Though 2019 general elections is about 28 months away, political gladiators have started re-alignment processes. Crucial to this process is the division of the country into 6 regions. Though it is expected that by 2019, the population of Nigeria will be between 190-20million, however based on the 2015 general elections only 28 million people voted. Based on this, I did some analysis to see the importance of every region. Number of voters in 2019 I presume should be less than or similar to 2015. Just like we have in America, we can say that Nigeria is a 2-party country. Based on the 2015 general elections, SW region and NC region had a combine voting strength of 30%, NW region had 30%, SS region had 18%, NE had 13% while SE had 9%. Of the total PDP votes, 14.28% came from SW, 19.33% from SE, 13.46% from NC(David mark-senate president region), 36.97% from SS(GEJ region), 9.71% from NW(VP sambo region) and 6.24% from NE. A cross examination of APC showed that the SW gave them 15.77%(VP Osinbajo region),NC-15.63%(APC zoned the senate presidency to this region prior to the general elections), NE offered 18.46% while the NW where PMB/GMB hail from gave him 46.13% of his total vote. (SE-1.29% and SS-2.71% )-This must have been the reason PMB referred to these region as less than 5% region. Though, both region never supported his bid, PMB the president of Nigeria not a region. The 2015 general election was not only divided based on region, it also showed lopsidedness in the voting pattern in 4 out of the 6 regions. Analysis on voting pattern in the 6 region showed than SW (APC-57.2%, PDP-42.8% ), SE ( APC-7.4%, PDP-92.6%, ) NC (APC-58.4%, PDP-41.6% ), SS (APC-8.2%, PDP-91.8% ), NW (APC-85.2%, PDP-14.6% ), NE (APC-78.1%, PDP-21.9% ). While this lopsided voting pattern was glaring in 4 regions, both the SW and NC were more of neutral. The voting lopsidedness is quite surprising considering the fact that APC had 2 sitting governors in SS and 1 in SE.

Some points must be noted.
1. Come 2019, the president will most likely come from the NW and must be supported by both the NC and SW. These three regions can combine to a devastating effect, as the hold approximately 60% of the country's voting strength.
2. Any other region that wants to win the presidency without the help of NW, must have the full support of SW, SE, NC, SS and NE, why this sounds sweet to the ear, we all know that SE and SW are not friends thus they wont likely unite come 2019.
This brings us to the realisation that NC, SW and NW are important in Nigeria politics. Why I wont give statistics to back elections from 1999-2011, we can make some inference. In 1999, OBJ been a friend of the north due to the perceived loyalty to the Yaraduas had the full support of the NW, NC, SW and NE from where his running mate came from. In 2003, OBJ little performance especially in the North endeared him more to them as they even kicked against their son, GMB. While the SE voted for their son in the election.

Riding on OBJ's popularity and the fact that their son was to be the next president, PDP had the full backing of the SW, NC, NW and SS because their son, GEJ was to be the VP. In 2011 while still riding on the political sagacity of OBJ in the north, GEJ loyalty to the dying Yaradua, the NW overwhelmingly voted for GEJ and were supported by SW, SS,NC,SE. More of GMB CPC votes then came from NE, partly SW, NW and NC which was not enough to displace GEJ. However in 2013 Nigerian politics took a new dimension when CPC from NW and part of NC, ACN from SW, ANPP from NE and the then new PDP joined together to form the ruling APC. The greatest undoing of PDP was in 2014, when OBJ a man with a great influence in the North openly denounced PDP after GEJ refused to honor his agreement by declaring his intention to contest the 2015 elections. A political mistake Mimiko also committed in the just concluded ondo polls. This points to the fact that zoning is quite important in Nigeria politics

Why PDP continue to feel the effect of the 2015 loss, APC has continued to strength its hold on two regions that certainly plays the key role of been the spoilers or determinants. By giving the NC the senate presidency and with Abubakar Bukola Saraki(popularly called ABS) as the SP, you are rest assured that come 2019, the NC will stay behind APC or any political alignment that can guarantee senate presidency for the North Central. In the SW, APC has started its consolidation by winning Ondo with victories likely in 2018, we can say that the SW will still be behind APC

Too early for all this.

Now much have been made of Atiku and Obi, and PMB dropping Osinbajo for Kalu. Political calculations however does not favour any, it is suffice to say that status quo won't change. OBJ's influence in the NW wil work against Atiku, leaving Nigerians with little or no option than to continue with this present party and formation till 2023. The economy is not working, inflation is high with little or no assurance that things will get better. While the coming together of SS, SE and NE without either SW or NC cannot save the country from the hand of APC and PMB. With apparently now way out, the best way is for youth to use their own political power to get the best of our leaders

Just like we did making NCC reverse or put on hold the proposed hike in data prices, its time youth from the south and north rise together, using the internet to always question and demand for more accountability from our leaders. Though the political calculation may not favour us, but we can form a political voice that will be impossible to resist.

Guy you need some sleep.

KingsleyJohn:
Guy you need some sleep.

No a dose of diclofenac will do you some good.