life2017:


I think the nairalander base his opinion of Ayade on the statement Ayade made praising Buhari when he said Cross River State has benefitted the Most under Buhari than under other Past PDP govt. I think it is a logical evaluation or conclusion. But I ignored all this fact in my assumptions to predict the worst case scenario for Buhari. That is Buhari got only 20% votes in South South in Case A and only 30% votes in South South in Case B in my my analysis even though I think he may get more than that in reality.

The link of Ayade praising Buhari below:

https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/ayade-cross-river-benefits-more-under-buhari.html

Marvin67:
Nice analysis OP. Let me just chip in that things haven't changed in the south south. You can only rig where the emotion of the people allow you rig. It is wrong to compare a senatorial election or even governorship election to a presidential election. APC won two senatorial slots in Rivers but the question is how? One was won by Magnus Abe , a very popular figure who went against an unpopular PDP candidate. The other was won in the court , you know what could have happened in the court, maybe if the case had gotten to the supreme court the judgement could have been reversed. Even Magnus Abe may not be in APC by 2019 , you know his issues with Amaechi. It would be very hard for APC to get up to 10% in the south south. Jonathan had ministers from all the northern states and even had the likes of sule lamido but the rigging didnt work .

A lot of things qould happen between now and 2019 . PDP has gone through the fire of a convention. Apc wants to go through one now . The convention would further tear apc apart .


The Candidate of the PDP also matters . An Atiku would pull more votesfrom the northeast. Dankwanbo would pull more votes from the south. Kwankwanso would do some damage to buhari presidency in the north west . If those 3 come together in PDP with the likes of sule lamido and an emir sanusi who seems to want a change then the PDP chance in the north is actually bigger than expected

life2017:


Many candidates put flavour to the election. But we only know only APC and PDP are the major contender for now. Maybe if the so called coalition is well coordinated, SDP will be a contender.

life2017:


Do u know the cost of 1million teachers with 70,000 Naira a month? That is almost 1 trillion Naira a year.

Nigeria budget base on actual revenue minus death services cannot even meet the current recurrent expenditure.

Some of this things are easier said than done. Nigeria is a poor country.

SternProphet:


The kind of amateurishness and childishness on Nairaland is very very irritating. Look at all this "modern leader" rubbish. What is modern about education?. Awo did it well in the 60s, the Governor of Osun State is doing it.
Has Buhari not spent by double what Jonathan has spent on education?. Everything appears simple to the amateur. Nigeria lost two steps in human development index because of PDP.
Whether you choose to believe this is besides the point.

We should have collected more taxes under PDP to channel into Teacher Training, Schools, instructional materials instead we were buying executive jets and importing Brazilian hair. Every two bit dumb Youth wants to go into Nolly wood or music.
The fabric of civil society was sold on the altar of ease.
You young people are in for some hell and I am not even sorry

9jaArea:

Well said, lots of them expect Buhari to do everything in one night.

9jaArea:


That Ayade guy is pro Buhari to the core, he has never hidden his love for Buhari. Remember C. River was the first state Buhari performed a working visit after his inauguration.

SamuelAnyawu:
Best Analysis on Nairaland aswear

senatordave1:

Oga,are you pro ac or pdp? You keep confusing me.by the way,anyanwu wont get the ticket,ohakim or ihedioha will

Larufa:
I am starting by stating that I am supporting PMB until there is a better candidate.


Using last 2015 election results to forecast the next is faulty, the political situation is different now.

The total number of votes from SS and SE are artificial, the votes are allocated not really voting.

A similar scenario will play out in NE and NW in 2019, ridiculous votes for Buhari.

SW will still vote Buhari with close to 65%, June 12 effects, Tinubu and his boys having a free day with voters buying and intimidation.

In NC, Buhari will still win with 55%, remember all the main and serious PDP candidates (Atiku, Lamido, Turaki) are Fulanis and they have never condemned the alleged "criminal activities" of the herdsmen and APC Government controls the security forces and INEC.

In SS/SE, Buhari will lose but the total number of votes will be less.

tuniski:


Wrong!

Buhari will be defeated hands down! How has June 12 recognition provided jobs or affect the price of rice?
Buhari will be defeated in the NC by pDP irrespective of what the caandiate say or not.NC has always been PDP, it is the party of the minorities in nigeria.
SS and SE will vote massively more than 2015 for PDP while NW and NE won't suppressed PDP's votes like 2015 as the battle is of likes!

life2017:


Are u sure of this?

tuniski:


Wrong!

Buhari will be defeated hands down! How has June 12 recognition provided jobs or affect the price of rice?
Buhari will be defeated in the NC by pDP irrespective of what the caandiate say or not.NC has always been PDP, it is the party of the minorities in nigeria.
SS and SE will vote massively more than 2015 for PDP while NW and NE won't suppressed PDP's votes like 2015 as the battle is of likes!

life2017:
Analysis of Buhari chances in 2019 presidential election

To make a reasonable forecast for 2019 elections, we need to first of all look at 2015 election results and all possible geopolitical zones tendencies.

For 2019 election I have two cases.

CASE A : Buhari/Osibanjo APC contesting against PDP Northerner like Atiku/kwankwanso /Dakwambo /Markafi/Lamido with South east VP like Peter Obi

CASE B : Buhari/Osibanjo APC contesting against PDP Northerner like Atiku/kwankwanso /Dakwambo/Markafi/Lamido with South West VP like Fayose

Below is 2015 election results by zones.

kayfra:
Front page please. Very good analysis

This analysis just makes clear why SE is not a bride in the current political dispensation. Makes sense for PDP to field a SW VP candidate

Larufa:


Please can you provide realistic political reasons.

The last governorship elections in Anambra and Bayelsa are indicators for lower turnouts.

Anambra: Presidential 703,409 vs Gubernatorial 442,242
Bayelsa: Presidential 371, 739 vs Gubernatorial 241,850

Remember votes relate more to governorship elections than the presidential.

All what PMB/APC will need to do in the NC, SS and SE is to play defensive election tactics, no allocation of votes, number of votes counted will be the one declared.

In the NE, NW and SW, PMB/APC, will manipulate votes to maximum.

it will neither be free nor fair but that is the way it is in Naija politics.

PMB/APC controls the security forces and the INEC, which they will use to their advantage,

unlike during the 2015 elections the voting pattern is not clearly against the incumbent.

tuniski:


Presidential election usually has the highest voters turnout. 2019 will witness unprecedented new/first time voters most largely driven by the disastrous showing of buhari and the need to vote him out.


The choice is very personal to Nigerians thus: is your life better today than a few years past? The answer to most Nigerians is capital NO!!!!

The resolve to vote out buhari is very real and turning into a movement!

Our democracy is deepening. GeJ/PDP lost with all the federal might and that feat by the nigerian people will be repeated on February 16th 2019!