A TRUE LIFE STORY OF A VETERAN TRADER



We were in a midst of a popular monthly traders’ forum when an elderly man on a wheelchair was helped into the hall.



The moderator asked us to stand up for the man, whom he called “a soldier on the battlefield of the financial markets.”



As the forum was about to be concluded, someone suggested that we allow the professional on a wheelchair to give a short speech.



A mic was given to him. He held the mic and said:



“My fellow traders. Thank you for standing up for me, and thank you for giving me a privilege to talk in this forum.



I started trading 12 years ago. And I am still trading. I will trade for as long as I breathe. I am one of the most popular Forex traders in this country.



Sadly, the one who coached me for Forex trading stopped trading in 2008, because of subprime crises and market crashes. He lacked risk control skills.



I pressed on, to become a regular columnist in a popular newspaper, writing about Forex trading on daily basis. I also provided trading signals for people, as well as trading my personal accounts.



I have 2 powerful manual strategies that I use. I developed the strategies based on my many years of experience. Trainees who apply my strategies have been sharing wonderful testimonies since.



A few years ago, I fell ill. Diagnosis revealed that I had cancer of the bone marrow. I required surgery in a foreign hospital. I gathered all the funds I could gather, and well-wishers and friends also contributed what they could.



I was transported to a foreign country (I was already paralyzed).



Luckily, the surgery was successful. I can say, partially successful, for the paralysis was partially corrected. I can now speak and use my hands. I can also stand up, but I cannot walk.



While I was on a hospital bed and my legs were tied. I was trading profitably on mobile devices. I was even providing trading signals and mentorship to people online.



Then, a client couldn’t believe I was providing services to clients on a hospital bed until we connected on Skype, doing video calls. I was seen trading on a bed, while I was strapped to the bed.



Several months ago, I came back to my country, and I have continued trading, training and providing signals since then.



[He burst into tears].



Traders. Let me tell you this. Online trading remains the best tool for financial freedom. Please do anything possible to become a winning trader.



Look at my condition now. I am advanced in age. I can only stand up, but I cannot walk. I need crutches and a wheelchair to move about.



Imagine. If I was someone who did 9.00 A.M – 5.00 P.M. work, what would be my lot now? My employers would have laid me off. If I was fortunate enough to get anything from them, it could have been exhausted by now.



I would have become a beggar by now. Or what makes me special when compared to other handicapped persons who have now become beggars? Clearly, online trading makes the difference!



Imagine. If I go to Mr. Henry to beg for $30, I would finish spending it. If I go to Mr. Johnson to beg for $20, I would finish spending it.



If Mr. Johnson was kind enough to give me $20 three times. He would eventually stop giving me more money because he got his own responsibilities. He might not pick my calls again; or he would instruct his folks to tell me he is not at home, when I visit him next (to beg for money).



This is a lesson you must learn. Please learn from my story. I trade on a wheelchair, and I make money from signals provision, coaching and trading. I can sustain myself, my wife, my 3 kids and my aged mother.”



He dropped the mic.



And the forum ended.



I conclude this articles with the 3 quotes below:



“You must be disciplined in following the plan of your trade religiously. Once you have closed your position, you should record everything about the trade. Write down where you wanted to enter the trade, what you expected out of the trade, and what you actually did get out of the trade. Make sure to include notes that will help you learn from the trade, reasoning what actually took place once you entered the trade. Explain why the trade was a winner or a loser. If you keep detailed records, you can learn from past trades and increase your chances of recognizing your strengths and weaknesses. Build on your strengths and stay away from trades you have demonstrated weakness in.” – Andy Jordan (Source: Tradingeducators.com)



“Humans are an error based machine, we make mistakes and perfection is never really on our radar despite our best efforts. The realisation that mistakes are at the core of good trading is hard for many to accept as they are locked into the belief that you cannot make money if you get trades wrong. Fortunately there is no nexus between making money and being right. Many, many years ago i discovered that the fewer bleeps I gave the more I made. To revert to a past life choice of mine – you could never be a fighter if your expectation was that you would never be hit.” – Chris Tate



“Avoid illiquid markets. Be sure to check volume. How much is it on average and is it steady day after day. And perhaps the greatest lesson of all should you happen to leap before you look--never, ever trade on hope or stay in a trade based on hope. If you are wrong, get out. If you don't have the discipline to do that, you shouldn't be trading.” – Joe Ross

resource see : forex analysis

plan
discipline
patience

very essential to trading you can't win every trade but you can make a diffrences in profit margin as long the net profit is Green
one problem every trader has is due to lack of descpline FOMO and emotional fear of losing a trade

one a trader can cope with is emotion follow and sticks to his plans and has a lot of patiences he can succeding that why you need to practice practice paractice and forget about your loss know when to quit and know when to take profit no signal trends forever

The Race to the Top or Bottom?

US Public Debt woes continue to have little effect on the global equity markets. Will this change? Is the Nasdaq overbought and are we in a bubble scenario?

Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk

Market Headlines

How Facebook Made Its Cambridge Analytica Data Crisis Even Worse (Bloomberg)
Oil prices rise on Middle East tension, falling Venezuela output (Reuters)
The 10 ways China could retaliate against the U.S. in a trade war (Marketwatch)
Uber halts self-driving car tests after death (BBC)
Saudi Aramco expected to list first on Saudi stock exchange, delaying international debut (CNBC)
Yi Gong named as Head of People's Bank of China (BBC)

Today's Economic Announcements (GMT)

07:00 - Trade Balance (CHF)
09:30 - CPI m/m (GBP)
10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator (EUR)
12:30 - Wholesale Trade m/m (CAD)

#forex analysis

What’s next? – USDJPY 21.03.18

The dollar was trading 0.05 percent lower vs the Japanese yen at 106.47 as of 04:40 GMT on Wednesday, with the dollar easing as Fed’s monetary event approaches.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.10 percent lower at 89.86 by the time of this writing.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time this year by 25 basis points, which would put the benchmark rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75 percent.

According to Fed funds CME Group’s FedWatch program, market players are currently pricing in a nearly 94 percent chance of a rate hike this week. It would be the first hike of 2018.

Analysts have pointed out Fed’s interest rate hike has already been priced in, explaining a downward correction is likely once the official announcement is done.

However, the dollar could extend gains if Jerome Powell opts for a more hawkish rhetoric. The US regulator has forecasted at least three rate moves for 2018.

No relevant data was released on Tuesday.

Ahead in the day, market players will be paying attention the release of existing home sales for February at 14:00 GMT and the interest rate decision for March as of 18:00 GMT. Investors will also carefully monitor a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

#forex analysis

Dollar dips on dot-plot disappointment, BoE in focus'


The Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates to their highest level since the financial crisis, but Dollar bulls are clearly unamused.

Although on Wednesday, as widely expected, US interest rates were raised by 0.25% to a new band of 1.5%-1.75%, investors were more concerned with the dot-plot and Powell’s press conference. While the policy statement was generally positive and US economic growth was revised higher for 2018 and 2019, a crucial ingredient for hawks was missing. There is a suspicion that the Fed heavily disappointed markets by leaving the dot-plot unchanged for 2018 at a grand total of three hikes. Although there was a small upgrade to the dot-plot forecast for 2019 and 2020, this did little to support King Dollar. Jerome Powell’s noticeable caution during his conference and statement on how there was no clear indication in data of an accelerating inflation, encouraged investors to attack the Dollar further.




Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index was vulnerable to heavy losses after the Federal Reserve turned out to be less hawkish than anticipated. The breakdown below 90.00 could invite a decline towards 89.50 and 89.00, respectively.

Sterling higher ahead of BoE

The main event risk for Sterling today will be the Bank of England monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 0.5%.

Investors will direct their attention towards the language of the statement for any fresh insights about potential timings of a change in UK interest rates this year. A sense of optimism over the Brexit transition deal, coupled with the fact that wage growth accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years, has boosted speculation of a rate hike in May. Sterling could receive a further boost if BoE policymakers mirror these expectations by adopting a hawkish stance and signalling a rate hike in May.

Focusing on the technical perspective, the GBPUSD extended gains on Thursday with prices hitting a fresh one-month high at 1.4170 as of writing. The combination of Dollar weakness following Wednesday’s dot-plot disappointment and Sterling strength has brought GBPUSD bulls back into the game. A breach above 1.4180 could encourage an appreciation towards 1.4260 and 1.4300.'

#forex analysis

What’s next? – OIL 23.03.18

Oil prices were higher in Asian trading hours on Friday, with market players awaiting the weekly US oil rig count later in the session.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were up 0.93 percent to $64.90 per barrel as of 06:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures rose 0.74 percent to $69.42 a barrel.

Baker Hughes is expected to release its weekly oil rig count for the US as of 18:00 GMT.

Crude benchmarks settled lower on Thursday as most investors opted to take profits following strong gains this week, although sentiment remained on the green side, opening the doors to a potential short-term upward correction.

Morgan Stanley said US crude inventories are expected to fall later in 2018 if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to grow.

“On May 12, the US government will need to decide on the renewal of the waiver of Iranian sanctions,” the bank said.” “Depending on the outcome, this could affect Iranian exports, including possibly taking a few hundred thousand barrels per day off the market.”

Also, the investment bank said crude prices could benefit from Venezuela’s output shortage.

“Any restrictions imposed by the US government on diluent exports from the US or crude imports from Venezuela into the US could lead to a further decline in overall production.”

Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration said that crude stockpiles for the week ended March 16 dropped by 2.6 million barrels vs a forecasted gain of 2.6 million barrels.

#forex analysis

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 26 - 30, 2018)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral

This pair has consolidated so far this month. Price has been ranging between the support line at 1.2250 and the resistance line at 1.2450. This week may see an end to the neutrality of the market, as price would either move above the resistance line at 1.2450 (staying above it); or it would move below the support line at 0.2250 (staying below it). However, a strong movement to the south is much more likely this week, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs.


USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

In the short-term, this pair is bullish. Since the support level at 0.9200 was tested in February 16, 2018, price has rallied by over 350 pips, moving briefly above the resistance level at 0.9550. The market has been corrected lower since then, closing below the resistance level at 0.9500. A rally from here would save the bullish bias; while a plunge from here would render it invalid. Nonetheless, the market is more likely to go upwards as a result of a bearish outlook on EURUSD.


GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

The bias on GBPUSD has become bullish again, for price went upwards by 250 pups last week. Even the movement this month has been largely bullish (price has gained a minimum of 400 pips). The distribution territory at 1.4200 was tested, but price closed below the distribution territory at 1.4100 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern the market, which points to a possibility of further bullish journey, as price targets the distribution territories of 1.4150, 1.4200 and 1.4250. This, nevertheless, cannot rule out a possibility of a strong pullback in the market. GBP pairs will experience high volatility this week.


USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair traded southwards last week, to corroborate the presence of bears. Since January 8, 2018, price has lost 830 pips. It lost 170 pips last week, after testing the supply level at 106.50. Since there is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, price can still reach the demand levels at 104.50, 104.00 and 103.50 before the end of this week. A rally may occur along the way, but it should not be something that would override the extant bearish outlook on the market.


EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Although the market is choppy, the bearish trend has been maintained. Price has been going southward since February 5, having lost almost 800 pips since then. Last week, there was a rally attempt in the context of an uptrend, which was halted once the supply zone at 131.50 was tested. The market shed 250 pips following that, to test the demand zone at 129.00, and closed below the supply zone at 129.50. The expected weakness in EUR, as well as the bearish outlook on the market, may enable the demand zones at 129.00, 128.50 and 128.00 to be tested this week.


GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

The cross is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. This is a choppy market: An abortive bullish attempt was made last week, but that was rejected as the supply zone at 150.00 was tested. Price came down after that, thus cancelling the short-term effect of the bullish attempt. This week, there may not be any rallies that will cancel the existing bearishness in the market. Price could go further southwards, but it is not expected to go below the demand zone at 145.00, which is the ultimate target for the week.


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Volatility is good for trading… Volatility can and should be used to a trader’s advantage. It all comes back to understanding and believing in your trading system.” - Jasper Lawler

#forex analysis

Forex Weekly Outlook - Mar. 26-30 - Trade fears ahead of Good Friday


The US dollar rocked and rolled on the Fed’s dovish hike and the renewed fears of a trade war. Politics will continue moving currencies and we also have final US, UK, and Canadian GDP as well as other figures ahead of Easter. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

The Fed raised rates as expected but did not change the dot-plot forecast for 2018, leaving two more rate hikes on the cards this year. The upgrades for 2019, 2020, and the long-term were minimal. In addition, Powell echoed concerns about trade and said he was surprised wages did not rise. The dollar did not like it. On the trade front, the Administration approved exemptions to Europe, Canada, Mexico, Australia and several other countries and turned its attention to China. The greenback continued struggling especially against the yen and not so much against the Australian dollar. The pound enjoyed the announcement of transition Brexit deal, even though there are a few holes in it. The euro was relatively steady as the dollar’s weakness was countered by fears that euro-zone growth has peaked.

Updates:

US CB Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence rose to a high level of 130.8 points in February and another increase to 131.2 is on the cards now. The parallel University of Michigan figure for March has already surprised to the upside.

US GDP (final): Wednesday, 12:30. The third and final read of US growth for Q4 2017 is expected to show a small upgrade from 2.5% to 2.7% annualized growth. The world’s largest economy enjoyed robust growth in Q2, Q3, and also Q4, while prospects for Q1 2018 already look dimmer.

Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Sales pending the final transaction fell sharply in January, by 4.7%. A rebound is now on the cards. Figures from the housing sector were mixed lately.

UK GDP: Thursday, 8:30. The UK economy grew at a slower pace than many of its peers in 2017. The final quarter saw a growth rate of 0.4% q/q according to the second estimate and the final read is expected to confirm it. While changes to the quarterly growth figures are not common, a change to the annual number happens quite often.

Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canada is unique in publishing growth figures on a monthly basis. Back in December, the economy grew by 0.1% m/m. We will now get the first read for January, a peek into the new year
forex analysis.
US Core PCE Price Index: Thursday, 12:30. This is the Fed’s favorite inflation measure and has an impact despite coming after the CPI data. Year over year, the Core PCE increased by 1.5% in January and the same figures are projected for February. Month over month, core prices are projected to rise at a slower pace: 0.2% after 0.3% beforehand. The US also releases personal spending, personal income, and weekly jobless claims at the same time.

What’s next? – USDJPY 29.03.18



The dollar was trading 0.16 percent lower vs the Japanese yen at 106.67 as of 08:50 GMT on Thursday, as the dollar eased in early hours.

Overnight, the US dollar index added more than 0.80 percent to trade around 89.71, a five-day peak, with upbeat economic data offering support, as well as an improving market sentiment.

The US Commerce Department said the gross domestic product (GDP) rose to an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent, above a prior revision of 2.5 percent and a 2.7 percent rate seen.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.01 percent lower at 89.61 by the time of this writing.

Also, reports indicating that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged to denuclearize the Korean peninsula contributed to the dollar’s rally. Xinhua news agency said an unofficial meeting between President Xi Jinping and Kim took place in Beijing.

President Donald Trump, who is expected to meet Kim in the near future, recognized that positive steps are being taken in order to guarantee a full denuclearization of the region.

“Received message last night from Xi Jinping of China that his meeting with Kim Jong Un went very well and that Kim looks forward to his meeting with me,” Trump tweeted.

The USDJPY is perceived as a risk on/ risk off pair, in which the dollar represents demand for risk and the yen for safe havens. At the time, the balance is turning to the dollar, but it is still too early to define a sustainable trend. Next week’s employment reports will probably help with it.

On the data front, Fed’s favorite inflation measure - the core PCE price index - is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. Data will come along with personal spending for February. Michigan University will release consumer expectations and sentiment surveys for March at 14:00 GMT.

Moving closer to midnight, Japan’s jobs/applications ratio for February will be available at 23:30 GMT. Tokyo’s core CPI for March will be out at the same time. Twenty minutes later, market players will count on February’s industrial production, with a 4.2 percent reduction seen.

Ripple, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash Daily Analysis - 30/03/18


Bitcoin Cash looking to make a name for itself early on, as it bucks the trend of yet another slide through the early part of the day, adding further pressure on the cryptomarket, with the talk of bubbles likely to do its rounds.

Bitcoin Cash Breaks the Mould
Bitcoin Cash investors will be feeling a little bruised this morning, following Thursday’s 17.36% tumble to an end of day $710.1, marking a 4th consecutive day of decline in what has become quite a bearish run for Bitcoin Cash and the broader cryptomarket.

There were hopes of a possible reversal of the bearish trend formed back on 21st March in the early part of the day, with Bitcoin Cash managing to move into positive territory to hit an early intraday high $868.

Falling short of the day’s first major resistance level of $888.53 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $904 ultimately led to another sell-off through the 2nd half of the day, pulling Bitcoin Cash down to an intraday low $694, which tumbled through the day’s 3 support levels with relative ease.

It’s all about regulation and, while the unknown continues to drag down the majors, some of the regulatory upheaval will actually be a positive, with many investors having steered clear of the Wild West due to the lack of regulatory oversight and lack of investor protection.

That’s for another day however, with regs likely to be fed through until July’s anticipated major globally coordinated roll out.

Investors waking up in the early hours to look at the direction of the markets will have been somewhat shocked to see heavy declines once more, though there was some good news for Bitcoin Cash investors, with Bitcoin Cash up 3.02% to $731.4 at the time of writing.

This morning’s moves are certainly not in line with the broader market, with the love hate relationship between Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash in evidence and favouring Bitcoin Cash that recovered from an early morning low $680.

While managing to avoid the day’s first major support level of $646.7, the negative sentiment across the broader market is unlikely to do Bitcoin Cash any favours today, any gains likely to lead to investors locking in profits ahead of any tumble later in the day.

Barring a material shift in investor sentiment, we would expect the day’s first major resistance level of $820.73 to remain untested, while a move back through the morning’s $738.8 high would support a run at the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $786.

That bearish trend has been going on for a while and the lack of a rally last weekend was certainly an early warning signal of the lack of investor appetite in the current cryptomarket environment.


Get Into Bitcoin Cash Trading Today

Litecoin Facing the Prospect of Sub-$100
Litecoin had a slightly better day than Bitcoin Cash on Thursday, falling 12.84% to end the day at $114.79, with Litecoin also down for a 4th consecutive day.

An intraday high $132.54 in the early part of the day followed a common theme across the cryptomarkets, with Litecoin taking a tumble through the 2nd half of the day, hitting an intraday low $112 before a partial recovery to $114 levels by the day’s end.

Litecoin not only tumbled through the day’s 3 support levels, but also closed out the day sitting on the day’s 3rd support level of $114.17, supporting further pain for investors through the early part of this morning.

Unsurprisingly, the day’s $132.54 high fell well short of the first major resistance level of $137.75 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $140.82, affirming the continuing bearish trend formed from a swing hi $175.5 struck on 21st March.

For the day ahead, investors will need to be patient, with a move back through to today’s opening $114.4 likely to support a run at the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level and first major resistance level of $127, though for any moves beyond a material shift in market sentiment would be needed and that looks unlikely this morning.

Failure to make a move through to $120 levels would certainly add further selling pressure on Litecoin, with the day’s first major support level of $107.01 and 2nd support level of $99.24 certainly in play later in the day.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 1.98% to $112.26.


Buy & Sell Cryptocurrency Instantly

Ripple Makes the Wrong Kind of Splash


Following Wednesday’s 0.62% gain that broke the broader market trend, moves through the early part of Thursday, saw Ripple’s XRP continue to head north to hit an intraday high $0.57645. In stark contrast to its peers, Ripple’s XRP came within touching distance of the day’s first major resistance level of $0.5895 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5953, with the talk of more banks exploring Ripple’s cross border payment platform providing much needed support.

In the end, the broader market sentiment laid claim to Ripple’s XRP, which tumbled to an intraday low $0.49014 in the 2nd half of the day, brushing aside the day’s 3 major support levels on its way down.

Ending the day below the 3rd support level of $0.5086, with a 12.2% slide to $0.50332, was certainly bearish for the day ahead, supporting Ripple XRP’s 4.93% fall to $0.4785 at the time of writing.

This morning’s $0.46331 low fell through the day’s first major support level of $0.4701 before support kicked in to avoid a further slide to the day’s 2nd support level of $0.4370, though the move may well be on the cards later today if investors are unable to break out of the current tail spin.

A move through to the day’s high $0.516 would certainly provide support, any hint of a relief rally likely to see Ripple’s XRP make significant ground, but when considering all of the factors that have contributed to this year’s collapse, key resistance levels are unlikely to be in range through the remainder of the day, selling pressure at the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5464 anticipated to be on the higher side.

#forex analysis

Do you trade for money or emotional satisfaction?

DO YOU WANT TO BE ENTERTAINED OR RICH?…IT’S YOUR CHOICE

I came across this excellent chart the other day. It shows those times in history when the S&P 500 doubled over a ten year period and the trajectory that this doubling took.

Much commentary that followed on twitter related to the steady low volatility climb that characterised the latest run and how boring this was. One of the interesting thing about markets and money in general is that people betray their true desires and personality.

Markets are the true window into the soul and in this instance what traders were actually saying is that they wanted to be entertained and not rich. The constant current moaning about the lack of volatility is little more than the plaintiff cries of children who bedevil their parents every school holidays with cries of …I’m bored.

This lay observation tallies with what others have found. The seminal work in this field of trader immaturity is An Analysis of the Profiles and Motivations of Habitual Commodity Speculators by W.B. Canoles, S.R. Thompson, S.H. Irwin, and V.G. France. I have summarised their findings below and have added my own emphasis.

“The typical trader assumes a good deal of risk in most phases of his life. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.

[He] does not consider preservation of capital to be a very high trading priority.

As a result, he rarely uses stop loss orders. He wins more frequently than he loses (over 51% of the time) but is an overall net loser in dollar terms. In spite of recurring trading losses, he has never made any substantial change in his basic trading style.

To this trader, whether he won or lost on a particular trade is more important than the size of the win or loss. Thus he consistently cuts his profits short while letting his losses run.

He also worries more about missing a move in the market by being on the sidelines than about losing by being on the wrong side of a market move; i.e., being in the action is more important than the financial consequences.

Participating brokers confirmed that for the majority of the speculators studied, the primary motivation for continuous trading is the recreational utility derived largely from having a market position.

Numerous indications in our survey indicate that they are not trading solely or even primarily for profit, but may be maximizing excitement or the number of winning trades.”

So we come back to the original question. Do you want to rich or be entertained as the choice is entirely yours.

#forex analysis

Attention turns back to data this week



Asian equities kicked off Q2 on a positive note, taking their cue from Wall Street’s rally on Thursday. The gains came despite China imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports and Manufacturing PMI data falling short of economists’ forecasts.

So far China’s response has only been on the aluminum and steel tariffs, announced by the White House last month, and not on the proposed $60 billion in annual tariffs against Chinese products. This shows Beijing is unwilling to enter a trade war with the U.S., knowing that it has more to lose than to win. However, trade dispute will continue to dominate investors’ decisions heading into Q2.

Many traders remain away from their desks on Monday to spend time with their friends and family, so barring an unexpected announcement from the White House, expect markets to stay calm.

Macro data will be back in focus

Manufacturing and Service PMIs from Europe, UK, and the U.S. will be closely scrutinized by investors this week. In March, the euro area private sector expanded at its weakest pace since 2017, raising questions on whether the robust economic performance in the Eurozone during 2017 has come close to an end. Another slip in these leading indicators may well reinforce the belief that the global synchronized growth is losing momentum. This will also justify the under performance in European equities, where the DAX, CAC and IBEX fell 6.35%, 2.73% and 4.4% YTD respectively.

Eurozone inflation

Euro traders will have to give a special attention to the Eurozone preliminary CPI release for March on Wednesday. In February the harmonized inflation came at 1.1%, a 0.2% fall from January’s reading and slipping further away from European Central Bank’s target of just under 2%. Another disappointment on this front will raise the voices within the ECB members, advising against tightening monetary policy which is likely to add further pressure on the EURUSD after falling by more than 1.3% from last week’s highs.

U.S. NFP, the main event of the week

Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls release is undoubtedly the key event of the week. The U.S. is expected to have added 198,000 jobs in March versus 313,000 in February. Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to drop by 0.1% to 4%, the level last seen 18 years ago. However, wage growth remains to be the key market moving piece, after showing an unexpected fall from 2.8% to 2.6% last month. Given that one of the main arguments in markets today is whether the Fed will raise rates by another 2 or 3 times in 2018, this figure will play an important role in pricing interest rates expectations, and thus the dollar’s direction.

#find forex analysis

S&P 500 breaks 200 day moving average

Easter Monday is normally characterised by light trading, but today was anything but out the ordinary, as the US equity markets swung lower sharply on the back of the announcements of tariffs from China on the US. This is quite serious as the 200 day moving average has been broken, and this held back bearish movements previously. With the last line of defence now gone, it could be a case of the bears looking to push their control. This in theory has not been helped by President Trumps attacks on Amazon which have sent tech stocks down as he looks for a target. If the market sentiment is anything to go by then I would be deeply concerned for the bulls, as many have long thought of the share market being overbought, and this could be the start of some serious bearish pressure.

With the 200 day moving average being broken I would expect to see some bullish pressure to see what the market is made of. In this instance I believe any push-back up higher would likely treat the 200 day moving average as dynamic resistance in this instance. The target now for any bears looking for lower lows will be of course the 2532 resistance level, closely followed up by the 2508 level. This area will be the key to see if the S&P 500 has the legs to go even lower, and the bulls and bears will battle it out around here. In the event the bulls cane reassert control, then as mentioned before the 200 day moving average will be a hard task to beat with such a huge extension lower. All in all market sentiment is bearish now, and it will be hard to beat. But it's also worth noting that this is no 2008 scenario, the American economy is still doing strong and it's mainly politics which is driving the lower lows. In reality we could just end up with the market correction we've anticipated for some time.

Crude oil has been one of the big movers today as well, but this should come as no surprise after the recent economic woes on equity markets have spooked bulls, and as the USD lifted strongly against most of the major pairs. Many market commentators have been quick to point that over $70.00 a barrel seems unlikely as demand stays static and they expect a range of 50-70 dollars in the short to medium term. Then again time and time again we've seen commentators be wrong and oil can swing quite wildly.

On the charts the fall lower has so far been stopped by the 20 day moving average. This shows reluctance from the bears to test the technical's, so this looks more like a test the waters sort of move today. However, the ceiling at 66.05 has held for some time and is not looking like it may face much pressure. As a result this could just be trending sideways for the short term and levels will be key for traders looking to take profits. In particular support levels at 62.64, 61.00 and 58.88. With the long term daily bullish trend line to also take into consideration.

#source forex analysis update

Global markets consolidate, but remain indecisive


Investors are likely to have breathed a sigh of relief after the US stock markets’ worst start to the second quarter since the 1929 Great Depression failed to encourage a widespread selloff across the global markets, as traders returned to their desks after the annual Easter holidays.

While we are still encountering quite a subdued trading atmosphere, where major stock markets are in general struggling to find their direction, we are not facing the type of selling pressure that should worry people that there is some serious distress in the equity markets. It does remain difficult to pinpoint whether trade war concerns, or the recent selloff in stocks like Amazon, are driving the market volatility but there is some room to side with the latter. Another tweet from President Trump reinforcing his negative view on Amazon sent the US stock markets on another volatile ride overnight. It does not appear that trade tensions between the US and China are driving the price action this week.

The general consensus is that a trade war will be of no benefit to anyone, which indicates why investors are not reacting that sensitively to the ongoing headlines between Beijing and Washington. Beijing has, as you would expect, condemned the news that the United States published a list of over 1000 Chinese products that it plans to hit with a 25% tariff, but it has not created much of a reaction in the financial markets as it stands.

There has been just as muted of a reaction in the currency markets, where it can be said that many currencies are not reacting as heavily to the ongoing shifts in sentiment for the equity markets as you would usually expect in a period of higher volatility. This can be seen as another reason to suggest that trade war concerns are not driving the direction of the markets, and that it is the selloff in corporations like Amazon that is behind the erratic behaviour in stock markets. If investors were significantly concerned that there was a risk of a trade war, currencies like the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc would be performing much stronger than they have over recent trading sessions. Emerging market currencies like the Malaysian Ringgit, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and even the Chinese Yuan itself are, on the other hand, outperforming what you would expect if there were fears that a trade war is upon us.

Rand showing signs of weakness

The South African Rand has outperformed expectations given that trade war concerns are dominating the news flow. While South Africa might appear to be heavily isolated from the ongoing diplomatic tensions over trade between the US and China, the Rand would be at risk to weakness if the trade tensions between China and the United States intensify and investor attraction towards higher-risk assets takes a hit.

We have seen some weakness in the Rand over the Easter holiday, although the catalyst behind the fluctuation is likely to be last week’s comments from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) that the local currency is overvalued.

GBPUSD attempting 4 days of consecutive gains

The British Pound appears to be attempting its fourth day of gains against the US Dollar during early Wednesday trading, with the Sterling receiving support after the UK manufacturing survey for March exceeded expectations yesterday. As long as the GBPUSD maintains its ground above 1.40, there is potential for the Pound to trade higher this month. We have noticed in recent weeks that investors are potentially using the 1.40 level in the GBPUSD as a possible pivot level, before deciding what direction the Pound could trade next; therefore, I will continue to monitor the 1.40 level in this pair.

If the GBPUSD manages to slip back below 1.40, it would put the Cable at risk to concluding its current run of gains.

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What’s next? – USDJPY 06.04.18
The dollar was trading 0.08 percent lower vs the Japanese yen at 107.28 as of 06:35 GMT on Friday, with market players looking ahead to fresh data.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.02 percent lower at 90.14 by the time of this writing.

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said Washington was hoping to reach an agreement with the Beijing.

“Our intention is not to punish anybody. Our intention is to open markets and investments and lower barriers — that’s the deal,” Kudlow said.

This posture is in strict contrast with White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro, who had previously stated “the expectation is that at the end of 60 days there will be tariffs imposed.”

Easing concerns over the trade dispute between the US and China reduces demand for safe-haven yen, opening the doors to further gains for the pair.

Also prospecting an upward extension is employment data. A strong labor market builds a case for the Federal Reserve to further adjust monetary policy and interest rates.

Ahead in today’s session, the trade dispute will remain in focus, but also attention will turn to a batch of fresh economic reports, including the latest employment figures in the US.



The Labor Department will present its employment report for March, which includes average hourly earnings, nonfarm payrolls, participation rate and the unemployment rate. Currently, economists estimate the following results: 0.2%; 203,000; 195,000 and 4.0% respectively.


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Forex Weekly Outlook April 9-13 - Can the dollar continue higher?

The US dollar extended its recovery in the new quarter, at least against the majors. Is this trend real? US inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes stand out in the second week of April. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

The US gained only 103K jobs in March, fewer than expected. However, wage growth accelerated to 2.7%, in line with early projections. The greenback continued its recovery against its major peers, clawing back lost ground, regardless of the turbulence in stocks and the worsening tensions around trade. The only exception was the Canadian dollar, which enjoyed a strong gain in domestic jobs and also the rising chances for a deal on NAFTA.

Updates:

US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. The Producer Price Index is often considered a leading indicator towards the more significant Consumer Price Index. Prices at factory gates perpetuate further. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% m/m in March, half the rate of February, while Core PPI is forecast to repeat the previous gain of 0.2%.
Mario Draghi talks Wednesday, 11:00. The President of the European Central Bank will appear in front of a student conference in Frankfurt and will also take questions from the crowd. He will have an opportunity to respond to the growing signs of a slowdown in the euro-zone economies, or at least the peak of the cycle, around December. Any comments about inflation will be interesting to watch.

US inflation: Wednesday, 12:30. Inflation remains the missing ingredient in the US growth story. Despite healthy gains in jobs and decent GDP growth, inflation remains stubbornly low. Core CPI remained stuck at 1.8% y/y in February with a monthly rise of 0.2%. This time, yet another 0.2% increase is expected in core CPI while headline prices are projected to remain unchanged in March.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The Fed releases the minutes from the first meeting overseen by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the FOMC raised rates and upgrade the outlook for 2019 and 2020, they did not upgrade the prospects for 2018. The meeting minutes may shed some light on the deliberations. Is the sentiment growing more hawkish and are they on the verge of a fourth hike? How worried are they on the ongoing jitters around global trade? We may get a notion of the mindset.

ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. These are minutes from the ECB’s meeting in March, where forecasts were hardly changed and Draghi made an effort to downplay the slightly more hawkish stance in the statement. The publication is over a month after the event, making it somewhat stale as we have received quite a few data points since then. However, the ongoing battle between the hawks and the doves about ending QE and a potential rate hike somewhere in 2019 rages on.

US Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence provides an outlook towards the retail sale sales. In March, the figure reached 101.4 points, higher than in previous months and above the round number of 100. A minor slide to 100.8 points is on the cards now.

JOLTS Job Openings: Friday, 14:00. This lagging indicator for the jobs market is watched closely by the Fed and is of importance after jumping to an annualized level of 6.31 million back in January. The data for February is projected to show a dip to 6.22 million. The number of quits is also of interest as it is a measure of confidence. More quits imply people are confident to move on, and often to better jobs.

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Ethereum Weekly Price Analysis – April 8


ETHUSD Long-term Trend – Bearish

Distribution territories: $500.00, $600.00, $700.00.

Accumulation territories: $300.00, $200.00, $100.00.

This week ETHUSD pair continues to trend southward almost the same bearish outlook as last week’s formation. On April 3rd, the price managed to form a lower high above distribution territory of $400.00, April 4th marked another noticeable bearish movement in the market. Presently, price has also moved deeply southward and has now been trading around the accumulation territory of $400.00.

Moving average 50 is far above moving average 13. The price action has been traded along the bearish path of moving average 13 consecutively with a wide space notification to moving average 50. The stochastic oscillator remains crossed into the oversold zone and also pointing southward. However, the current price trend could, in the long-term, accumulate momentum from breaking below the next accumulation territory of $300.00 and form a trading range towards another accumulation territory of $200.00. Pit stops can be experienced if that eventually cropped up. Traders can look out at that point in time to take on the bull from a reversal or a pullback which can lead to a potential markup in price in the next few weeks.


The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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Xi Jinping provided equity bulls a much-needed boost



Appetite for risk bolstered Tuesday morning, as Chinese President Xi Jinping offered plans to further open up the second largest economy. Xi’s public speech at the Boao Forum came days after the U.S. and China exchanged tit-for-tat tariffs threats, which kept investors on edge for several weeks. He promised to lower import tariffs for autos, as well as on some other products, open up the financial and insurance sectors, and most importantly, to increase protection to intellectual property.

Xi’s speech calmed markets by responding to all of Donald Trump’s concerns, without even mentioning him. Now it’s time for China to provide specific figures and a timeline on how these reforms will be implemented. I think what was achieved today is likely to reduce trade tensions and buy some extra time. Whether the U.S. will wave back with an olive branch to China remains to be seen, but certainly, the probability of a full-blown trade war is now much lower than a week ago.

Asian equities were all in the green this morning with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 climbing more than 1%. Futures are also indicating a positive start to Europe and U.S. – the S&P 500 futures are up 1.3% at the time of writing.

However, the new geopolitical risks over the increased conflict in Syria cannot be ignored. This came after the U.S. imposed a wide range of financial sanctions on Russian assets, causing stocks to suffer their worst performance in four years and the ruble falling as much as 4.1%. Russia warned the U.S. that any military reprisal to Saturdays’ chemical attack in Syria could have “grave repercussions”. Will U.S. and Russia go into a confrontation in Syria? This likely depends on Trump’s decision over the next 24 hours, but the risks are high.

Although oil prices may have risen on hopes that trade tensions will ease, investors may start pricing in a much higher risk premium. So far, it seems the conflict in Syria has no impact on the supply from the Middle East, but if the battle spills outside the Syrian border, I expect another $10 risk premium to be added to the current price.

The economic calendar is light today, so expect currency traders to continue taking the cue from equity markets.

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CAD surges further on weaker USD

It was all downhill today for the USDCAD as the USD weakness continued to be a major factor. This comes as China looks to work together with the US in order to help deal with intellectual property rights and bring about the end of the trade war. However, it seems that the USD is currently not in favour with traders and they're pushing it lower every chance they get, and no more so than against the CAD which is currently one of the strongest currencies out there. One thing that is worrisome, and on the horizon, is of course the US CPI reading which if strong could potentially lead to a bounce in the USDCAD as it does show signs of being oversold at present. In the long run though the USDCAD does seem like it could potentially run away further on the back of the head and shoulders pattern which has given the bears so much more hunger as of late.


For the USDCAD bears the bottom is looking all the more possible and I am expecting to see some sort of push to support at 1.2548 on the chart. A bounce here not be a surprise as it's oversold at present and probably some traders will look to take profit. However, if we see sustained momentum and we have so far - with the 200 day moving average being swept aside - then I would expect further extensions to potentially 1.2406. In the event the bounce leads to a push back higher the neck line around 1.2807 is likely to be some hard work for the bulls to even crack through, as I would expect the vast majority of traders to defend this heavily.


Oil has been one of the surprise movers in recent times as it rebounded sharply up the charts recently. This should not come as a surprise as the USD has been weaker over the last few days. The question now remains can it sustain a push to resistance at 66.05, as the majority of traders believe that at present 60-70 is the current market range we should expect in the near future. Beyond this level is something we've not seen since 2014. I would anticipate that any moves higher may be met with some bearish resistance but it's hard to tell just yet as oil has not been above this level for some time.


On the charts in the long run momentum has always been bullish with a strong long term trend line. And the bulls today certainly showed they were keen to continue momentum with that push to resistance at 66.05. I would be surprised to see it breakthrough and I expect markets will look for a bounce here, especially if the USD does strengthen. If we do see that bounce then expect the bears to pull it back to 64.57, which will be the next level of support as the market falls. If we do however see a breakthrough then I would need to see a close above the resistance level to keep bullish momentum going.

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What’s next? – USDJPY 12.04.18


The dollar was trading 0.15 percent higher vs the Japanese yen at 106.94 as of 06:25 GMT on Thursday, as the dollar recovered moderately on the back of upbeat inflation data.


Yesterday, the core consumer price index showed a 2.1 percent year-on-year growth for March, its best performance since February 2017, compared to a prior month 1.8 percent.


The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.


Ahead in the day, the US export/import price index is up at 12:30 GMT. No other relevant reports are scheduled for today’s session. We believe attention will turn to political developments.


Overnight, the Trump administration warned Moscow about its position in the Syria conflict, suggesting serious military actions would be taken against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.


President Donald Trump tweeted: “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”


Earlier this week, the Republican leader told a group of reporters that “[the United States] have a lot of options, militarily. And we'll be letting you know pretty soon"


It seems investors’ focus is not shifting from US-China trade relations to US-Russia war relations. This matter could potentially be much more damaging than a trade war, therefore market players are likely to closely monitor the situation.


The pair is expected to run high on the back of higher geopolitical uncertainty. The USDJPY will be driven by fear and the Japanese yen will take the lead in that case.

USDJPY forex analysis

What’s next? – GOLD 13.04.18

Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Friday, with rising geopolitical tension over Syria offering support to the demand of safe-haven assets.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.342.90 a troy ounce as of 06:20 GMT.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said military actions in Syria “could be very soon or not so soon at all”. His remarks boosted the dollar’s position and weighed on the metal.

The precious metal fell 1.3 percent in the previous session, the largest one-day drop since March 28. The dollar’s dynamic continues to play a key role for gold prices.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

Ahead in today’s session, traders will be paying attention to speeches by FOMC members Rosengren and Bullard as of 12:00 GMT and 13:00 GMT respectively.

On the data front, JOLTs job openings for February will be published at 14:00 GMT, along with Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment indicators for April.



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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 16 - 20, 2018)

EURUSD

Irrespective of the bullish attempt that was witnessed last week, the outlook on EURUSD remains neutral. The neutrality has been ongoing for over 2 months, and the bullish attempt that happened last week pales into insignificance when compared to the overall outlook on the market. Price currently oscillates between the support line at 1.2200 and the resistance line at 1.2400. There is a going to be a directional bias once that support line or that resistance line is breached. However, a breach of the support line at 1.2200 is much more likely.



USDCHF

There is some form of bullishness in this market. Since the support level at 0.9200 was breached on February 16, price has moved upwards by 440 pips, closing above the support level at 0.9600 on Friday. This week is supposed to be bullish, because USD will likely gain some stamina against certain currencies like EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD (with the exception of GBP). The first object of attack this week is the resistance level at 0.9650.



GBPUSD

The market gained 220 pips last week, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.4300, and getting corrected lower, to close below the distribution territory at 1.4250. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price is supposed to go seriously upwards again, breaching the distribution territories at 1.4250, 1.4300 and 1.4350 to the upside. Short trades are not yet recommended.



USDJPY

The trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. There is a weak short-term bullishness owing to the fact that price made some effort to go upwards last week, gaining only 80 pips. Price managed to briefly breach the supply level at 107.50, but it could not close above it on Friday (it closed below it). However, price would be able to go above the supply level at 107.50; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50, 109.00 and 109.50.



EURJPY

This cross is bearish in the long-term, and now bullish in the short-term. It has gained roughly 250 pips this month, and it can gain another 250 pips before the end of the month. That is something that can bring about a long-term bullish outlook on the market as it goes through the supply zones at 133.00, 133.50 and 134.00, even exceeding those supply zones as price goes further and further northwards.



GBPJPY

There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market gained roughly 500 pips in March and it has gained over 400 pips this month, closing above the demand zone at 152.50 on Friday. The outlook on GBP/JPY and most other JPY pairs, remains bullish for this week. The price is expected to reach the supply zones at 153.00, 153.50 and 154.00: the targets that could even be exceeded.

Trading forcast forex analysis


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“The markets never reward desperation. They only reward clear thinking, discipline and courage.” – Louise Bedford,

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 16 - 20, 2018

For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:

- EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328;

- The forecast for the pair GBP/USD had supposed a certain growth, but not the one that really happened. Recall that the growth above the horizon 1.4200 was supported by only a quarter of analysts, but the dollar weakening surpassed even their expectations, and the pair almost reached the level of 1.4300 on Friday. However, the strength of the bulls dried up soon, and it rolled back to the level of 1.4240;

- The forecast made by most experts on the pair USD/JPY, suggested continuation of the medium-term lateral trend, which began in mid-February, and its growth to a height of 108.00. That's exactly what happened. The pair moved within the corridor 106.60-107.40 for the whole week, after which it tried to move one level above, but, having reached the height of 107.77, could not get fixed there and returned to the highs of the previous week;

- The forecast for cryptocurrencies turned out to be absolutely correct as well. All major crypto-pairs went up as expected.
The script for the BTC/USD provided for an increase to 7,820-8,360. In fact, the pair reached the mark of 8,200.
For the ethereum, the target was the zone 440-511, it managed to climb even slightly higher - to the height of 527, after which, it returned to the 490 mark by the end of the week.
For the LTC/USD, the scenario envisaged a rise to 155-175, however, even though the pair went up confidently, the bulls' enthusiasm dried up a little earlier - at the height of 133.
And, finally, ripple. The experts set a height of 0.67 as the main target for it, to where it got on Friday evening.
***

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the pair going down first to the level of 1.2215, and then, possibly, to the minimum of the medium-term side corridor at the horizon 1.2155. However, the geopolitical situation in which Syria is involved, as well as the trade war with China, and a number of other factors, can make influence the situation and lead to a further weakening of the dollar. In this case, as 40% of analysts believe as well as most of the oscillators on D1, the pair can continue to move to the resistance levels at the top of the channel, these are 1.2410, 1.2475 and 1.2525;

- Almost all the indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, both on H4 and D1 (85%) are determined to buy the GBP/USD. But as for the experts, here the bulls' advantage is not so impressive: 60% by 40%. The main support is located at 1.4145, then 1.4065 and 1.4010. The resistance levels are 1.4345 and 1.4425.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the advantage is shifted to the bears, and here 60% of analysts vote not for growth, but for the fall of the pair, expecting its fall to the March lows around 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. Almost all indicators are painted green following the trends of the last days and weeks. However, we should pay attention to the fact that the pair is at the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone, which can be traced starting from this February. More than 70% of experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above this zone, and its weekly fluctuations will occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. However, one third of analysts are sure that the pair will return to the side corridor 106.65-107.00, and, if it breaks its lower border, it may drop another 100 points lower, reaching the local bottom at 105.65. This development is also confirmed by the graphical analysis on D1;

- As for cryptocurrencies, experts expect this week that the pair BTC/USD will move along the level of 8,000, making fluctuations in the range of 7,570-8,575. ETH/USD may try to conquer the height of 600, but the ethereum will not be able to get fixed there and it will return to the levels around 485-510. For the pair LTC/USD, experts point to the height of 145 as the target, and to the zone 0.70-0.740 for the pair XRP/USD.



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What’s next? – GOLD 16.04.GOLDpng_8444963_29957972.jpg
18



Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players weighing geopolitical concerns while keeping an eye on upcoming economic reports scheduled later this week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.348.90 a troy ounce as of 06:50 GMT.

Last week, the yellow metal settled in green territory at $1,347.80 per ounce, about 0.44 percent higher. For the week, gold prices added 0.88 percent.

There were three factors supporting the metal in the last few sessions: prospects of a trade war between the US and China, rising international tensions over Syria, and the dollar’s dynamic.

President Xi Jinping said in the previous week that China is willing to take active measures to open its economy, allowing more foreign investments and importation. While this position reinforced the idea of a diplomatic solution, the US hasn’t responded in the same terms so far.

Meanwhile, attention progressively moved to Syria, where three military stations were destroyed by a US-led coalition airstrike launched on Friday. Forces from France, Britain and the US targeted key military infrastructure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

President Donald Trump gave green light to a military intervention following Syria’s deployment of chemical weapons on April 7 in Douma. That attack killed nearly 40 people.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.03 percent lower at 89.48 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

Capping gains for the metal were minutes of the Fed’s March monetary policy encounter, which reinstated the possibility of another two interest rate hikes later this year. According to policymakers, the economy will reach its 2 percent target pretty soon.

Ahead in today’s session, retail sales for March will be out as of 12:30 GMT, along with the NY Empire State manufacturing index for April. Business inventories are due at 14:00 GMT.

Investors will also be monitoring a series of speeches by FOMC representatives, including Kaplan and Kashkari at 16:00 GMT and Bostic as of 17:15 GMT.

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What’s next? – USDJPY 25.04.18


The dollar was trading 0.33 percent higher vs the Japanese yen at 109.17 as of 08:30 GMT on Wednesday, with the dollar taking a central role in the pair’s dynamic in relation to US T yields.


The 10-year US treasury yield reached 3 percent, a level not seen since the beginnings of 2014. However, rates rebounded and moved back below the psychological level.



The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major competitors, was trading 0.33 percent higher at 90.84 by the time of this writing.



Higher bond yields can be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the economy. Usually, rising bond yields are accompanied by falling gold prices as demand for safe-havens decreases.


Analysts pointed out bond yields are reacting on expectations for further monetary policy normalization measures, particularly interest rate hikes scheduled later this year.


Gold gains were capped by an upbeat geopolitical context as positive developments were made over the US-China trade conflict. President Donald Trump emphasized that “China’s very serious, and we’re very serious,” adding that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will be part of delegation travelling to China. “We’ve got a very good chance at making a deal.”


On the data front, the Conference Board said consumer confidence for April came in at 128.7, surpassing expectations for 126.0 and a previous reading of 127.0. New home sales increased 4 percent in March to an annualized rate of 694,000 units. Also above analysts’ forecasts.

No relevant economic data is due for the day. Market players will keep an eye on bond yields, which could be affected by geopolitics and safe-haven demand.

EUR/JPY clattering along the bottom ahead of the European CPI numbers


Euro sitting on the bottom against the Yen in quiet Asia markets.
European CPI figures up next in Europe.
The EUR/JPY is ranging slightly in the early Thursday session, cycling around 131.30.

Japanese markets are shuttered today in observance of Japan's Constitution Day, and the Euro declined for a fifth straight day against the Yen. European preliminary GDP figures came in exactly at expectations on Wednesday and Markit PMIs from across the European region generally beat their expectations, but the EUR wasn't able to stage a successful comeback against the safe-haven Yen and fell as risk aversion sent traders back into the Yen near the end of the day.

With Japan dark for Thursday, there's no Asia data on the docket, but Europe will be seeing preliminary CPI figures at 09:00 GMT. The year-on-year CPI is expected at 1.3%, in-line with the previous figure. Inflation has been on the lagging side for Europe as of late, and the European Central bank may be getting pushed further out on their rate hike expectations looking ahead.

EUR/JPY levels to watch

The further downside could be on the cards for the Euro against the Yen as analysts at Commerzbank noted recently: "the market has eroded its near-term uptrend and we would allow for a slide to the base of the cloud, currently at 130.70. Initial support is the 55-day ma at 131.54. Beyond this near-term correction lower we should see gains to the 134.18/61.8% retracement."

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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair is bearish in the short-term, for price went southwards throughout last week, moving downwards from the resistance line at 1.2450, and nearly touching the support line at 1.2200. The support line would be breached to the downside, as other support lines at 1.2150 and 1.2100 are aimed at. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, and so, the probability of a southwards movement is very high.

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

The outlook on the market is bearish – even in the long term. Throughout last week, there were rally attempts in the context of a downtrend. The current bullish effort may be temporary, because price may drop from here, to test the support levels at 0.9350 and 0.9300 (this week). However, a movement above the supply level at 0.9500 could result in a nice bullish outlook on the market.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This market shed 300 pips last week, closing below the distribution territory at 1.3800. Price has gone downwards by over 430 pips since February 2, creating a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week (save EURGBP, which is expected to be going upwards), and thus the accumulation territories at 1.3750, 1.3700 and 1.3650 could be reached this week.

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

USDJPY is bearish – though the market environment is quite choppy. After several tests, price was able to go below the supply level at 108.50, and it is currently targeting the demand level at 108.00, which could be breached to the downside, as price goes further southwards. The bearish outlook would be intact as long as price does not go above the supply levels 110.00 and 110.50, which could, however, be tested.

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Last week, there was a massive drop on this cross. Price went southwards by 500 pips, reaching the demand zone at 132.00. On Friday, there was an upwards bounce in the market, which should turn out to be temporary, because this cross ought to continue its southwards journey this week. The demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 could be breached to the downside. Rallies in the market could this be ignored.

GBPJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Amid high volatility, the bias on GBPJPY has turned bearish. The bearishness started as a minor bearish correction on February 2, and later became something serious last week. Price plummeted by 600 pips, testing the demand zone at 149.00. The upwards bounce in price, which occurred on Friday, February 10, should be disregarded, because price is most likely go further southwards (owing to the weakness in GBP and a bearish expectation for JPY pairs). The market can shed another 300 pips this week.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“It simply doesn't make sense to trade just one market and to hope that one is going to be the big winner of the year. That's why trading multiple markets is so important and one of the key principles to successful trading in the long-term.” - Marco Mayer

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EUR/USD intraday bounce toward 1.1950

The USD bulls are taking some profits off the table on data-light Monday.
The EUR/USD is bouncing off the 1.1900 handle but the overall trend remains bearish.
The EUR/USD is trading at around 1.1931 down 0.25% on a data-light Monday's trading.

The single currency found some intraday support at the 1.1900 handle amid some mild USD profit-taking and euro bulls are grinding higher toward the 1.1950 psychological level.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in its fourth day of consolidation after posting a strong bull trend in the last three weeks.

This Monday sees many speeches from Fed officials. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin is set to speak at George Mason University in Fairfax in Virginia at 18:00 GMT while Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan will be discussing "Learning About an ML-Driven Economy" at 19:30 GMT. Scheduled at the same time is the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans who will be speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conference titled "Machines Learning Finance. Will they Change the Game?" in Florida at 19:30 GMT. The speeches are academic in nature and should not reveal any surprises in monetary policy and therefore they are not expected to be the next catalyst in the USD bull trend. It is also worth mentioning that UK markets are closed in observance of May Day, therefore, reducing the volume of transactions in the foreign exchange market.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

EUR/USD intraday bounce

The main trend is bearish and immediate supports are seen at 1.1900 and at 1.1817 swing low (December 22, 2017). To the upside, resistances are priced in at 1.1950 supply level and at the 1.2000 psychological level.

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