Aloy+Emeka:

2011: Governors who may not return • The intrigues and plots
By HENRY UMAHI

Sunday, October 24, 2010
Even as political parties are awaiting the amended timetable of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the battle for the control of the soul of various states in the country promises to be interesting and intriguing. Indeed, as the 2011 elections draw closer, the incumbent governors are strategising and scheming to maintain their hold on power while forces aiming to unseat them are building alliances and mobilising for that purpose.

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Chime, Ohakim, Sylva, Shinkaffi




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Apart from the governors who are constitutionally barred from continuing in office, having spent two terms of eight years, some of those serving their first term of four years may not return in 2011. Even some of the governors, whose term will expire next year but are angling to enthrone their protégé, may not succeed in their plans.

Saturday Sun investigations revealed that the shock, which will trail the exercise, will reverberate in all the geo-political zones in the country and across parties.

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Fashola

Babatunde Fashola

In Lagos State, Governor Babatunde Fashola’s fate hangs in the balance. This is despite the fact that he has towered above most of his colleagues in terms of performance. Indeed, since he came into office in 2007 on the platform of the Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), he has demystified governance, by what he has been able to accomplish. He has transformed the Centre of Excellence in the area of infrastructural development.

However, Fashola’s fate appears sealed by the forces desperately determined to deny him the ticket of the ACN and, therefore, deny him the platform to pursue his re-election aspiration. Ordinarily, Fashola could have moved to another party to seek his political salvation, should the ACN deny him the opportunity of re-contesting on its platform in 2011, but he does not seem to have the political structure to actualize such ambition.

Moreover, the forces against him are so entrenched in the politics of Lagos and do not want to have anything to do with him again. It was gathered that the forces, which are in the party and House of Assembly, have foreclosed the option of impeaching him, which was earlier considered. However, they want to make sure that the governor does not get a re-election ticket.

Since opposition appears dead in Lagos, those against Fashola’s comeback bid are confident that if ACN denies him ticket, that would be his end politically.

Sources revealed that those, who do not want Fashola to return, have compiled a dossier on him, which they intend to present to the caucus that would decide who would be the standard bearer of ACN. With such dossier, it was gathered that the group would ask Fashola to honourably decline from seeking re-election.

However, it was learnt that the governor is making efforts to appease the godfathers of ACN, particularly former governor of the state, Senator Bola Tinubu. Sources revealed that he has solicited the assistance of Oba of Lagos, Oba Akiolu 11, to plead on his behalf. Three weeks ago, Oba Akiolu invited Tinubu and Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Hon Ikuforiji, in this regard.

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Theodore Orji
Theodore Orji

Although the Abia State governor, Theodore Orji was received into the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by President Goodluck Jonathan and all the big names in the party, it would take a miracle for him to remain as governor after the 2011 election. Since he came into office in 2007, Abia has tottered on the brink. Apart from his government’s inability to deliver verifiable dividend of democracy to the people of Abia State, the security concerns in the state have put him on the spot. For a while, Aba, the commercial nerve centre of the state, has been a lawless city, where kidnappers, robbers and sundry criminals run riot unchallenged. The situation is such that doctors, banks, market associations and schools have had to close shop for weeks because venturing out at Aba could be one big risk.

Again, Orji’s naivety in political strategy appears obvious, as demonstrated by his penchant for jumping from one political party to another. Elected on the platform of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA), he had defected to All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the PDP within three and half years. In PDP, it is doubtful if he would get the ticket to contest the 2011 governorship election. PDP members, like the former deputy governor of the state and now serving senator, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe; Chief Henry Ikoh and Chief Onyema Ugochukwu are believed to be interested in the seat. To make matters worse, the governor has parted ways with his godfather, former governor Orji Uzor Kalu, who single-handed installed him in his present position. The PPA is also fielding a candidate in the governorship election.



ABIA REUNION
     26 MBONU OJIKE STREET, UMUAHIA,ABIA STATE.
UNDERSTANDING THE POLITICAL RE-ALIGNMENT IN ABIA STATE

[b]Nothing in magnitude, depth and significance can compare with the ongoing realignment of political forces in Abia State.  By a stroke of hand of providence and acute concern for the future of the state, almost all the political gladiators have found a comfortable home in the Peoples Democratic Party. Feuds of many years, unending spite and self–serving competition among otherwise illustrious Abia sons and daughters, which robbed the state of development, have been dissolved with every progressive mind being confident, and eager to face the future. This was beyond their imagination when the Kalu family with designs on building a dynasty, held the political structures and institutions in the State in vice grip.

To lend perspective to the above and help us understand the quantum of change taking place in Abia, let us recall what was. The misadventure of former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu and his family into the Abia politics in 1999 left Abia fractured from the beginning of the fourth Republic. Once elected into office, he moved to weaken both manifest and latent opposition. All the institutions of democracy were destroyed. The Judiciary, Civil Society and even the political party that elected him were supplanted by the personal vicious organisation code-named Reality Organisation. The group known as the R.O had Abia in a stranglehold. You could not be admitted into colleges or employed in the Civil Service if you were not a member. The leaders of all associations, market unions, and councils were forced to belong to the R.O which was run by the mother of former governor Kalu. Such was the grip, that even contractors paid dues to the R.O. Thugs that reported to either the former governor, his mother or brother were every where to enforce compliance.

On the larger political front, the division was so deep and total that it was anathema to greet eat and drink with a member of the other political party. It did not matter if they were members of the same family, school mates or friends. Tension pervaded so much that those who were not in the some party as the former governor and his mother hardly spent time in the state.

Curiously, this set a pattern and template for relationship in the other parties. Take the PDP for example, the Party had one Executive Committee for sure. However, if there were fifteen persons in that Executive, they represented over five factions that were seemingly silent, but had vicious codes of loyalty which drove them to check-mate each other. Yet they belonged to the same party. The spite in the heart of the foot soldiers was repeatedly fertilized by the contempt with which they saw their principals treat their rivals.

Chief Ojo Maduekwe and Chief Onyema Ugochukwu were not in talking terms for years. The spite was so total that in Abuja where they lived on the same street at the time Ugochukwu ran for the governorship election, both men never spoke so much to each other. At the same, Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, Ojo Maduekwe and Onyema Ugochukwu had their own beef. So when Ugochukwu lost the governorship, he felt that Maduekwe and Ogbulafor did not back him.
Sadly, the opportunity for pay-back came swiftly. Ogbulafor had hardly settled down as chairman of PDP when Onyema Ugochukwu, Senator Adolphus Wabara, Maduekwe and others that joined the group that is alleged to have shot him down. Humiliated and hounded out of office, Ogbulafor’s men began to re-organise for another showdown especially as it was rumoured that Ugochukwu was warming up for anther shot at the governorship.

On the sidelines were the Ngwa group marshalled by Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe who continued to press that the Ngwa failure to clinch the governorship was no longer acceptable. On the other flank was the emerging rift between Governor Theodore Orji and former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu. Forces loyal to the former governor led by former Deputy Governor Comrade Chris Akomas were beginning to openly undermine Ochendo to pave the way for Akomas to run for governorship under the PPA.

This is a slide of the dangerous stage for the 2011 elections in the state before the hand of God intervened. The intervention was by giving Governor Theodore Orji the courage to stand up and defy the Kalu dynasty. He gave Ochendo the rare courage to risk his life and career to severe links with the Kalu family which had for years been the hidden hand and mouth despoiling the resources of the state. By the stroke of Ochendo’s action and his rare courage, he cut off the root of the weed that has sapped the life of the state for a very long time.

As all Abians know, Abia made a wrong turn in 1999 by thrusting its future into the hands of Kalu and his mother –two megalomaniacs and opportunists driven by a sadistic ambition to dominate Abia. Though they had no clue about how to govern, they chose to attack the tangible and intangible resources of the state. The rot in Abia State is a testament to their designs on the state. The four years of Ochendo’s administration has been a struggle by the governor to fight off and rupture the plans of the family to create a dynasty. The struggle which was quiet for a long time because of Governor Orji’s gentility was blown open by Kalu’s own crudity and bravado. The rest as they say is history now as the governor has found a new home in PDP where he is now leader of the party in the state.

The governor is making the most of this victory by avoiding the mistakes of the former governor. He has moved to reconcile with all the gladiators especially the leaders whom his predecessor and ally hurt, but who initially were wont to transfer their hatred to him. He and Chief Ugochukwu have forgiven each other, and are working together. He has also embraced Senator Abaribe who Orji Uzor Kalu fought and pushed out of government as his erstwhile deputy. At the time of the long-drawn quarrel between Kalu and Abaribe, Ochendo was Chief of Staff.

Prince Ogbulafor. Prince B.B.Apugo, Tony Ukasanya and a host of others are now working with the governor. Such is the wholesomeness of the reconciliation that the governor has appointed his erstwhile antagonist Chief Tony Ukasanya as the Director-General of his Campaign Organisation. There are others like Dr. Eme Okoro, Ugochukwu right-hand man who is now in-charge of strategy in the governor’s campaign outfit. A few weeks ago, nobody would have imagined that Abia State was capable of achieving this level of reconciliation and political calm. Indeed, everybody is in one wagon now.

The significance of these is delicious. They point the way to the future of Abia. The connection is straightforward. With the level of insecurity and crisis in Abia State, political contests as we know them in Abia in the past would have been disastrous. The unity of the political class means that politicians have chosen development over politics. The impending end of unnecessary bickering and feuds in the state means that there is an opportunity to mobilise all men, women and resources to develop the state. That is already happening. Recent appointments into the state Executive Council reflected all the spectra of Abia politics. Moreover, the calibre of people in that cabinet represents some of the best, young and skilled minds in the state. Such was never heard of under former Governor Kalu, because the mother who held charge had to appoint her ilk. But that is not the case with Ochendo now, because he appears determined to develop the state.

Along same lines, in furtherance of his single-minded pursuit of peace so as to drive his programmes, the governor has built a synergy with the National Assembly members from the state. They in turn have pledged to work with him to develop the state. With the successful realignment of political forces and the restoration of law and other, the governor has set the stage for the take-off of Abia State. It is hoped that the forth-coming elections will not upset this environment which the governor has worked so hard to bring about.

Kingsley Imaga                                                  [/b]








Aliyu Shinkafi
Aliyu Shinkafi

Alhaji Aliyu Shinkafi is not likely to return as governor of Zamfara State in 2011 because of a number of factors. To start with, he is engaged in an endless battle of wits with his predecessor, Senator Yerima. The conflict between the two former allies has reached a point where reconciliation is no longer feasible. The 2011 election presents Yerima the opportunity to attempt to get his pound of flesh. Considering the fact that Yerima is a grassroots politician, with a large, cult-like followership in Zamfara State, he may easily teach Shinkafi the political lesson of his life.

Furthermore, the fact that Shinkafi is supporting the presidential ambition of his father-in-law, General Ibrahim Babangida (retd) on the platform of the PDP makes it even more difficult for him. There is doubt that the PDP would make him its standard bearer in next year’s election because of the President Goodluck Jonathan factor. Sources said that this is why he, recently, started praising Jonathan, as a way of appeasing him.

Another factor that will work against Shinkafi is that he is in the bad book of former National Security Adviser, Gen Aliyu Gusau, a prominent indigene of the state, who is also nursing a presidential ambition on the platform of the PDP. The conflict between both men has polarised the PDP in the state. Still, indigenes of the state are peeved that Shinkafi is backing Babangida rather than Gusau.

Alhaji Ahmed Ahmed, a public affairs analyst, summed up the mood in Zamfara State thus: “Governor Shinkafi has disappointed the people of Zamfara State by not supporting our son and brother, Gen Aliyu Gusau, in his quest to be president. We are disappointed that he is supporting another person because of a woman. But we will express our feelings at the polls. In fact, if Shinkafi is nursing the ambition of remaining our governor in 2011, he should forget it. We will teach him a lesson with our votes.”

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