In this article, we are going to analyze the political clout of South Western Nigeria from 2011 and their impact on Presidential elections in Nigeria.

In 2011 election, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in Eastern Nigerian (South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%)) was 67.0% while SW was 32.8% and they repeated this turn out in 2015 again.

While other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16290593 votes casted in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4613712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11676881.

Out of this 16290593 votes casted in the South, 13890271 votes were casted for PDP. South West even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2786417 votes, leaving South East with the lowest population and South South with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4985246 and 6118608 votes respectively.

While South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22495187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc vote, while South East as PDP's strongest hold.

In 2015, South West gave 1851416 votes to PDP while giving 2433193 votes to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581777, advantage Anambra in the South East rendered useless by giving PDP 660762, returning advantage to PDP by 78985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1851416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage.

While South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East as PDP's strongest hold and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South.

While South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12853162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

Finally it is important to point out 4 things:

1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 6093068 votes.

South West voted 2786417 for PDP, 1369943 for ACN, 321609 to CPC and 30906 for ANPP.

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1989982 votes.

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card reader recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President to try 7 times before been captured, turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%.

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16777385 votes, beating Buhari with 1352464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas.

Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total vote, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South, while South East and South South provided the other 11%.

Statistics from 2007, when His Excellency, the former Vice President, ran on that platform equally confirms this.

As a result of this, the South West can never offer a bloc vote. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they CAN NEVER influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities.

SOURCES:
https://naijagists.com/final-inec-results-of-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-by-state-buhari-wins-21-states-gej-picks-16/

www.nigerianmuse.com/20110419040622zg/sections/general-articles/details-of-2011-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/

Kyase:
There no difference between 2015 elections and what will come in 2019....
Churches were preaching against Buhari in 2014, the same is happening now...
Oyedepo prayed and cursed the gate of hell to open against Jonathan's enemies,same is happening now......
Igbos and social media was on fire for Jonathan, so it's now for Atiku
But at the end Sai baba Buhari gave Jonathan the beating of his life....
The same thing will happen to Atiku the gay...
All this happened when Buhari was playing away ooooo, now that Sai baba is playing home, Atiku sorry for your gay asssss....

EastGold:
Inconsequential analysis. Dare the southwest at your peril.
We determine who becomes the president

IamAtikulate:

That was before he was demystified. You forgot that Kwankwanso, Tambuwal, Saraki, Dogara, Atiku, OBJ, Mbaka, Ortoms, where with him, but now, where are they?

Kyase:
There no difference between 2015 elections and what will come in 2019....
Churches were preaching against Buhari in 2014, the same is happening now...
Oyedepo prayed and cursed the gate of hell to open against Jonathan's enemies,same is happening now......
Igbos and social media was on fire for Jonathan, so it's now for Atiku
But at the end Sai baba Buhari gave Jonathan the beating of his life....
The same thing will happen to Atiku the gay...
All this happened when Buhari was playing away ooooo, now that Sai baba is playing home, Atiku sorry for your gay asssss....

SarkinYarki:


You people forget that many people like me votes for Buhari in 2015 and in 2019 we will be shifting those votes enmasse to Atiku ...truth be told Buharis only chance is brazen result alteration and trust me that too will be challenged to hell and back and if Buhari is not careful he will be dragged out of Aso rock in shame like Gbagbo by British commandoes...everybody is tired of Buhari

Ganzagangan:
Truly yannnmmirri analysis.

You guys would soon revert to your delusional clamour for biafra, seems it doesn't matter now.

As usual when you guys lose, you would start wailing.

Sai Baba.

Kyase:

My sister and some of my friends that voted against Buhari, are vowing to vote for him next year....
We lose 1, we get 5 in returns...
Sai baba 27million votes

Kyase:

My sister and some of my friends that voted against Buhari, are vowing to vote for him next year....
We lose 1, we get 5 in returns...
Sai baba 27million votes

Kyase:
Without Kwankaso, Tambuwal, idiotic saraki Dogara, Atiku are useless.... Ortom akume made him governor.... Mbaka is so useless he couldn't win a local government for Buhari... Buhari has been flogging Atiku in adamawa since no be today..... Bros all those guys where there because of baba....

IamAtikulate:

Ok. We shall see then. I hope you are not expecting votes from Shia moslems.

Kyase:

I know two shia that are campaigning for Buhari right now bros

IamAtikulate:

Buhari have lost Middlebelt, Shia moslem, Northern christians, NE, some Kwankwasiyya members, part of Sokoto. We know that once Atiku starts campaigning with restructuring, he would cut deep into SW APC and lock down SS. SE is always on standby to handle the final blow.

SarkinYarki:


It's clear you are not a Tiv man

IamAtikulate:

Only 2 out of 10 million? I know many fulanis that are campaigning against Buhari now.

Kyase:
I know two shia that are campaigning for Buhari right now bros

IamAtikulate:

Only 2 out of 10 million? I know many fulanis that are campaigning against Buhari now.

EastGold:
Inconsequential analysis.
Dare the southwest at your peril.

We determine who becomes the president

EternalTruths:



Shut up before I pour your hot water.


Shia campaigning for which Buhari.



You think we are nursery school children here.

IamAtikulate:
The Insight:

1. If SW had given all their votes to Buhari in 2011, Jonathan would have still won. So in 2011, SW votes couldn't have make any difference.

2. In 2015, if SW had boycotted the entire election, Buhari would have still won, but if SE had boycotted the election, it would have been a landslide win for Buhari.

3. If Yoruba backed APC had boycotted the election leaving Igbo backed PDP to vote, Buhari would have still won this means that SW APC's votes can't make any difference.

4. If the card reader malfunction didn't disenfranchise SE/SS and their turnout was like that of 2011 and other previous elections before 2015 and other regions voted for Buhari massively like they did, Jonathan would have won the election by 1.6 million votes.

Finally, under a free and fair election, SW APC can never match Ndi Igbo nationwide.