There are certain things that will help the APC to retain power and ensure that President Buhari wins. He has massive electoral value and his stronghold states are still there like in the Northwest which includes Kebbi, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Kogi, along with North east; which includes Borno, Yobe,Gombe and Bauchi of course the South-West is a no-go area.

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One of the factors listed that could negatively affect the president is the economic recession. Right under President Buhari, Nigeria slipped into recession in August 2016. According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the second quarter of 2016 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by -2.06%.Many economists attributed the recession to poor economic planning and inadequate concrete implementation of economic planning, high inflation rate; high interest rate, high taxation, and policy conflict. Most significantly, it was attributed to the over dependent of Nigeria government on oil for over 60% of its total revenues and the country for over 90% of her foreign exchange earnings.

Here are Sample of voting strength from all region.

NO OF REGISTERED VOTERS------------------------------------------------ 73,944,312
MINIMUM VOTE EXPECTED NO OF ACCREDITED VOTERS-----------------------37,746,490
PREDICTED NO OF VOTERS EXPECTED TO SIT AT HOME-----------------------35,675,515
MINIMUM NO OF VOTERS PREDICTED TO CAST THEIR VOTE------------------- 35,432,083
LOWEST NO OF EXPECTED REJECTED VOTERS-----------------------------------844,519
LOWEST NO OF EXPECTED VALID VOTERS-------------------------------------- 587,564

The North-west

Kano: It is all the way Buhari. While, let say that the current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari could garner some 70% per cent votes for APC against 30 percent for PDP.

The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 70% against 30% for PDP

Kaduna: Buhari is the aspirant to beat here with APC 80 per cent of the votes while PDP may struggle with the remaining 20 per cent.

The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 80% against 20% for PDP

Jigawa: Delegates here are sympathetic to Buhari. Voting could be 80 percent for APC against 20 percent for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 70% against 30% for PDP

Sokoto: Delegates here are also sympathetic to Aminu waziri Tambuwal. Voting could be 51 percent for APC against 49 percent for PDP.
The odd favour former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
49% for APC against 51% for PDP

Kebbi: It is 80 percent for APC against 20% for PDP
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 80% against 20% for PDP

Zamfara: Whilst the battle for votes here will be moderate, Atiku has an edge that could produce a 70 percent vote for PDP against nil percent for APC voting percentage in favor of the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar (600,000 voters lost to PDP)
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
70% for PDP against nil % for APC (No vote for APC for now)

Katsina: There is passionate home advantage here and the voting is Buhari all the way. It’s a no contest zone.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari by 90% percent for APC against 10% for PDP.

The North-East
Borno: Buhari is strong here with an impressionable presence of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar . It is 70% for APC against 30% for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
70% for APC against 30% for PDP

Yobe: Here, Buhari has a strong footing that will be evident in the voting pattern. He is likely to poll over 80 percent of total votes for APC against 20% for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 80% against 20% for PDP

Gombe: Delegates here are for Buhari with a not-too-bad outing for former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar. Say 60% for APC against 40% for PDP
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
60% for APC against 40% for PDP

Adamawa: Here is a no-go-area for Buhari. Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar clearly has the upper hand. It is 60 percent for PDP against 40% for APC.

The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
60% for PDP against 40% for APC


Taraba: Delegates here may have signed up for Buhari, perhaps in the region 55 percent votes for PDP against 45 percent for APC.
The odd favour former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
55% for PDP against 45% for APC

Bauchi: Chances are that Buhari will pull his weight here, albeit with some 80 percent for APC against 20 percent for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
80% for APC against PDP 20%

The North-central
Kogi: Votes here will be 55% for APC against 45% for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
55% for APC against 45% for PDP

Kwara:

Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar will clean up the Kwara votes with 60 percent for PDP against 40 percent for APC, Atiku may gather more votes based on the influence of the former governor, Bukola Saraki, who is believed to be sympathetic to the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar cause.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
60% for PDP against 40% for APC


Niger: Delegates in Niger may tilt in the direction of Buhari, even though former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar is poised to fight hard. It is 55% percent for APC against 45 percent for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
55% for APC against 45% for PDP

Plateau: Current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari is on the prowl here and is sure to hold sway. Delegates will boost his chances here over and above 51 percent for PDP against 49% for APC.
The odd may favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
51% for PDP against 49% for APC

Benue: The battle in Benue State promises to throw up some good challenge, however with a 53 percent for PDP and 47% for APC. Voting in favor of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
53% for PDP against 47% for APC

Nasarawa: Indications are that delegates here have the backing of Buhari, but not without some good showing by former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar with 48 percent against 52 percent for Buhari.
.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 52% against 48% for PDP

FCT
Votes here will be 51% for APC against 49% for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
51% for APC against 49% for PDP

The South-west
Lagos: It is too close to call but may go the way of current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari with a 51 percent for APC against 49 percent for PDP. Thou there is high level of street campaign and town hall sensitization programmes going on in Lagos which is based on how to impact the life of average Nigerian and how to vote e.g washing of hands before coming to the polling units, so that the card reader can capture your finger prints/get your PVC.
The odd may favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
PDP 49% - APC 51%

Ogun: Current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari is the issue here. Ogun may vote 53 percent for APC against 47 percent for PDP
The odd favor Current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari for Now...
APC 53% against 47% for PDP

Oyo: Although with a strong Buhari presence, APC may clean up votes here slightly, however, to the percentage of 55 percent for APC against 45 percent for PDP.
The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 55% against 45% for PDP

Osun: Votes here will be hotly contested but with a slight Buhari edge. It is 49 percent for PDP against 51 percent for APC.
The odd favour current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 51% against 49% for PDP

Ekiti: The battle for votes here will elicit interest and the turnout is most likely to be too close to call with a 49 percent for PDP against 51 percent for APC.
Too close to call but favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 51% against 49% for PDP

Ondo: It looks like 46 percent for PDP against 54 percent for APC match between the two front runners.
• The odd favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
APC 54% against 46% for PDP


The South-south
Delta: The terrain here is safe for PDP with predict voting of 70 percent for PDP while 30 percent for APC. Voting here may not be too close to call, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar appears to have made some inroads into Delta and may come out very strong; Buhari may not be able to neutralize such a hold this time.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
70% for APC against 30% for PDP

Edo: Here, the odds are clearly in favor of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar , however with an equally strong Buhari presence. Voting here may likely go 51 percent for APC against
49 percent in favor of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
The odds nearly favor current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari.
APC 51% against 49% for PDP

But reverse may be the case.

Cross River: A voting pattern in the region of 70 percent for PDP against 30 percent for APC in favor of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
30% for APC against 70 % for PDP

Rivers: The race here is best described as a no contest duel. It is former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar all the way and at the very best, it would be 68 percent for PDP against 32 percent for APC.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
32% for APC against 68% for PDP

Akwa Ibom: Although Atiku appears to have an upper hand here, it can be anything above 70 percent for PDP against 30 percent for APC. With strong influence from Sentor, Godswill Akpabio has increase APC margin.
The odd favour former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
30% for APC against 70% for PDP

Bayelsa: The race here is best described as a no contest duel. It is former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar all the way and at the very best, it would be 80 percent for PDP against 40 percent for APC.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
40% for APC against 60% for PDP

The South-east
Imo: The absence of Governor Rochas Okorocha of the state will help destabilize the chances of Buhari, being a close ally. It however stands at 55% for PDP against 45% for APC. I can say that it is little difficult to predict the actual percentage in this zone because both parties are doing well in the campaign. But any of that percentage will emerge.
One factor that seems to aid Rochas Okorocha an edge is Free Education System for the indigence of the state from tertiary to the lowest level and the control of the public servant and Artisans/Hoodlums

One factor that seems to give former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar an edge here is religion due to peter obi.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
APC 45% against PDP 55%


Enugu: Capital of the Eastern Region!! Voting here also presents a 70 percent vote for PDP against 30% for APC with a lot of new empowerment scheme, stomach-based and issue-based campaign with religion still a major factor.
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar holds the ace here. Thou, Rev Father Mbaka argued that Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi are stingy, they refuse to donate to his church. Even, with the effort and voters strength of the ex-governor chime.
The odd still Favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
30% for APC against 70% for PDP

Anambra: Nothing significantly changes here too as the whole of South-east may toe the same line. Maintaining good relationship with Federal Government, Contacts, allocation awards and second Niger Bridge is also part of the priority of the present governor, Chief Obiano whom is an APGA party.
But, it will still go the way of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar with 60 percent for PDP against 40% for APC.
Even Thou, some clergymen questions the President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari performance so far.
.
The odd still favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
40% for APC against 60% for PDP

Abia: The God's own state as Abia otherwise is called is also likely to the Favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar with 60% percent for PDP against 40% percent for APC. It is still a factor of Stomach-based and Issue-based campaign with religion which plays major factor.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
40% for APC against 60% for PDP

Ebonyi: The last of the South-east states is not going to differ significantly. Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar enjoys an upper hand here too. No thanks to religion. But thanks to Stomach-based campaign and the PDP governor Umahi. It is a 60 percent for PDP against 40 percent for APC. It shows in favor of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
The odd favor former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar
APC 40% for APC against PDP 60%.

From the above outcome of the whole 36 state predicted votes analyzed. It can be known or recommended that the APC-led or PDP-led party may strongly win by this percentage margin 59 percent against 41 percent. Bedsides, with the power of incumbency and massive turn out of poor valuable Nigerians loyal to Buhari. The current President, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari has a strong indication of winning 2019 presidential election by 3 to 10 percent margin base from our current research and findings. Nevertheless, there is also a strong indication that the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar. may win if he can knockouts more than 60% of SIT AT HOME VOTERS with Operation Declare your PVC through stomach Infrastructure-based and issue- based campaign. Three square meal per day campaign from region to region --- ward to ward in 2019.

Well Finger crossed, until February 2019 for the breaking news. WARNING!! Figures may change based on the performance of both parties campaign strategies before February 2019.

Zamfara State is for Buhari. APC does not have candidates for other elections but for the Presidency it's Buhari.

Where are you getting all these votes for Atiku in the SW?. PDP is in disarray in the SW. The people who are going to vote are being offered nothing by the party. It's 70%, 30% APC except in Governorship, Senatorial, Reps and State Houses where plenty of new parties are going to have strong showing.

Funny. This is an APC op. You gave Buhari 90% in some northern states, while giving Atiku 20%. In the south east, you gave Buhari 40% even going to the extent of giving him 45% in Imo. If Buhari gets up to 15% in both Abia and Anambra send me a message, i promise to send you 35,000 naira.