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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc (6205 Views)
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Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 1:27pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
On the runup to the 2019 polls,pdp are engrossed in looking for a candidate or tactics that may divide buhari's northern votes.this has made them to neglect their southern strongholds and flanks allowing apc to penetrate them deeply.none of those vying for the party's ticket can even win their states.the only northerners that have a chance of shocking buhari is the sultan and the emir of kano.yaradua the only northerner that defeated buhari had more electoral advantages than buhari.no other candidate has that now.the mass following buhari had wasnt cultivated in a day but years.atiku,tambuwal,saraki,dankwambo ars only popular among the elites. Apc is currently stronger in the south than pdp in the north.apc controls 8 sourhern states while pdp controls 2 northern states barring the defections of sokoto,kwara and benue governors.apc have a foothold in all the southeast and south south states.even bayelsa and enugu where there are weak,they are still strong as compared to pdp in buchi,borno or yobe.buhari will likely get a significant proportion of southern votes. Rivers:pdp will win rivers as usual but not with their usual margin.i see apc getting up to 300,000 votes in rivers mainly from rivers south east district controlled by senator abe.the combo of amaechi/abe/amachree may floor wike.many of those that rig for pdp in rivers have been detained or now in apc. Cross river:the govetnor is pdp but pro buhari and will not campaign against buhari but focus on his reelection.the senator representing central cross river is now in apc and very popular.he will deliver that zone to apc.i see buhari getting up to 100k votes.most of tge bigwigs in the state are in apc. Delta:the presence of ogboru in apc plus senator agege will give buhari a lot of urhobo votes.emami will deliver warri votes with apc making sure anioma,ijaw and isoko votes are not inflated.i see apc getting close to 300k votes here with pdp not getting more than a million. Edo: with adams as chairman,i see apc winning here outrightly or narrowly.apc votes in edo north will be inflated,pdp will win the central dominated by the ishans with apc narrowly winning the south.i see apc getting 300k with pdp 200k. Akwa ibom:many bigwigs here that usually delivered for pdp are now in apc.the alliance of nsim aekere/umanah will give pdp a headache.udom is friendly with buhari and will not campaign much against him.the oron people of akwa ibom south are pro apc plus a lot of ibibios.i see buhari polling over 200,000 with pdp polling 800,000. Bayelsa:this is where apc are most weakest in bayelsa but may pull a shocker with seriake's lukewarm attitude.i see timipre inflating his brass lga figure tk give apc at least 20k votes with pdp not getting above 200,000. Imo: apc will win or lose imo narrowly.rochas is a fighter and plus his senatorial bid,he will match pdp toe to toe.whoever wins will not do so with more than 100,000 votes with apc guaranteed of getting 25%. Anambra:obiano is comfortable to apc and averse to pdp.apga may field a candidate to reduce pdp votes.i see buhari polling over 100k with pdp struggling to get 300,000 Abia:alex otti will ally with apc and give buhari close to 100,000 votes with pdp not getting more than 300k. Ebonyi:umahi is pro buhari and will subtle campaign for him.i see apc getting more than 50k votes here with pdp still winning. In summary,apc may get up to 1.5 million votes in ss and over 500,000 in south east.buhari will win the west narrowly.i see him getting up to 22 millon with pdp getting close to 14 million.up apc 7 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by DeOTR: 1:41pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
Buhari will not have up to the total votes he had in 2015. And if you're banking on the number of states under APC in the south, you'll be shocked. 20 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 1:45pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
DeOTR:Its you that wil be shocked.if as a non incumbent he narrowly won,what will he get as an incumbent? Please compare obj's results in 1999 and 2007 to get a glimpse of what buhari will do 9 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by bjayx: 1:51pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
I don't buy it 2 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by luckyelems(m): 2:06pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
APC calculator 1 Like |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by MartinsOnyx(m): 2:14pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
These are mere postulations, hypothesis and wishful thinking. I would like you to also predict what will happen in the North central in comparism to the outcome in 2015. Truth is, Buhari has lost a lot of goodwill since assuming power. Lots of water have gone down the bridge and people can see clearly now. Put these words on marble. 16 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 2:16pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
bjayx:You dont need to,its not for sale nor in a market 4 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by otosa(m): 2:19pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
But don't forget that PVC is the only answer for this argument. |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by bjayx: 2:19pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1:U don't v to quote me for not digging that shiit U put up there. Stay away plsss 10 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by WATCHOVER(m): 2:22pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
I don't know what to say now |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 2:23pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
MartinsOnyx:You are right but his opponents inspire no confidence and will spark electoral disinterest.i predicted the ekiti polls and it happened as i predicted. Concerning the north central,i see apc narrowly winning kogi or losing it.the okun and igala votes may be divided but igbira votes will heavily go for buhari.i see buhari losing plateau narrowly like in 2015.i see him also losing benue narrowly.if saraki decamps,buhari will lose kwara narrowly.i see buhari winning fct and nasarawa narrowly and a landslide win in niger state more than he got in 2015.whoever wins the middle belt wont do so with more than 500k. 3 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by Nobody: 2:29pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
the person making this up, are you not tired of the state of this country so all that matters to you is buhari winning the election either by hook or crook.this government have failed in every aspect and no sane human being should be thinking of endorsing them for second term 17 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by ojobek: 2:29pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
Who wrote this nonsense? 10 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by damtan(m): 2:34pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
Get your PVC. As it stands, APC is the power house if this nation. Voting out an incumbent is a difficult task but possible with wonderful strategies and tactics. I just hope PMB will go. 7 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by fkpboy: 2:46pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1: You are on point 1 Like |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by Nobody: 2:52pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1:Come my friend, is it Muhamnadu Buhari you are awarding all these votes to in SS and SE? I laugh at you. You just seat behind your computer and award votes to Buhari. If Buhari gets more than 5% in any SE state, kniw it was rigged. The people are waiting for him to pay him back in 'Pyton Dance' swag. No joke meant here. In the SS, Buhari is seen as a monumental failure. The people see him as an Islamist planning to deep the Quoran in the Atlantic. Unfortunately, he has not done anything to redeem his image. Ogoni clean up remain a mirage. In SW, just don't use Ekiti to judge. Ekiti was trully won by PDP (story for another day). But come to look at it. If Fayemi was only able to get a little over 50%, with rigging, 30000 police, 15000 NSCDC, the army and N5000 vote buying, then you should know that it is not going to be easy for Buhari. Lagos is the biggest highly populated state. I can tell you that Buhari cannot win Lagos State even with Tinubu. No, not with this abyssmal performance. Do not forget that there is still a challenge to anyone who can show Buhari's single project since 2015. None has been found even when an SUV is at stake. Ambode will win convincingly, but Buhari, no way. If you live in Lagos, just sample opinion. Hard working Lagosians see APC as propagandists with Buhari as the biggest failure since independence. The NC is already fractured. Buhari will lose there or at best get 50%. Now that vote buying has been seen as a threat, it will be vehemently opposed across SS, SE, SW and NC. Do not think thay the following are not longer relevant I. OBJ Ii. IBB Iii. Danjuma. Iv. rAPC v. nPDP Ignore them at your own risk. 16 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by uche44(m): 3:10pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
For your information be informed that what PDP do in Rivers is the same thing that they did at Ekiti that makes it look as if that the just concluded election was rigged. They are trying to use their mouth and media to assume that they are dominating but in the grassroots where the game is played they are no where to be found. Am from Rivers State quote me anywhere that PDP will not win in my State although they may win some federal and state houses of Assembly for sure but taken over Rivers mmm! its a match made in heaven for them. 1 Like |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by Lipscomb(m): 3:11pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1:you try with this analysis but you overrated PDP in some States .especially in river state and bayelsa even in Delta state. If you go those states you will know APC get ground everyday for example 3of bayelsa governor abdicated from their position and they moved to APC . river state is one of the state that APC will take from PDP in 2019 the presence of rotimi ameach ,and the two senators they have upper hand .buhari will have his way in cross-river and embonyi I doubt ABia state because of KANU . 2 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by MrPolitics: 3:14pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
Your analysis are wrong. First of all, senators don't make party in Nigeria. The party makes the senator. Most senators in SS/SE were elected because of their party not themselves. Only few senators there have identity so they can't deliver as many votes as you may expect. I expect PMB to do better than he did in 2015 in those regions though due to the power of incumbency 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by Nobody: 3:20pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
Forget the analysis; buhari will win 2019. Not because of your votes, but because APC has perfected the art of rigging and Nigerians have perfected the art of selling their votes. 1 Like |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by OsasAca1(m): 3:42pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1: I don't like to comment on anything that involve Buhari and APC because people like you are celebrating when we supposed to be worried... Nigeria needs a radical and vibrant leader who would be more considerate about all that affect the well-being of his Citizens... You can't possibly be in your right mindframe and be thinking of a victory for Man whose Governance has been criticized by majority of the people... Goodluck Jonathan was by far one of the worse nightmare for Nigeria and we voted him out, by the special Grace of God, Nigeria would vote this Man out... Your calculations might be logical to you but remember only God knows tomorrow. 6 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 3:54pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
damtan:Ya but in 2023. 1 Like |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 3:56pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
OsasAca1:Nigeria would not vote him out for any pdp cansidate like atiku. 2 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 4:04pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
Lipscomb:My analysis doesnt depend on senators except where they are very powerful like senator abe in rivers a enoh in cross river 2 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by DeOTR: 5:17pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1:This is 2018 man. Jonathan, an incumbent, narrowly lost for a reason...and don't compare Obj's regime to Buhari's. Go to INEC offices nationwide. People are getting registered to vote, not for Buhari, but to send him back home. Except you're mistaking power of incumbent for the ability to rig, Buhari will lose. 9 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by senatordave1(m): 5:40pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
DeOTR:Many of those registering are doing so because of personal or social needs like bank account opening,empowerment purposes etc.as far as buhari is up against a northerner,many southerners wont vote.less i forget,ipob will likely declare a boycott that day .voters turnout in the east wont be up to 2 million.rivers will also be affected favouring buhari. By the way,nobody has the ability or capacity to rig nore than an incumbent as far as nigeria is concerned. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by SamuelAnyawu(m): 5:43pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
1 Like |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by DeOTR: 6:00pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1:I've been to at least 10 INEC offices in 4 different state in the last one month. Most people have other means of identifications- NationaNational ID Card comes to mind. Voters registration is apparently much more difficult for people than NIMC. I was in Suleja INEC office today and people have to be there as early as 4am to make the list. In essence, no one would go through that stress when there are alternatives. Buhari has lost people's confidence and many people will vote purposely to against the President, not because they are interested in who wins. Except Buhari has rigging in mind, he's not coming back. 10 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by diegwu02: 6:04pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
senatordave1:this makes lots of sense.. thoughtfully deciphered. but PDP wont make up to 6 million votes though. 3 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by NASTYNASOSO: 6:46pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
DeOTR:HMMMMMM ALL THIS PAPER TIGER CONFIDENCE YOU HAVE. KINDLY SHOW US THE OPPOSITION CANDIDATE THAT WILL TAKE THE SHOW 3 Likes |
Re: Pdp's Quest To Divide Northern Votes May Result In A Southern Surprise From Apc by WATCHOVER(m): 6:55pm On Jul 19, 2018 |
Thanks op PDP are carefully planning |
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