hollah123:
U must b highly delusional if u think the northerners will form alliance with the igbos, with the way u people are embarrassing their own. U think a northerner will wake up n dress to the poll only to vote an igbo man. U people remember biafra massacre but u think the northerners have forgotten sardauna n balewa? So because they don't cry about it like u do. With the situation of things on ground n how obvious it is that igbos hate buhari, it will b easy for a Togolese to b the president of the zoo than an igbo man

I can autoritativly tell you that the northern elites have no qualms with the Igbo's. Only the Yoruba's propagate such nonsense. Didn't Atiku pick his VP from the east despite your shenanigans?
Your politics of hate only began bearing fruit in 2015. Where were you lightweights when the north and east were collaborating. Allow the progressives who have been in the terrain do their thing. Your lucky charm expires 2023, unless you change your ways and strengthen the south. Failure to do that sends you back to perpetual opposition of which Buhari won't come back to rescue

hollah123:
U must b highly delusional if u think the northerners will form alliance with the igbos, with the way u people are embarrassing their own. U think a northerner will wake up n dress to the poll only to vote an igbo man. U people remember biafra massacre but u think the northerners have forgotten sardauna n balewa? So because they don't cry about it like u do. With the situation of things on ground n how obvious it is that igbos hate buhari, it will b easy for a Togolese to b the president of the zoo than an igbo man

Igbos were not behind that killing but the lead name looks igbo. This is not obvious to outsiders and they will always be at the receiving end due to this history.

engrchykae:
in reality,the north doesn't hate the igbos,rather its the yorubas that hate igbos with fake smiles and false fellowship in Pentecostal churches

I believe love is what igbos are showing buhari right now? Is that what u call love? U must b dreaming of u think northerners will support u with the way u are treating their own right now

Eastlink:
I can autoritativly tell you that the northern elites have no qualms with the Igbo's. Only the Yoruba's propagate such nonsense. Didn't Atiku pick his VP from the east despite your shenanigans?
Your politics of hate only began bearing fruit in 2015. Were where you lightweights when the north and east were collaborating. Allow the progressives who have been in the terrain do their thing.

My brother leave nairaland lies of the north like igbos
Do u realize there are some places in the north where pdp didn't use Peter obi picture ?simply because an average northerner sees an igbo man as another nnamdi kanu n they will prefer to vote a non Nigerian than igbo
Do u realize many northerners were even tired of buhari reign n they looked up to atiku but the moment he picked an igbo man as VP majority of them decided not to vote again. Bro b4 u argue blindly, call someone in the north to confirm cos majority in nairaland has lost touch with reality. N with the way igbos keep showing that they hate buhari, do u think any northerner will b proud to associate openly with an igbo man during elections? I pray pdp fields an igbo man as president then u will see landslide victory for the opposing party

mrvitalis:

Oga no yoruba president 2023 case closed

Ur wishes.

Eastlink:
I can autoritativly tell you that the northern elites have no qualms with the Igbo's. Only the Yoruba's propagate such nonsense. Didn't Atiku pick his VP from the east despite your shenanigans?
Your politics of hate only began bearing fruit in 2015. Where were you lightweights when the north and east were collaborating. Allow the progressives who have been in the terrain do their thing. Your lucky charm expires 2023, unless you change your ways and strengthen the south. Failure to do that sends you back to perpetual opposition of which Buhari won't come back to rescue

Bro let me ask u a question
Since buhari has been the president, which tribe in Nigeria has insulted him most?
U want the Yoruba's to strengthen the south by supporting the igbos, what have the igbos done to deserve support? Is it buhari that u insult everyday on all social media that will motivate the north to vote for u or tinubu that u insult all day is what will motivate south west to vote for u?
I pray pdp presents an igbo man as president, then u will see landslide victory for apc

isthatso:


You have a choice to take on board what i have said or you can choose to be sentimental. I said it before the 2015 election that PDP will gain nothing by giving peter Obi the ticket but ibos lambasted me and i say it again.... In the current political equation, the Ibo vote is irrelevant. By that i mean an irrelevant vote is a vote that is fixed, a vote that doesnt change. No matter what APC does Ibos will not vote for APC, no matter what PDP does Ibos will vote for PDP, so the Ibo vote does not change the political election math, therefore it is an irrelevant block vote. There is no need to incentivize the Ibos because they will not change their voting pattern. That is the meaning of irrelevance. The Northern vote can be split and the yoruba vote can be split, so they are relevant and need to be incentivized. You dont pay for something that is already yours and you dont waste your money and energy trying to get something that you can never have, that is the irrelevance of the Ibo vote!!!

Anytime the Ibos have been on the winning side, the North has either been one and voted as a block (1999) or the SW also voted with the Ibos, 2003/2007,2011. Once the North is divided and it will be divided in 2023, a divided North cannot win an election partnering with Ibos without yoruba support. 2003, 2007, 2011 had a divided North but had southwest support thats why the Ibo supported party won, once the SW took away it's support in 2015 and 2019, it was impossible for the Ibo supported party to win. the most attractive bride in Nigerian politics now is SW. Like it or not, SW vote is the game changer because the North is divided and will be divided in 2023 because APC is either going to feild a Northern candidate or a SW candidate with Northern support in 2023, whatever the case they will have strong northern support even though they will lose the Buhari factor. You can take on board tor you can be sentimental. Dont say i did not tell you.

you are still living in pre-2011 politics, things have changed my brother, the Ibo vote is an irrelevant vote because it doesnt change anything. PDP wont win because they have it and APC wont lose because they dont have it. The battle ground in 2023 will be North and SW. they are the ones whose votes can change. Even SS is more important than the SE vote.

I won't argue with you again since you claimed to be right. Nonetheless, it beats my imagination when the SW started being a determinant of who wins the presidency. Any region can be a determinant. Yorubas were in the opposition from 1999 to 2015, and their votes never counted because SE, SS and the generality if the North voted for the PDP. As it was for Igbos today, so it was for Yorubas then. They chose to vote mostly for the AD and ACN until 2015 when the APC came. So, it makes no sense to lie or assume unnecessary airs that Yorubas' votes have always been a determinant of who wins the presidential election. Besides, I like Igbos' politics, which some of your people believed that it's good. Igbos believed that Buhari wasn't a performer and that they wouldn't vote for him because of that. Today, they've been justified. Politics is not about being in the "right" party for the sake of producing a president from one's region. It's all about ideology. Since the Yorubas supported Buhari, what has he achieved? That's bad politics. Besides, it's a lie to say that Atiku didn't fare well in the election because of an Igbo man he chose as VP. We all know that Atiku won the election, and the majority of votes he got came from SE, SS, NE, NC and Middle Belt with little coming from SW and NW. Besides, Igbos trouped out enmasse to vote for Atiku in Lagos, but Tinubu used thugs to stop them from voting. So, when you talked of Yorubas being a determinant of who wins the post of the president, I just laughed. Any political alliance of three regions is enough to weaken another region politically. That's how it is.

hollah123:
My brother leave nairaland lies of the north like igbos
Do u realize there are some places in the north where pdp didn't use Peter obi picture ?simply because an average northerner sees an igbo man as another nnamdi kanu n they will prefer to vote a non Nigerian than igbo
Do u realize many northerners were even tired of buhari reign n they looked up to atiku but the moment he picked an igbo man as VP majority of them decided not to vote again. Bro b4 u argue blindly, call someone in the north to confirm cos majority in nairaland has lost touch with reality. N with the way igbos keep showing that they hate buhari, do u think any northerner will b proud to associate openly with an igbo man during elections? I pray pdp fields an igbo man as president then u will see landslide victory for the opposing party

Buhari is not the north. Buhari the god of CPC was demystified in the last election where it took dying minutes rigging to allot him victory. Buhari the political messiah of the Yoruba's is retiring from politics after 2023 and you people should be getting ready to life after him.
After his tenure, he goes home and retires in peace never to be heard again. Igbo's have become political nobody's while the Yoruba's have become the political mavericks of the south all thanks to Buhari.
But it was this same Buhari that couldn't stand toe to toe with names such as Shehu Shagari, Aminu Kano, Shehu Yar'adua not to talk of Umaru Yar'dua in the same north. Where was this Buhari before 2015 when these names had the north in their pouch politically. Maybe he was still rallying the Miyetti Allah. The same Umaru Yar'dua took Buhari to the cleaners in 2007.
Because he defeated a weak GEJ with the joint help of all northerners irrespective of party doesn't elevate him to a godlike status. Because he exalted himself in 2015 after his serial failure doesn't makes his the last President that will emerge from the north.
I wish the SW best of luck after the retirement of Buhari come 2023.

Eastlink:
I can autoritativly tell you that the northern elites have no qualms with the Igbo's. Only the Yoruba's propagate such nonsense. Didn't Atiku pick his VP from the east despite your shenanigans?
Your politics of hate only began bearing fruit in 2015. Where were you lightweights when the north and east were collaborating. Allow the progressives who have been in the terrain do their thing. Your lucky charm expires 2023, unless you change your ways and strengthen the south. Failure to do that sends you back to perpetual opposition of which Buhari won't come back to rescue

Hear yourself.
So North and Igbos have been collaborating all these while even when a Southerner like Awo was on the ballot paper abi.
Why are you now pained that Yorubas are collaborating with same North? Why are you seeing such as betrayal now?
Something must be wrong with you people.

Mandeyy:
I won't argue with you again since you claimed to be right. Nonetheless, it beats my imagination when the SW started being a determinant of who wins the presidency. Any region can be a determinant. Yorubas were in the opposition from 1999 to 2015, and their votes never counted because SE, SS and the generality if the North voted for the PDP. As it was for Igbos today, so it was for Yorubas then. They chose to vote mostly for the AD and ACN until 2015 when the APC came. So, it makes no sense to lie or assume unnecessary airs that Yorubas' votes have always been a determinant of who wins the presidential election. Besides, I like Igbos' politics, which some of your people believed that it's good. Igbos believed that Buhari wasn't a performer and that they wouldn't vote for him because of that. Today, they've been justified. Politics is not about being in the "right" party for the sake of producing a president from one's region. It's all about ideology. Since the Yorubas supported Buhari, what has he achieved? That's bad politics. Besides, it's a lie to say that Atiku didn't fare well in the election because of an Igbo man he chose as VP. We all know that Atiku won the election, and the majority of votes he got came from SE, SS, NE, NC and Middle Belt with little coming from SW and NW. Besides, Igbos trouped out enmasse to vote for Atiku in Lagos, but Tinubu used thugs to stop them from voting. So, when you talked of Yorubas being a determinant of who wins the post of the president, I just laughed. Any political alliance of three regions is enough to weaken another region politically. That's how it is.

Like i said you are still living in the past. The time you are talking about was the mentality of the Awo era which changed in 2011. The SW had always played regional politics but Tinubu changed that by forming an alliance with powerful elements in the North. In so doing creating a force to rival the Ibo North alliance that has been in existence since the days of Azikwe. The time you are talking about was when there were factions, each not strong enough to be a force and so the Ibo alliance with the North always won. once Buhari and Tinubu got together together with ANPP the political equation changed. The Ibo playbook post independence from the time of Zik/Balewa Zik/Shagari to PDP has always been to form an alliance with the North, it worked because the SW generally didnt have any alliances or strong alliances in the North. That playbook no longer works because the SW now has powerful alliances with the north. If you dont recognise that then you are a political novice.

i never said Yorubas have always determined, if you read properly and put your sentiments aside it is clear in my posts I said post 2011 SW became the kingmakers


As far as your other nonsense all of them are self serving fools, the ones that are sincere have no brain or ideas, the ones that do will not be allowed to work, whether APC or PDP, I am simply giving you an objective unbiased analysis of the political terrain, that I am yoruba is neither here nor there. Non of them is going to take us to the promised land. You can remove your bias or you can continue to think with your sentiments.

isthatso:


Like i said you are still living in the past. The time you are talking about was the mentality of the Awo era which changed in 2011. The SW had always played regional politics but Tinubu changed that by forming an alliance with powerful elements in the North. In so doing creating a force to rival the Ibo North alliance that has been in existence since the days of Azikwe. The time you are talking about was when there were factions, each not strong enough to be a force and so the Ibo alliance with the North always won. once Buhari and Tinubu got together together with ANPP the political equation changed. If you dont recognise that then you are a political novice.

i never said Yorubas have always determined, if you read properly and put your sentiments aside it is clear in my posts I said post 2011 SW became the kingmakers

You're the political novice. I never discussed the time of Zik. I mentioned 1999 to 2015 when the SW was mainly in the opposition. The SW has never been a determinant. Rather, I should say that it's the Middle Belt. Despite the rigging that characterised the election in NC, they voted massively for Atiku. It's because the NC didn't vote massively for Jonathan coupled with under-age voting in the NW that made him fail. Jonathan didn't fail because of SW's votes. He just needed few votes from the SW. In 2019 that NC particularly Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Taraba, and even Kogi chose the PDP, despite the rigging, Atiku won the election which everyone knows.

Mandeyy:
You're the political novice. I never discussed the time of Zik. I mentioned 1999 to 2015 when the SW was mainly in the opposition. The SW has never been a determinant. Rather, I should say that it's the Middle Belt. Despite the rigging that characterised the election in NC, they voted massively for Atiku. It's because the NC didn't vote massively for Jonathan coupled with under-age voting in the NW that made him fail. Jonathan didn't fail because of SW's votes. He just needed few votes from the SW. In 2019 that NC particularly Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Taraba, and even Kogi chose the PDP, despite the rigging, Atiku won the election which everyone knows.

My friend dont be a slowpoke, you seem to want to argue with yourself, everything you are repeating I have addressed. Things have changed post 2011. If you like keep using old map to find road that has changed.

EOD

People keep talking about middle belt, have you ever actually looked at the votes to see how many votes are in the middle belt? you will be shocked how irrelevant the middle belt is. most states except plateau there only have 50k votes margin, the middle belt vote is always split. If you think Sw wasnt a major factor in Jonathan's defeat you have just shown your ignorance, Buhari contested 3 times why didnt he win? Look at Jonathan's SW votes in 2007 and his votes in 2011, the swing was in Millions. dont forget if you take 500k votes from your opponent you increase your margin by 1million.

i dont think you understand how this thing works.

Jimasun:

Hear yourself.
So North and Igbos have been collaborating all these while even when a Southerner like Awo was on the ballot paper abi.
Why are you now pained that Yorubas are collaborating with same North? Why are you seeing such as betrayal now?
Something must be wrong with you people.

Nobody is pained. Only that your paternership with the north is like a master slavery relationship.
When an Ekwueme was Vice President in a solely northern NPN dominated party the south wasn't bullied. The sharing of positions was even and the south had more say in government than the north.
The same applied with a neutral Obasanjo heavily backed by the SE/SS/MB. Nobody was schemed out of things.
Even when GEJ was VP to Yar'adua it was as if the south were the ones ruling. Nobody felt inferior or pushed over, not the Niger-Delta, the SW, the SE, the MB and even the north. Equality thrived!
But the for the first that you managed to use your platform to decide the political fate of the country, you showed how hate filled your government is.
Fulani herdsmen and Ruga were empowered by your platform. Federal character became northern character during your platform. The south as far as key positions were concerned were gifted mainly to the SW. Allocating southern slots to your tribesmen was the norm as well as helping to support northern domination and Islamization.
For the first time in the history of this country a certain section of the country were totally marginalized from political and military positions and you jubilated in support if it.
If this is the trait of the kind of undiluted Yoruba Presidency you've been fighting for since the time of Awolowo, then I'm afraid it won't work. Obasanjo Presidency which deviated from the hate filled bolekaja politics you're known to play and of whom you hated him for, may end up being your first and last.
Unless you backtrack from the political Golgotha you're heading to.

isthatso:


My friend dont be a slowpoke, you seem to want to argue with yourself, everything you are repeating I have addressed. Things have changed post 2011. If you like keep using old map to find road that has changed.

EOD

Nothing changed after 2011. Jonathan's defeat was not because of SW votes. I agree that Tinubu supported Jonathan in 2011, but that doesn't mean that it was the sole reason he won the 2011 presidential election. The Middle Belt played a key role in that. If the Middle Belt had voted massively for Buhari then, SW votes would have been Insignificant to make him (Jonathan) win. Every presidential aspirant needs wider consultation and regional alliance because anything can happen on the D day despite political permutation. And that's what Jonathan did then. Buhari even did that in the SE too.

Mandeyy:
Nothing changed after 2011. Jonathan's defeat was not because of SW votes. I agree that Tinubu supported Jonathan in 2011, but that doesn't mean that it was the sole reason he won the 2011 presidential election. The Middle Belt played a key role in that. If the Middle Belt had voted massively for Buhari then, SW votes would have been Insignificant to make him (Jonathan) win. Every presidential aspirant needs wider consultation and regional alliance because anything can happen on the D day despite political permutation. And that's what Jonathan did then. Buhari even did that in the SE too.

You dont win an election by absolute numbers alone, you win an election by margin of victory/losses in marginal or hotly contested states and landslides in your strongholds. The middle belt is irrelevant because except plateau there is no state in the middle belt where the winner won by more than 100k votes, so the net contribution to the total is max 50k. For example the net contribution of Nassarawa to Buhari's vicrory was less than 6000 votes, Adamawa only contributed 33000 to Atiku, Plateau was only 80,000, when you have states contributing margins of 400k, 1m? Like i said I dont think you understand the mathematics of winning elections, it's not the absolute numbers that give you victory. Victory comes from a total of the margin of victory or losses combined.

let me explain this to you, if you have a state with 3 million people and you win by 1,510,000 to 1,480,000, that state is less important because all that state contributes is 30,000. The state with 400,000 voters where 90% will vote for you i.e 360,000 is more important, you can afford to lose 3 to five states by a margin of 50-70k and still be ahead because of that 1 state. So a state where there are only 300-400k voters and the result will only contribute or remove 30k-50k from your total is not important...which is the case in most Middle belt states. they are only important in securing the requirement of 25% in 2/3rds of states.

Eastlink:
Nobody is pained. Only that your paternership with the north is like a master slavery relationship.
When an Ekwueme was Vice President in a solely northern NPN dominated party the south wasn't bullied. The sharing of positions was even and the south had more say in government than the north.
The same applied with a neutral Obasanjo heavily backed by the SE/SS/MB. Nobody was schemed out of things.
Even when GEJ was VP to Yar'adua it was as if the south were the ones ruling. Nobody felt inferior or pushed over, not the Niger-Delta, the SW, the SE, the MB and even the north. Equality thrived!
But the for the first that you managed to use your platform to decide the political fate of the country, you showed how hate filled your government is.
Fulani herdsmen and Ruga were empowered by your platform. Federal character became northern character during your platform. The south as far as key positions were concerned were gifted mainly to the SW. Allocating southern slots to your tribesmen was the norm as well as helping to support northern domination and Islamization.
For the first time in the history of this country a certain section of the country were totally marginalized from political and military positions and you jubilated in support if it.
If this is the trait of the kind of undiluted Yoruba Presidency you've been fighting for since the time of Awolowo, then I'm afraid it won't work. Obasanjo Presidency which deviated from the hate filled bolekaja politics you're known to play and of whom you hated him for, may end up being your first and last.
Unless you backtrack from the political Golgotha you're heading to.

Nonsense.
See epistle without common sense

isthatso:


You dont win an election by absolute numbers alone, you win an election by margin of victory/losses in marginal or hotly contested states and landslides in your strongholds. The middle belt is irrelevant because except plateau there is no state in the middle belt where the winner won by more than 100k votes, so the net contribution to the total is max 50k. For example the net contribution of Nassarawa to Buhari's vicrory was less than 6000 votes, Adamawa only contributed 33000 to Atiku, Plateau was only 80,000, when you have states contributing margins of 400k, 1m? Like i said I dont think you understand the mathematics of winning elections, it's not the absolute numbers that give you victory. Victory comes from a total of the margin of victory or losses combined.

How many did Yoruba contribute from 1999 to 2015, yet the PDP won then? No vote is insignificant for a win. Even 50 votes can make a difference in the winning margin. That's why real politicians canvass for votes seriously in every region. The PDP did poorly in the SW from 1999 onwards, yet they won with the Middle Belt's and others' votes. Give the link of the Middle Belt's votes since you've turned from Igbo to Middle Belt, that their votes are insignificant.

Mandeyy:
How many did Yoruba contribute from 1999 to 2015, yet the PDP won then? No vote is insignificant for a win. Even 50 votes can make a difference in the winning margin. That's why real politicians canvass for votes seriously in every region. The PDP did poorly in the SW from 1999 onwards, yet they won with the Middle Belt's and others' votes. Give the link of the Middle Belt's votes since you've turned from Igbo to Middle Belt, that their votes are insignificant.

These are the links although I am not sure you are interested in knowledge because if you were you could have googled it yourself

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nigerian_general_election

https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-elections-results-idAFLDE73G05B20110418


As you can see in Lagos in 2011 Jonathan had a 1.1 m lead over Buhari (GEJ 1,281,688 v PMB 189,983 ) In 2015 that lead had swung to a loss of 130K (GEJ 632,327 v PMB 792,460)a swing of 1.23 million votes. Considering that Buhari won nationally by 2.4m votes in 2015, Lagos alone contributed almost 1.23 million of that margin. This is lagos alone o, no Ogun,Oyo, Osun Ekiti etc

next time you think SW is not important think again.

It also shows you that you dont need to get 1m votes to overturn a deficit of 1m, all Buhari did was steal 600k votes from Jonathan. Like i said every vote you steal from your opponent is actually 2 votes furher highlighting why it was bad tactics to give Peter Obi the VP slot.

isthatso:


These are the links although I am not sure you are interested in knowledge because if you were you could have googled it yourself

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nigerian_general_election

https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-elections-results-idAFLDE73G05B20110418


As you can see in Lagos in 2011 Jonathan had a 1.1 m lead over Buhari in 2015 that lead had swung to a loss of 130K a swing of 1.23 million votes. Considering that Buhari won by 2.4m votes in 2015, lagos alone contributed almost 1.23 million of that margin. This is lagos alone o, no Ogun,Oyo, Osun Ekiti etc

next time you think SW is not important think again

You mentioned them. That's why I asked you to provide proof. Lagos is dominated by other tribes especially Igbos. So, don't take Lagos votes as Yorubas' votes. And that's why Tinubu disrupted Igbos from voting. Besides, in other Yoruba states, there are Igbos although not that much compared to Lagos. There are also people from other tribes.

Mandeyy:
You mentioned them. That's why I asked you to provide proof. Lagos is dominated by other tribes especially Igbos. So, don't take Lagos votes as Yorubas' votes. And that's why Tinubu disrupted Igbos from voting. Besides, in other Yoruba states, there are Igbos although not that much compared to Lagos. There are also people from other tribes.

Mandeyy

my friend you have the links, do the math for the other states. Anytime one gives you facts you change the story to ethnic driven drivel.

Jonathan still got his 632,327 ibo votes in Lagos but despite the that Buhari still turned Jonathans 1.1 million majority from 2011 to a 130K deficit in 2015, a 1.23m swing in Buharis favour.

That is the power of the swing vote, the power of the SW vote and why taking votes from your opponent is more important than rewarding people whon were already going to vote for you with VP slot. For all the VP ticket he gave peter Obi, PDP actually got less votes than in Anambra than in 2015, so what was the point?

if like listen to sense if you like dont. abeg i'm done with you .

hollah123:
I believe love is what igbos are showing buhari right now? Is that what u call love? U must b dreaming of u think northerners will support u with the way u are treating their own right now

may your guardian angel be like buhari.
a president whose railway project sidelined the entire southeast.
but of course you must be happy.
it gives you lots orgasm.
our opportunity will definitely come and this system will burn.

isthatso:


These are the links although I am not sure you are interested in knowledge because if you were you could have googled it yourself

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nigerian_general_election

https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-elections-results-idAFLDE73G05B20110418


As you can see in Lagos in 2011 Jonathan had a 1.1 m lead over Buhari (GEJ 1,281,688 v PMB 189,983 ) In 2015 that lead had swung to a loss of 130K (GEJ 632,327 v PMB 792,460)a swing of 1.23 million votes. Considering that Buhari won nationally by 2.4m votes in 2015, Lagos alone contributed almost 1.23 million of that margin. This is lagos alone o, no Ogun,Oyo, Osun Ekiti etc

next time you think SW is not important think again.

It also shows you that you dont need to get 1m votes to overturn a deficit of 1m, all Buhari did was steal 600k votes from Jonathan. Like i said every vote you steal from your opponent is actually 2 votes furher highlighting why it was bad tactics to give Peter Obi the VP slot.

You've even proved me right. Apart from Lagos which boasts of a greater number of people from other tribes, Jonathan did not get enough votes from other South Western States. Votes from Imo State were higher than that of Lagos State. And Lagos State's votes must have come from Igbos and other tribes mainly. After Lagos, the third highest votes came from Abia State and the SS. Besides, Middle Belt you said their votes are irrelevant, gave a large chunk of votes particularly Benue, Plateau, Kogi and Nassarawa States. If you study that 2011 presidential election properly, you'll discover that votes that made Jonathan win came from SE, SS, Middle Belt and NE. Jonathan needed only few votes from SW to win. The NW didn't vote much for him, even some states of the NE, yet he won. You see why I said that SW votes didn't determine any presidential election post 2011. From the result, it showed that the North isn't formidable. Buhari won 2015 election because of the merger and under-age voting.

Mandeyy:
You've even proved me right. Apart from Lagos which boasts of a greater number of people from other tribes, Jonathan did not get enough votes from other South Western States. Votes from Imo State were higher than that of Lagos State. And Lagos State's votes must have come from Igbos and other tribes mainly. After Lagos, the third highest votes came from Abia State and the SS. Besides, Middle Belt you said their votes are irrelevant, gave a large chunk of votes particularly Benue, Plateau, Kogi and Nassarawa States. If you study that 2011 presidential election properly, you'll discover that votes that made Jonathan win came from SE, SS, Middle Belt and NE. Jonathan needed only few votes from SW to win. The NW didn't vote much for him, even some states of the NE, yet he won. You see why I said that SW votes didn't determine any presidential election post 2011. From the result, it showed that the North isn't formidable. Buhari won 2015 election because of the merger and under-age voting.

you are clearly not intelligent enough for me to continue this conversation. read my post above again. I have nothing more to say to you,. you either have sense or you dont, A man's mind must be open for knowledge and sense to enter. read my post above again. If you dont get what i am saying your mind is either closed or your IQ is low! In both cases i cant help you.

isthatso:


you are clearly not intelligent enough for me to continue this conversation. read my post above again. I have nothing more to say to you,. you either have sense or you dont, A man's mind must be open for knowledge and sense to enter. read my post above again. If you dont get what i am saying your mind is either closed or your IQ is low!

You're the unintelligent one. You posted the presidential election of 2011, and I used it to prove to you that the people whose votes you said were irrelevant, actually made Jonathan win. That shows that any region is important, and that SW votes do not determine anything! It's you that have low IQ, since you failed to understand that every region counts, and that an alliance of three regions will make SW votes irrelevant. Besides, Lagos is densely populated by Igbos and other tribes, and cannot be a true reflection of SW votes. So, go get sense.

Mandeyy:
You're the unintelligent one. You posted the presidential election of 2011, and I used it to prove to you that the people whose votes you said were irrelevant, actually made Jonathan win. That shows that any region is important, and that SW votes do not determine anything!

you are clearly a m*ron if you can look at figures and cannot deduct properly. Like i said the worst people to engage and people with low IQs and people with closed minds.

How did Jonathan turn a majority of 1.1 million in lagos in 2011 to a deficit of 130k in 2015 when only 700k yorubas voted for him in 2015 and his Ibo brothers still gave him 600k votes, where did the 1.23m swing in Lagos come from?

the day you can explain that is the day you have received sense...or opened your mind!! And thats the day you understand how to win elections!!

engrchykae:
may your guardian angel be like buhari.
a president whose railway project sidelined the entire southeast.
but of course you must be happy.
it gives you lots orgasm.
our opportunity will definitely come and this system will burn.

We know your intention is to burn n scatter everywhere so nobody is testing u with power bro. Na wailing till thy kingdom come b ur case

isthatso:


you are clearly a m*ron if you can look at figures and cannot deduct properly. Like i said the worst people to engage and people with low IQs and people with closed minds.

How did Jonathan turn a majority of 1.1 million in lagos in 2011 to a deficit of 130k in 2015 when only 700k yorubas voted for him in 2015 and his Ibo brothers still gave him 600k votes, where did the 1.23m swing in Lagos come from?

the day you can explain that is the day you have received sense...or opened your mind!! And thats the day you understand how to win elections!!

A Newspaper columnist called Yorubas sophisticated morons. I'm not surprised you re-echoed your name. Just add "sophisticated" to it, because that's what you are .

Mandeyy:
A Newspaper columnist called Yorubas sophisticated morons. I'm not surprised you re-echoed your name. Just add "sophisticated" to it, because that's what you are .

i abused you, i didnt abuse your race. this is what people do when they have reached the limits of their intelligence.

I gave you a simple assignment, i know you are slow so you have till 2023 to work it out

1. In Lagos, Jonathan had majority of 1.1m in 2011, in 2015 he had deficit of 130k, how did he lose 1.23m votes in lagos if only 700k yorubas voted for him and his Ibo brothers maintained their 600k votes?

2. Atiku gave peter Obi VP slot, yet the net contribution of Anambra went down from 640K in 2015 to 490K in 2019 and yet Buhari did not win any significant votes in Anambra. was that a good strategic decision? Would he have been better served giving the VP slot to another zone, like Buhari did in 2015 especially considering question 1 above?

2) Is it wise to pay for something that already belongs to you?

3. Which is more important, a) winning 5 states by an average of 70k each or b) 1 state where you convert 300k voters from your opponent, which gives you a bigger margin and by how much?

4. what does converting 1 vote from your opponent do to your margin?

5. You have N5000 to spend on a voter, assuming once you spend the money it is guaranteed the voter will vote for you, should you spend it on some one who will never vote for your opponent or someone who will otherwise vote for him?

6. When are you going to start thinking with your brain not your emotions and tribal sentiments?


Like i said I know God has not blessed you with much of brain so take your time to work these out, you have plenty of time as SE is not producing a president anytime soon.

isthatso:


you are clearly a m*ron if you can look at figures and cannot deduct properly. Like i said the worst people to engage and people with low IQs and people with closed minds.

How did Jonathan turn a majority of 1.1 million in lagos in 2011 to a deficit of 130k in 2015 when only 700k yorubas voted for him in 2015 and his Ibo brothers still gave him 600k votes, where did the 1.23m swing in Lagos come from?

the day you can explain that is the day you have received sense...or opened your mind!! And thats the day you understand how to win elections!!

Maybe, you should go back to the figure you posted and check it again. I guess you meant that Yorubas gave Buhari over 700k votes while Igbos gave Jonathan over 600k votes in Lagos in 2015, because what Jonathan got from the figure you posted was over 600k votes while Buhari got over 700k votes. Based on that, this is what I have to say: over 700k votes for Buhari in Lagos in 2015 did not come from Yorubas alone while the over 600 votes for Jonathan didn't come from Igbos alone. People were disenchanted with Jonathan's government in 2015 and needed a change. I even championed Buhari's cause in 2015. So many Igbos did the same thing. They were tired of Jonathan. So, it was wrong of you to attribute that over 700 votes to Yorubas. So many Igbos in Lagos voted for Buhari in 2015. Even people from SS contributed to the over 700k votes you talked about. So, the over 700k votes didn't come from Yorubas alone. But 2019 was different because Buhari didn't perform to expectation. So, most Igbos in Lagos refused to vote for him, and that was when Tinubu used thugs to chase Igbo voters away and their votes didn't count again.

Mandeyy:
Maybe, you should go back to figure you posted and check it again. I guess you meant that Yorubas gave Buhari over 700k votes while Igbos gave Jonathan over 600k votes in Lagos in 2015, because what Jonathan got from the figure you posted was over 600k votes while Buhari got over 700k votes. Based on that, this is what I have to say: over 700k votes for Buhari in Lagos in 2015 did not come from Yorubas alone while the over 600 votes for Jonathan didn't come from Igbos alone. People were disenchanted with Jonathan's government in 2015 and needed a change. I even championed Buhari's cause in 2015. So many Igbos did the same thing. They were tired of Jonathan. So, it was wrong of you to attribute that over 700 votes to Yorubas. So many Igbos in Lagos voted for Buhari in 2015. Even people from SS contributed to the over 700k votes you talked about. So, the over 700k votes didn't come from Yorubas alone. But 2019 was different because Buhari didn't perform to expectation. So, most Igbos in Lagos refused to vote for him, and that was when Tinubu used thugs to chase Igbo voters away and their votes didn't count again.

you are all over the place because sense is eluding you. When i first said it you said its because of Ibos in lagos ok, let us take Osun state:


2011 OSUN GEJ 188,409 Buhari 6,997 ACN 299,711 GEJ defeated Buhari by 182K votes

2015 OSUN GEJ 249,929 Buhari 383,603 GEJ lost by 133k

damage to GEJ and gain by Buhari Buhari in Osun total 315K (182K +133K)


Ogun state

2011 OGUN GEJ 309,177 PMB 17,654 ACN 199,555 GEJ defeated Buhari by 292K
2015 OGUN GEJ 207,950 PMB 308,290 GEJ lost by 103k

Damage to GEj and gain By Buhari in OGUN 395K (103+292)

i havent even factored Ondo,Ekiti. Oyo and already if you add lagos SW already accounts for 2m of Buharis 2.4 margin in 2015 compared to 2011.

is this thing becoming clear to you? Keep shouting middle belt there, No middle belt state gave Buhari these kinds of margin changes, the states he won in the North he won already the times he lost. Buhari won by 2.6M in 2015, if the southwest voted the same way as in 2011 he would have lost. Look at his 2011 results he already had big margins in the North but still lost. Katsina, Kano, Gombe Bauchi, Borno, Niger,Kebbi,Kaduna, Buhari won all by huge margins in 2011 but still lost. 2015 was all about the SW swing, you better beleive it!!!!

isthatso:


These are the links although I am not sure you are interested in knowledge because if you were you could have googled it yourself

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nigerian_general_election

https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-elections-results-idAFLDE73G05B20110418


As you can see in Lagos in 2011 Jonathan had a 1.1 m lead over Buhari (GEJ 1,281,688 v PMB 189,983 ) In 2015 that lead had swung to a loss of 130K (GEJ 632,327 v PMB 792,460)a swing of 1.23 million votes. Considering that Buhari won nationally by 2.4m votes in 2015, Lagos alone contributed almost 1.23 million of that margin. This is lagos alone o, no Ogun,Oyo, Osun Ekiti etc

next time you think SW is not important think again.

It also shows you that you dont need to get 1m votes to overturn a deficit of 1m, all Buhari did was steal 600k votes from Jonathan. Like i said every vote you steal from your opponent is actually 2 votes furher highlighting why it was bad tactics to give Peter Obi the VP slot.

I'm lost on the "swing of 1.23 million votes". Explain.

Mandeyy:
I'm lost on the "swing of 1.23 million votes". Explain.

see your life, now you are humbling yourself.


there are 2 types of voters. Peoiple who have never voted and people who change votes (people who swing from one side to another), the swing voter is more important because he does double damage.

i gave an example but i guess you were to busy to see the point of what I was saying.

if there are 6 voters and only 5 vote and your opponent is leading you by 3:2 you are better off convincing 1 voter from your opponent than trying to convince the guy who normally does not vote. because if you take one swing vote from your opponent, he now has 2 and you have 3, i.e the net effect is double, wheras if you convinved the 6th guy who doesnt vote to vote, the best you will do is to tie at 3:3.

This is the reason why 600k SW swing voters in Lagos turned GEJ's majority of 1.1m in lagos to a deficit of 1.2m in 2015. because the effect is doubled! You are adding to your total and subtracting from your opponent's.

I hope you can now see why I said it was a bad move to give peter Obi the VP slot. He doest attract swing voters, which is what Atiku needed.