phuck_NL:

To those of you praying for Yaradua to die, : Don't you know that this may spell doom for the nation. If he dies, and there is chaos concerning his replacement, dont you think the MILITARY MIGHT USE THIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO COME BACK. Nigeria is on the verge of something really serious here

I am of the opinion that the Nigerian millitary lost it's strength during the OBJ administration and will certainly not be unitied enough to stage a comeback. I do hope Yar adua is removed or dies in office. That way, we loose the fascade of peace we have been living under for a period now and are forced to finally DEAL with the problem we have. When I say the problem, I refer to the PASSIVE state in which the Nigerian people have been living in for decades now.

According to the 1999 constitution section 145 and 146,the VP is suppose to take over as acting president in the event that the president is incapacited but the problem here is the clause that states that for this to happen,the President would need to ve written to the senate and the house of rep that he can no longer perform his duty as president,only then can the VC take charge.I think this where the northerners are cashing in,they will make sure the fool dies without officially handing over to his Vice.The way it is,this country is sitting on a keg of gunpowder,am even surprise that some politicians from the SW are not saying anything to strengthen Jo's stand,after they caused it,they had better not use that sit on the fence strategy they used during the war before they were bullied by the north to tacitly support them.I see the North setting a bad preceedence and Mr VP had better be firm,he is too dam docile for my liking but for the sake of the sacredness of the constitution he must be the next person in line,I know Yaradua won't see past this year,the greedy bastard might be dead for all we know.

According to the 1999 constitution section 145 and 146,the VP is suppose to take over as acting president in the event that the president is incapacited but the problem here is the clause that states that for this to happen,the President would need to ve written to the senate and the house of rep that he can no longer perform his duty as president,only then can the VC take charge.I think this where the northerners are cashing in,they will make sure the fool dies without officially handing over to his Vice.The way it is,this country is sitting on a keg of gunpowder,am even surprise that some politicians from the SW are not saying anything to strengthen Jo's stand,after they caused it,they had better not use that sit on the fence strategy they used during the war before they were bullied by the north to tacitly support them.I see the North setting a bad preceedence and Mr VP had better be firm,he is too dam docile for my liking but for the sake of the sacredness of the constitution he must be the next person in line,I know Yaradua won't see past this year,the greedy bastard might be dead for all we know.

According to the 1999 constitution section 145 and 146,the VP is suppose to take over as acting president in the event that the president is incapacited but the problem here is the clause that states that for this to happen,the President would need to ve written to the senate and the house of rep that he can no longer perform his duty as president,only then can the VC take charge.I think this where the northerners are cashing in,they will make sure the fool dies without officially handing over to his Vice.The way it is,this country is sitting on a keg of gunpowder,am even surprise that some politicians from the SW are not saying anything to strengthen Jo's stand,after they caused it,they had better not use that sit on the fence strategy they used during the war before they were bullied by the north to tacitly support them.I see the North setting a bad preceedence and Mr VP had better be firm,he is too dam docile for my liking but for the sake of the sacredness of the constitution he must be the next person in line,I know Yaradua won't see past this year,the greedy bastard might be dead for all we know.

According to the 1999 constitution section 145 and 146,the VP is suppose to take over as acting president in the event that the president is incapacited but the problem here is the clause that states that for this to happen,the President would need to ve written to the senate and the house of rep that he can no longer perform his duty as president,only then can the VC take charge.I think this where the northerners are cashing in,they will make sure the fool dies without officially handing over to his Vice.The way it is,this country is sitting on a keg of gunpowder,am even surprise that some politicians from the SW are not saying anything to strengthen Jo's stand,after they caused it,they had better not use that sit on the fence strategy they used during the war before they were bullied by the north to tacitly support them.I see the North setting a bad preceedence and Mr VP had better be firm,he is too dam docile for my liking but for the sake of the sacredness of the constitution he must be the next person in line,I know Yaradua won't see past this year,the greedy bastard might be dead for all we know.

Jesus

Folks do not allow anybody decieve you. The President's letter to Senate is only needed while he is alive because the definition of incapacitated in medical/legal context is very complicated in this situation. However if we have a very patriotic NASS or FEC they will not allow the greed and ambition of one man trump the future of 150million people.

However if the President passes away, there is no need for any resignation letter from a dead man. The CJN will have a duty to swear in Jonathan immediately.

Talking about Jonathan. There is nothing he can physically do while the President is alive because he can be roped into a palace coup and tried for treason if he is seen as trying to oust his boss without the backing of the law and full political will behind him. Trust me if there is anything good about Jonathan it is scenarios like these.
The least Jonathan can get from this battle with the way he has approached it is to remain the same, otherwise he will be triumphant.

I also think Yar'adua has passed the threshold of being fit to come back to power because otherwise certain things will not happen. Jonathan will not be asked to sign a resignation letter, OBJ will not move to Abuja for no reason, neither will Ibori move to Dubai as claimed for no reason.

I think all I can say is while we do not know how this will play out, I think the days of President Yar'adua are over in Aso Rock.

Those who say Jonathan Goodluck is docile or a mumu are making a tragic mistake. . . The North is acting strange, precisely because they know that the VP is a serious mountain.
I will not be defending the above, but have made the statement so that all interested folk can dig and find facts on Jonathan Goodluck's support base; anything else, na yarning dust .

here's how i see the situation, any of the following are options:

1) The northern oligarchs parley with General Dambazau (who is from kano) and happens to be the chief of army staff to stage a coup and the reason they'd give to the international community (IC) will be "to save nigeria from anarchy and organize/conduct fresh elections" that way, the north will be in power and when the army organizes fresh elections, they'll still produce a northerner.

2) I heavily doubt that northerners will want a situation where jonathan is president and a northerner is VP, so they'll 'as stated' force his resignation which is obviously a bad precedent not to mention risky or they'll simply let him stay in power with many conditions (subject to betrayal) if they let him stay in power, they'll circle him like a bunch of wolves looking at fresh antelope meat. they'll control him firmly and being jonathan who is not exactly a suave politician, he'll remain docile.

3) Or they could just do what they're doing now and pray yar'adua doesn't die so he can remain in the hospital while president and come back when he's better (only for another episode to follow)

4) They could allow Turai to finish out his term as Ibori promised her or they could get a "turai approved" northern candidate, one of her in-laws obviously, more likely to be yuguda to finish out yar'adua's term in which case, NASS would mandate a special election for the office of the president and the PDP would install yuguda as president. This would certainly appease her since she seems to be very powerful (she can even sack a minister of petrolium), i doubt turai can make a good president, she would be the cause of much mockery, and i think some forces wouldn't let that happen to begin with. unless everybody in nigeria has become an inactive apathetic spectator.

The “North” has yet to change its strategy in over 20 years. Attributing it all now to some supposed fear of Jonathan “the proven” BRICK of a VP is ludicrous.

Now, if Jonathan were to rise up tomorrow to, at least take a different stance than that of his boss, I bet the whole nation will be shocked. But till then, the man is as comatose as his boss has been for the past 2 and more years and it ain’t gonna do any group, any much group to align itself with him. Even if the president decides to step down tomorrow, there is really not much evidence to show that his VP will be any different considering the two have been at the TOP two seats of the nation for over 2 years with nothing worthy coming from that end to this day.

If I was from his tribe, and there was the chance to swap him, I would do that in a heart beat.

Inasmuch as i will like to agree with you, i will not blame Yaradua nor Jonathan, cos they were handpicked by OBJ and his cohorts
And i think this is one of the reason why people shd know that OBJ was a useless leader.

Fhemmmy:

Inasmuch as i will like to agree with you, i will not blame Yaradua nor Jonathan, cos they were handpicked by OBJ and his cohorts
And i think this is one of the reason why people shd know that OBJ was a useless leader.

Please, can we please stop with this “OBJ is to blame” TRIP we have been on for the past couple of years. It has been over 2 and half years and these men have successfully held a whole nation hostage. 

Obasanjo is not the one flying out for medical care now, it is all Yar Adua and his minions.

Obasanjo is not the one holding the country back from 6000MW of electricity this December, it is all Yar Adua and his minions.

Obasanjo is not the one holding the Nigerian Health Care System back in the last century, that is all Yar adua and his minions.

Etc.
So  can we please CUT THE BULL?

gadogado:

here's how i see the situation, any of the following are options:

1) The northern oligarchs parley with General Dambazau (who is from kano) and happens to be the chief of army staff to stage a coup and the reason they'd give to the international community (IC) will be "to save nigeria from anarchy and organize/conduct fresh elections" that way, the north will be in power and when the army organizes fresh elections, they'll still produce a northerner.

2) I heavily doubt that northerners will want a situation where jonathan is president and a northerner is VP, so they'll 'as stated' force his resignation which is obviously a bad precedent not to mention risky or they'll simply let him stay in power with many conditions (subject to betrayal) if they let him stay in power, they'll circle him like a bunch of wolves looking at fresh antelope meat. they'll control him firmly and being jonathan who is not exactly a suave politician, he'll remain docile.

3) Or they could just do what they're doing now and pray yar'adua doesn't die so he can remain in the hospital while president and come back when he's better (only for another episode to follow)

4) They could allow Turai to finish out his term as Ibori promised her or they could get a "turai approved" northern candidate, one of her in-laws obviously, more likely to be yuguda to finish out yar'adua's term in which case, NASS would mandate a special election for the office of the president and the PDP would install yuguda as president. This would certainly appease her since she seems to be very powerful (she can even sack a minister of petrolium), i doubt turai can make a good president, she would be the cause of much mockery, and i think some forces wouldn't let that happen to begin with. unless everybody in nigeria has become an inactive apathetic spectator.

The North see's a Jonathan Goodluck presidency as the last nail in the coffin of their hegemony, that is why they are panicking and thinking up these very foolish scenario's. Each of those scenario's will see to the dismemberment of Nigeria, yet Northern politicians love oil to the point that they have been in such a headlong dash that they abandoned development of their homes, which have now been taken over by 10 million impoverished almajiri's and Boko Haram. They have grown fat (and seemingly stupid) on oil, are they planning to eat sand now?

I wish i cld do that, but here is why it is hard for me to cut the bull.
If the people has been allowed to vote, and not just handpicked some lay dumb idiots.
But i will listen to you sha, small though.
YarAdua has been sick before even becoming the president of Nigeria and we all know it, so how to deal with the problem he will leave behind is what people needs to worry about, cos chance of yaradua surviving the illness is not high at all.
But then, i think it is time we face reality and know that we dont have a peaceful nation like we have always been trying to deceive ourselves

Kobojunkie:

The “North” has yet to change its strategy in over 20 years. Attributing it all now to some supposed fear of Jonathan “the proven” BRICK of a VP is ludicrous.

Now, if Jonathan were to rise up tomorrow to, at least take a different stance than that of his boss, I bet the whole nation will be shocked. But till then, the man is as comatose as his boss has been for the past 2 and more years and it ain’t gonna do any group, any much group to align itself with him. Even if the president decides to step down tomorrow, there is really not much evidence to show that his VP will be any different considering the two have been at the TOP two seats of the nation for over 2 years with nothing worthy coming from that end to this day.

If I was from his tribe, and there was the chance to swap him, I would do that in a heart beat.

Stupid.

Beaf:

The North see's a Jonathan Goodluck presidency as the last nail in the coffin of their hegemony, that is why they are panicking and thinking up these very foolish scenario's. Each of those scenario's will see to the dismemberment of Nigeria, yet Northern politicians love oil to the point that they have been in such a headlong dash that they abandoned development of their homes, which have now been taken over by 10 million impoverished almajiri's and Boko Haram. They have grown fat (and seemingly stupid) on oil, are they planning to eat sand now?

I guess we have to get ready for the fun to begin cos:
1. Yaradua probably wont survive the illness
2. Jonathan will be sworn in and the North will be ready to kill themselves.

1) The northern oligarchs parley with General Dambazau (who is from kano) and happens to be the chief of army staff to stage a coup and the reason they'd give to the international community (IC) will be "to save nigeria from anarchy and organize/conduct fresh elections" that way, the north will be in power and when the army organizes fresh elections, they'll still produce a northerner.

You take this from me. If the north or the military stage a coup. We would declear a new republic out of Nigeria.
Please quote me on this. We would leave the federation call Nigeria. We want every member of the Nigeria army of Northern origin, do not attempt a coup if Yar Adua dies.

Look there are 20 state in the south to 15 in the north. We have more men in the Nigeria army than your 15 state we would kill most of You. We also would have the backing of the international community. The whole world is say NO MILITARY govt again in Nigeria.

We ask every member of the Nigeria army of the south Niger benue area to resist any attempt by men of the northern origin to stage a coup.
If by charge they do, they should throw thier loyality to a New nation south of the Niger and Benue River. Which would be decleared.

It is important to note, that the constitution is clear that if the president is medically incapable, that the vice president should be sown in as President. And Yar Adua at this possible is said to be medical incapable and it is fair that the constitution be observed at this point.

@ beaf

I dont think the north sees jonathan's ascension to the presidency as "last nail on the coffin" because the north has a combined larger population than the south, furthermore, the north is more unified than the south where theres "yoruba and igbo" that contend with each other, the north has hausa/fulani as the main power block. So in a democratic nigeria, the north will always have a slight edge over the south in terms of sheer numbers as it relates to electioneering.
The issue here is that the north doesn't want to lose power without completing its 8 year power rotation cycle. Thats why some people are panicing!!and want jonathan out. I prefer Jonathan to finish yar'adua's term so that it sets a good precedent (that the constitution reigns supreme) and then come 2011, they should put another northerner. Its a loss for the north but thats what happens when you gamble on a sick man and let yourself get tricked by obasanjo.

Fhemmmy:

I wish i cld do that, but here is why it is hard for me to cut the bull.
If the people has been allowed to vote, and not just handpicked some lay dumb idiots.
But i will listen to you sha, small though.
YarAdua has been sick before even becoming the president of Nigeria and we all know it, so how to deal with the problem he will leave behind is what people needs to worry about, cos chance of yaradua surviving the illness is not high at all.
But then, i think it is time we face reality and know that we dont have a peaceful nation like we have always been trying to deceive ourselves

The reality of the situation is that Obasanjo is no longer in the picture. He hasn’t been for a while and will likely stay away from this “STAIN”. I mean, think about it, who in their right minds would want to align themselves with the current government? Even his own party is trying to distance itself from him in every way possible.

If the Nothern “terror” decides to rise up against a Jonathan government in an unconstitutional way, you only need the house to shut such a move down as many times as it needs to, even if commotion follows. The problem here is NOT the NORTH but a lack of confidence on the part of those who are not of the NORTH.
We can sit here cooking up fictional stories of how it will all go down but the fact is this is not all about the NORTH but that the SOUTH ( SOUTH-SOUTH, SOUTH-WEST, and SOUTH-EAST) has absolutely NO CONFIDENCE in its own leaders. Trying to make it seem the "NORTH" is the great EVIL is not going to solve anything.

Beaf,
your estimation of Jonathan is grossly exaggerated.
i challenge you to reveal the backing he supposedly has.
when i think of he and yar adua at the helm of affairs in the country, i just shudder.
how such inept, dull and clueless men found themselves to the seat of power in a country as strategic and combustible like ours baffles me.
one of the Nigerian daily days back wrote a profile on him labelling him an academic scholar,i almost fainted.
Jonathan, an academic scholar??
i wrote the editor asking him never to use such oxymoron in future.
The Nigerian education system deserves a funeral in that case.
the man should just play along with whatever the likes of Ibori and Saraki cook up in the name of a plan.
He does not have the heart nor the brain for such strategic positions.
to make matters worse,his hands are not even clean.
No sane person can panic over Jonathan.
the northern elite are panicking over their individual selfish interests.each is trying to position himself for the looting bazaar that lies ahead.
in all this,we the masses do not factor into the equation.
It is a shame because the barbarians are at the gate again.

mbulela:

Beaf,
your estimation of Jonathan is grossly exaggerated.
i challenge you to reveal the backing he supposedly has.
when i think of he and yar adua at the helm of affairs in the country, i just shudder.
how such inept, dull and clueless men found themselves to the seat of power in a country as strategic and combustible like ours baffles me.
one of the Nigerian daily days back wrote a profile on him labelling him an academic scholar,i almost fainted.
Jonathan, an academic scholar??
The Nigerian education system deserves a funeral in that case.
the man should just play along with whatever the likes of Ibori and Saraki cook up in the name of a plan.
He does not have the heart nor the brain for such strategic positions.
to make matters worse,his hands are not even clean.
No sane person can panic over Jonathan.
the northern elite are panicking over their individual selfish interests.each is trying to position himself for the looting bazaar that lies ahead.
in all this,we the masses do not factor into the equation.
It is a shame because the barbarians are at the gate again.

You have 75% of the answer. The remaining 25% lies in "docile" Jonathan Goodluck's backing. . .

so do we agree that he is docile and more importantly that his docility is not a strategic intent but an inherent ineptitude or cluelessness, better still a result of being out of his depth.

mbulela:

so do we agree that he is docile and more importantly that his docility is not a strategic intent but an inherent ineptitude or cluelessness, better still a result of being out of his depth.

No we don't I was being sarcastic. He is shy and quiet, but certainly not docile. He overcame many powerful enemies to get where he is today, including James Ibori, Obong Attah, Peter Odili (all real roughnecks). James Ibori is now reported to have based himself in Dubai to to marshall the anti-Jonathan forces.

Beaf:

No we don't I was being sarcastic. He is shy and quiet, but certainly not docile. He overcame many powerful enemies to get where he is today, including James Ibori, Obong Attah, Peter Odili (all real roughnecks). James Ibori is now reported to have based himself in Dubai to to marshall the anti-Jonathan forces.

He did? I thought it was all Obasanjo's handiwork? Let me get this right , Yar adua was installed by Obasanjo, but the VP did not benefit from the same?

bros,
you are exaggerating matter.
Jonathan did not do anything to outsmart the people you mentioned.
Obasanjo (in his own wisdom?) picked him.
don't try to rewrite history.
the man is inept and all other adjectives i used in my previous post.

your second point on Ibori falls within the framework of the 75% you ascribed to me earlier.

Beaf,
pls lets steer clear of the insults and discuss as adults (i know they were not aimed at me but still, )

so kindly respond to my post.

mbulela:

bros,
you are exaggerating matter.
Jonathan did not do anything to outsmart the people you mentioned.
Obasanjo (in his own wisdom?) picked him.
don't try to rewrite history.
the man is inept and all other adjectives i used in my previous post.

your second point on Ibori falls within the framework of the 75% you ascribed to me earlier.

No, the only thing that applies from what you said earlier is that his hands are not clean. Yes, there are strong allegations that he's got dirty hands. . . But he is far from docile.

There was a lot of intrigue and power play that saw him become VP instead of Odili, the same power play saw his house bombed by political thugs.

Kobojunkie:

How in the world did I put words in your mouth there?  Stating that I thought Obasanjo did it all is putting words in your mouth? Man, you need to get a life , if you don't have one. If you do not agree, all you need to is state that you are not of the school of thought that Obasanjo installed the guys we have today, rather than go off ranting about how miserable you are, thinking you insult me by doing just that. Jeeezzz!!!

Asking people questions now equates to making a statement?
Go back, check the tone off your writing. . . and jump off a cliff.

Beaf:

No, the only thing that applies from what you said earlier is that his hands are not clean. Yes, there are strong allegations that he's got dirty hands. . . But he is far from docile.

There was a lot of intrigue and power play that saw him become VP instead of Odili, the same power play saw his house bombed by political thugs.

this is where we depart.
you and i have diametrically opposing view of the man Goodluck Jonathan.
i think you are ascribing too much intelligence to that man.
there was no power play.
i simply think that he was handpicked as Odili's hands were way too dirty and his heart too greedy for the position.
well, only time will tell who is correct.
but i am convinced that the man Jonathan is a docile,inept, clueless vice president.
you have not made any effort to convince me otherwise.

mbulela:

this is where we depart.
you and i have diametrically opposing view of the man Goodluck Jonathan.
i think you are ascribing too much intelligence to that man.
there was no power play.
i simply think that he was handpicked as Odili's hands were way too dirty and his heart too greedy for the position.
well, only time will tell who is correct.
but i am convinced that the man Jonathan is a docile,inept, clueless vice president.
you have not made any effort to convince me otherwise.

I haven't ascribed intelligence to him (even though he is). No all I'm saying is that he isn't docile; rather he is a serious mountain.
As to not convincing you, 90% of the position comes from the depths of ND politics, hence I stated my intention not to defend my words; however, I have left several hints (especially in the post you quoted last).