Who will become President in 2019 and how do they intend to get there?

Please note that these are permutations of my own doing and might not reflect the intention of the discussants.

2019 is around the corner and the drums of political campaigns have already begun. The attention needed to court public votes have started to reveal itself, unfortunately most Nigerians are either too politically naive or ethnicity biased to not just see, but read the writing on the wall.

Below are some assumptions I will highlight which is open for debate.

1. Buhari will not contest in 2019.

2. Osinbajo will not be chosen as Vice in 2019

3. IPOB and National restructuring just like Boko Haram are politically-dangled carrots.

4. The power alliance will be between North and South East/South

5. The race will be between Atiku and El Rufai.

6. The North have practically ruled for 7years (Yar'Adua did 3 years and Buhari might rule till 2019)



1. Buhari will not contest in 2019.

President Buhari came into power with the North/South West alliance, most importantly through the help of Asiwaju Tinubu. There has been several downplay of Tinubu's influence during the presidential election, but the real Men behind the scenes can attest to the fact that Tinubu and his machinery helped coast victory for Buhari.

Firstly he was the major financier for APC and the instrumentalist that helped Buhari clinch the presidential ticket. Remember he helped install the current APC chairman and made sure that the Presidential primary election was held in his turf.

Secondly he garnered support from Nigeria's political heavyweights, people (IBB, OBJ, etc.) Buhari dared not meet to campaign (secretly or openly) for him. He even helped install the Emir of Kano against Ex-president Jonathan's wish.

Thirdly, Tinubu did not only deliver Southwest votes, he delivered the entire Nigerian votes. He definitely had help from a lot of key people (Northern Governors, etc.), but he did not wait for them to set the motion.

Buhari after attaining power abandoned Tinubu, and focused his half term energy on fighting corruption rather than to promote economic progress. It is a known fact that he is still not as fit as fiddle, and this brings me to the assumption that the rigorous exercise of campaigning will reveal a lot about his health. He is currently operating from home, and not the presidential office. The excuse given was that rodents infested his office, but the truth is that he can’t endure the stress of moving from home to office.

Buhari therefore, will not contest in 2019. Rather Kaduna Governor El Rufai will be selected (most likely through tacit imposition) and Buhari will strongly endorse El Rufai. The pronouncement by El Rufai that Buhari will contest in 2019 is a mere shield from the real truth which is that he wants to be President.



2. Osinbajo will not be chosen as Vice in 2019

Vice President Osinbajo is arguably the best member in Nigeria's presidential duo since 1999 democracy. Ex-President Obasanjo is the most experienced and ascertained leader and actually had the best regime. Osinbajo was chosen by Tinubu as the vice president because 1. He is a pastor at the biggest Christian church in Nigeria and an eloquent speaker. 2. He is an accomplished Attorney General that could assist Buhari take bold steps without encroaching on legal/legislative wars. 3. He is well grounded in the economic reforms policy that Nigeria so desperately needed. He indeed complimented Buhari and the rest is history.

Unfortunately, he will lose out of the political calculations in 2019. Even if El Rufai asks him to be his running mate, he will most likely decline. The fact is not because of his alliance with Tinubu, it’s merely because in 2019, the southwest will not be key determinants nor will they as demanding for the spoils of political fixation in the federal government as other parts of the country are demonstrating. The Southwest people are generally more tolerant and empathetic. They openly declared support for Jonathan to become president when late president Yar'Adua's subjects held the position hostage.

Tinubu who is the Godfather of the Southwest has been losing some battles in his terrain, which is due to the thinning of his influence in the region by the Presidential cabal. This set of individuals have been working to protect their power retention (Buhari or El Rufai). Be mindful that 2018 in the southwest will be a key indicator to how things will play out in 2019. Ondo state was won by Governor Akeredolu against Tinubu's wishes, but with the support of the cabal.

The cabal (APC) will support Ekiti state Governor Fayose (PDP) to choose a successor in agreement to either tacitly support their candidate (El Rufai) or divide the votes. Remember that Fayose is clamoring to be President, however this is a strategy to clinch the Vice presidential ticket which he won’t get. He will most likely contest for Senator and aim for Senate President under PDP as it will be zoned to SouthWest. Saraki will become a mere senator (APC or PDP) in 2019.

With PDP clinching the Senatorial seat in Osun state, and the growing disdain for Ogbeni Aregbesola, APC might lose the governorship election to PDP. The cabal will try to install their candidate but will get a strong refusal from Aregbesola which might make them relinquish powers to PDP. The compromises might be a camouflage to create an impression of weakness in losing the Southwest governorship election, but the ultimate plan is to use the federal might to win the presidential election without Tinubu's influence.



3. IPOB and National restructuring just like Boko Haram are politically-dangled carrots.

I love our politicians, the smart ones are developing a blueprint for the governance and alliances, while the crafty ones are quick to key into discussions, topics or events that will further boost their chances of garnering votes. Most aspiring office holders usually have a manifesto that contain what agendas they intend to birth/fix when they are elected, unfortunately the public do not get to ask about the two remain questions; How and When?

Ex-President Jonathan had a shot at nipping the bud of the menacing agenda of Boko haram, which unfortunately became a thorn in his governance. He also allowed corruption thrive, while ignoring committed blunders in his administration like the Nigeria Immigration job scam. This presented APC with the opportunity to convince the public that they were the better alternative.

The issue of the declaration of Biafra is a smokescreen with a real agenda in the background. My opinion is that the agitation of Biafra led by Nnamdi Kanu will not lead to the creation of a new country, but rather spur the Igbos to vote en-mass for a chosen Igbo Vice presidential candidate either in APC or PDP. Kanu might become a fatal casualty of a blind cause, which will further encourage sympathetic votes from the south-east and other parts of the Country.

The issue of National restructuring is also a topic being used by ex-vice president Abubakar to endear the Yoruba and Igbo ethnicity to his political cause. I do not believe a restructuring will be set in motion after He becomes President for he has not clearly stated how he intends to do it and the timeline it will elapse. Nigerians will debate all this at beer parlors, newspaper stands, etc.



4. The power alliance will be between North and South East/South

Unfortunately, the South Easterners are entertaining the idea of a Biafra, and they will be blind to see reason that the agenda is all about 2019 election. Since 2015, the south east/south were not duly compensated in the power sharing structure; President (North), Vice President (SouthWest), Senate President (North), Speaker (North). The voice of the Easterners/Southerners are drowned before it gets to Aso Rock, but the only way to be the most appealing political bride ahead of 2019 is through the chant of Biafra republic.

In the 19th Century, a German philosopher, G.W.F. Hegel devised a particular dialectic, or, method of argument for resolving disagreements. A process where the contradiction between the Thesis and Antithesis resolves to a higher level of truth, the synthesis. It can be referred to as Problem, Reaction and Solution. With this in mind you can control the outcome of a given event. Let’s set this in motion

Problem: The South East/South are marginalized in the power sharing formula.
Reaction: Create a Biafran agitation that will cause chaos and uprising
Solution: Compensate the South East with a juicy offer in 2019 (Vice President)

Why will the South West be ignored? Nothing really serious. Remember that politics is a game of numbers. The North has the highest voting power, and the others follow slightly close to each other. With the agitation of Biafra, the Easterners are more united than ever, and it will be easy to get them to vote for an Igbo Vice President with the promise that He will become President afterwards.

The presidential candidates from both parties will have divided votes in the North and South West, but whoever courts the unflinching loyalty of the Biafran agitators will easily coast to victory. This is a very important alliance that will unravel as time goes by.



5. The race will be between Atiku and El Rufai.

One of Nigeria's political and strategic heavyweight is none other than Obasanjo. He has been close to the corridors of power since 1960, and has remained relevant till date. He has always known about every coup that happened, every political intrigue regardless of region, but most importantly, he has also been instrumental to our nation’s unity and stability. Love him or hate him, he is a force to reckon with.

There has been rumblings that Obasanjo is in full support of Senator Kwankwaso's presidential ambition, and that the Senator might decide to return to PDP. This is not Kwankwaso's first attempt at becoming President, Obasanjo preferred him in 2015 above Buhari, but he lost out in the race. It is my opinion that Kwankwaso haven fallen out with Kano state Governor Ganduje, will not be able to clinch the presidential ticket in APC and mostly likely not PDP. He will be resisted by the South East/South bloc and will not have deep pockets to successfully oil PDP machinery.

I have already stated that El Rufai will be supported by Buhari (He has a mass following in the North) and the APC might not have a choice but embrace him. I believe El Rufai is going to carry along the political structure of Buhari, and compensate the cabal with juicy positions, but I do not think their relationship will last long should he become President.

Why will Atiku be considered as a strong contender? First of all, the ex-vice president has a lot of political associates from South east/South; James Ibori (Finally out of prision) to name a few. He is considered a pan-Nigerian candidate who can win your heart if you get to meet him in person. Secondly, He will most likely get General Ibrahim Babangida's support along with other northern rulers, and together divide the Northern votes against any other candidate. Thirdly, he might be considered as the Presidential flag bearer for PDP because he can simply bankroll his campaign and unite all tribes.

I want to assume that Atiku will be the one to benefit the most from the ongoing Biafra issue, its just a matter of time before we see who will be chosen as the vice presidential candidates.

It will be a tough decision to make if both candidates go head to head with each other, because El-Rufai will have the federal might, and Atiku will have the PDP structure with full support of South East/South

If El Rufai settles for a Yoruba vice president without Tinubu's support, he will not be able to win.

If Tinubu supports El Rufai, he will win.

If Tinubu supports Atiku, he will surely win.

If Tinubu does not support either, Atiku will win.



6. The North have practically ruled for 7years (Yar'Adua did 3 years and Buhari might rule till 2019)

I am indifferent about my choice of presidential candidate belonging to any part of the country. I do not believe power belongs to a particular sect. We need thought leaders, people who objectively approach problems through design thinking. I am an admirer of our Vice President and I wouldnt mind his promotion as President in 2019. I know it is a wishful thinking, but I pray soon, we all will see ourselves as humans first.

Nijeriƴa!

Some.people want to write sha...yeye

Very interesting analysis

The part about Tinubu giving Buhari the votes.

Tinubu himself said, they looked for a candidate that could defeat Jonathan, only Buhari fit the bill.
Buhari had a cult like followership, even in previous elections, he still managed to get majority of Northern votes so it was easy to use propaganda against Jonathan in the south


But in spite of that, it was only Northern rigging machine that could help Buhari with those super figures from 3 states.
The margin of victory was still below 3 million and most of Jonathan votes were from SW as well

What I'm saying is that, without the cult like figure of Buhari on the ballot paper, no other Northern candidate will have it easy.
El-Rufai can never be president cos only Northern votes can't help him

ITbomb:
The part about Tinubu giving Buhari the votes.

Tinubu himself said, they looked for a candidate that could defeat Jonathan, only Buhari fit the bill.
Buhari had a cult like followership, even in previous elections, he still managed to get majority of Northern votes so it was easy to use propaganda against Jonathan in the south


But in spite of that, it was only Northern rigging machine that could help Buhari with those super figures from 3 states.
The margin of victory was still below 3 million and most of Jonathan votes were from SW as well

What I'm saying is that, without the cult like figure of Buhari on the ballot paper, no other Northern candidate will have it easy.
El-Rufai can never be president cos only Northern votes can't help him

You are absolutely right. Thank you