We are in another electioneering season in Nigeria. Political parties and their candidates are deploying fair and foul means to attain victory.

Ross Perot once said, "War has rules, mud wrestling has rules—politics has no rules." Well, that is truly the art of politics and the science of politicking.

Money is the heart of the game of politics. A close friend contesting for House of Representatives have so far spent over #400m in campaigns! This should be expected in Nigeria puzzling democracy.

In recent times, I have been inundated with enquiries from my associates (from near and far away locations) about the political events in Nigeria and what will be the outcome of the forthcoming elections. They want to know whether or not Nigeria will break-up, break-down or break-way.

I have refrain from commenting or analysing these sensitive political issues for obvious reasons. I have observe these political events play out with deep concern just like every other citizens.

Having contested an election, been involve in campaign committee at varied level as well as been a campaign strategy consultant/adviser to varied politicians across different locations of Nigeria, I should be able to forecast the outcome of this election with available indices and insight.
Please, permit me to also assess and, maybe, interrogate the political events that have being shaping Nigeria and how these occurrence have impacted on the quest for power rotation.

Kindly foll[quote][/quote]ow me through these reflection and forecast in these discourse.



[b]Who will be the next Nigeria President?:The ways of Nigeria politics

As it is in Nigeria and most democratic country across the world, Presidential election is a straight fight between the candidate of the two leading political parties. Other candidates from smaller parties may choose to contest, however, the game is a battle of the big parties.

In Namibia, there have SWAPO and DTA as the major parties. In multi-party Germany, the two leading parties are the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

The United States also has two major political parties: the Democrats and the Republicans. The UK political system has the Conservative Party and the Labour Party as the leading parties in their multi-party system. Even in South Africa, the two major parties are the ANC and the Democratic Alliance.

So, in Nigeria, we can establish with certainly that Muhammadu Buhari of All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of People's Democratic Party (PDP) are the two leading contenders.

The other seventy-three(73) candidates from other political parties contesting for 2019 Presidential election may not be taken seriously unless and until most of them go into merger and begin to build enduring structures in the 8809 wards across 774 Local Government Areas of Nigeria and get committed party loyalist in 119,973 polling units across the Nation.

That merger or collaboration will be too late now. However, I will examine this political parties merger prospect later in this discourse.

Now, let me get into the real issues.
First, I find it really disturbing that the leading candidates in this political season have engaged in utterances and conducts that portray them as being insensitive or irrational towards the masses, or even some level of derangement.

From Buhari mix up of dates of his services as petroleum minister to his inability to remember that he was to hand over the APC flag to the gubernatorial candidate up to his inability to read his own handwriting and many more speaks volumes of his state of mind.

Atiku has not fair better either. In the course of the campaign, he promised enriching his friends and further vowed to privatise NNPC if he is elected.

In the same tongue but another venue, he promised building refinery in Akwa Ibom state. He pledged to grant amnesty to corrupt persons so far as the return their loot.

Only recently, in an award ceremony, he was video leaving the microphone and talking to the award. To me, all these amount to insensitivity to the masses or dementia or discomposure or all of them rolled in one.



Who will be the next Nigeria President? The unusual followers

In 2015, my friends that where supporting and promoting PDP and Goodluck Jonathan(GEJ) had perhaps rightly based their argument on GEJ relative youthfulness, being a christian and from south, his calmness and his academic achievement and his region-coming from the Niger-Delta State that produced Nigeria oil with practically nothing to show.

The South-South(SS), South-East(SE) and a reasonable part of South-West(SW) and North-Central(NC) align with the Jonathan presidential projection in 2011 and 2015.

Today, most of these folks, especially from the South, that supported GEJ in 2015 because the positive qualities they ascribed to him, all are now supporting a 72 years Atiku from Fulani in the North whereas there exist very cerebral, eloquent, prolific, productive, skillful, young, pragmatic, forward-thinking, highly intelligent and incorruptible candidates in the 2019 Presidential race from the South such as Chuks Nwachuku, Donald Duke, Kingsley Moghalu, Oby Ezekwelie, Fela Durotoye, Chris Okotie, Sowore etc.

What have change about Atiku's productivity, age, region and religion which they made me to understand was what Jonathan had and Buhari and Atiku lacked when they contested against Jonathan in 2011 and 2015 respectively?

I knew then and convinced now that it is all the game of politics or better still poliTRICKS. This is what Niccolo Machiavelli assert that " Politics have no relation to morals".

It was all politics in 2015 and it is still partisan politics and political party inclination in 2019 and indeed, at all times. These actions of my friends from the South never had anything to do with extensive objectivity, collective progress, national development, cohesion, inclusive prosperity or changing the narrative about Nigeria quest for purposeful leadership.

Answer : SAI BABA

Who will be the next Nigeria President ? How you don't win an election

These are things that does not win elections:

1. Large crowd in campaign rally does not translate to winning election. This event may be necessary and if properly harness, could translate to consolidated votes that may give electoral one-upmanship. However, mega crowd in campaign rally do not lead to winning an election.

2 Electoral debates has very little to add to electoral fortune in Nigeria other than valuable entertainment. It is never an ingredients for winning election except when contesting in campuses as union or association leaders. Obasanjo did not debate with Falae in 1999 but won. In 2003, Obasanjo again never debated with Buhari but he still won. In 2007, Yar'Adua refuse to debate with Buhari and he won. GEJ didn't debate with Buhari and others but won the 2011 election. Buhari refuse to debate with GEJ in 2015 but won the Presidential election that year. Buhari and Atiku didn't turn up for debate with Moghalu, Ezekwelie and Durotoye, but I can bet with the air I breath that non of those that participated in the debate will win this election.

3. Endorsement or adoption of a candidate by a group or groups does not translate to electoral victory. Association and groups (such as cultural and socio-cultural groups, traditional Kingdom and institutions, religious organisations, spiritual groups, witches/wizards, bed-to-wealth/prostitute association, trade association, area-boys/agbero unions, religious groups, prophets & prophetess movements, professional groups, ethnic militia groups, fraternity & confraternity, marabouts, occult and cult groups, militant groups, metaphysical groups, separatist organisation,pseudo -nationalist organization, religious militant movements, retired military and para-military association and many more) do not orchestrate electoral victory. They may just serve as a PR tool for electioneering and politicking.

4. Election Polls (Online and offline) with their contradictory and sometimes subjective verdicts do not win elections. Most importantly, online polls have no significant to election results. Like kayode Ogundamisi will say, "Pollsters don't have PVC!"

5. Social media 'like and shares' and 'retweet' do not win election.They may by a relevant platform for enunciating programme and informing followers and debate issues or even spreading information. Most social media warlord and attack dogs do not event have voters card.

6. Oratory, fluency or eloquent speeches in campaigns events and well-scripted propaganda and interviews do not win elections.

I have come to learn that election are won by unrivalled and well-thought-out strategies, structures, systems underpinned by past performance, strong platform, good publicity, intensive mobilisation, organisations, location godfathers and foot-soldiers and perhaps rigging(in places the candidate is celebrated).

It must be further propelled by popularity, insightful and well-articulated messages. The above elements must be driven by money and more money. These are the ingredients of election winning. Will Rogers stated that "a fool and his money are soon elected".

The deployment of ICT to elections engendering use of PVC and related tools have finally overcome the challenge of election manipulation, ballot-box snatching, election result falsification, thuggery have largely put election banditry into extinction.

Who will be the next Nigeria President ? The ways of untiring politicians

Atiku would have become the Nigeria President way back in 2003 when almost all the PDP governors and some All People's Party (APP) governors where supporting him and had ask him to contest against Obasanjo.

The political machinery and party structures where in the control of this governors. These political machinery and party structures are (to an extent) still being control by these state governors except in few states like Lagos, Yobe, Sokoto, Osun and elsewhere.

A day could be a long time in politics. Atiku fail to use the opportunity provided by those governors in 2003. Today, so much has transpired politically.

Atiku's name is now synonymous with cross-carpeting. He has move from PDP to Action Congress(AC) which many Nigerian then referred to as Atiku and Company and contested for President in 2007.

He when back to PDP in 2011 and contested against Jonathan for Presidential nomination and loss. He tarried for a while in PDP before moving to APC with Saraki, Kwakwaso and others, where he assisted in effectively working against Jonathan from winning the 2015.

He decamp back to PDP in November 2017 and thereafter clinched the party ticket for 2019 presidential election.

Mao Zedong had declared that "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed".

These are among the many issues he will be explaining to Nigeria, especially the north, as we go into the polls on the 16th February.

In this tales of Atiku, the Igbo seem to his biggest fans and supporters. Ohaneze Indigbo where the early socio-cultural organisations that adopt him.

The politics of South-East in this post military era is intriguing.The late Odumegwu Ojukwu founded and contested on the platform of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and came 3rd position in 2003 after Buhari with minimal vote especially from the South-East(SE).

I would have expected that Ojukwu will have swept the SE votes and all the governors in the SE would have been from APGA just like late Bola Ige from the South-West(SW) who controlled that region between 1999 to 2003 and Tinubu is now controlling the same region since 2011 till date.

I had envisaged a scenario where APGA would have control all the SE states and by now, PDP and APC would have been negotiating with the party and there would have made a case for a Igbo President from a position of strength just like South-West Alliance for Democracy(AD) in 1999.

It could be recalled that the AD when into collaboration with the then All People's Party (APP) and Falae who is from the South-West was the Presidential flag bearer and Umaru Shinkafi(APP) from North-West(NW) was his running mate.

Over the years, AD transform to AC and to ACN and finally merge with other parties to become APC. They South-West is highly influential in this Buhari government. Their son is the Vice President and may become President in 2023.

The dominant and influential party in the South-East today is PDP. APGA is only surviving in Anambra state.

My sincere desire and expectations was, rather than endorsing Atiku, Ohaneze Indigbo should have adopted their own very brilliant and foreword-thinking son/daughter like the brilliant Chuks Nwachuku or Kingsley Mogalu or Oby Ezekwelizie or any other Igbo person after taking them through mock election or screening.

Thereafter, Ohaneze will have build support across South and North and also deliver consolidated vote to this Igbo nominee within Igbo States.

My further wish was for the Igbo nominee to contest under APGA to transform the party from regional to national party.
Even if the Igbo candidates did not win, atleast, the Igbo will have spoken with one voice and acted in unity of purpose.


This will have spoken for them in future election. The Yoruba took this position in 1999 and ended up with Obasanjo even though the Yorubas had preferred Falae Today, the South-West have remained a critical factor in Nigeria politics and will remain so for a long time.

Who will be the next Nigeria President ?- The growing syndrome of impossibility

While activities in the nation are intense because of the coming election, some statements have fluctuated between hate speech and fake news which has the tendency to degenerate to pogrom like Rwanda in 1994.

This is regrettable and the government must find practical ways and means to bring to justice, fake news and hate speech perpetrators.

Electoral actors and stakeholders-the voters,masses, INEC, the security and the observers(local and international) must also combat this growing menace of fake news and hate speech.

It will ultimately be insensitive for Buhari social media warlord to keep castigating Atiku (well respected Nigeria and PDP Presidential candidate) and addressing him as Atiku, Atikuloot or Atikroock.

This is without considering the fact he had not been convicted of corruption by any law court in Nigeria.

Atiku is in the race and stand the chances of winning just as his opponents.
These social media warlords should focus on issues and not character assassination even though they may want to use it as a political weapons.

At the end, the loser will continue with his normal life and the winner will only spent 8 or 4 years as the case may be.
We need to begin to develop our democracy and electoral system beyond small-minded tendencies.

The assertion of Winston Churchill that "In war, you can only be killed once, but in politics, many times" is as true today as it was so many years ago.

Another instance of hate speech was when Buhari succeeded in devastating Boko Haram and the North-East was beginning to experience peace, It was claim by the opposition that Buhari was their leader and sponsor, and so, they refrain from fighting their leader.

When many Chibok and Dapchi school girl where release by Boko Haram, and despite the involvement of Red Cross in Switzerland, it was still been claimed by this same opposition that it was fake as Buhari (been their leader) and Boko Haram collaborated.

When Boko Haram, in few instance,overran the army base, these same opponents began using this sad incidence to play politics by claiming that insurgents in the North-East was getting worst in Buhari's era than previous government.

The opposition was celebrating the massacre of over 100 soldiers including posting fake pictures and videos of dead soldier men online to discredit Buhari and paint the country as insecure. This is a clear case of propaganda, hate speech and incitement.

I consider this act as very dangerous and treacherous politics.We must collectively resist playing bad politics with national security and soldiers lives.

I have not heard of a President that will celebrate the killing of his own country men. I am yet to hear of any commander -in-chief that will celebrate the killing of his own troops.

We need to detest from these hate speeches and reclaim our mindset from fake news. Indeed, Voltaire affirm that "those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities".

Who will be the next Nigeria President ? - Buhari vs Atiku achievement


The leading candidates in this contest are pointing towards what they have done in the past and will be doing if elected or re-elected.

Buhari achievement that he is pointing toward include: Implementation of TSA, BVN and VAIDS; railway, road and power projects across the country; recovery of looted funds to a tune of about #700bn; Agriculture revolution resulting in having highest non oil sector exports ever; reviving dead fertiliser companies; Payment of outstanding pensions to Biafra warlords, NITEL and Nigeria Airways staff; social intervention scheme (NPower scheme,10k TraderMoni loans, N5k social intervention scheme); Payment of debt owed to various local contractors; Securing the release of over 100 Chibok and another 76 Dapchi girls and many others. These achievement,he claim, where delivered with lean resources. What he call "doing more with less."

Atiku seem to take a contrary view of Nigeria growth and her prosperity index. His views are consistent with world financial organisations. It was reported that "according to the World Poverty Clock, created by Vienna-based World Data Lab, 88,011,759 Nigerians are currently living in extreme poverty" and In June 2018, the Brookings Institution named Nigeria as "the poverty capital of the world, with 86.9 million extremely poor people".

Atiku is referring Nigerians his past achievement as Vice President especially in the area of privatisation, power, GSM and many more. I will agree that Atiku has a well-thought-out policy documents that encompasses: The Job Creation and Entrepreneurship; Poverty Alleviation and Economic Empowerment; Infrastructure Development(Transportation Infrastructure, Power Infrastructure, Power Infrastructure, Housing Infrastructure, Refining and Petrochemical Infrastructure); Human Capital Development; Education; Youth and Women Empowerment; Sports, Culture and Tourism; Arts, Entertainment and Creative Industries; Governance(Restructuring, Anti-Corruption and Rule of Law); National Security; International Relations.

According to him, these items will be funding through:
Infrastructure funding;
Diversifying the economy;
Democratizing prosperity;
Building savings culture;
Budget deficit financing.

Atiku has always presented very brilliant and well-intended manifestos since 2007. The present Niger-Delta ministry where the product of his 2007 manifesto which Yar'Adua government eventually adopted and implemented.

Who will be the next Nigeria President ? - What the masses will look at in 2019 campaigns


1. Past trends and precedence: Buhari has a enviable past records of been Governor, Minster of petroleum, top military commander, Head of State, PTF Chairman and current President after three fail attempts and celebrated in the north. Atiku was a custom director and later Vice President with allegation of corruption around his personality.

2. Political party: Buhari and Atiku are in two main political parties in Nigeria. A vote against Buhari might just be a vote for Atiku and vice-versa.

3. Zoning: The office of the President have been zone to the north by the two major parties. Atiku is from the North-East while Buhari is from the North -West which is the biggest region with largest voting strength.

4. The choice of Vice-Presidential (VP) candidate: Peter Obi from the South-East is the VP candidate to Atiku. South-East have the least voting strength amongst the six geo-political zones in Nigeria. Yemi Osibanjo from the South-West is the VP candidate to Buhari. South-West has the second highest voting strength in Nigeria.

5. Past Performance: The masses in the north believed that Buhari has an enviable track record of performance as Head of State and President. Atiku past performance is still shrouded in debate and controversy. Though, citizen welfare ranked high among voters, the progress made by the Buhari administration in Agriculture and the various financial inclusion programmes targeted at increased food sufficiency which appears to have provided some comfort thereby weakening the opposition party negative campaign about job losses and claims of widespread poverty.

6. Public Appeal: While the PDP is doing it best to gain public trust and repositioned itself in the minds of the masses, the APC has successfully branded the PDP and it Presidential candidate as a the Nigeria nightmare, and creating the impression that PDP still represents the ignoble corruption, plunder and misrule it was known in the past. I am of the opinion that It would have greatly been advantageous to PDP if it had re-branded itself. The APC’s message appears to have been particularly successful in the Northern rural areas, where many voters still associate the PDP with a sordid record of corruption and “money sharing”.
Campaign strategy and tactics: Both candidates are keeping up with issue based campaign mix with hate speeches and fake news especially from online warlords.

7. Manifestos: Atiku has a better manifesto than Buhari except in the fight against corruption.

8. Last moment tactics: APC has the incumbent advantage that give the ruling party access to money, security and intelligence, INEC, state treasury. In all, State apparatus including rigging machinery always lies with the incumbent President

9. Alliance and collaboration: Atiku has about 40 small political parties that have formed alliance with the PDP. The are going by the nomenclature of Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP). Buhari have very few political parties that have formed collaboration. The most significant amongst those that have formed alliance is the Social Democratic Party(SDP) and The Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN)

Who will be the next Nigeria President? Looking at the arithmetic of the past presidential polls


What we should consider in the electoral outcome of 2019:

1. In 2003
A. The total valid votes recorded was 42,018,735.
B.Obasanjo scored 61.94% or 24, 456,140 million while Buhari scored 32.19% or 12,710,022 million and Odumegwu Ojukwu scored 3.29% or 1,297,445 .

C. Buhari won in Bauchi,Borno,Gombe,Jigawa,Kano, katsina, kebbi, Sokoto,Yobe and Zamfara

2. In 2007
The contestants and votes where:
A. Umaru Yar'Adua of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) scored 24,638,063 or 69.82%
Muhammadu Buhari of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) Scored 6,605,299 or 18.72%
Atiku Abubakar of Action Congress (AC) scored 2,637,848 or 7.47%

B.Other parties scores between the range of 4000 to 600,000 or a total of 3.91% in a voting.

C. Buhari won in Bauchi,Borno,Gombe,Jigawa, kaduna,Kano, katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara

3. In 2011
The contestants and votes where:
A. Number of vote was 30, 210 million
B.GEJ scored 22, 495m or 58.89%
C. Buhari scored 12, 215m or 31.98%
D. Ribadu(ACN) won in Osun

E. Voters turnout =53.7%
F. Buhari(CPC) won in: Niger, kaduna,kano,Sokoto, kebbi, Zamfara, katsina,Jigawa, Bauchi,Yobe,Gombe, Borno

G. GEJ(PDP) won in: kwara, Ogun, Oyo, Lagos,Ondo, Ekiti,Anambra,Imo, Abia,Ebonyi, Enugu,Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa,Delta, Edo,Adamawa,Taraba, Kogi, Benue,FCT, Plateau and Narrasawa

4. In 2015
The contestants and votes where:
A. Muhammadu Buhari of All Progressives Congress scored 15,424,921 or 53.96%
Goodluck Jonathan of People's Democratic Party scored 12,853,162 or 44.96%

B. While Jonathan won in the South-South and South-East, Buhari won in the South-West, North-Central, North-West and North-East

C. Buhari won in the northern state and progressively increase his winning by state from the North-East through the North-West down to North-Central and finally South-West.

D. He never loss any election in the core Northern states like Sokoto, Kano, Bauchi, Borno etc

E. While the North-West and North-East are Buhari stronghold and he can be seen to have won election with a progressive increase in these two regions, the South-West votes when to Buhari because of Tinubu, the APC governors in the region and the Vice-president who is from SW.

F. The North-Central that was a PDP stronghold was perforated by many PDP heavy-weight cross-carpeting to APC. These include Atiku, Saraki, late Prince Audu, George Akume etc

G. It's instructive to note that GEJ won with over 90% in the SE and SS except Imo and Edo state where APC had governors. In Edo state, with the influence of Adam Oshomole who was the governor in 2015, APC got up to 39.9% of the votes while PDP got 54.9%. In Imo state, the presence of Rochas gave APC 18.2% of the total votes.

F. GEJ(PDP) : Won in 16 states and FCT. There are: Edo, Delta, Bayelsa,Rivers, Akwa Ibom,Cross River, Imo,Enugu, Abia,Ebonyi, Anambra,Plateau, Narrassawa, Taraba, Ekiti

G. Buhari(APC): Won in 20 states won which included: Benue, Kogi, Niger, kwara, Lagos,Ogun, Oyo,Osun, Ondo Kaduna, Kano, Jgawa,Kebbi,Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa.

H. However, it was reported by Channel TV and other reputable media that John Campbell, Former US Ambassador to Nigeria said that "Muhammad Buhari won all the last three elections (2003,2007 and 2011) in Nigeria but was rigged out by the powers that be ". Giving the US benefits of superior intelligence network, hindsight and insight, this statement seem believable. This implies that Buhari would have perhaps finished his 8 years tenure long ago and resting in Daura by now.

Who will be the next Nigeria President ? - How the recent past will determined 2019 polls

The immediate recent stand-alone gubernatorial election and legislative bye-election are another source of objective assessment.

1.In Kano state, APC won in the 2016 bye-election for Kano House of Assembly.

2. APC won the Amaturu/Tarmuwa/Gujba/Gulani Federal constituency in Yobe state in 2016.

3. APC won the Kware/Wamakko Federal Constituency’s bye-election in Sokoto State in 2017

4. APC won the state House of Assembly bye-election in Minjibir in 2016.
5. APC won the Katsina North Senatorial district bye-election in 2018

5.APC won bye-election conducted for Lokoja /Kogi Federal constituency 2018

6.APC won the Ifako-Ijaiye Federal Constituency By-Election in Lagos in 2016.
APC won in Bauchi senatorial by-election 2018

7.APC won the Toro Federal Constituency by-election in Bauchi in 2018.
APC won the Kware/Wamakko Federal Constituency’s bye-election in Sokoto State in 2017

8.APC won the three federal constituencies in Katsina, Kwara, and Bauchi states in 2018
APC won the gubernatorial election in kogi state in 2016

9.APC won in two of the senatorial seat in the re-run election while PDP won a seat in the re-run election in Rivers.

10. APC won the stand-lone gubernatorial election in Edo, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun held between 2017 and 2018.

11. PDP won Ife Central Federal Constituency bye-election in 2016
PDP won Ibarapa East State Constituency by-election in Oyo State in 2018

12. PDP won Obudu State Constituency Bye Election of Cross River Assembly In 2018
PDP won Osun West senatorial bye-election in 2017

13. PDP won Bayelsa governorship election held in 2016

14. The Labour Party won the bye-election for the Oorelope State Constituency of Oyo State in 2016

15. APGA won Anambra governorship election in November 2017

Here, it can further be deduced that APC is still very strong in the North and South-West while PDP is firm in the South-South and South-East. This is yet another indicator to what the Presidential election will be.

Who will be the next Nigeria President? Other unusual electoral outcomes in 2019

1. The presence of Bindow, Buba Marwa, Nuhu Ribadu, Boss Mustapha, Aisha Buhari and Babachir Lawal will make winning very difficult for Atiku in Adamawa state.

2. IPOB sit-at-home order on Feb 16 and the attitude of the South-East regarding voting will further diminished the South-Eastern voting strength where voters turn-out is usually low. This will be to Buhari/ APC advantage.

3. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) has adopted President Muhammadu Buhari as its consensus candidate for the February 16 presidential election.

4. The governors of Anambra who has wide acceptability and popularity in his area and that of Imo will positively influence votes for Buhari. The governor of Anambra state and the PDP Vice-Presidential candidate are not in good terms. The Anambra governor will prefer working for Buhari to continue than have PDP Vice-President who come from the same state with himself and will rather make governance in Anambra very challenging.
Unlike the past SE governors, these set PDP South-East governors have a friendly disposition to Buhari and will not do much to pull the rug from under his feet.

5. With Uduaghan, Omo-Agege and Ogboru in Delta, Amaechi in Rivers, Akpabio in Akwa ibom, Oshiomole and Obaseki in Edo, Ndoma-Egba and Owan-Enoh in Cross River, Timipreye Silver in Bayelsa, APC/ Buhari is likely to perform better in the South-South region.

6. Mobilisation is the best from of voters connection and APC is leading in mobilisation techniques. Other parties can learn from APC especially South-West APC.

7.In 2015 Presidential poll, Buhari scored 2,433,193 in the South-West(SW) region and Jonathan had 1,821,416 in the same region. In 2019, I foresee the APC in this region having more winning votes. I do not expect PDP in South-West zone that is peopled by Obasanjo, Kashimu Buruji,Ayo Fayose, Gbenja Daniel, Bode George, Akin Osuntokun, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Ademola Adeleke coming close in votes to the coordinated APC forces of Tinubu and his stalwart made up of Aregbesola,Osibanjo, Bisi Akande, Omisore and all the present APC governors as well as the APC well-oil machinery in the South-West zone.

8. Also, the recognition of Abiola and June 12 as democracy day in Nigeria as well as the developmental project within the South-West zone initiated by Buhari government with a sizeable number of well-appointed citizen of this regions and above all, an 'Omoluabi' as the current Vice- President, makes the SW region an APC fertile ground for mega votes harvest.

Who will be the next Nigeria President ? What we should expect

Based on my computation and estimation, and giving the underlisted factors which includes: voters demography, past voting trends, performance, mobilisation, zoning of Vice President, recent voters disposition, campaigns strategy, public appeal, publicity and propaganda, regional disposition etc. I am presenting my unbiased forecast of the the forthcoming election results as follows:

North west: Buhari-60% and Atiku-40%
South west: Buhari-65% and Atiku-35%
North Central: Buhari-55% and Atiku-45%
South South: Buhari-40% and Atiku-60%
North East: Buhari-65% and Atiku-35%
South East: Buhari-40% and Atiku-60%

1. In 1999 Presidential election, the registered Voters where 57,938,945 while Voter Turnout was 52.3% and invalid votes was 0.74% and total Valid Votes 98.6%.

2. In 2003 Presidential election, registered Voters was 60,823,022 and total Voters turnout 69.1%. Invalid/Blank Votes was 6.04% while total Valid Votes 93.9% and other candidates votes (outside PDP and ANPP) was 5.85%

3. In 2011 Presidential election, registered voters 73,528,040 and total votes (Voter Turnout) was 53.7% and Invalid/Blank Votes was 3.2% while Total Valid Votes 96.8%. Other candidates (outside of PDP and CPC) was 8.98%

4. In 2015, Presidential election, Registered voters/turnout was 67,422,005 and total vote was total vote cast was 29,432,083 or 43.65% while valid votes was 28,587 or 42.40% and Invalid/blank votes was 844,519 (1.25%)

5. Going by these past result and the Registered Vote of 84M my forecast will be:
Likely voters turnout - 45% or 38M
Likely Invalid vote-1.8%
Expected winning margin - 9M
Expected Buhari votes-23.5M
Expected Atiku votes-14.5M
Other party votes-1.9%

Who will be the next Nigeria President ? The next strategic option

The month of March 2019 will be about the best time to begin to look toward 2023 elections.

Joe Garecht, a renowned election strategist, asserted that “The next campaign begins the day after Election Day. Whether you’re running for an open seat, challenging an incumbent, or trying to get re-elected, now is the time to get started”.

For the PDP, now is the best time for PDP to re-brand, re-tool, reorganise, regeneration, re-focus, re-make and restructure itself before thinking of restructuring Nigeria.

The party must begin now. After the march election, I suggest that the party should summon a broad and all-inclusive stakeholders meeting that will encompass party stalwart, youth, women, their elected governors and senators elected, professionals, elders etc to begin the process of re-making and re-branding the party.

The meeting must be balance and attendees must be allowed to speak to issues bothering on the progress of the party.

The journey to the future elections must begin now. I have learned that four years could be like four month or even four days. Such is the mystery of time.

Late Tony Anenih had advised the PDP thus: “When Buhari’s tenure finishes then we know who takes over from him. When he finishes his tenure there will be more conventions on both sides and God will lead us to choose somebody who will help Nigeria".

PDP should take this thought-provoking counsel from its founding father seriously.
PDP is too significant, pre-eminent and outstanding in its centre-right policies and economic liberalism to descend into the whirlpool of hibernation.

Chinese Proverb defines insanity as "doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result”.

PDP must not be allowed to deteriorate and dilapidated, and become metaphorically deserted just like it uncompleted Abuja headquarters.

For other political parties, I strongly appeal to them to kick-start the process of merger.
It will take more than a coalition or collaboration to dislodge either PDP or APC from power. The opposition must merge-which in itself is a very long and tedious process.


Under a common name and manifesto, they are expected to begin to mobilise for members across the country and among new politicians, professionals, technocrat and academics.

If this merger concept is accepted and faithfully implemented by these political parties, they should reach out to old and veterans politicians and godfathers across the North and South.


They should identify and put to work leaders and mobiliser who will galvanised public interest and mass commitment and support to the new political party.

So far, it is perhaps selfishness and lack of a united front that ruined the chances of the new generation candidates from having a winning-edge advantage in this forthcoming election.

This must not repeat itself in 2023!

Plato concluded that "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors".


The new parties and even older ones must merge and have a new identity and new purpose toward future elections. This is a commanding imperative!

Collaboration for purpose of election does not work in Nigeria and elsewhere.

Those Presidential candidates and party chairmen, some of them I have had intimate relationship with, should convene a forum and work out a template for merging.

They need to amalgamate and begin the process of establishing new identity and manifesto and market thie amalgamated political party to Nigerians across the 8809 wards is compelling.

We need to have atleast three mega parties in Nigeria wherein, power will alternate at all levels.

A blend of governor, senators and House of Representatives from different parties will make our democracy inspiring and appealing, and less mystifying.

That way, no party or elected person will engage in mis-governance or misappropriation because Nigerians will have the means of rewarding that individual or party for the misdeeds.

The words of Charles de Gaulle that "Politics is too serious a matter to be left to the politicians" is truly apt.