[size=14pt]FACTBOX-Potential candidates for Nigeria's next leader[/size]
Thu Dec 24, 2009 12:43pm GMT

By Tume Ahemba

LAGOS, Dec 24 (Reuters) - President Umaru Yar'Adua has been absent from Nigeria for more than a month receiving medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, prompting speculation about what would happen should he become unable to govern.

The 58-year-old leader was flown to a clinic in Jeddah in late November after complaining of chest pains and has been diagnosed with acute pericarditis, an inflammation of the membrane around the heart that can restrict normal beating.

Presidency officials have said Yar'Adua is responding to treatment, while the government has said state business is going on normally, with Vice President Goodluck Jonathan overseeing weekly meetings of the cabinet, or Federal Executive Council.

But pressure from the opposition and parts of civil society has been mounting for Yar'Adua either to undergo a formal medical test to prove his fitness to govern, or resign. The cabinet has dismissed the calls. [ID:nGEE5B11W4]

Vice President Jonathan would take over if the president resigns or becomes permanently incapable of discharging his functions, according to the constitution.

But there would then be fierce competition within the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) for the position of vice president to replace Jonathan as his deputy would be the de facto PDP presidential candidate in polls in 2011.

Jonathan, a southerner, is unlikely to stand in 2011 because of an unwritten agreement among the political elite that the presidency rotates between the north and south every two terms.

Following are some of names being mentioned within the PDP and in the Nigerian media as possible successors to Yar'Adua:

ALIYU GUSAU

A retired general and former National Security Adviser to Yar'Adua's direct predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo, who remains a powerful kingmaker in the ruling party.

Gusau was the main contender alongside Yar'Adua to be the PDP ruling party candidate in the 2007 polls, coming second in the primaries. He is seen as a favourite among powerful northern military generals.

SULE LAMIDO

Populist governor of the backwater state of Jigawa, Lamido was foreign minister under Obasanjo. He is said to enjoy the support of the former president and of current Vice President Jonathan, whom he backed to power.

But analysts say Lamido is seen by his northern kinsmen as politically weak and too heavily influenced by Obasanjo, unpopular for foisting Yar'Adua on the nation despite knowing of his health problems.

ABBA RUMA

Minister for Agriculture and a confidant of Yar'Adua since his days as governor of the remote northwestern state of Katsina, Ruma was a former education minister under Obasanjo.

Abba is an influential member of the Yar'Adua's close-knit inner circle, which includes powerful First Lady Turai Yar'Adua. He is seen as one of the candidates most likely to protect the interests of the incumbent's closest allies.

BUKOLA SARAKI

Ambitious governor of the central state of Kwara, Saraki is another close confidant of Yar'Adua. He is a trained medical doctor and was director of Societe Generale Bank (Nigeria) for 10 years up to 2000, when he served as special assistant to the president on budgetary matters.

Saraki, who is serving his second and final term, is the chairman of the Governors' Forum, a powerful grouping which is influential in selecting presidential candidates.

He is also close to James Ibori, the former governor of Delta state and one of Nigeria's most influential politicians who was instrumental in Yar'Adua's rise to power.

He is the son of Kwara state political "godfather" Olusola Saraki, who vied for the presidency in the 1990s and is now an influential senior figure in the PDP.

MAHMUD YAYALE AHMED

Yar'Adua appointed Yayale secretary to the federal government in September 2008, a powerful position which co-ordinates between ministries and the presidency. He had previously served as defence minister.

Yayale was also head of service under Obasanjo, the most powerful civil servant, but is reported to have since fallen out with the former president.

ISA YUGUDA

Governor of northeastern Bauchi state, Yuguda is Yar'Adua's son-in-law and a member of his kitchen cabinet. He spearheads the president's economic think-tank, an advisory committee set up to steer the country through the global economic downturn.

Once a bank managing director, Yuguda was among those tipped to take over as governor of the central bank earlier this year.

Aviation minister during Obasanjo's first term, he won the 2007 Bauchi governorship election on the platform of the opposition All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) but has since switched to the ruling party.

JIBRIL AMINU

A second term senator from northeast Adamawa state, Aminu narrowly missed being vice president in 1999 when Obasanjo preferred Atiku Abubakar over him.

The erudite politician was compensated with an appointment as ambassador to the United States from 1999-2003. A former university vice chancellor, he served as oil minister under former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida.

Though Aminu also enjoys Obasanjo's support and that of the National Assembly, he is disadvantaged because he is in his 70s and is known to have medical problems of his own. (For more Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: af.reuters.com/ ) (Editing by Nick Tattersall)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE5BF1G320091224?sp=true

We reject all of these thieves in their entirety for generations to come.

SapeleGuy:

We reject all of these thieves in their entirety for generations to come.

That is simply a list of potential PDP candidates. Don't assume that PDP will win the presidential election.

who ever wrote that article should know, he can trigger a civil war in nigeria. the north can not replace yar adua with a northerner. it would make 12 years of a northerner in power. the north was in power for 42 year before,  if a northerner replace yar adua i beat you it is the start of a civil war. the north should forget it. they have to wait thier turn, thier turn ends with yar adua,

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