As the build-up to the 2019 general elections intensifies and the field becomes increasingly clearer, some personalities and groups are emerging as the likely major deciders of the outcomes of the elections especially at the presidential level.

We take look at some of the major players with real influence ahead of the 2019 general elections in Nigeria.

Here are Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election below:

10) Willie Obiano

Ordinarily, the APGA governor of Anambra State would not have made this list considering the rather limited reach of his party.

But from a broad strategic standpoint, given observed outreach efforts by the two main parties, especially the APC, to APGA, Obiano matters, as does APGA in the grand scheme of things ahead of the 2019 elections.

Since a known longstanding regional challenge to Buhari’scandidacy and this time, reelection bid, remains the South-East, the APC has viewed a likely alliance with APGA as a strategic master stroke that will enable it broaden its attainment of the minimum electoral requirement of 25% especially in the South-South and South-East regions of the country.

Currently, the party only governs one state in the South-East, Imo. It needs all the help it can get in the South-East, and with support appearing to be waning in the North-Central over the poor handling of the herdsmen-farmers clashes, expanding the support base will really help.

This will not be the first time that such an arrangement will be attempted and implemented. APGA and the PDP have in time past had such an alliance that saw the party adopt the PDP’s presidential candidate during the election.
Governor Willie Obiano

Given the seemingly strained relations existing between the PDP and APGA especially following the recent fierce governorship contest, the APC has sensed an opportunity. And their overtures have so far been met by a seemingly receptive APGA governor. But is Obiano, APGA? And is APGA strong enough to generate support for a party and president widely deemed to be anti-Igbo? The debate will continue.

All said, Nigeria’s political space remains sufficiently fluid at the moment and 2019 may yet be a special year, a year of disruption, a year of departure from the norm, in keeping with recent elections around the world where outsiders and insurgents have unsettled the system and emerged victorious.

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

9) Nyesome Wike

There are a number of powerful governors majorly belonging to the country’s two dominant political parties— the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP—whose sphere of influence now transcends their states, with major national political import especially as regards the 2019 elections. Rivers State governor, Wike is one of such.

A PDP strongman, he was instrumental in the emergence of the party’s current chairman, Uche Secondus. At a time the party battled internal crisis owing to an intense struggle for control between forces aligned to former Borno governor, Ali-Modu Sheriff, a man known for his solid war chest, and former Kaduna governor, Ahmed Makarfi, Wike emerged as a reliable counter-force with sufficient war chest to back Makarfi and subsequently install his preferred candidate to the party’s top post.

He also succeeded in laying the groundwork for his positioning as one of the party’s major power brokers ahead of 2019. It is little wonder that aspirants, including frontline contestant, Atiku Abubakar, have been visiting him to all but seek his blessing for 2019.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the aspirant Wike backs will likely secure the party’s nomination, given his commanding influence within the party and strong financial base. For a party that was once led by veteran politicians, retired generals and elder statesmen, Wike represents the face of the new power brokers within the PDP.

The hope of the party beyond the primaries will also depend on the likes of Wike who would be expected to bankroll the party’s presidential candidate, as well as contribute massive votes from Rivers and the entire South-South region to bolster the candidate’s chances at victory.

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

Olusegun Obasanjo

Obasanjo has remained a factor in the Nigerian political space since at least the civil war. Having deputized late General Murtala Mohammed as 3rd Chief of Staff, Supreme Military Council, between 1975 and 1976, he emerged head of state following the demise of Mohammed, serving from 1976 to 1979. His role as power broker can be said to have started at this point.

In the build-up to the 1979 elections, with the likes of Nnamdi Azikiwe and Obafemi Awolowo, respected veteran politicians contesting alongside populist Aminu Kano and wealthy Kanuri businessman-politician Waziri Ibrahim, Obasanjo was said to have backed Shehu Shagari, a former teacher who though previously had a stretch of participation in politics and appointments in federal cabinets, was deemed of lesser political profile by many.

Out of power, Obasanjo almost always appeared restless, criticising his successors publicly and organizing gatherings that raised serious questions around plans to undermine their governments. As far as public records go, only the short-lived Interim National Government of Ernest Shonekan and the Abdulsalami Abubakar government which freed Obasanjo from detention, were spared criticisms.

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

Shagari, Buhari, Babangida, Abacha, Yar’adua, Jonathan and Buhari again, were all openly criticised by Obasanjo during their reign.

For close watchers of Nigerian politics and students of the pattern of Obasanjo’s political behaviour throughout history, it did not come as a surprise when he dropped his latest explosive letter against the Buhari administration in which he also urged Buhari not to seek reelection in 2019. Obasanjo was acting true to type!

Being one to almost always assume something of an exalted moral position and ostensibly pontificate about governance, Obasanjo was quick to lay out a path forward for the country—Coalition for Nigeria Movement.

Obasanjo’s similar move against Jonathan ahead of the 2015 elections had been seen as a contributory factor in the emergence of the APC.

The fact that the former president has set about, alongside his lieutenants, mobilising hordes of grassroots supporters to sabotage the chances of the APC and the PDP, is testament to his commitment.

Contrary to his claims that his involvement in the movement did not include picking a candidate for president in 2019, many have identified some signs that point to a secret scheme to put forward a strong northern politician to challenge Buhari in 2019.

Some argue that the political dynamics ahead of the 2015 election which added force to Obasanjo’s opposition to Jonathan are quite different today. For one, Unlike Jonathan, Obasanjo did not hand-pick Buhari. In fact, Buhari had been his longstanding political rival, contesting against him in 2003 and against his chosen candidates and his party a couple of times after. More so, Buhari, also a retired general and veteran politician, would be less threatened by Obasanjo’s opposition than a Jonathan.

On a more strategic front, Obasanjo has opted for something of an experimental move this time— third force— as against backing a traditional opposition party. His choice was no doubt enforced by the fact that he had already resigned membership of the PDP and active participation in partisan politics. Also, it can be argued that the reasons cited for his opposition to Buhari are even less damning than the allegations he had repeatedly levelled against his former party. The obvious contradiction had he opted for the PDP would have amounted to an ethical conundrum lethal enough to self-sabotage and ultimately doom his latest ‘rescue mission’.

How much impact will Obasanjo have on the outcome of the 2019 presidential election? Only time will tell.

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

7) Rabiu Kwakwanso

Former Kano State governor and serving senator, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is one politician whose influence has continued to grow within the Nigerian political sphere.

In 2013, during his second stint as governor, he, alongside four other governors of the famous G7 faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP,) defected to then opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), a move that dealt a strategic blow to the PDP and bolstered the chances of the APC ahead of the 2015 general elections.

With governors Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers State), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Kwankwaso led a movement that significantly weakened the PDP and heralded a series of other high-profile defections including those of Senator Bukola Saraki and Hon Aminu Tambuwal, then speaker of the House of Representatives.

Having successfully participated in a move that elevated his standing as a national political force, and well aware of his bargaining power within the APC, Kwankwaso tossed his hat in the ring for the presidential ticket of the party, the threat of powerful aspirants like Muhammadu Buhari and AtikuAbubakar notwithstanding.

The Kano politician’s second position in the primaries underscored his stature in Nigerian politics, as he convincingly bested a veteran politician like Atiku Abubakar.

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

It has however not been smooth sailing for Kwankwaso within the APC. His first few months as a senator, having ended his governorship tenure on a high, with his deputy and close friend, Abdullahi Ganduje, succeeding him, were beset with corruption allegations principally from Kano pensioners who sent a petition to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), with the former governor approaching a High Court in the state to seek an injunction restraining the EFCC from arresting him. The turn of events also signaled the emergence of cracks in Kwankwaso’s relationship with Ganduje.

Kwankwaso’s frosty relationship with erstwhile partner Ganjuje has continued to deteriorate, with clashes between their supporters assuming a violent dimension. Both politicians have been locked in a bitter battle for political supremacy in Kano, even as the governor has strengthened relations with Abuja, tightened control of the reins in local politics as underscored by the controversial landslide victory of the APC in the recently concluded local government elections in the state, in a bid to fend off the advances of the kwankwasiyya movement, a band of red cap-wearing diehard supporters of Kwankwaso.

The combination of factors that has created great unease for Kwankwaso in the APC has led to a situation where the spectra of defection has continued to hover around him for years. This is also the main reason Kwankwaso matters in 2019.

An unsettled politician with his influence and following poses a threat to the ruling APC, as his defection would certainly cost the party some vital political capital especially in Kano where the APC secured its highest vote to propel its then candidate Buhari to a historic victory for the opposition in Nigeria.

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

Should Kwankwaso return to the PDP or join an alternate platform as is being mooted in some quarters, the APC would definitely pay a political price; the actual cost is however open to debate.

6) Bukola Saraki

Saraki is the President of Nigeria’s Senate. He became the president in an election where many APC members did not vote. His election became a contest for wits, guts and trickery between him and Tinubu who had wanted to install a National Assembly leadership. The APC victory in 2015 gave Tinubu a false sense of control, believing he was in charge of everyone within the APC rank. For Saraki however, Tinubu was only dancing on imaginary fame. And when the opportunity came to prove that some others were smarter, Saraki pulled the rug and laughed last.

While Tinubu and his anointed team rued their loss, Saraki hit the gavel to stamp his feet on Senate authority. However, with the operation of his office, he has proved that he is to be feared more than anyone else in the top echelon of Nigeria’s leadership.
Senator Bukola Saraki

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

An overtly ambitious politician, Saraki sees the office of President as befitting enough for him to occupy, but even though his closest allies in APC still doubt his loyalty to the party. They believe he is PDP at heart and APC by cloak. While his opponents seek to pull him down, he has so far proven to be smarter and broken every of their moves.

He has placed his grip on the Senate very firmly and has shown rebellious tendencies. Going towards 2019, he is seen as likely to return to PDP from where he will make another attempt for the presidency. His first was in 2011. Saraki is not trusted within the presidency and he knows it. However, he plays a smart power game with the presidency but connects very well with his acolytes and political family in the north central region of Nigeria. His major shortcoming is his lack of strong roots into the south south and south east regions. Besides, he is seen as morally damaged following a corruption case which he is still battling at the Code of Conduct Tribunal.

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election

You can get complete full list here below:

#TheList : Top 10 Most Influential Nigerian Politicians Ahead of 2019 Election