any war until this over; I dont think you understand how disciplined and well organized our people are. The day Ruto says start. You'll see kenya police shaking in their booths.

Like in 2007 - Kalenjin will take 24-48 hours to overrun police from Mt Elgon to Nakuru town - from West Pokot to Narok - and the army will be deployed on 3rd day - and then civil war will start.

Our people are laughing at those jokes. Those ones should be taken to Kisumu - to deal with stones throwing.

For Kalenjin - you need to prepare KDF - kenya police cannot handle anything - kalenjin are going to deploy millions of warriors who will fight at night - during the day they will be resting - at middle of the night they go for the police - what will those things help you If Kalenjin get 10k guns - Kenya is over and done with. Those 10K guns can hold the KDF until it's split into factions.

Dont even think of waking the monster that is Kalenjin warriors - in the day and age when Ruto has almost cult like following. You just want kenya to join failed states.

Obiano13:
Police Water cannon trucks being ferried to RVP's homeland of Kalenjin Rift Valley to quell expected chaos after their kingpin, a known thief and murderer is beaten

@RVP If you see this parked around your hood, just behave.

https://twitter.com/cbs_ke/status/1554497367268884487

In 5 days - we will know which opinion pollster are credible or not - I think we can generally agree that it very hard to corrupt or rig IEBC election.

Obiano13:


Forget the fake opinion polls commissioned by Mwizi to save face. Out of the pollsters below IPSOS is likely to be the mos correct, they predicted 2017 better than the rest.



FYI riot police trucks are being ferried to your homeland, the defacto new opposition stronghold of Kalenjin Rift Valley where tantrums are expected next week after your son is politically emasculated. Enyewe Mungu Si Kipmeno!

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-08-02-state-deploys-additional-security-in-parts-of-rift-valley/

Ruto has no chance of fomenting chaos next week. He is headed behind bars at Kamiti Maximum where he can cry for weeks on end with no interruption.

It's very sad that desperate president knowing he is getting liquidated next week want to plunge the country into violence and civil war - then next week they will be crying and begging Ruto to stop Kalenjin - and descent into civil war.

Look like they never learn. They we will hear cries for international community to intervene. Right now Kalenjin are sitting pretty because they just need an hour - to mobilize - it's almost 7 million people to such a fighting force - a civil war will be inevitable in a week.

"“The Kalenjins just like many other
pastoralist communities tend to be militarily organized and can respond to
perceived threats in an organized manner. This rapid and organized reaction is
what most people have confused for pre-planning of violence.”
"Variances of the “Kalenjin
culture” theory aimed to explaining some cultural predilection of Kalenjins to
engage in warfare were offered by a former Rift Valley PPO when, answering the
question whether violence in North Rift was spontaneous or planned. He told the
Commission that the violence was probably spontaneous because “the Kalenjins
require just a war cry... They don’t need to plan. You injure one kalenjin they respond immediately"

Tifa polls Raila 49% Mwizi 41%

If we exclude Discovery Research and Strategic Africa - this how it looks like now.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Tifa polls Raila 49% Mwizi 41%

Kenya not going Nigeria way - Ruto's billboard on what Raila leadership means - the guy can barely stay awake

Choice has never been clear - a brilliant 55yr old going for his maiden run & win - versus a senile 78 yr old going for his 5th (6th if you include 1982 coup) loss

kikuyu1:


As strange as it may seem some people JUST can't get it- AFTER ALL THIS TIME!?

You really try but most of the dudes in here are just too clever to listen.

rvp2018:
Kalenjin - and water canon; What for . Kalenjin are not going to start any war until this over; I dont think you understand how disciplined and well organized our people are. The day Ruto says start. You'll see kenya police shaking in their booths.

Like in 2007 - Kalenjin will take 24-48 hours to overrun police from Mt Elgon to Nakuru town - from West Pokot to Narok - and the army will be deployed on 3rd day - and then civil war will start.

Our people are laughing at those jokes. Those ones should be taken to Kisumu - to deal with stones throwing.

For Kalenjin - you need to prepare KDF - kenya police cannot handle anything - kalenjin are going to deploy millions of warriors who will fight at night - during the day they will be resting - at middle of the night they go for the police - what will those things help you If Kalenjin get 10k guns - Kenya is over and done with. Those 10K guns can hold the KDF until it's split into factions.

Dont even think of waking the monster that is Kalenjin warriors - in the day and age when Ruto has almost cult like following. You just want kenya to join failed states.

At times you exaggerate too much

Didnt Kibaki unleash KDF in Nakuru....when police split into factions?
Kalenjin warriors evicted 0.6M people in 48hrs - something that left even the US totally astonished.
Kibaki had to share power because after KDF from Lanet were deployed - the next was the END of KENYA.
Because once KDF split into factions - we are kaput - and they will because the tribal contours are huge.

Moi and Ruto have managed not to escalate the Kalenjin into a fighting force - except for small section around Pokot.
Can police or KDF beat Pokot - even now - NOPE. They struggle mightly.
When some few SLDF were armed - possibly 1,000 people with 100 guns - Kenya Police failed to contained them.
It took the intervention of KDF - to quash them.

Now imagine if Ruto was to provide kalenjin proper with say 10,000 guns and bullets.
If they did - by simply providing such light weapons.
Kenya is kaput kaput.

The reason is obvious - KDF plus kenya police - at best can raise 25K plus 75K - say 100K fighters(1/4 of them I bet are kalenjin) - Kalenjin the way the community is wired can easily raise a million fighters - rudimentary trained - but with two months of training can become as good as kDF

The power matrices changes completely.

Read Waki report....

“lots of serious coordination and logistics
put in place for the warriors to approach Eldoret town from all directions at the
same time”, noting that in his area he observed over 5,000 in one go and that
they smeared themselves with the blood of the victims they had killed. He said
that friends who were under attack and called him from other areas observed
large bands of between 5,000- 7,000 youths approaching from Burnt Forest.

NOw imagine one front has 7,000 forces (give them guns) - entire KDF has 25K force - significant numbers are kalenjin in that security sector - you'd have to unleash bombs/drones/rockets to even out things.

Kenya police simply collapsed in 48hrs and became IDP centers. They couldnt move because all roads were blocked in 24hours.

NTSA:

At times you exaggerate too much

Ruto is calling for an international press conference tomorrow - like I said - unless you're a slowpoke - keep your passport and your family very intact. What I know for a fact - Ruto cannot and wont be rigged without dire consequence. The dire consequence will be end of kenya as we know. I am not sure what extend he will go - but I know Museveni and Kiir are on board Ruto - and will be very happy to provide arms - if shiet was to hit the fan. Kalenjin warriors are ever prepared - just waiting for the signal from Ruto - to get started - and in an hour - they will transform into a fighting force - that police will not contain.

It's upon Uhuru to accept to be liquidated - otherwise he will just mess kenya. Uhuru had better accept to be bankrupted in Kenya, go to exile abroad and keep the pandora money. He took war to wrong guys - and he has to accept the consequences without taking everyone down with him.

Taking water cannon to Kalenjin land - he must be out of his mind.

For this will be Ethiopia or South Sudan scenario playing out.

rvp2018:
Didnt Kibaki unleash KDF in Nakuru....when police split into factions?
Kalenjin warriors evicted 0.6M people in 48hrs - something that left even the US totally astonished.
Kibaki had to share power because after KDF from Lanet were deployed - the next was the END of KENYA.
Because once KDF split into factions - we are kaput - and they will because the tribal contours are huge.

Moi and Ruto have managed not to escalate the Kalenjin into a fighting force - except for small section around Pokot.
Can police or KDF beat Pokot - even now - NOPE. They struggle mightly.
When some few SLDF were armed - possibly 1,000 people with 100 guns - Kenya Police failed to contained them.
It took the intervention of KDF - to quash them.

Now imagine if Ruto was to provide kalenjin proper with say 10,000 guns and bullets.
If they did - by simply providing such light weapons.
Kenya is kaput kaput.

The reason is obvious - KDF plus kenya police - at best can raise 25K plus 75K - say 100K fighters - Kalenjin the way the community is wired can easily raise a million fighters - rudimentary trained - but with two months of training can become as good as kDF

The power matrices changes completely.

Read Waki report....

“lots of serious coordination and logistics
put in place for the warriors to approach Eldoret town from all directions at the
same time”, noting that in his area he observed over 5,000 in one go and that
they smeared themselves with the blood of the victims they had killed. He said
that friends who were under attack and called him from other areas observed
large bands of between 5,000- 7,000 youths approaching from Burnt Forest.

NOw imagine one front has 7,000 forces (give them guns) - entire KDF has 25K force - significant numbers are kalenjin in that security sector - you'd have to unleash bombs/drones/rockets to even out things.

Kenya police simply collapsed in 48hrs and became IDP centers. They couldnt move because all roads were blocked in 24hours.

Overstatement ...seems you are ignoring the simple concepts of force multiplication ,density of Fire and manuaver warfare.
Kalejin " warriors " would be effective against less armed community /local police stations not the Army.
Not unless the army command is non-existent or disintegrated.

I know KDF capability - fighting outsiders - I know KDF incapability fighting internal enemy like Kalenjin. First no Kalenjin in army will accept to fight their own people pursuing just cause. So first understand you'll get Ethiopia civil war - where Tigray simply desert - with weapons or not.
First police - GSU or APS - simply cannot handle Kalenjin warriors armed with rudimentary weapons - leave alone guns.
KDF the same - if it comes to gun fight - they will run.
So that leave Kenya having to bomb maize fields and forests

Underrate Kalenjin war machine at you own peril. I have seen it up close and personal twice - 92 when I was small boy and 2007 when I was older. How kalenjin can turn one minute from peace to war machinery is incredible.

The British saw it in 1890 to 1906 - just small band of Nandi about 2,000 men - fighting for 15yrs - at some point against entire East Africa Brits army then. And without cold blood murder of Koitatel under the guise of peace negotiation - Nandi would probably have been left alone as independent state.

Again unless you're prepared for a long drawn war - when economy is already sick - then pray for Kenya.

Heck without internal support of GEMA - I think war will end easily - because Kikuyus will join in

In short - Uhuru had better pray we have very free and fair election - if Ruto loses fairly - I dont see any problem.

Sending water cannons hoping to scare kalenjin has to be most laughable thing he has done so far. He needs to sober up, allow Chebukati to hand certificate to Ruto, negotiate bankruptcy proceedings as their wealth has to be nationalized, go to exile in shame and spend the money they have abroad.

I dont see any other peaceful resolution to the stalemate.

NTSA:

Overstatement ...seems you are ignoring the simple concept of force multiplication ,density of Fire and manuaver warfare.