Argungun Fishing Festival. Kebbi Northern Nigeria.

obaaderemi:
Dumbo, Switzerland, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Singapore, hong Kong all are smaller than South Africa but with bigger economies. How many more outliers do you want? Argentina, Chile also. Outlier indeed.

Norway has a smaller GDPppp.... Sweden has a smaller GDPppp.... Hong Kong has a smaller GDPppp... Chile has a smaller GDPppp.... So yeah.....

Also neither of these countries feature in the top 32 largest economies in 2050....excl Argentina and Saudi Arabia

SA is also set to overtake Argentina by 2050 anyway....

jln115:
yeah and PWC used imagination to come up with there report ..... I'm definitely now convinced that a random dude on NL is more qualified and knowledgeable than the 2nd largest professional services network in the world.

I don't think that you are that clueless to understand that the "projection" was made long before the pandemic. I honestly think that you must understand that this pandemic has changed the world significantly, especially regarding the fact that the centre of gravity of world economic power continues shifting eastwards. That's a hard fact that you cannot deny.

If PwC were to make its new projection, it would totally be different than what it has made 3 or 5 years ago.

Or are you saying that as a logical creature we should rely our future on "projection"? Seriously?

rainmon:


I don't think that you are that clueless to understand that the "projection" was made long before the pandemic. I honestly think that you must understand that this pandemic has changed the world significantly, especially regarding the fact that the centre of gravity of world economic power continues shifting eastwards. That's a hard fact that you cannot deny.

If PwC were to make its new projection, it would totally be different than what it has made 3 or 5 years ago.

Or are you saying that as a logical creature we should rely our future on "projection"? Seriously?

And you are overestimating the economic impact covid19 has had on the world economy.....even the South African economy is already projected to grow by 4% in 2021, the JSE has been solid the last couple of month

Also if you didn't know the S&P 500 closed on a record high on Friday .... So much for your flawed opinion thinking economic power is shifting east

jln115:
Norway has a smaller GDPppp.... Sweden has a smaller GDPppp.... Hong Kong has a smaller GDPppp... Chile has a smaller GDPppp.... So yeah.....

Also neither of these countries feature in the top 32 largest economies in 2050....excl Argentina and Saudi Arabia

SA is also set to overtake Argentina by 2050 anyway....

Norway has a bigger GDP nominal....Sweden has a bigger GDP nominal... Hong Kong has a bigger GDP nominal... Chile has a bigger GDP nominal than South Africa.. so yeah..

And projections are just that... Projections. We're still in 2020.

Jln115, how much has your rand fallen against the greenback since January. The Kenya shillings seems to be one of the worst performing currencies in Africa in that period.

obaaderemi:
Norway has a bigger GDP nominal....Sweden has a bigger GDP nominal... Hong Kong has a bigger GDP nominal... Chile has a bigger GDP nominal than South Africa.. so yeah..

And projections are just that... Projections. We're still in 2020.

Do you know the difference between nominal and ppp?

obaaderemi:
Jln115, how much has your rand fallen against the greenback since January. The Kenya shillings seems to be one of the worst performing currencies in Africa in that period.

1.7% since the end of January

jln115:
And you are overestimating the economic impact covid19 has had on the world economy.....even the South African economy is already projected to grow by 4% in 2021, the JSE has been solid the last couple of month

Also if you didn't know the S&P 500 closed on a record high on Friday .... So much for your flawed opinion thinking economic power is shifting east

4% growth is not something we should proud of. Philippines has grown above 6% annually in the last 10 years, but it is still dubbed as the sick man from Asia. The competition in Asia is very fierce and crazy.

While we are here embracing the mediocrity.

South Africa's per capita income was 8 times higher than Indonesia's back in 2000. But now it is neck to neck to Indonesia's, in just over a 20 years span.

If you do not see anything wrong with that, then good luck for the next 20 years.

rainmon:


4% growth is not something we should proud of. Philippines has grown above 6% annually in the last 10 years, but it is still dubbed as the sick man from Asia. The competition in Asia is very fierce and crazy.

While we are here embracing the mediocrity.

South Africa's per capita income was 8 times higher than Indonesia's back in 2000. But now it is neck to neck to Indonesia's, in just over a 20 years span.

If you do not see anything wrong with that, then good luck for the next 20 years.

I never said SA is a beacon of light which all African countries should follow, I simply stated that compared to the rest of Africa SA is decades ahead, and will be until at least 2050, in fact by 2050 SAs GDP per capita would be double that of the Philippines and still be higher than that of Indonesia

jln115:

I never said SA is a beacon of light which all African countries should follow, I simply stated that compared to the rest of Africa SA is decades ahead, and will be until at least 2050, in fact by 2050 SAs GDP per capita would be double that of the Philippines and still be higher than that of Indonesia

That's not a fact, that's just a mere PROJECTION made WAY BEFORE pandemic.

I understand that you are in denial phase, then after some time you will make peace with it then accepting the fact.

With its current growth, asian countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam will outpace SA's per capita income too just in 10 years. Just do your math. Indonesia's per capita income in PPP has already surpassed SA's anyway, and that with its much larger population.

Now I ask you. What are SA main economic drivers? You haven't answered this.

While SA is still a developing country, it never grew beyond 3% in the last 12 years. On the other hand, asian countries keep growing above 5%. No wonder the economic gap between SA and asian countries get narrower yearly.

If you think SA will always be slightly richer than asian countries forever with its current growth, I want to ask your professor how he/she taught you.

rainmon:


That's not a fact, that's just a mere PROJECTION made WAY BEFORE pandemic.

I understand that you are in denial phase, then after some time you will make peace with it then accepting the fact.

With its current growth, asian countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam will outpace SA's per capita income too just in 10 years. Just do your math. Indonesia's per capita income in PPP has already surpassed SA's anyway, and that with its much larger population.

Now I ask you. What are SA main economic drivers? You haven't answered this.

While SA is still a developing country, it never grew beyond 3% in the last 12 years. On the other hand, asian countries keep growing above 5%. No wonder the economic gap between SA and asian countries get narrower yearly.

If you think SA will always be slightly richer than asian countries forever with its current growth, I want to ask your professor how he/she taught you.

In the long term the pandemic has changed very little wrt economic outlooks..........that is the fact you are struggling to grasp!!

And the current growth by Asian countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam ect ect is driven mostly by population growth..........It literally states this exact fact in the PWC report I gave you! SA will continually stay ahead and in fact widen the gap wrt GDP per capita in the foreseeable future.

FYI in the last 10 years the SA economy has grown by over 3% annually twice....get your facts straight before spewing nonsense.

jln115:

In the long term the pandemic has changed very little wrt economic outlooks..........that is the fact you are struggling to grasp!!

And the current growth by Asian countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam ect ect is driven mostly by population growth..........It literally states this exact fact in the PWC report I gave you! SA will continually stay ahead and in fact widen the gap wrt GDP per capita in the foreseeable future.

FYI in the last 10 years the SA economy has grown by over 3% annually twice....get your facts straight before spewing nonsense.

Wow! Congrats for barely growing over 3% TWICE in the last 12 years. Can't wait to see what happen to SA in the next 20 years with that low growth.

In terms of population rate, SA grows faster than Vietnam and Indonesia. That's now how we create wealth as far as I know.

rainmon:


Wow! Congrats for barely growing over 3% TWICE in the last 12 years. Can't wait to see what happen to SA in the next 20 years with that low growth.

In terms of population rate, SA grows faster than Vietnam and Indonesia. That's now how we create wealth as far as I know.

Population growth Indonesia 2020 - 2050 = 11%
Vietnam = 14%
South Africa = 6.7%

So tell me how did you come to the conclusion that SAs population is growing faster than that of Indonesia and Vietnam??

Also if you want to see what growth the SAn economy will have in the next 20 years just check the report I gave you

jln115:

Population growth Indonesia 2020 - 2050 = 11%
Vietnam = 14%
South Africa = 6.7%

So tell me how did you come to the conclusion that SAs population is growing faster than that of Indonesia and Vietnam??

Also if you want to see what growth the SAn economy will have in the next 20 years just check the report I gave you

Are you kidding or are you just trying to save your face?

Is that how you measure population growth rate?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/344rank.html

I am not sure if I am exchanging messages with an educated adult or not at the moment. One of the keys to success is to acknowledge own's weakness then fix it. Being denial and defensive should be avoided because it is not productive.

rainmon:


Are you kidding or are you just trying to save your face?

Is that how you measure population growth rate?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/344rank.html

I am not sure if I am exchanging messages with an educated adult or not at the moment. One of the keys to success is to acknowledge own's weakness then fix it. Being denial and defensive should be avoided because it is not productive.

SMH.... that's just for 2020...countries like Indonesia, Vietnam ect ect are expected to have a much faster growth rate over the next 30 years than SA, SAs population growth on the other hand is expected to slow in the next 30 years to 0.3% pa in fact....so yeah the SA population is expected to grow much slower than the countries you mentioned..... Just check the 2050 population projections vs current population to see for yourself..... Its simple math, even you should be able to do it.

jln115:
SMH.... that's just for 2020...countries like Indonesia, Vietnam ect ect are expected to have a much faster growth rate over the next 30 years than SA, SAs population growth on the other hand is expected to slow in the next 30 years to 0.3% pa in fact....so yeah the SA population is expected to grow much slower than the countries you mentioned..... Just check the 2050 population projections vs current population to see for yourself..... Its simple math, even you should be able to do it.

Do you even understand what you are talking about?

Good luck for your 3% at best growth achieved TWICE in 12 years while asian countries keep growing minimum 5% yearly!

rainmon:


Do you even understand what you are talking about?

Good luck for your 3% at best growth achieved TWICE in 12 years while asian countries keep growing minimum 5% yearly!

well considering among other things I'm also an investment analyst with 2 degrees and currently completing my CFA..... I sure hope so hey

Now, let's compare SA's economic growth to asian countries which have comparable HDI.

Bangladesh GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.614)

2015: 6.8%
2016: 7.2%
2017: 7.8%
2018: 8.0%
2019: 7.8%

Vietnam GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.693)

2015: 6.9%
2016: 6.7%
2017: 6.9%
2018: 7%
2019: 7%

Philippines GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.712)

2015: 6.0%
2016: 6.9%
2017: 6.6%
2018: 6.2%
2019: 5.9%

Indonesia GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.707)

2015: 5%
2016: 5%
2017: 5%
2018: 5.2%
2019: 5%

South Africa GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.705)

2015: 1.2%
2016: 0.4%
2017: 1.4%
2018: 0.8%
2019: 0.1%

SA's economy has been bleeding even before the pandemic, but someone here is still in delusional believe that his country would still be slightly forever richer than asian countries.

In 2020, SA is expected to contract by -8% which means your economy size would fall to its 2006-2007 level.

He even never mentioned his country's main economic drivers.

As for the population growth, South Africa has produced more babies in percentage compared to its asian competitors.

From World Bank
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2019&locations=BD-VN-ID-ZA&start=2010&view=chart

But he insisted to accept "a projection" rather than to see the factual data.

rainmon:
Now, let's compare SA's economic growth to asian countries which have comparable HDI.

Bangladesh GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.614)

2015: 6.8%
2016: 7.2%
2017: 7.8%
2018: 8.0%
2019: 7.8%

Vietnam GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.693)

2015: 6.9%
2016: 6.7%
2017: 6.9%
2018: 7%
2019: 7%

Philippines GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.712)

2015: 6.0%
2016: 6.9%
2017: 6.6%
2018: 6.2%
2019: 5.9%

Indonesia GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.707)

2015: 5%
2016: 5%
2017: 5%
2018: 5.2%
2019: 5%

South Africa GDP Growth Rate 2015 - 2019 (HDI: 0.705)

2015: 1.2%
2016: 0.4%
2017: 1.4%
2018: 0.8%
2019: 0.1%

SA's economy has been bleeding even before the pandemic, but someone here is still in delusional believe that his country would still be slightly forever richer than asian countries.

In 2020, SA is expected to contract by -8% which means your economy size would fall to its 2006-2007 level.

He even never mentioned his country's main economic drivers.

As for the population growth, South Africa has produced more babies in percentage compared to its asian competitors.

From World Bank
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2019&locations=BD-VN-ID-ZA&start=2010&view=chart

But he insisted to accept "a projection" rather than to see the factual data.

You are bringing up irrelevant statistics since I never argued that the SAn economy was growing faster than the above mentioned countries, simply stated that per capita SA will be widening the gap....which makes sense since our population is smaller and it doesn't take such a high growth rate to increase our GDP per capita as it is for larger populations.... Hopefully the pic would help you understand

jln115:
Do you know the difference between nominal and ppp?

Knew the difference before you were old enough to wipe your bum.

jln115:
1.7% since the end of January

The Kenyan shillings is about 10%, worse than naira. Well, I guess you are still in recession as usual.

jln115:
SMH.... that's just for 2020...countries like Indonesia, Vietnam ect ect are expected to have a much faster growth rate over the next 30 years than SA, SAs population growth on the other hand is expected to slow in the next 30 years to 0.3% pa in fact....so yeah the SA population is expected to grow much slower than the countries you mentioned..... Just check the 2050 population projections vs current population to see for yourself..... Its simple math, even you should be able to do it.

This is not true. Vietnam is not expected to grow faster than South Africa population wise.

obaaderemi:
Knew the difference before you were old enough to wipe your bum.

Well if you know then why are you using nominal GDP when it is generally accepted that GDP ppp is a more accurate comparison between economies??

jln115:
You are bringing up irrelevant statistics since I never argued that the SAn economy was growing faster than the above mentioned countries, simply stated that per capita SA will be widening the gap....which makes sense since our population is smaller and it doesn't take such a high growth rate to increase our GDP per capita as it is for larger populations.... Hopefully the pic would help you understand

I have asked you many times what South Africa's main economic drivers that would make it will be widening the gap to asian countries. If your argument is "oh it's because SA population grows smaller than asian countries". No, it is not. In fact, SA grows faster population wise.

Just because you have smaller population doesn't mean that larger countries are uncapable to have larger per capita income. Ever heard of China? A country with persistent high growth for at least 3 decades?

If SA continues to grow within the range 0%-1%, it means its economic drivers are not working at all.

obaaderemi:
This is not true. Vietnam is not expected to grow faster than South Africa population wise.

Vietnam's growth rate is expected to be slightly higher although still very close tto that of SA.......however they have a much higher populations hence Vietnam's population will still grow considerably quicker as 1% population growth in SA is much less than 1% in Vietnam

rainmon:


I have asked you many times what South Africa's main economic drivers that would make it will be widening the gap to asian countries. If your argument is "oh it's because SA population grows smaller than asian countries". No, it is not. In fact, SA grows faster population wise.

Just because you have smaller population doesn't mean that larger countries are uncapable to have larger per capita income. Ever heard of China? A country with persistent high growth for at least 3 decades?

If SA continues to grow within the range 0%-1%, it means its economic drivers are not working at all.

1. SA does not grow faster population wise, hence I told you to go do the math......also Larger population means you need higher annual GDP growth to sustain the same annual GDP per capita growth than a smaller population........literally simple mathematics!!

2. Are you saying you are right and PWC is wrong?

3. China does not have a large GDP per capita, in fact its only 73rd in the world

4. SA is already projected to grow by 4% in 2021

obaaderemi:
The Kenyan shillings is about 10%, worse than naira. Well, I guess you are still in recession as usual.

yeah just like Nigeria

jln115:

1. SA does not grow faster population wise, hence I told you to go do the math......also Larger population means you need higher annual GDP growth to sustain the same annual GDP per capita growth than a smaller population........literally simple mathematics!!

2. Are you saying you are right and PWC is wrong?

3. China does not have a large GDP per capita, in fact its only 73rd in the world

4. SA is already projected to grow by 4% in 2021

Can you show a link supporting your claim that South Africa will grow by 4% in 2021? That seems like a tall order. According to afdb, your GDP growth next year is 1.8%

jln115:
Vietnam's growth rate is expected to be slightly higher although still very close tto that of SA.......however they have a much higher populations hence Vietnam's population will still grow considerably quicker as 1% population growth in SA is much less than 1% in Vietnam

According to your own chart, South Africa and Vietnam have population growth projections of 0.5% while Vietnam economic growth will outstrip South Africa's. That's what I referred to!